Breaking down the movie "Draft Day"

This post is about the 2014 film Draft Day, including major spoilers.

I watched Draft Day last night. Before I can break down the football trades, I need to make a few comments about the film itself. The movie depicts the 2014 NFL Draft. The first problem is that the Seahawks own the #1 pick and need a quarterback. If you live in reality, you know that Seattle actually won the Super Bowl with Russell Wilson and was drafting #32 in the draft. Okay, so we're dealing with a fictional NFL, I suppose and Russell Wilson doesn't exist and the Seahawks stink. Fine. Except...when talking about presumptive #1 pick Bo Callahan, they say he's the most surefire QB since Andrew Luck...who was drafted in 2012 with Russell Wilson.

So the fictional NFL the movie takes place in is actually a Seattle dystopia where Andrew Luck exists but Russell Wilson does not. (The movie began filming in May 2013 after Wilson's rookie Pro Bowl season. Presumably the script was written before the writer realized Wilson would be good. I get it.)

So at the beginning of the movie, the Seahawks need a QB and all the experts say that Callahan is the obvious slam dunk choice. The Browns have the 7th pick. They went 6-10 in 2013, but were 5-1 before their QB Brian Drew got injured. Based off of that record, I'll infer that Brian Drew is roughly equivalent to Tony Romo. Drew has been rehabbing in the offseason, squatting 400 and throwing 15 yards farther down the field. So the Browns coach is happy with his QB and wants a new RB, Jennings, to run his offense. But there are injury question marks. The Owner wants to make a splash. The GM is considering going after Callahan, based around the premise that he is an Andrew Luck type QB that can turn a franchise around. The other player that the Browns are talking about is Vontae Mack, a linebacker from Ohio State.

One of the major problems with this movie is that it only introduces us to those 4 players. Jennings, Mack, Callahan and Drew. On the morning of the draft, the GM writes a note to himself. He doesn't show it to the audience until the end of the movie, but it has a players name followed by No Matter What. He then proceeds to trade with the Seahawks, getting the #1 pick by giving up three consecutive first-round picks (which includes this year's Browns pick at 7.)

Halfway through the movie we see that Callahan is actually kind of a douchebag, while Mack, Jennings and Drew all seem likable. Since those are the only players we know, it pretty much seems like it would be good for the Browns if they ended up with Mack and Jennings, keep Drew at QB and not draft Callahan. Of course, currently they own the #1 pick and gave up 3 first round picks to be at that spot. So it would behoove them to trade down if that's what they want, right? That is never discussed. In fact, the GM isn't even in the draft room when the Browns go on the clock! He's in his office by himself.

Maybe the movie could have introduced us to more players if they didn't also have a relationship angle where Jennifer Garner tells the GM that she's pregnant on Draft Day and the GM's mom shows up with the GM's dad's cremated remains and insists upon spreading his ashes on the practice field on Draft Day.

Anyways, so the GM sends in the first pick without consulting the rest of the draft room. And it's Vontae Mack. If it was Bo Callahan he could have still traded the rights to Bo for more picks to trade down and get Mack/Jennings, but nope. He mortgaged the future for this linebacker. Earlier in the movie there was a conversation that Mack would slip into the late teens if the Browns didn't take him at 7. (Mack had seen the Mock Drafts and personally called the GM. Apparently, no teams in the top 15 want a franchise-changing linebacker.)

So Bo Callahan is still on the board but slips to 6 because teams are spooked that the Browns didn't take him. The Jaguars are at 6 and could use a QB. But they're spooked about why the Browns don't want Callahan. Remember, to everyone in the country Callahan is Andrew Luck. So no teams in the NFL want Callahan because the Browns don't take him? Teams at #2, #3 could be trading the pick or taking the QB, but nope nothing happens. The Seahwaks still want Callahan but they don't contact the Jaguars at 6. Instead the Browns GM calls the Jaguars. They give up three 2nd-rounders to get the #6 pick. Now he calls the Seahawks. He threatens to take Callahan now at 6 unless the Seahawks give the Browns their picks back...plus throw in a punt returner.

If you're Seattle, there's no way you make this deal. If the Browns wanted Callahan, they would have taken him #1. Why would you be scared about the Browns taking him at 6? You keep the picks. That would have screwed the Browns. The Seahawks do not do this. They trade back the picks, give up the punt returner so they can draft Callahan at 6. Now the Browns are back on the clock at 7 and they take the RB Jennings.

The movie treats the Browns GM like a goddamn hero. He saved football in Cleveland.

But how did he really do? His second trade with the Seahawks just canceled out the first trade. He essentially used their original pick to take Mack, who apparently would have been there at 7 anyways. So that's neutral. Barely plus for getting a punt returner, I guess.

Then he traded three 2nd-round picks to get the RB Jennings. Again, this seems like a reasonable trade. Probably a lot to give up for one RB if you're the Browns. So I wouldn't be throwing this GM a parade.

Oh yeah and the note that the GM wrote to himself? It said Vontae Mack no matter what. Why trade three first-rounders if you want Vontae Mack so bad? Just dumb.

If he wanted to end up with Jennings and Mack here's a better way. Mack apparently was going to be there at 15. Jennings was still there at 7 and potentially could have been there a few picks later. Just move down from 7 to 15 for some extra 2nd-rounders and use those to trade back up into the first round to get both your guys.

Josh Allen will be a bust.

SEE YOU SUNDAY, COACH

Before Game 5, the Avs were 1-13 in their last 14 games vs the Predators.

But...they were 1-0 in elimination games, having won game 82 vs the Blues.

Down to their 3rd-string goalie, missing their top defenseman, which trend would hold strong?

After losing Game 4 at home, the Avs coach tweeted this:

Now that's great and all...but it's a little silly, right. Like, you've only 1 out of the last 14 games against this team. You're going to back to Nashville. If the Predators win, it's Preds in 5 and no one would bat an eye. The only game the Avs won was the first home game of the series because of all the energy in the building, but Nashville is just better...you know? So the idea of See you Sunday, coach...that's a little silly.

So here's Game 5 last night:

Scoreless all game until the Predators get a soccer goal at the 6:00 minute mark of the video. Overturned in Toronto. Really, indisputable? I dispute.

And just like that there's 9 minutes left in the Avs season. It would have been very typical for Nashville to immediately score following that disputed goal, then add an empty netter for a final of 3-0 and Avs fans are like, but wait...this should have been 0-0...

But that didn't happen.

With 4 minutes left in their season, Rantanen finds MacKinnon who does all the work and drops the puck off to Landeskog on the doorstep. TIE GAME.

And then with a minute and a half:

See you Sunday, Coach!

Look, Nashville is the better team. I didn't expect the Avs to stretch the series to 6. So I'm still thinking the Preds close it out on Sunday. But even if they do...

The Kings and Ducks got swept and are already on the golf course. The fucking Wild are eliminated and have all offseason to do inventory of their zero Stanley Cups. And the Avs have another playoff game.

a terrible chiefs season isn't bad

This is year 1 of 3 with Mahomes starting on his rookie deal. With the tough schedule (1st place Chiefs get 1st place Patriots and Jaguars while last place Broncos get last place Texans and Jets. Though a little joke on Denver, if Watson is healthy Texans should be more like a division winner than a cellar dweller.) and Mahomes first season and a shitty defense, it entirely possible the Chiefs finish somewhere between 4-12 and 7-9. 

But that would just give the Chiefs better draft picks and an easier schedule for year 2 of Mahomes. They really are in the catbird seat. They could go to the playoffs (that's good!) or make next year easier (that's also good!). It's all gravy...but just for three years. Once you have to pay the guy, the advantage goes away. So yeah...no pressure this year. But the Super Bowl Window is the next three seasons.

getting psyched for the chiefs

Thanks to Patrick Mahomes, this is the most exciting offseason in Chiefs history. Now that the schedule is out, I thought I'd break it down.

- - -

Chiefs open the season at Stubhub Center in Los Angeles. Two years ago, the Chiefs opened against the Chargers and it was the biggest comeback in KC history. Since the Chargers aren't completely injured yet, could be a tough game.

Then they go on the road again to Pittsburgh. Steelers have had the Chiefs number, Pittsburgh should be a 7 point favorite.

The Chiefs home opener is against the Garroppolo 49ers. Two teams banking on their new QBs.

On the road to Denver for Monday Night Football. Mile High is never easy but feeling good about the state of the Broncos right now. Thinking I might be going to BWW for this ESPN matchup.

In week 5, Chiefs host the Jaguars who were this close to go to the Super Bowl. If they're as good this year...yikes.

Week 6 the Chiefs get the game of the week on Sunday Night Football: at the Patriots. Mahomes vs Brady. Chiefs went to New England and beat their asses last year during the ring ceremony. They might remember that.

If you're keeping score at home, those first 6 games are pretty tough. 2-4 is likely. 1-5 is possible. If they can get through 3-3, I'd say they're in decent shape. Week 7 they get the Bengals at home. Entirely possible the Bengals return to playoff form, but looks like the start of some home cookin'.

The Sunday before Halloween, the Broncos come back to Arrowhead. I was at this game last year.

Then a road game to Cleveland. I know the Browns are adding pieces, but this is a must-win.

Followed by a home game against the Cardinals. Thus concludes a stretch of 3 home games vs non-playoff teams and a road Browns game. Need to go 4-0 here to make up for a tough start.

Chiefs catch a slight break in that one of their road games is a neutral site in Mexico City. It's Monday Night Football against the Rams, who look like a Dream Team on paper. Chiefs have to face Marcus Peters for the first time. In Week 11, will the Rams have coalesced into a Super Bowl favorite or plagued by locker room cancers? Tune in to find out!

Then a week 12 bye to recover, have Thanksgiving with their families and get right for the last 5 games.

Chiefs return to Oakland, the site of that bullshit game last year where there were about 17 final plays. Coming after the bye, I feel good about this one.

Chiefs host the Ravens in December. I have memories of the Ravens being good but they're a little fuzzy.

Then 4 days later, another home game. The Chargers come to town. They say TNF favors the home team. Or is it favors the offense? Either way, two home games in 5 days will be big for the Chiefs playoff hopes.

In week 16, two days before Christmas, the Chiefs have another SNF game against the Seahawks. Who knows what to think about that...

Last game of the regular season, the Chiefs host the Raiders on December 30. I like my chances at home if they need a win to get in.


It's a tough schedule, especially in the beginning, but I think this offense will be up to the challenge.

As for the home game Hit List, I've already seen the Chiefs beat the Raiders, Broncos, Bengals and Cardinals. I've seen losses against the Chargers and Jaguars. And I've never seen the Chiefs play the Ravens or 49ers.

If I had to pick one game to go to I'm thinking either of these would be good:

Sunday noon against the Jaguars, October 7
TNF against the Chargers, December 13

please grab a sprite

This was my absolute favorite clip when it came out. 

Just saw Atlanta season 2, episode 3 that opens with an homage to this. Well played.

chirp

SETUP

PUNCHLINE

2018 bracket recap

Cinderella finally wins it all. 

Just for posterity, because people won't believe it... here is Missy's winning bracket:

She was able to win by correctly picking Villanova to win it all and getting 4 out of 8 games correct  in the Sweet 16 round: Villanova, Texas Tech, Kansas and Duke.

Grant had 3 Final Four Teams correct, but had Kansas advancing, not Villanova.