I need 6 points from Starks/Jones/Maclin in the 4th quarter to avoid going 0-3 in my work league. Let's Do This!

UPDATE: Big Play for James Jones ties it up. A tie is better than a loss, but I need a win. 12 minutes to get a point.

I came into tonight projected to lose. I needed 31 from Starks/Jones/Maclin. In the 2nd quarter I was projected to finish with 72 points. Maclin had 0. Jones had maybe 5. And then they both turned it on. No team in this league is 3-0, so I'm only one game back now at 1-2.

True Story: If I had gone with projections and played Lamar Miller over James Jones I would have finished with 86 and lost.

When I was maybe 7 or 8, I had a thought: At halftime, no game is truly out of reach. Because even if you're losing huge, to tie the game, all you'd have to do is do to the other team what they just did to you.

In case that's not clear. Say it's 31-3 at the half. If you score 31 in the second half and hold them to 3, you'll get to overtime. And you know that's possible because they just did that to you.

What 7 or 8 year old me didn't realize, is that if you're losing 31-3, it's probably because that team is much better than you.

One of my favorite Chiefs-Broncos memories came in a loss.

MNF Prediction

So normally, the Chiefs playing on Monday Night Football, I get all ramped up. This time, I haven't really been looking forward to it. Because it's the Packers at Lambeau. Even though the Broncos were 6-0 against the Chiefs coming into last week, I believed the Chiefs had a good shot against them at home. But the Packers? On the road? This is our toughest game on paper all year. So I don't really expect the Chiefs to win.

So here's the prediction: the Chiefs make one or two plays that suck me in to believing that they have a chance to win. Perhaps they take the lead in the second quarter, 10-7 or 17-14, something like that. And I get all excited. The Packers probably take the lead before halftime, but it's still close. Say 14-10 Packers at the half. Close enough that I'm still emotionally invested. And then by the end of the game it's Packers by double digits. Packers 30, Chiefs 20.

Bonus Prediction: Brittany said the number 34 will be big. She thinks that's the winning score. She also said Packers will win. Final answer from her: 34-20. Not that far off from mine. For what it's worth, in case 34 is actually a player number, the only 34 in the game is Knile Davis.

Illinois-MTSU Recap

In case anyone wasn't able to watch the Illinois game today, I thought I'd recap a few things.

After scoring on the opening possession, Illinois held a 7-3 lead in the 2nd quarter. With the ball on the MTSU 20, Illinois missed a 38-yard field goal. However, on the ensuing possession, the Illini defense forced a 3 and out, blocked the punt and recovered it in the end zone. 14-3 Illinois.

The next MTSU drive resulted in a punt, but instead of taking a fair catch, Illinois let the ball be downed at the 1-yard-line. Next play: safety. Two plays later: 63-yard touchdown for MTSU. All of a sudden it's 14-12 Illinois.

Late in the 2nd quarter, the Illinois defense comes up big again. They force and return a fumble to the MTSU 11. Illini offense can't cash in and they settle for a field goal. Halftime: 17-12 Illinois.

With a 3rd and 4 on the MTSU 20, Wes Lunt takes a 17-yard sack, pushing Illinois out of field goal range. They punt instead.

Next possession, Illinois drives to 1st and 10 from the MTSU 12. Three plays later brings up 4th and 2 from the 4, nursing a 5-point lead. Illinois sends out backup QB Chayce Crouch, who had already converted a 4th down keeper earlier in the game. Before snapping it, Illinois calls timeout. This time they send out Wes Lunt...and call another timeout. Then they keep Lunt on the field who throughs an incompletion. Two timeouts burned, no points earned.

Illinois D forces another punt and on the ensuing drive, freshman running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn takes a touchdown and extends the lead to 24-12.

Both teams exchange punts and Illinois heads to the 4th with a 12-point lead.

MTSU gets down to the Illinois 24 with a 4th and 4 coming up. Down 12, they decide to go for it. They complete a 5-yard pass. Three plays later, they're in the endzone only down 5.

On the next drive, Illinois picks up three first downs but punts from midfield. MTSU takes over on their own 19, with 9 minutes to go.

At this point, the Illinois defense had already forced 8 punts on the day. But now the crowd was out of it, the defense gassed. On 3rd and 10, MTSU completed a 22-yard pass for a touchdown. They had their first lead of the game with just over 4 minutes to go. 25-24 MTSU.

Wes Lunt connects with Geronimo Allison for 26 yards, bringing up a 1st and 10 at the MTSU 36. At this point the announcers were talking about Illinois slowing down to not give MTSU too much time on the clock. And then 3-yard run, incomplete, incomplete. And now it's 4th and 6 from the MTSU 32. Just over 2 minutes to go. It would be a 51-yard field goal attempt for the kicker that missed from 38 earlier and struggled last year. Or they could try and convert 4th and 6. Or they could punt, but they only had one timeout, having burnt two on that failed goalline play. What do you do?

Cubit sends out the kicker.

The kick is up, it has the distance, and it's through. Illinois up 27-25 with 2 to play.

Now the crowd is fired up. The defense has it's energy back.

Incomplete. Incomplete. Incomplete. 4th and 10 from their own 25. Game on the line and it's a 16-yard completion. Next set of downs and it's now 4th and 3 from near mid-field. They convert again. 1st and 10 from the ILL 46. About a minute to go. And they're trying to get into field goal range. On first down they try a surprising run, but lose three. On the next play, there it is...a 20-yard completion to the ILL 29. They gain three more yards on the ground and call timeout with 8 seconds left. It's a 43-yard field goal to win it.

Illinois looked in control for most of the game and now they can only watch as this Conference USA team came back double digits in the 4th and lines up to kick the game winner. And then that son of a bitch pushes the kick just wide of the uprights.

Is this the first week of June or the last week of September?

According to the ESPN expert rankings, I should be starting Lamar Miller over James Jones. But because I am a Chiefs' fan, I know better. Even though the Chiefs have a great defense, James Jones will do very well because this is how things work.

Game of the Year

This is the home opener, a primetime game, and the first home game for Eric Berry.

Since Peyton was traded to Denver, the Chiefs are 0-6 against the Broncos.

This is the one shot the Chiefs have to beat them at home this year.

To win the division, you gotta take down the champs.

Winner goes to 2-0 and leads the other team.

I'd love to shut up my co-workers.

Fuck the Broncos.

This is the stupidest thing and I can't stop laughing at it. 

holy shit, is it 5776 already?

To celebrate, I went down to my local kosher deli and picked up one of these. Got a little frustrated when they wouldn't serve a chocolate milk on the side. What ever happened to the customer is always right? 

I'm pretty excited because this will be the first year I see the Chiefs play in the Super Bowl.

goddamnit flacco

Chiefs go from 12th to 7th in FiveThirtyEight's formula.

This was a huge win. First, it's a road win. If you go 7-1 at home, 4-4 on the road, that's playoffs. So starting 1-0 on the road is a great start to going 4-4 on the road.

The Chiefs have the home opener against the Broncos on Thursday night. Win that one, take the division lead and things are looking good.

Illinois is ranked 37th in the Coaches Poll

Been a while since there's been any good news to report on Illinois Football. I realize they've played crap teams, but they've looked a lot worse playing crap teams in years past. They open as 7.5 point underdogs on the road at North Carolina.

just bought flight + tickets to see chiefs in super bowl 50

More Rocket League

So my last post was five separate highlights, this is the end of one game. The games are 5 minutes long: we pick up the action up 4-3 with just over a minute to go. Be sure to stick around for the goal at the 2:30 mark, which I think is might highest difficulty shot in the game so far.

Big Ten Commercial

I think this is the best University/Conference commercial I've ever seen. They sure could have shown more Illinois stuff though, give us the Morrow Plots, State Farm Center, something...

Rocket League Highlights

Long-time viewers will know that I've been uploading Supersonic Acrobatic Rocket Powered Battle Cars highlights since 2008. Well, there's a sequel on the PS4 which may or not have been the main reason I got the system in the first place. It's called Rocket League and it's basically exactly the same foundation with a new look and some new modes, including a season with playoffs. Here are some plays from my first week.








So they notify you when you get a save, which is what it sounds like. There's a separate notification for "epic saves" which occur on the goal line. Here's an example:



So this was a championship game in the playoffs after a 9-week regular season. Tied with ten seconds to go.

Madden 16: PS4 Highlight

So I got a PS4. One of the cool features is how easy it is to record and share gameplay moments. Also, it's not an output of a replay editor--it's literally as I saw it on my screen. So in the clip below you can see how I start the play as Derrick Johnson and then switch--as Manning starts his throw I hit switch hoping to take control of someone in the secondary, but it briefly switches me to #70 Mike DeVito--and then at the :05 mark I switch to Eric Berry. You can see the route I take to get the ball. And then at the :09 mark you can see at the top of the screen that it credited me with a "user pick"--(meaning that I controlled the interception as opposed to controlling a different player while the pick happens.)




Bonus Fun Fact: At the very end of the clip you can hear the announcer say: "The Chiefs will use a timeout here, early in the second half." Obviously, the clock was already stopped on a change of possession and I had no interest in stopping the clock anyways. I accidentally called timeout trying to hit the share button.

Man vs Machine: 2015 NFL Predictions vs Five Thirty Eight [A Modern Day John Henry]

On September 5th, I made my team-by-team NFL predictions.

A few days later, FiveThirtyEight released their own, based on ELO ratings.

Since their link will be updated throughout the season, I'm posting their original numbers (I found a cached version before the Patriots' win over the Steelers on Thursday night) below. I will do standard rounding on their predictions.

Five Thirty Eight Original 2015 NFL Predictions

AFC East
Patriots 11-5
Bills 9-7
Dolphins 8-8
Jets 7-9

AFC North
Ravens 9-7
Steelers 9-7
Bengals 8-8
Browns 6-10

AFC South
Colts 10-6
Texans 9-7
Titans 5-11
Jags 5-11

AFC West
Broncos 10-6
Chiefs 8-8
Chargers 8-8
Raiders 5-11

NFC East
Cowboys 10-6
Eagles 9-7
Giants 8-8
Washington 5-11

NFC North
Packers 10-6
Lions 9-7
Vikings 7-9
Bears 6-10

NFC South
Panthers 9-7
Saints 8-8
Falcons 8-8
Bus 6-10

NFC West
Seahawks 11-5
Cardinals 8-8
49ers 8-8
Rams 7-9

I think it would be interesting to calculate both:
1. Total number of games actual vs predicted
2. Number of teams closer

Skateboarding: Night 4

So I swear, this ramp feels a lot steeper than it looks. The first two nights I was on my board, I couldn't do it. I would jump off before I fell. The third night I had to find a different spot because the lights weren't on at this one. But it felt pretty good to hit this tonight--a clear sign that I'm making progress.

And since Niraj asked last time, the logo at the end is Element. They make the deck I bought and they have a team that does rad shit like this.

2015 NFL Predictions

AFC East
Patriots 12-4
Dolphins 10-6
Bills 7-9
Jets 4-12

AFC North
Ravens 11-5
Steelers 11-5
Browns 9-7
Bengals 7-9

AFC South

Colts 12-4

Texans 8-8

Jaguars 5-11

Titans 3-13

AFC West

Chiefs 10-6

Broncos 10-6

Chargers 8-8

Raiders 6-10

AFC Playoff Seeds

1 Patriots

2 Colts

3 Ravens

4 Chiefs

5 Steelers

6 Broncos

NFC East

Eagles 11-5

Giants 9-7

Cowboys 8-8

Washington 2-14

NFC North

Packers 13-3

Vikings 9-7

Lions 6-10

Bears 4-12

NFC South

Saints 9-7

Panthers 8-8

Falcons 7-9

Bucs 5-11

NFC West

Seahawks 13-3

Rams 8-8

Cardinals 7-9

49ers 4-12

NFC Playoff Seeds

1 Seahawks

2 Packers

3 Eagles

4 Saints

5 Giants

6 Vikings

AFC Conference Championship

Patriots over Ravens

NFC Conference Championship

Seahawks over Eagles

Super Bowl

Seriously, a rematch of last year? That's not going to happen. Let's go with Packers over Chiefs, a repeat of Super Bowl I. 

Pondering NFL predictions. I feel like the Broncos will go 10-6 or 11-5. Chiefs could go anywhere from 7-9 to 13-3. 9-7 or 10-6 feels pretty safe...11-5 or 12-4 seems really optimistic, but it could happen. It feels totally possible for the Chiefs to win the division, but after what I just broke down, do I have think the Chiefs actually end up with a better record than the Broncos?

Skateboarding: Night 1