AFC Champ QBs

Since 2001 when Tom Brady entered the league, here's a list of AFC Championship appearances by QB:

Brady: 12
Manning: 5
Roethlisberger: 5
Flacco: 3
Sanchez: 2
Stewart: 1
Gannon: 1
McNair: 1
Plummer: 1
Rivers: 1
Luck: 1
Bortles: 1
Trent Green/Matt Cassel/Alex Smith: 0

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A few takeaways:

• Brady is to date, 12 out of 17 for making the AFC title game. 
• Brady has more than Manning, Roethlisberger and Rivers combined. 
• For all the comments about how Rivers is underrated and jokes about Flacco being elite, Flacco has a leg up on him. 
• The Sanchez, Plummer and Bortles appearances makes the Chiefs absence that much more painful. 
• Obviously, the team around you shouldn't be overlooked. Roethlisberger has 5 while Rivers only has 1, with their career stats being comparable. 
• Extrapolating to what I really care about, if Mahomes is on the level of Roethlisberger/Rivers the range of AFC title appearances could be 1-5. If Mahomes is on the level of Brady/Manning, the range could be 5-12. 
• As for Super Bowl appearances, it's Brady 8, Manning 4, Roethlisberger 3, Gannon 1, Flacco 1. 

EDIT 1/13/19: 

Brady is now 13 out of 18 for making the AFC Championship. That's insane. 

Mahomes is 1 for 1. 

What have you got to lose?

The Chiefs scored a TD on 3 plays vs the Cardinals.
They scored on their first 3 drives vs the Cardinals.

And yet at the end of the 3rd quarter, the Cardinals had the ball down only 14-20. They had a 4th and 1 from their own 29. There's 16 minutes left in a game that you've never had the lead. You're 2-6. You're options are try to pick up one yard to keep a drive alive to try and take the lead or give the ball back to Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Hunt.

The Cardinals punted and never scored again. (I'm glad they did. Just saying.) Now they're 2-7.

The Race for #1

At the start of the year, the Chiefs weren't even the favorite to win their division. Now there's 6 games left before the playoffs and I'm sitting here writing a post about the #1 seed in the AFC.

First, we have to go back. The last time the Chiefs were the #1 seed in the AFC was 1997. They were eliminated by the Broncos who would go on to win the Super Bowl. (The other two teams in the divisional round? Patriots and Steelers.)

The last time the Chiefs played in the AFC Championship? 1993. It's also the only time since we're not counting the AFL Championship in 1970. That team had Joe Montana and Marcus Allen and won two playoff games before losing to Buffalo.

The last time the Chiefs were in this position, with a clear path to the #1 seed was 2003. Through ten games they were 9-1. The Patriots were 8-2. The Chiefs finished 13-3 but the Patriots won out and got the #1 seed. As #2, Chiefs had to face Manning and the Colts while the Patriots hosted McNair and Eddie George on the Titans. (That Chiefs team had Trent Green, Priest Holmes, Dante Hall and Tony G.) That's a long time ago. And yet, in 2018 and in 2003, the Chiefs are battling Tom Brady for home field advantage in the playoffs.

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At this point, lots of things could happen. The Chargers only have one more loss than KC and get to face to the Chiefs one more time. So it's possible the Chiefs could finish 13-3 and be the 5th seed. (Might even be possible to finish 14-2 and be the 5th seed depending on tiebreakers with the Chargers.) But for now, let's assume the Chiefs will win the division.

Based on their schedules, I think the Steelers will drop a couple games and be the #3 seed. In my head, it's a race between the Chiefs and Pats for the top two seeds. The loser gets to face the Steelers in the divisional round. The winner gets one of Chargers/Texans/Bengals/Titans or worse. Plus, the home field in a potential AFC title game.

The Pats losing to the Titans on Sunday was huge. That gives New England two more losses than the Chiefs. Pats have the tiebreaker so the Chiefs margin for error is one game.

That's what makes the MNF game vs the Rams so important. Not because it's a potential Super Bowl matchup. Every game is important. The Chiefs have a one-game cushion. Lose on Monday and it's gone.