2017 Best Picture Prediction

A year ago, I predicted Best Picture. Afterwards I revealed my strategy based upon the Inverse Awesome Theory. The theory goes the more awesome a film is the less likely it is to win Best Picture.

The one thing I know is that Arrival will not win Best Picture. It's a very good film but more than that, it has some awesome moments and an awesome premise. Zero chance it wins. 

So that leaves three candidates: Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and La La Land. 

A case could be made for all of them to not be awesome, but first I will rule out Moonlight. Just based on the description, it seems like there might be a little bit of awesome in there. 

So now it's down to La La Land or Manchester by the Sea. The first one is a jazz musical with white people. The second includes a house fire. 

And the winner of the 2017 Best Picture is La La Land!


Post-Oscars Edit: So that theory looked good for a second there, eh?

So I got this one wrong. In pre-Oscars predictions I am now 1/2 for with this theory.

But, I think the theory actually holds up super great. The problem is that within the Best Picture category there are enough movies without awesome stuff (car chases, guns, aliens) that the theory is not going to be flawless in picking the winner. It is flawless in picking the non-winners. Hacksaw Ridge and Arrival had no chance in my theory--that was borne out.

But this is the biggest thing...the thing that has been nagging at me. If I had really listened to my theory, I wouldn't have picked La La Land.

Because...I have a crush on Ryan Gosling. Specifically, Ryan Gosling in Crazy Stupid Love. I know, I know. But when I saw the first trailer that said it was from the same director as Whiplash and had Ryan Gosling, it sounded kind of appealing. Not full on awesome like Mad Max but it seemed like kind of a fun time. And the truth is I picked it because it was such an overwhelming favorite. I went with the chalk because I thought the chalk would be right. But I should have at least listened to my gut and not picked La La Land.

Truthfully, I thought Manchester by the Sea was the least awesome based on the plots and that was my gut guess. 

Believable

So when you're writing a piece of fiction you usually want it to be believable. So if you are describing a situation, you want the internal logic to check out. But with a few things in our society, I feel like it doesn't.

You would think that the people against guns and the people against abortion would be the same people. (To be clear, I'm not trying to make the point that one side is bad/good or right/wrong. Just that it would seem to be more believable that there's one side who prioritizes the sanctity of life and another side who prioritizes civil liberties.)

You would think the people most concerned about terrorism (enough to ban refugees) would be the people in big cities who have experienced terrorism or likely to be a target of terrorism.

You would think the people most concerned about terrorism (enough to ban refugees) would be the same people who don't want guns.

You would think that celebrities who have lots of money and fame would be more likely to favor the politicians that give bigger tax cuts to the wealthy and less likely to be social activists.


I'm just saying. Whoever wrote the script for humanity, sometimes it's not very believable.

I got tired of seeing that headline at the top of the page so here's something better to look at.