Hawaiian Roll Bun. Mayo. Turkey. Pepper. Dressing. Brown Sugar Sweet Potatoes.
It was all warm and delicious.
It had been 5 years since I'd made stuffing and a big part of why I made it this year, was so I could have this sandwich.
Saturday, November 30, 2019
10th Anniversary of the Thanksgiving Leftover Sandwich
It's been 5 years since the last one...it was time.
Hawaiian Roll Bun. Mayo. Turkey. Pepper. Dressing. Brown Sugar Sweet Potatoes.
It was all warm and delicious.
It had been 5 years since I'd made stuffing and a big part of why I made it this year, was so I could have this sandwich.
Hawaiian Roll Bun. Mayo. Turkey. Pepper. Dressing. Brown Sugar Sweet Potatoes.
It was all warm and delicious.
It had been 5 years since I'd made stuffing and a big part of why I made it this year, was so I could have this sandwich.
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Monday, November 25, 2019
The Ultimate Movie Calendar
My very first movie theme night was Gear Up for Gere, the night Ray and I watched Primal Fear and The Jackal in high school. 20 years later, I did Hankering for Hanks—pretty sure it was Cast Away and Catch Me If You Can.
Then while listening to Remember the Titans on The Rewatchables podcast, I thought of Denzel December. A whole month going through Denzel's filmography. A few weeks later, Thanksgiving was approaching and I thought of Giving Thanks for T.Hanks in November. And once I had two months figured out, of course my brain was like, "well where's the rest of the year?" Here. Here's the rest of the year.
The Ultimate Movie Calendar. 12 months, each one recognizing a single filmography:
Samuel L. January
Fincher February
March with Matt
Apatow April
Murray May
Cruising into Summer
Celebrate Independence with Freeman
Al August
Streep September
Fall into Ford
Give Thanks for T.Hanks
Denzel December
So what does this look like? Here's what it looks like. I picked no more than 10 of the movies that I'd want to make sure made it into each month:
Samuel L. January
Pulp Fiction
Die Hard with a Vengeance
A Time to Kill
The Negotiator
Do The Right Thing
Jurassic Park
Django Unchained
Goodfellas
Fincher February
Fight Club
Seven
Social Network
Panic Room
Gone Girl
The Game
Zodiac
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
March with Matt
The Martian
Good Will Hunting
Rounders
Interstellar
Bourne Identity
Ocean's Eleven
Talented Mr. Ripley
The Departed
Dogma
Apatow April
Anchorman
40-Year-Old Virgin
Talladega Nights
Forgetting Sarah Marshall
Step Brothers
Funny People
Bridesmaids
This is 40
The Big Sick
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping
Murray May
Groundhog Day
Kingpin
Rushmore
Ghostbusters
Lost in Translation
Royal Tenenbaums
Stripes
Caddyshack
The Monuments Men
Zombieland
Cruising into Summer (June)
Edge of Tomorrow
Collateral
Knight and Day
Minority Report
Vanilla Sky
Magnolia
The Color of Money
A Few Good Men
Tropic Thunder
All Six Mission Impossible movies back to back so it counts as one movie
July: Celebrate Independence with Freeman
Shawshank Redemption
The Dark Knight
The Dark Knight Rises
Now You See Me
Now You See Me 2
Lucky Number Slevin
Bruce Almighty
Outbreak
Al August
Heat
Godfather
Godfather Part II
Scarface
Scent of a Woman
Insomnia
Any Given Sunday
The Recruit
Two for the Money
Ocean's Thirteen
Streep September
Adaptation
Devil Wears Prada
Julie & Julia
The Post
The Manchurian Candidate
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Iron Lady
Doubt
Fall into Ford (October)
The Fugitive
Air Force One
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Temple of Doom
Last Crusade
What Lies Beneath
Patriot Games
Blade Runner
The Empire Strikes Back
November: Give Thanks for T.Hanks
Catch Me If You Can
Cast Away
Apollo 13
Forrest Gump
You've Got Mail
A League of Their Own
Saving Private Ryan
That Thing You Do
The Da Vinci Code
Captain Phillips
Denzel December
Inside Man
Training Day
He Got Game
Deja Vu
The Equalizer
Remember the Titans
Malcolm X
The Bone Collector
Fallen
The Taking of Pelham 123
- - -
A few notes.
Let me know in the comments if you'd swap one month out for a better one.
Do not let me know in the comments that I'm missing any of the Marvel movies. This was intentional.
Then while listening to Remember the Titans on The Rewatchables podcast, I thought of Denzel December. A whole month going through Denzel's filmography. A few weeks later, Thanksgiving was approaching and I thought of Giving Thanks for T.Hanks in November. And once I had two months figured out, of course my brain was like, "well where's the rest of the year?" Here. Here's the rest of the year.
The Ultimate Movie Calendar. 12 months, each one recognizing a single filmography:
Samuel L. January
Fincher February
March with Matt
Apatow April
Murray May
Cruising into Summer
Celebrate Independence with Freeman
Al August
Streep September
Fall into Ford
Give Thanks for T.Hanks
Denzel December
So what does this look like? Here's what it looks like. I picked no more than 10 of the movies that I'd want to make sure made it into each month:
Samuel L. January
Pulp Fiction
Die Hard with a Vengeance
A Time to Kill
The Negotiator
Do The Right Thing
Jurassic Park
Django Unchained
Goodfellas
Fincher February
Fight Club
Seven
Social Network
Panic Room
Gone Girl
The Game
Zodiac
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
March with Matt
The Martian
Good Will Hunting
Rounders
Interstellar
Bourne Identity
Ocean's Eleven
Talented Mr. Ripley
The Departed
Dogma
Apatow April
Anchorman
40-Year-Old Virgin
Talladega Nights
Forgetting Sarah Marshall
Step Brothers
Funny People
Bridesmaids
This is 40
The Big Sick
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping
Murray May
Groundhog Day
Kingpin
Rushmore
Ghostbusters
Lost in Translation
Royal Tenenbaums
Stripes
Caddyshack
The Monuments Men
Zombieland
Cruising into Summer (June)
Edge of Tomorrow
Collateral
Knight and Day
Minority Report
Vanilla Sky
Magnolia
The Color of Money
A Few Good Men
Tropic Thunder
All Six Mission Impossible movies back to back so it counts as one movie
July: Celebrate Independence with Freeman
Shawshank Redemption
The Dark Knight
The Dark Knight Rises
Now You See Me
Now You See Me 2
Lucky Number Slevin
Bruce Almighty
Outbreak
Al August
Heat
Godfather
Godfather Part II
Scarface
Scent of a Woman
Insomnia
Any Given Sunday
The Recruit
Two for the Money
Ocean's Thirteen
Streep September
Adaptation
Devil Wears Prada
Julie & Julia
The Post
The Manchurian Candidate
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Iron Lady
Doubt
Fall into Ford (October)
The Fugitive
Air Force One
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Temple of Doom
Last Crusade
What Lies Beneath
Patriot Games
Blade Runner
The Empire Strikes Back
November: Give Thanks for T.Hanks
Catch Me If You Can
Cast Away
Apollo 13
Forrest Gump
You've Got Mail
A League of Their Own
Saving Private Ryan
That Thing You Do
The Da Vinci Code
Captain Phillips
Denzel December
Inside Man
Training Day
He Got Game
Deja Vu
The Equalizer
Remember the Titans
Malcolm X
The Bone Collector
Fallen
The Taking of Pelham 123
- - -
A few notes.
- I wanted Will Ferrell but once I gave Fincher February there wasn't a spot for him. So instead I got Will Ferrell through Apatow April.
- Apologies to Christopher Nolan. I considered having Nolan November and Give Thanks for T.Hanks but that threw off the 12 months thing and once you add one holiday now you have to add others, so yeah. But Freeman allowed me to have the Dark Knight movies, so it's not a complete loss.
- Apologies to Keanu Reeves. Just didn't fit.
- Apologies to Leo.
- I did try to maximize number of movies represented. Once I had Matt Damon and Fincher, I didn't need Pitt to get his own month. Once I had Pacino, I felt I could lose DeNiro. Even got Goodfellas through Sam Jackson.
- I'm aware this list is male-dominated (11 out of 12). I have my own biases and have to own that.
- I could easily lose Al August but would I replace it with?
- Cruise has the deepest roster. Just wow.
Let me know in the comments if you'd swap one month out for a better one.
Do not let me know in the comments that I'm missing any of the Marvel movies. This was intentional.
Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Road to Super Bowl LIV: Chapter 4
The game was hanging in the balance and so was the season. If the Chiefs lose last night and they drop to 2nd place in the division at 6-5, there's a real path to them missing the playoffs. If they win, I could make the case for a deep postseason run. It really felt like the season was on the line. So when Rivers connects with Williams for a 50-yard pass in the final minute, I was having flashbacks to last year. In that game KC was up 28-14 but the Chargers came back and scored with 4 seconds left and went for two on the last one to win 29-28. So when the Chargers are driving down 17-24 last night, I was afraid they were going to score and go for two.
The season, the game, all hanging on one drive.
- - -
The two impact players brought onto the Chiefs defense were Tyrann Mathieu and Frank Clark. Throughout most of this year, they've played solidly, but not spectacularly. We've been waiting for plays where the impact the game.
Well, last night both of them showed up. Last night really was the Frank Clark game. He was constantly getting to Rivers, forcing one INT and another that should have been caught. He made a huge 3rd down run stop that should have been the game-ender if the Chiefs offense could have gotten one more first down. And Mathieu made a spectacular interception jumping a route and sparking the team's offense when they hadn't been able to get anything going. (Yes, he also was the one that dropped the pop up. Crazy that he can make a difficult pick but dropped the easy one. If this game ends differently, that play would be a bigger deal for sure.)
- - -
Someone not familiar with the sport might assume that how much a fan enjoys a win or is bothered by a loss should be equal to the final score. Win by a lot is the best, right? Lose by a lot is the worst, right? Someone who knows a little more might think that a close loss is worse than a blowout. But the galaxy brain take is this: enjoyment of wins or suffering of losses is proportional to how much you expected it to happen.
When the Chiefs beat the Raiders 28-10 earlier this year, it wasn't a big deal for me because it's what I expected.
The best wins are the ones where you think you're going to lose. Either a comeback win like Chiefs vs Vikings two weeks ago, or when a collapse seems eminent like last night.
When the Matt Moore-led Chiefs lost to the Packers, it didn't sting that badly because I expected the loss. (It only hurt because the Chiefs tied the game late and gave me hope that they would win.
The worst loss is when you've convinced yourself that your team has the game won, like vs the Titans last week.
- - -
Chiefs 8-0 vs Broncos in last 8.
Chiefs 9-1 vs Raiders in last 10.
Chiefs 10-1 vs Chargers in last 11.
Sure those are cherry picked starting with winning streaks.
If you just look at the last 5 years, the Chiefs are 24-3 in the division.
Beating the Chiefs is so rare for the Chargers, that last year when they won, they printed t-shirts:
Jump back to April, when Keenan Allen was asked about the Chiefs...
Not everything was perfect last night. On the last 4 drives of the game, when the Chiefs just needed a field goal, or at the very end, just one more first down, the offense punted the ball 4 straight times.
You can blame conservative Andy Reid or altitude or injuries or whatever, but that's not good enough to win in January.
- - -
But here's the good news, one of the biggest problems for the Chiefs this year has been health. And now they have a bye week.
All of the Chiefs most important units have been injured this year: Mahomes, Hill, Watkins, RBs, O-Line, D-Line. Last night they finally had their starting O-line back for the first time all year, but then more injuries starting popping up. Chiefs were down to one running back for the 2nd half. So this bye week is critical. No more games at altitude. 3 games at home. One at New England. One at Chicago. Get to have Thanksgiving off at home and then after Chicago on Dec 22, get to have Christmas at home too. Last game of the year is at home and then (assuming they can win the division) they get a home playoff game.
3 games at Arrowhead in December to get into a groove and close out the season with a 4th-straight division title.
Fun Fact: Matt Cassel and Tim Tebow have won the AFC West more recently than Philip Rivers.
- - -
The ESPN Playoff Machine is active so I went ahead and picked the outcome of the next 6 weeks of games:
Still a lot up for grabs obviously so I'm not taking this too seriously. I just wanted to get a frame of reference of what's realistic or probable. I don't think the Patriots will finish 15-1, but it was hard to predict them to lose any single game. There's still a good path for Ravens to get the one seed since they own the tiebreaker over New England. In fact, the Ravens should be rooting for the Chiefs to beat the Pats so they'd get the 1 seed and only have to face one of KC/NE.
The path for the Chiefs to get a bye involves winning out:
That's a lot to ask. And even then, they'd have to play the Ravens in the divisional round and the Pats in the conference title game. (Which is basically the same route as without the bye. Yes, it's one more home game but the Chiefs have actually been better on the road, so [shrug emoji].
My dream scenario is one that's not going to happen:
I would love for Baltimore to knock out New England and avoid playing the Patriots. But the Ravens aren't going to fall to the 4th seed.
Incidentally, when doing this, I realized how many great games are coming up.
Yes there's Chiefs/Patriots. But also Ravens/Rams and Ravens/49ers.
And the 49ers have a gauntlet coming up:
Some huge games that will determine home field and then some. That last game vs Seattle could be the difference between a bye and the 5th seed.
A lot of good football to be played.
As for the Chiefs, they just need to focus on the division. Win that, get a home playoff game and get healthy for some tough January games.
The season, the game, all hanging on one drive.
- - -
The two impact players brought onto the Chiefs defense were Tyrann Mathieu and Frank Clark. Throughout most of this year, they've played solidly, but not spectacularly. We've been waiting for plays where the impact the game.
Well, last night both of them showed up. Last night really was the Frank Clark game. He was constantly getting to Rivers, forcing one INT and another that should have been caught. He made a huge 3rd down run stop that should have been the game-ender if the Chiefs offense could have gotten one more first down. And Mathieu made a spectacular interception jumping a route and sparking the team's offense when they hadn't been able to get anything going. (Yes, he also was the one that dropped the pop up. Crazy that he can make a difficult pick but dropped the easy one. If this game ends differently, that play would be a bigger deal for sure.)
- - -
Someone not familiar with the sport might assume that how much a fan enjoys a win or is bothered by a loss should be equal to the final score. Win by a lot is the best, right? Lose by a lot is the worst, right? Someone who knows a little more might think that a close loss is worse than a blowout. But the galaxy brain take is this: enjoyment of wins or suffering of losses is proportional to how much you expected it to happen.
When the Chiefs beat the Raiders 28-10 earlier this year, it wasn't a big deal for me because it's what I expected.
The best wins are the ones where you think you're going to lose. Either a comeback win like Chiefs vs Vikings two weeks ago, or when a collapse seems eminent like last night.
When the Matt Moore-led Chiefs lost to the Packers, it didn't sting that badly because I expected the loss. (It only hurt because the Chiefs tied the game late and gave me hope that they would win.
The worst loss is when you've convinced yourself that your team has the game won, like vs the Titans last week.
- - -
Chiefs 8-0 vs Broncos in last 8.
Chiefs 9-1 vs Raiders in last 10.
Chiefs 10-1 vs Chargers in last 11.
Sure those are cherry picked starting with winning streaks.
If you just look at the last 5 years, the Chiefs are 24-3 in the division.
Beating the Chiefs is so rare for the Chargers, that last year when they won, they printed t-shirts:
Jump back to April, when Keenan Allen was asked about the Chiefs...
Chiefs defense: 4 picks last night
- - -
You can blame conservative Andy Reid or altitude or injuries or whatever, but that's not good enough to win in January.
- - -
But here's the good news, one of the biggest problems for the Chiefs this year has been health. And now they have a bye week.
All of the Chiefs most important units have been injured this year: Mahomes, Hill, Watkins, RBs, O-Line, D-Line. Last night they finally had their starting O-line back for the first time all year, but then more injuries starting popping up. Chiefs were down to one running back for the 2nd half. So this bye week is critical. No more games at altitude. 3 games at home. One at New England. One at Chicago. Get to have Thanksgiving off at home and then after Chicago on Dec 22, get to have Christmas at home too. Last game of the year is at home and then (assuming they can win the division) they get a home playoff game.
3 games at Arrowhead in December to get into a groove and close out the season with a 4th-straight division title.
Fun Fact: Matt Cassel and Tim Tebow have won the AFC West more recently than Philip Rivers.
- - -
The ESPN Playoff Machine is active so I went ahead and picked the outcome of the next 6 weeks of games:
Still a lot up for grabs obviously so I'm not taking this too seriously. I just wanted to get a frame of reference of what's realistic or probable. I don't think the Patriots will finish 15-1, but it was hard to predict them to lose any single game. There's still a good path for Ravens to get the one seed since they own the tiebreaker over New England. In fact, the Ravens should be rooting for the Chiefs to beat the Pats so they'd get the 1 seed and only have to face one of KC/NE.
The path for the Chiefs to get a bye involves winning out:
That's a lot to ask. And even then, they'd have to play the Ravens in the divisional round and the Pats in the conference title game. (Which is basically the same route as without the bye. Yes, it's one more home game but the Chiefs have actually been better on the road, so [shrug emoji].
My dream scenario is one that's not going to happen:
I would love for Baltimore to knock out New England and avoid playing the Patriots. But the Ravens aren't going to fall to the 4th seed.
Incidentally, when doing this, I realized how many great games are coming up.
Yes there's Chiefs/Patriots. But also Ravens/Rams and Ravens/49ers.
And the 49ers have a gauntlet coming up:
A lot of good football to be played.
As for the Chiefs, they just need to focus on the division. Win that, get a home playoff game and get healthy for some tough January games.
Monday, November 18, 2019
I Love Laterals
A crazy one is at 4:50. Just made the interception in a 3-point game and laterals casually on the 10 with 20 seconds to go. If he fumbles he goes from hero to goat.
Friday, November 15, 2019
Addendum: Last Year's Big Ten Bowl Games
I wanted to follow up on yesterday's post where I listed the Bowl Games with Big Ten affiliations in a perceived order that I had found online. Let's compare the Big Ten standings prior to bowl games to where teams were slotted.
Standings with records and conference records in parentheses for bowl elgible teams
#6 Ohio State 12-1 (8-1)
#7 Michigan 10-2 (8-1)
#12 Penn State 9-3 (6-3)
#22 Northwestern 8-5 (8-1)
Iowa 8-4 (5-4)
Wisconsin 7-5 (5-4) / Michigan State 7-5 (5-4)
Purdue 6-6 (5-4)
Minnesota 6-6 (3-6)
Okay, so those are the 9 Big Ten bowl teams from last year. Using that order of ranking, here's the order of the bowl games:
Rose - Pasadena
***Peach
Citrus - Orlando
Holiday - San Diego
Outback - Tampa
Pinstripe - New York / Redbox - Santa Clara
Music City - Nashville
Quick Lane - Detroit
So the Peach Bowl. One thing I only realized/remembered by doing this is that Big Ten teams also are eligible for the New Year's Six. Last year, Michigan was selected to the Peach Bowl, which moved everyone up a slot.
These bowls didn't get a Big Ten team.
Gator - Jacksonville
Armed Forces - Fort Worth
So the worst Big Ten bowl team was sent to Detroit as a punishment as expected.
Also, last year, Northwestern was 8-1 in conference play before making the Big Ten Championship, but also lost to Duke and Akron. Weird.
Standings with records and conference records in parentheses for bowl elgible teams
#6 Ohio State 12-1 (8-1)
#7 Michigan 10-2 (8-1)
#12 Penn State 9-3 (6-3)
#22 Northwestern 8-5 (8-1)
Iowa 8-4 (5-4)
Wisconsin 7-5 (5-4) / Michigan State 7-5 (5-4)
Purdue 6-6 (5-4)
Minnesota 6-6 (3-6)
Okay, so those are the 9 Big Ten bowl teams from last year. Using that order of ranking, here's the order of the bowl games:
Rose - Pasadena
***Peach
Citrus - Orlando
Holiday - San Diego
Outback - Tampa
Pinstripe - New York / Redbox - Santa Clara
Music City - Nashville
Quick Lane - Detroit
So the Peach Bowl. One thing I only realized/remembered by doing this is that Big Ten teams also are eligible for the New Year's Six. Last year, Michigan was selected to the Peach Bowl, which moved everyone up a slot.
These bowls didn't get a Big Ten team.
Gator - Jacksonville
Armed Forces - Fort Worth
So the worst Big Ten bowl team was sent to Detroit as a punishment as expected.
Also, last year, Northwestern was 8-1 in conference play before making the Big Ten Championship, but also lost to Duke and Akron. Weird.
Thursday, November 14, 2019
2019-20 Big Ten Bowl Games
Big Ten Bowl Games can be confusing. Before we get into the conference bowl games, let's take a step back to remind us of the modern bowl/playoff landscape.
The top 6 bowls are called the New Year's Six:
Cotton
Peach
Fiesta
Rose
Sugar
Orange
Every year, two of those six get designated as the Playoff Semifinal.
Which means for Big Ten purposes, there can be four categories of years.
Category #1: Rose is not playoff game, Big Ten has no playoff team
This is the classic. The Rose Bowl is the top bowl for the Big Ten. This just happened in 2018-2019 with Ohio State representing the Big Ten.
Category #2: Rose is not playoff game, Big Ten has playoff team
This is the case when the Rose Bowl is the #2 bowl for the Big Ten. This happened in 2016-2017. Ohio State made the playoffs and went to the Fiesta Bowl, so Penn State got the Rose Bowl.
Category #3: Rose is playoff game, Big Ten has no playoff team
In this scenario, the Big Ten misses the playoffs and the Rose Bowl. This happened in 2017-2018. 3 Big Ten teams still made the New Year's Six: Ohio State in Cotton, Penn State in Fiesta, Wisconsin in Orange.
Category #4: Rose is playoff game, Big Ten has playoff team
In this case, the Big Ten has a playoff team but the Rose Bowl is off-limits for the rest of the conference. This happened in 2014-2015. Conference ties to bowl games mean nothing in this situation as Ohio State played in the Sugar Bowl playoff game and the Rose Bowl was a playoff game between Oregon and Florida State.
- - -
For a team like Illinois, it's better when the Rose is not a playoff game. And it's better when the Big Ten has a playoff team as everyone moves up a slot. (In fact, that's exactly how Illinois got to the 2008 Rose Bowl as a 9-3 team.)
As luck would have it, Category #2 is what's projected to happen this year as the Rose is not a playoff game and Ohio State is projected to make the playoffs. So I suppose Illinois should want Ohio State to win out, clearing the way for every team to move up a notch.
- - -
This year's Big Ten affiliated bowls:
(playoffs)
Rose - Pasadena
Citrus - Orlando
Outback - Tampa
Holiday - San Diego
Gator - Jacksonville
Pinstripe - New York
Redbox - Santa Clara
Quick Lane - Detroit
Armed Forces - Fort Worth
Real talk, Detroit is a cruel joke. At least Fort Worth is warm. New York is cool, but if I was a player, I'd want anything in Florida or California. I've seen Illinois projected in at least 5 different bowls and they're still two games to play so a lot will depend on their finish. Iowa and Illinois are currently 7th & 8th in overall Big Ten standings.
Here's another way of looking at it. 14 teams in the Big Ten. Illinois is one of 8 teams that has clinched a bowl. 3 cannot become eligible. 3 teams are still in the running. Purdue has to beat Wisconsin, so I feel comfortable crossing them off. Nebraska would have to beat Iowa or Wisconsin. Michigan State sitting on 4 wins just needs to win 2 of 3 vs Michigan, Rutgers and Maryland.
But it's very likely that Illinois will finish 7th or 8th in the conference. If the Big Ten gets a playoff team, then 7th/8th would be roughly New York or Santa Clara. It would stink if Redbox Bowl picked Michigan State over Illinois and bumped the Illini to the Quick Lane. But really, the motto for me is just to avoid Detroit.
The top 6 bowls are called the New Year's Six:
Cotton
Peach
Fiesta
Rose
Sugar
Orange
Every year, two of those six get designated as the Playoff Semifinal.
Which means for Big Ten purposes, there can be four categories of years.
Category #1: Rose is not playoff game, Big Ten has no playoff team
This is the classic. The Rose Bowl is the top bowl for the Big Ten. This just happened in 2018-2019 with Ohio State representing the Big Ten.
Category #2: Rose is not playoff game, Big Ten has playoff team
This is the case when the Rose Bowl is the #2 bowl for the Big Ten. This happened in 2016-2017. Ohio State made the playoffs and went to the Fiesta Bowl, so Penn State got the Rose Bowl.
Category #3: Rose is playoff game, Big Ten has no playoff team
In this scenario, the Big Ten misses the playoffs and the Rose Bowl. This happened in 2017-2018. 3 Big Ten teams still made the New Year's Six: Ohio State in Cotton, Penn State in Fiesta, Wisconsin in Orange.
Category #4: Rose is playoff game, Big Ten has playoff team
In this case, the Big Ten has a playoff team but the Rose Bowl is off-limits for the rest of the conference. This happened in 2014-2015. Conference ties to bowl games mean nothing in this situation as Ohio State played in the Sugar Bowl playoff game and the Rose Bowl was a playoff game between Oregon and Florida State.
- - -
For a team like Illinois, it's better when the Rose is not a playoff game. And it's better when the Big Ten has a playoff team as everyone moves up a slot. (In fact, that's exactly how Illinois got to the 2008 Rose Bowl as a 9-3 team.)
As luck would have it, Category #2 is what's projected to happen this year as the Rose is not a playoff game and Ohio State is projected to make the playoffs. So I suppose Illinois should want Ohio State to win out, clearing the way for every team to move up a notch.
- - -
This year's Big Ten affiliated bowls:
(playoffs)
Rose - Pasadena
Citrus - Orlando
Outback - Tampa
Holiday - San Diego
Gator - Jacksonville
Pinstripe - New York
Redbox - Santa Clara
Quick Lane - Detroit
Armed Forces - Fort Worth
Real talk, Detroit is a cruel joke. At least Fort Worth is warm. New York is cool, but if I was a player, I'd want anything in Florida or California. I've seen Illinois projected in at least 5 different bowls and they're still two games to play so a lot will depend on their finish. Iowa and Illinois are currently 7th & 8th in overall Big Ten standings.
Here's another way of looking at it. 14 teams in the Big Ten. Illinois is one of 8 teams that has clinched a bowl. 3 cannot become eligible. 3 teams are still in the running. Purdue has to beat Wisconsin, so I feel comfortable crossing them off. Nebraska would have to beat Iowa or Wisconsin. Michigan State sitting on 4 wins just needs to win 2 of 3 vs Michigan, Rutgers and Maryland.
But it's very likely that Illinois will finish 7th or 8th in the conference. If the Big Ten gets a playoff team, then 7th/8th would be roughly New York or Santa Clara. It would stink if Redbox Bowl picked Michigan State over Illinois and bumped the Illini to the Quick Lane. But really, the motto for me is just to avoid Detroit.
Wednesday, November 13, 2019
Do Not Read During a Meeting
Sometimes during a work meeting, I'll glance at my laptop and start reading whatever tab I had open. But two weeks ago, I was reading Drew Magary and I couldn't control my laughter while in a meeting.
Today, it happened again, although to a lesser extent during this post:
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
The Fight in Fighting Illini
Coming into a road conference game at Michigan State, Illinois was a 14.5 point underdog. As I had outlined last week, here were the stakes:
Win one and you're going bowling for the first time since 2014.
Win two and you've got a winning record in the Big Ten for the first time since 2007.
20 minutes into the game, Michigan State was up 28-3. Here was the reaction on twitter, chronologically from bottom to top:
Things were not going well. At this point, a lot of teams just pack it in. Here's the first moment that gave Illinois life.
I know it's blurry because the camera is panning, but that State receiver on the goal line is about to catch the ball. He holds onto it, and it's 35-3 at the half. But he doesn't hang onto it. Here's the play:
One Illini hits him, pops the ball up an another makes the interception.
Illinois can't do anything, punts it away, and then makes another interception.
On the last play off the half, Peters looks deep, then looks short. There's 6 seconds left. If he throws it short, maybe there's a chance for a field goal but probably not.
Instead he steps and throws it to the end zone. So the ex-Michigan QB Peters finds the ex-USC Josh Imatorbhebhe for a TD. 28-10 at the half. Was that look to short a tactic trying to shake off the secondary or was he really considering a short read at the point? I don't know.
The Illini capitalize on that momentum by allowing a field goal on the first drive and not scoring in the 3rd quarter.
MSU was winning by 21, covering the 14.5 to start the 4th quarter.
THE VERY NEXT PLAY, State has a bad snap and Illinois gets the ball inside the 10!
But then on 3rd and goal from 12, down 7, Brandon Peters throws a pick.
That turnover gives MSU life and they start driving down the field. It doesn't look good. With 6 minutes left, MSU has the ball at midfield up 7. For many teams, this would be the breaking point.
But then the Illinois D comes up with another interception...and takes it to the house!
And just when Illinois is about to tie it up, they miss the XP.
That gives MSU new hope and they break off a 40-yard run on the first play. MSU makes a field goal giving them a 4-point lead with 3 minutes to go.
Which soon becomes 4th and 17. (The TV graphics have it as 4th and 16, but it's 4th and 17 on the scoreboard and in the official game book.)
Illinois dials up this play:
You know the play, where your quarterback is about to get hit by two defenders so he chucks it up wildly off his back foot. You know this play because you've seen it fall INCOMPLETE a million times over the years. But on this particular pass, it fell IMATORBHEBHE.
Illinois gets another 4th down chance from the 4. Fade to the corner. Incomplete.
Except the wise and infallible refs call pass interference. First down Illini.
Illinois eventually scores with 5 seconds left.
Lovie even brought a damn bowling ball to East Lansing.
So many points at which it would have been easy to give up. But this team kept fighting. Look, they're not as good as the top of the Big Ten. We know this. I wouldn't even want them to go to the Big Ten Championship and get blown out. But, damn you have to love the fight in this team. Even if in two years they go 4-8. This team earned their bowl game.
(Galaxy Brain Take: Missing that XP at 30-31 helped Illinois. I think Michigan State plays differently if they're tied. And down 4, Illinois couldn't settle for a field goal so they had to be aggressive. At the end, they would have kicked and gone to OT and then you're back to a 50-50 shot. So nice job missing the XP.)
We even had the MSU paper feeling ILL:
But my favorite moment was between Josh Whitman and Lovie Smith. Lovie had to know that his job was in jeopardy if this season went poorly. And by extension, Whitman knows he could get on the hot seat quickly if has to admit that Lovie wasn't the fix. To see two people who've promised winning and suffered through a lot of losing find catharsis while the Marching Illini play our freaking fight song on their field, well it's just pretty great.
This is all Illini fans right now:
Win one and you're going bowling for the first time since 2014.
Win two and you've got a winning record in the Big Ten for the first time since 2007.
20 minutes into the game, Michigan State was up 28-3. Here was the reaction on twitter, chronologically from bottom to top:
Things were not going well. At this point, a lot of teams just pack it in. Here's the first moment that gave Illinois life.
I know it's blurry because the camera is panning, but that State receiver on the goal line is about to catch the ball. He holds onto it, and it's 35-3 at the half. But he doesn't hang onto it. Here's the play:
One Illini hits him, pops the ball up an another makes the interception.
Illinois can't do anything, punts it away, and then makes another interception.
On the last play off the half, Peters looks deep, then looks short. There's 6 seconds left. If he throws it short, maybe there's a chance for a field goal but probably not.
Instead he steps and throws it to the end zone. So the ex-Michigan QB Peters finds the ex-USC Josh Imatorbhebhe for a TD. 28-10 at the half. Was that look to short a tactic trying to shake off the secondary or was he really considering a short read at the point? I don't know.
The Illini capitalize on that momentum by allowing a field goal on the first drive and not scoring in the 3rd quarter.
MSU was winning by 21, covering the 14.5 to start the 4th quarter.
First play of the 4th quarter: Peters finds Imatorbhebhe again.
If MSU makes that tackle, it's a modest gain. They don't. Imatorbhebhe takes it to the house for his second TD.
After forcing a 3 and out, Illinois drives in 5 plays to make it 31-24.
But then on 3rd and goal from 12, down 7, Brandon Peters throws a pick.
But then the Illinois D comes up with another interception...and takes it to the house!
And just when Illinois is about to tie it up, they miss the XP.
That gives MSU new hope and they break off a 40-yard run on the first play. MSU makes a field goal giving them a 4-point lead with 3 minutes to go.
Which soon becomes 4th and 17. (The TV graphics have it as 4th and 16, but it's 4th and 17 on the scoreboard and in the official game book.)
Illinois dials up this play:
You know the play, where your quarterback is about to get hit by two defenders so he chucks it up wildly off his back foot. You know this play because you've seen it fall INCOMPLETE a million times over the years. But on this particular pass, it fell IMATORBHEBHE.
Illinois gets another 4th down chance from the 4. Fade to the corner. Incomplete.
Except the wise and infallible refs call pass interference. First down Illini.
Illinois eventually scores with 5 seconds left.
Lovie even brought a damn bowling ball to East Lansing.
So many points at which it would have been easy to give up. But this team kept fighting. Look, they're not as good as the top of the Big Ten. We know this. I wouldn't even want them to go to the Big Ten Championship and get blown out. But, damn you have to love the fight in this team. Even if in two years they go 4-8. This team earned their bowl game.
(Galaxy Brain Take: Missing that XP at 30-31 helped Illinois. I think Michigan State plays differently if they're tied. And down 4, Illinois couldn't settle for a field goal so they had to be aggressive. At the end, they would have kicked and gone to OT and then you're back to a 50-50 shot. So nice job missing the XP.)
We even had the MSU paper feeling ILL:
But my favorite moment was between Josh Whitman and Lovie Smith. Lovie had to know that his job was in jeopardy if this season went poorly. And by extension, Whitman knows he could get on the hot seat quickly if has to admit that Lovie wasn't the fix. To see two people who've promised winning and suffered through a lot of losing find catharsis while the Marching Illini play our freaking fight song on their field, well it's just pretty great.
What a moment between Lovie Smith and Josh Whitman after the #Illini clinch a bowl bid pic.twitter.com/pqKWbdzIRA— Isaac Trotter (@isaac_trotter2) November 10, 2019
This is all Illini fans right now:
Your Weekly Chiefs Update: Brutal Loss Edition
Chiefs fans have experienced a number of backbreaking games, often in the playoffs. Because of this, there's this sense among fans that the Chiefs have a knack for losing in awful ways, or that they're cursed, etc. Here's some examples of that conventional wisdom:
Some people both locally and nationally buy in to the lazy narrative that Andy Reid makes more coaching errors in the clutch than other coaches. Time management is often cited, but it can be anything people want it to be. Earlier this year it was too conservative, too much running. This week it was why not run the ball, too aggressive.
After watching Andy Reid week in, week out for 6 years, I can safely say he's an awesome coach, great playcaller, and usually outcoaches the other coach, often by a big margin. He doesn't get credit when things don't fit the narrative that people want or expect. In the Chiefs vs Colts game that I went to, the Colts had used up all three of their second half timeouts with over 11 minutes to go in the game. The Chiefs hadn't used any. If it had been the other way around, it would have become a talking point. Because Andy was on the better end of that one, no one noticed. He's usually on the better end. Any fan that thinks he is the problem, needs to go watch some full game tape of the Herm Edwards (15-33) or Romeo Crennel days (4-15). Reid by the way is 65-31.
Let's dive in to this particular choke job before I get back to my initial point.
The Chiefs were at 98% chance to win with the ball on the Tennessee 24, up 5. On 3rd and 2, they tried a rollout pass (screen?) and it didn't work. This brought up a field goal from the Tennessee 29.
They snapped it before Colquitt was ready and Butker never had a chance to kick it. (Worth noting that bungling this play had the same outcome as missing a field goal, which happens at least 10-20% of the time.
Without timeouts the Titans went 3 for 4, getting plays of 18, 20 and 23 yards. Also got the two-point conversion. So even if the Chiefs had been up 8, the Titans could have tied with the drive they just produced.
With only 23 seconds left, Mahomes got the Chiefs into field goal range but that kick was blocked.
All in all, it was a brutal giveaway. Chiefs convert 3rd and 2 and the game is over. They make either field goal and the worst case scenario is overtime. Or you know, not let Tannehill look like vintage Peyton Manning.
Of course, you could also say that about not fumbling for a scoop and score that kept the Titans in the game. Or stopping a Tannehill scramble on a 3rd down when the Chiefs were up 29-20.
So this was awful. Collapse. Choke job. You name it.
But here's the thing. The Chiefs aren't special. This happens to every team. Every team has allowed big comebacks or lost games they shouldn't have lost.
Saints had the Minnesota Miracle and the Rams no-call game.
Vikings should have won vs the Chiefs last week.
Chargers fumbled on the goal line this year.
Seahawks should have handed it to Marshawn.
The Bears miss kicks, the Lions do it in too many ways to count.
Falcons had a Super Bowl choke job for the ages.
Even the Patriots had the Miami Miracle loss.
This is not a Chiefs thing. This is part of being a fan. It sucks, for sure. But it happens to everyone. It's great when you're on the winning end and it hurts on the losing end.
But KC people need to stop thinking that we're special. We're not cursed. We have Patrick Mahomes. Life goes on.
Last year, the Chiefs were up 28-14 over the Chargers, and they came down and won 29-28 by going for two. I thought the secret was out, that you should just go for two every time against KC because our defense was so bad. The Chiefs ended up hosting the AFC Championship anyways.
- - -
Wilson is the favorite for MVP at +225 but I would bet it anyways because I think he's going to win.
In unrelated news, here's the passing chart sorted by ANY/A from Mahomes all the way down to Brady.
If you take away the 76 passing yards he got in the Denver game where he dislocated his kneecap, Mahomes has over 2500 passing yards in the 7 games he finished.
Because he missed over 2.5 games, he would need to average 400 yards a game through cold December to get to 5000 yards again.
- - -
Worth noting that last year in the AFC Championship, down 3 with 32 seconds left, Mahomes got the Chiefs into field goal range. He did that yesterday with 23 seconds left. When the game is on the line, this guy delivers. You're never really out of the game with him back there.
- - -
Could we get the defensive intensity back that we had with Matt Moore under center though?
What this team really needs more than anything is to get healthy. Get our O-line back. Get our D full strength.
That's why it's a perfect time for a trip to Mexico. Damnit.
Bye week after.
Raiders are 5-4 with Bengals and Jets next, so they'll be 7-4 coming to Arrowhead on December 1.
So uh, this Chargers game in Mexico is important just to be 7-4 as well.
- - -
AFC Remaining Schedules:
Steelers: cupcake
Raiders: easy
Ravens: mixed bag
Patriots: mixed bag
Chiefs: medium
Titans: medium to tough
Texans: tough
Colts: tough
Bills: hard
The Bills are not going to make the playoffs. People will call it a collapse, but really it was an unbalanced schedule.
The Colts will also miss out, due to the Brissett injury and a tough schedule.
Patriots and Ravens will get the byes.
Chiefs and Texans will be 3/4 in some order.
But I think Steelers and Raiders make the playoffs as wild-cards.
Some people both locally and nationally buy in to the lazy narrative that Andy Reid makes more coaching errors in the clutch than other coaches. Time management is often cited, but it can be anything people want it to be. Earlier this year it was too conservative, too much running. This week it was why not run the ball, too aggressive.
After watching Andy Reid week in, week out for 6 years, I can safely say he's an awesome coach, great playcaller, and usually outcoaches the other coach, often by a big margin. He doesn't get credit when things don't fit the narrative that people want or expect. In the Chiefs vs Colts game that I went to, the Colts had used up all three of their second half timeouts with over 11 minutes to go in the game. The Chiefs hadn't used any. If it had been the other way around, it would have become a talking point. Because Andy was on the better end of that one, no one noticed. He's usually on the better end. Any fan that thinks he is the problem, needs to go watch some full game tape of the Herm Edwards (15-33) or Romeo Crennel days (4-15). Reid by the way is 65-31.
Let's dive in to this particular choke job before I get back to my initial point.
The Chiefs were at 98% chance to win with the ball on the Tennessee 24, up 5. On 3rd and 2, they tried a rollout pass (screen?) and it didn't work. This brought up a field goal from the Tennessee 29.
They snapped it before Colquitt was ready and Butker never had a chance to kick it. (Worth noting that bungling this play had the same outcome as missing a field goal, which happens at least 10-20% of the time.
Without timeouts the Titans went 3 for 4, getting plays of 18, 20 and 23 yards. Also got the two-point conversion. So even if the Chiefs had been up 8, the Titans could have tied with the drive they just produced.
With only 23 seconds left, Mahomes got the Chiefs into field goal range but that kick was blocked.
All in all, it was a brutal giveaway. Chiefs convert 3rd and 2 and the game is over. They make either field goal and the worst case scenario is overtime. Or you know, not let Tannehill look like vintage Peyton Manning.
Of course, you could also say that about not fumbling for a scoop and score that kept the Titans in the game. Or stopping a Tannehill scramble on a 3rd down when the Chiefs were up 29-20.
So this was awful. Collapse. Choke job. You name it.
But here's the thing. The Chiefs aren't special. This happens to every team. Every team has allowed big comebacks or lost games they shouldn't have lost.
Saints had the Minnesota Miracle and the Rams no-call game.
Vikings should have won vs the Chiefs last week.
Chargers fumbled on the goal line this year.
Seahawks should have handed it to Marshawn.
The Bears miss kicks, the Lions do it in too many ways to count.
Falcons had a Super Bowl choke job for the ages.
Even the Patriots had the Miami Miracle loss.
This is not a Chiefs thing. This is part of being a fan. It sucks, for sure. But it happens to everyone. It's great when you're on the winning end and it hurts on the losing end.
But KC people need to stop thinking that we're special. We're not cursed. We have Patrick Mahomes. Life goes on.
Last year, the Chiefs were up 28-14 over the Chargers, and they came down and won 29-28 by going for two. I thought the secret was out, that you should just go for two every time against KC because our defense was so bad. The Chiefs ended up hosting the AFC Championship anyways.
- - -
Wilson is the favorite for MVP at +225 but I would bet it anyways because I think he's going to win.
In unrelated news, here's the passing chart sorted by ANY/A from Mahomes all the way down to Brady.
If you take away the 76 passing yards he got in the Denver game where he dislocated his kneecap, Mahomes has over 2500 passing yards in the 7 games he finished.
Because he missed over 2.5 games, he would need to average 400 yards a game through cold December to get to 5000 yards again.
- - -
Worth noting that last year in the AFC Championship, down 3 with 32 seconds left, Mahomes got the Chiefs into field goal range. He did that yesterday with 23 seconds left. When the game is on the line, this guy delivers. You're never really out of the game with him back there.
- - -
Could we get the defensive intensity back that we had with Matt Moore under center though?
What this team really needs more than anything is to get healthy. Get our O-line back. Get our D full strength.
That's why it's a perfect time for a trip to Mexico. Damnit.
Bye week after.
Raiders are 5-4 with Bengals and Jets next, so they'll be 7-4 coming to Arrowhead on December 1.
So uh, this Chargers game in Mexico is important just to be 7-4 as well.
- - -
AFC Remaining Schedules:
Steelers: cupcake
Raiders: easy
Ravens: mixed bag
Patriots: mixed bag
Chiefs: medium
Titans: medium to tough
Texans: tough
Colts: tough
Bills: hard
The Bills are not going to make the playoffs. People will call it a collapse, but really it was an unbalanced schedule.
The Colts will also miss out, due to the Brissett injury and a tough schedule.
Patriots and Ravens will get the byes.
Chiefs and Texans will be 3/4 in some order.
But I think Steelers and Raiders make the playoffs as wild-cards.
Friday, November 08, 2019
Ranking the NFL Fan Experiences
You don't pick what NFL team you're a fan of. But what if you could? And you had a time machine? Well, even you're not in the market for a new team, I thought it would be fun to rate the experiences of being a NFL fan focused primarily on success over the last 20 years and hope on the horizon.
I'm choosing to focus on the last 20 years as I'm in mid-30's and that's my frame of reference. But also the world we're in is a what have you done for me lately kind of world. In my head, Cowboys dynasty of the 90's is beyond what feels like recent history, while Tom Brady's first Super Bowl still feels like recent history in part because he's still in the league. Hopefully that makes sense. Also, the St. Louis Rams won Super Bowl XXXIV but the Rams aren't in St. Louis in anymore, so it's good dividing point as well.
Brutal Division
To determine what's the worst team to be a fan of you have to weigh a lot of factors: playoff win droughts, Super Bowl losses, even team relocation. Is it worse to get tantalizingly close and then collapse in heartbreaking fashion or is it worse to never even have hope in the first place? Does hope outweigh everything else, considering we're only talking about bad teams? Amazingly, there's 10 teams here in this division and almost all of them have a viable case for why they should be ranked the worst.
32. Browns
They've won the least games in the NFL since 2000 and it's not close. They went 0-16. Their last playoff win was 1995. Not only that, they've only been to the playoffs once since then, in 2003. That's just incredibly brutal. Browns football is misery, year after year. They know they're going to suck and then they suck. Their QB history is nightmare fuel. You could make the argument that being a Lions fan is worse because the Browns never get their hopes up. Even when they tank and draft a QB #1 and trade for Odell, they still stink. But here's what puts the Browns over the top: Their team was moved to Baltimore and won a Super Bowl within five years.
31. Lions
The Lions really are Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. They get generational players like Sanders and Megatron only for them to retire in their prime. They've had 11 seasons of Matt Stafford who at times plays like a MVP and others like a benchwarmer. Orlovsky ran out of the end zone. Marty Mornhinweg picked the wind in sudden death. They went 0-16 before it was cool. Their last playoff win was 1991. And just when you think they're about to win a playoff game, the refs pick up the flag.
30. Bengals
They own the longest playoff win drought in the NFL. Their last 7 playoff games have been losses. 4 of them at home. And yet, they're not at the bottom of the NFL in wins. They're middle of the pack. They went 12-4 in 2015! They were about to win a playoff game over their hated rival Steelers, when back to back personal fouls pushed the Steelers into field goal range. Losing over and over in the playoffs is so goddamn painful, because you can't even enjoy winning the division knowing what's about to happen.
29. Falcons
They've had a lot of winning seasons with talented rosters. And yet when it came to the playoffs, it always ended it heartbreak. They've been a team for 54 years and never won a Super Bowl. They finally overcome playoff struggles and make the Super Bowl for the first time this century. And then it happens. 28-3 is a joke that will live on and on. To be that close to the entire goal and choke it away just has to be the worst feeling in the world. If that happened to me, I honestly don't know how I could continue to root for this team or watch football at all.
28. Chargers
Despite winning a ton and haven't great players to watch, this team has a double whammy. They never even got to the conference championship round despite so many chances. AND the freaking team left San Diego. For Chargers fans in San Diego that feeling of abandonment is almost as bad as 28-3. Although, you could still watch on TV and it's not that far away. So that's why I've got their experience better than the Falcons.
27. Raiders
I didn't initially think they would fit in the Brutal Division, but here's their playoff history this century: Wild-card loss in 2016, then a Super Bowl loss in 2002, then the Tuck Rule loss in 2001. It's got a little bit of everything: playoff drought, SB loss, and a feeling of being cheated. The Antonio Brown saga was awful. Oh yeah, and they're moving to Vegas. That's two out of three Oakland teams leaving in the same year.
26. Washington
Let's see: terrible owner. No hope on the horizon. Racist team name generating controversy every year. Long playoff win drought. And they had a genuinely exciting player in RG3 and ruined him.
25. Jets
Buttfumble. Mono. Drunk Namath. It really is incredible how many teams are more punchlines than football programs. They're even the little brother to a team in the same stadium that's won two titles. They had a glimmer of hope with Rex Ryan and Sanchez but never made it to a Super Bowl. And Sam Darnold as a savior isn't quite panning out yet.
24. Dolphins
Okay, so they haven't won a playoff game since 2000. And this year they became a national punchline. But also they have a TON of draft capital. And they had the Miami Miracle too.
23. Bills
Bills fans seem to have lots of fun. They have great tailgates. They know how to spice up a Patriots game. Occasionally they have a game in the snow that is incredible to watch. They have times when they're frisky on the field. The knock on them is their last playoff win was 1995. But it doesn't seem to bring them down.
Merely Bad Division
We're finally out of gut-wrenching territory. Really says something that for 10 teams in the NFL, misery is the defining emotion.
22. Jaguars
They've only made the playoffs three times in two decades, so it's been a tough road. But they did have a strong recent run and built a defensive identity. They also had Minshew Mania which at least counts for something. The haven't had a ton to root for, but at least they're not in the brutal division.
21. Titans
Their first season in Tennessee was as the Tennessee Oilers in Memphis. The following season they were the Tennessee Oilers in Nashville. It was their third season, that they finally become the Tennessee Titans. And that year they got the Music City Miracle and went to the Super Bowl. Since then they've mostly been mediocre but have had three separate years with playoff wins.
Up and Down Division
Both of these teams have had highs and lows.
20. Vikings
I bet if you asked Vikings fans, plenty would be arguing they should be ranked worse on this list. The Blair Walsh game. Favre's interception in the NFC Championship. Even going back to the 1998 15-1 season that ended on another missed kick. The sex boat scandal. Never getting a Super Bowl out of Randy Moss. While there are plenty of low points, they've also had some fun teams, players and moments. Culpepper, Moss, Favre, Peterson, Cook. They win a lot. And they got the Minnesota Miracle.
19. Cowboys
The biggest Cowboys memory I have this century is the Romo botched hold. But they also went from Romo to Dak and are usually competitive. They were the benefit of the Lions picked up flag but then went on to run into their own Dez catch controversy. Kind of feels like this team is in purgatory. Never all the way good, never all the way bad.
So Close Division
This is the grouping for teams who's last two decades are defined by a Super Bowl loss. Having a season where you make the Super Bowl is great. But to lose and not have a recent title has to sting. I already covered the Falcons where the way they lost moved them into the Brutal Division. Here are teams that can at least remember a good run and/or hope for another.
18. Cardinals
For a team that has a reputation of a basement-dweller, they've actually had some decent moments. Their playoff run and Super Bowl lives on and I still respect it, even without the title. They out-dueled prime Rodgers and the Packers in the playoffs—twice. They had Warner-Fitzgerald and now over a decade later they have Murray-Fitzgerald. I mean that's nuts. Build the Larry Fitzgerald statue.
17. Bears
The year is 2080. Every quarterback in the NFL is named Allen. The Bears have a great defense and a bad quarterback. This is their identity and so it shall be. In 2006, that defense and special teams took them to the Super Bowl. Hester gave them the fastest score in SB history and the lead over Peyton Manning. Rex Grossman threw a touchdown pass in the Super Bowl. (Also two interceptions.) This team never gets your hopes all the way up and that's a good thing.
16. Panthers
These SB losses probably sting more than I know, especially if Cam is never healthy SuperCam again. But they've had a number of entertaining seasons, and they still have CMC, the only running back candidate with an MVP case in recent history.
15. Rams
This is a complicated one. For the Raiders and Chargers, it really felt like their fans were in one city and their team got moved away from that city. In this case, the Rams were in St. Louis for 20 years and won a Super Bowl back in 1999, just outside the window I'm focused on. But they were in L.A. before and had fans there too. They've had a number of sucky years but have now built a contender. All in all, it's a mixed bag. If you're a St. Louis fan, your team left but did win a Super Bowl. If you're an L.A. fan, they just lost the Super Bowl but have reason to expect they can go back.
Hope on the Horizon Division
These teams haven't won a title in the last 20 years, but they at least have reason for optimism.
14. Texans
They've been a team since 2002 but haven't made it to a Conference Championship game. But they have three playoff wins this decade and they have Deshaun Watson. Just keep him healthy. And while they haven't reached the pinnacle yet, they also haven't felt the sting of a Super Bowl loss or gut-punch playoff losses.
13. 49ers
If I made this list in the offseason, the 49ers wouldn't be this high. But they have a young roster with stars and it seems like a franchise QB. Yes, they too had a Super Bowl loss. But honestly, I forgot about that. That's not what's defining this team at the moment.
12. Chiefs
I promise the point of this was not to proclaim that being a Chiefs fan is the best of all the teams without a recent title. As of 2015, they were in the same boat with Bengals and Lions for playoff win droughts. They won one, then traded up to draft Mahomes and you've got to like their chances in the next decade.
Still Counts Division
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I'd rather have a genuine Super Bowl win in recent memory than a great roster because you never know what's going to happen.
11. Bucs (1 title)
The last time this team won a playoff game was the 2002 Super Bowl. Since then they've been pretty awful and somehow the Jameis Winston era is going kind of like the Josh Freeman era. (Neither one even made it to the playoffs.) But still that Super Bowl win. That defense is remembered fondly. Now in another 10 years, this ranking would get a lot bleaker.
10. Giants (2 titles)
From here on in, all of the fans of these teams have been fortunate. The Giants have won two titles, more than some of the teams I've ranked as higher. Mostly due to the lack of hope moving forward. Despite getting Saquon Barkley, I don't see this team being a Super Bowl contender in the near future. They got two titles out of Eli, which is incredible, and both were over the greatest dynasty of this century. Enough to hold your head high for sure.
9. Broncos (1 title)
Not only did they win a Super Bowl with Peyton, they also won two in the late 90's with Elway. Even if it's beyond what I'm counting, it's still there for people old enough to remember it. They have a cool gimmick with Mile High and they've had a good team and stars like Von Miller. So that's all good stuff. They also got blown out in the Super Bowl AND had the brutal playoff loss with Flacco to Jacoby Jones over Rahim Moore. And moving forward, Elway has shown he sucks at picking QBs.
Champs + Still Good Division
Once you look at the league like this it's super unfair that some teams have recent titles and are still good and so many teams have no titles and are still dogshit. All of these fans are living the dream.
8. Eagles (1 title)
This team has won 14 playoff games since 2000. McNabb. Owens. Vick. Foles. Jackson. Wentz. Foles again. After all those times falling short, they enter Super Bowl LII as a big underdog and Philly Special their way to an all-time classic win. And they still have Wentz and a good team. Honestly, that's a great experience.
7. Saints (1 title)
A team like the Steelers had decades of success and titles and the expectation of winning. The Saints were the Aints. When you're at the bottom and then you reach the top, it's so much sweeter. (The Saints first playoff win was in 2000. They entered the league in 1967. Holy shit.) And then Hurricane Katrina destroyed the city. What happened next? They hired Sean Payton. They signed Drew Brees. Their home opener in the restored Superdome is the stuff of legends. And then they go out and win the freaking Super Bowl. Of course, since then they were on the wrong side of the Minnesota Miracle and then a No-Call so bad the league changed their challenge rules. They still have a Super Bowl window with Drew Brees but it's closing.
6. Colts (1 title)
Most teams dream of the chance of getting a franchise quarterback. When the Bucs drafted Winston and Titans drafted Mariota, they're crossing their fingers that those losing seasons were worth it. The Colts draft Peyton Manning (you know the guy who's #1 in all-time passing touchdowns) and then the one year of his 17-year career that he doesn't play, the Colts suck and draft Luck. A QB prospect so surefire that they Colts give up on 4 more years of Peyton Manning. Then Luck retires prematurely, but the Colts still have a good GM and roster. Oh yeah, and they won a Super Bowl.
5. Packers (1 title)
If you just read the Manning to Luck story, the Favre to Rodgers story will seem all too familiar. The Packers won a Super Bowl with Favre in the 90's and then win a Super Bowl with Rodgers in 2010. The only downside is that Rodgers is so good, you'd have expected this team to win more than one title. Still legendary stadium, great fan experience, no signs of slowing down.
4. Seahawks (1 title)
In the early part of this century, Seattle was in the So Close Division, suffering a Super Bowl loss to the Steelers. Then they got Marshawn Lynch's Beastquake. Then they drafted Russell Wilson and built the Legion of Boom. The 49ers tried to throw a fade to a mediocre receiver and the Seahawks blew out the Broncos 43-8. Of course, they next year they could have handed the ball to Lynch and won another Super Bowl but didn't. Still, Wilson has a good roster around him and this team should be a contender throughout the next decade.
3. Steelers (2 titles)
I think Pittsburgh has the best case of a franchise built through multiple, smart coaches. They're always a solid team, even when players get injured or whatever challenges they've faced. Big Ben won two Super Bowls during Brady's prime. And even beyond Big Ben, I'm sure this team will be well-coached and a tough out.
2. Ravens (2 titles)
Their Colts left for Indianapolis and Baltimore was without a team for almost two decades. Then they get the Browns but give them a cool name, logo and color scheme. They made purple look cool, while the Vikings have not. They win the Super Bowl with a historic defense that everyone still hails as the gold standard. Then in 2012 they actually turn Flacco's hail mary over the Broncos into another Super Bowl win. It always bothers me when great plays or comebacks don't end up as titles (Illinois vs Arizona 2005 comes to mind) so when you see a play like that create a title, it's awesome. They get the nod over the Steelers because one team has Lamar Jackson and one has Mason Rudolph.
1. Patriots (6 titles)
Look, I hate Patriots fans. They're smug, self-entitled assholes. But being a Patriots fan? It's gotta be lots of fun. You get to have conversations around most successful team of all time and greatest QB of all time. And there's enough Super Bowl losses that they shouldn't take Super Bowl wins for granted. If they only had 3 titles, there could be a case that it might be more fun to be Steelers or Ravens or Giants, teams that have taken down the Evil Empire and all that. But with 6 titles, there's really no argument to be made. Patriot fans have had the most fun.
I'm choosing to focus on the last 20 years as I'm in mid-30's and that's my frame of reference. But also the world we're in is a what have you done for me lately kind of world. In my head, Cowboys dynasty of the 90's is beyond what feels like recent history, while Tom Brady's first Super Bowl still feels like recent history in part because he's still in the league. Hopefully that makes sense. Also, the St. Louis Rams won Super Bowl XXXIV but the Rams aren't in St. Louis in anymore, so it's good dividing point as well.
Brutal Division
To determine what's the worst team to be a fan of you have to weigh a lot of factors: playoff win droughts, Super Bowl losses, even team relocation. Is it worse to get tantalizingly close and then collapse in heartbreaking fashion or is it worse to never even have hope in the first place? Does hope outweigh everything else, considering we're only talking about bad teams? Amazingly, there's 10 teams here in this division and almost all of them have a viable case for why they should be ranked the worst.
32. Browns
They've won the least games in the NFL since 2000 and it's not close. They went 0-16. Their last playoff win was 1995. Not only that, they've only been to the playoffs once since then, in 2003. That's just incredibly brutal. Browns football is misery, year after year. They know they're going to suck and then they suck. Their QB history is nightmare fuel. You could make the argument that being a Lions fan is worse because the Browns never get their hopes up. Even when they tank and draft a QB #1 and trade for Odell, they still stink. But here's what puts the Browns over the top: Their team was moved to Baltimore and won a Super Bowl within five years.
31. Lions
The Lions really are Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. They get generational players like Sanders and Megatron only for them to retire in their prime. They've had 11 seasons of Matt Stafford who at times plays like a MVP and others like a benchwarmer. Orlovsky ran out of the end zone. Marty Mornhinweg picked the wind in sudden death. They went 0-16 before it was cool. Their last playoff win was 1991. And just when you think they're about to win a playoff game, the refs pick up the flag.
30. Bengals
They own the longest playoff win drought in the NFL. Their last 7 playoff games have been losses. 4 of them at home. And yet, they're not at the bottom of the NFL in wins. They're middle of the pack. They went 12-4 in 2015! They were about to win a playoff game over their hated rival Steelers, when back to back personal fouls pushed the Steelers into field goal range. Losing over and over in the playoffs is so goddamn painful, because you can't even enjoy winning the division knowing what's about to happen.
29. Falcons
They've had a lot of winning seasons with talented rosters. And yet when it came to the playoffs, it always ended it heartbreak. They've been a team for 54 years and never won a Super Bowl. They finally overcome playoff struggles and make the Super Bowl for the first time this century. And then it happens. 28-3 is a joke that will live on and on. To be that close to the entire goal and choke it away just has to be the worst feeling in the world. If that happened to me, I honestly don't know how I could continue to root for this team or watch football at all.
28. Chargers
Despite winning a ton and haven't great players to watch, this team has a double whammy. They never even got to the conference championship round despite so many chances. AND the freaking team left San Diego. For Chargers fans in San Diego that feeling of abandonment is almost as bad as 28-3. Although, you could still watch on TV and it's not that far away. So that's why I've got their experience better than the Falcons.
27. Raiders
I didn't initially think they would fit in the Brutal Division, but here's their playoff history this century: Wild-card loss in 2016, then a Super Bowl loss in 2002, then the Tuck Rule loss in 2001. It's got a little bit of everything: playoff drought, SB loss, and a feeling of being cheated. The Antonio Brown saga was awful. Oh yeah, and they're moving to Vegas. That's two out of three Oakland teams leaving in the same year.
26. Washington
Let's see: terrible owner. No hope on the horizon. Racist team name generating controversy every year. Long playoff win drought. And they had a genuinely exciting player in RG3 and ruined him.
25. Jets
Buttfumble. Mono. Drunk Namath. It really is incredible how many teams are more punchlines than football programs. They're even the little brother to a team in the same stadium that's won two titles. They had a glimmer of hope with Rex Ryan and Sanchez but never made it to a Super Bowl. And Sam Darnold as a savior isn't quite panning out yet.
24. Dolphins
Okay, so they haven't won a playoff game since 2000. And this year they became a national punchline. But also they have a TON of draft capital. And they had the Miami Miracle too.
23. Bills
Bills fans seem to have lots of fun. They have great tailgates. They know how to spice up a Patriots game. Occasionally they have a game in the snow that is incredible to watch. They have times when they're frisky on the field. The knock on them is their last playoff win was 1995. But it doesn't seem to bring them down.
Merely Bad Division
We're finally out of gut-wrenching territory. Really says something that for 10 teams in the NFL, misery is the defining emotion.
22. Jaguars
They've only made the playoffs three times in two decades, so it's been a tough road. But they did have a strong recent run and built a defensive identity. They also had Minshew Mania which at least counts for something. The haven't had a ton to root for, but at least they're not in the brutal division.
21. Titans
Their first season in Tennessee was as the Tennessee Oilers in Memphis. The following season they were the Tennessee Oilers in Nashville. It was their third season, that they finally become the Tennessee Titans. And that year they got the Music City Miracle and went to the Super Bowl. Since then they've mostly been mediocre but have had three separate years with playoff wins.
Up and Down Division
Both of these teams have had highs and lows.
20. Vikings
I bet if you asked Vikings fans, plenty would be arguing they should be ranked worse on this list. The Blair Walsh game. Favre's interception in the NFC Championship. Even going back to the 1998 15-1 season that ended on another missed kick. The sex boat scandal. Never getting a Super Bowl out of Randy Moss. While there are plenty of low points, they've also had some fun teams, players and moments. Culpepper, Moss, Favre, Peterson, Cook. They win a lot. And they got the Minnesota Miracle.
19. Cowboys
The biggest Cowboys memory I have this century is the Romo botched hold. But they also went from Romo to Dak and are usually competitive. They were the benefit of the Lions picked up flag but then went on to run into their own Dez catch controversy. Kind of feels like this team is in purgatory. Never all the way good, never all the way bad.
So Close Division
This is the grouping for teams who's last two decades are defined by a Super Bowl loss. Having a season where you make the Super Bowl is great. But to lose and not have a recent title has to sting. I already covered the Falcons where the way they lost moved them into the Brutal Division. Here are teams that can at least remember a good run and/or hope for another.
18. Cardinals
For a team that has a reputation of a basement-dweller, they've actually had some decent moments. Their playoff run and Super Bowl lives on and I still respect it, even without the title. They out-dueled prime Rodgers and the Packers in the playoffs—twice. They had Warner-Fitzgerald and now over a decade later they have Murray-Fitzgerald. I mean that's nuts. Build the Larry Fitzgerald statue.
17. Bears
The year is 2080. Every quarterback in the NFL is named Allen. The Bears have a great defense and a bad quarterback. This is their identity and so it shall be. In 2006, that defense and special teams took them to the Super Bowl. Hester gave them the fastest score in SB history and the lead over Peyton Manning. Rex Grossman threw a touchdown pass in the Super Bowl. (Also two interceptions.) This team never gets your hopes all the way up and that's a good thing.
16. Panthers
These SB losses probably sting more than I know, especially if Cam is never healthy SuperCam again. But they've had a number of entertaining seasons, and they still have CMC, the only running back candidate with an MVP case in recent history.
15. Rams
This is a complicated one. For the Raiders and Chargers, it really felt like their fans were in one city and their team got moved away from that city. In this case, the Rams were in St. Louis for 20 years and won a Super Bowl back in 1999, just outside the window I'm focused on. But they were in L.A. before and had fans there too. They've had a number of sucky years but have now built a contender. All in all, it's a mixed bag. If you're a St. Louis fan, your team left but did win a Super Bowl. If you're an L.A. fan, they just lost the Super Bowl but have reason to expect they can go back.
Hope on the Horizon Division
These teams haven't won a title in the last 20 years, but they at least have reason for optimism.
14. Texans
They've been a team since 2002 but haven't made it to a Conference Championship game. But they have three playoff wins this decade and they have Deshaun Watson. Just keep him healthy. And while they haven't reached the pinnacle yet, they also haven't felt the sting of a Super Bowl loss or gut-punch playoff losses.
13. 49ers
If I made this list in the offseason, the 49ers wouldn't be this high. But they have a young roster with stars and it seems like a franchise QB. Yes, they too had a Super Bowl loss. But honestly, I forgot about that. That's not what's defining this team at the moment.
12. Chiefs
I promise the point of this was not to proclaim that being a Chiefs fan is the best of all the teams without a recent title. As of 2015, they were in the same boat with Bengals and Lions for playoff win droughts. They won one, then traded up to draft Mahomes and you've got to like their chances in the next decade.
Still Counts Division
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I'd rather have a genuine Super Bowl win in recent memory than a great roster because you never know what's going to happen.
11. Bucs (1 title)
The last time this team won a playoff game was the 2002 Super Bowl. Since then they've been pretty awful and somehow the Jameis Winston era is going kind of like the Josh Freeman era. (Neither one even made it to the playoffs.) But still that Super Bowl win. That defense is remembered fondly. Now in another 10 years, this ranking would get a lot bleaker.
10. Giants (2 titles)
From here on in, all of the fans of these teams have been fortunate. The Giants have won two titles, more than some of the teams I've ranked as higher. Mostly due to the lack of hope moving forward. Despite getting Saquon Barkley, I don't see this team being a Super Bowl contender in the near future. They got two titles out of Eli, which is incredible, and both were over the greatest dynasty of this century. Enough to hold your head high for sure.
9. Broncos (1 title)
Not only did they win a Super Bowl with Peyton, they also won two in the late 90's with Elway. Even if it's beyond what I'm counting, it's still there for people old enough to remember it. They have a cool gimmick with Mile High and they've had a good team and stars like Von Miller. So that's all good stuff. They also got blown out in the Super Bowl AND had the brutal playoff loss with Flacco to Jacoby Jones over Rahim Moore. And moving forward, Elway has shown he sucks at picking QBs.
Champs + Still Good Division
Once you look at the league like this it's super unfair that some teams have recent titles and are still good and so many teams have no titles and are still dogshit. All of these fans are living the dream.
8. Eagles (1 title)
This team has won 14 playoff games since 2000. McNabb. Owens. Vick. Foles. Jackson. Wentz. Foles again. After all those times falling short, they enter Super Bowl LII as a big underdog and Philly Special their way to an all-time classic win. And they still have Wentz and a good team. Honestly, that's a great experience.
7. Saints (1 title)
A team like the Steelers had decades of success and titles and the expectation of winning. The Saints were the Aints. When you're at the bottom and then you reach the top, it's so much sweeter. (The Saints first playoff win was in 2000. They entered the league in 1967. Holy shit.) And then Hurricane Katrina destroyed the city. What happened next? They hired Sean Payton. They signed Drew Brees. Their home opener in the restored Superdome is the stuff of legends. And then they go out and win the freaking Super Bowl. Of course, since then they were on the wrong side of the Minnesota Miracle and then a No-Call so bad the league changed their challenge rules. They still have a Super Bowl window with Drew Brees but it's closing.
6. Colts (1 title)
Most teams dream of the chance of getting a franchise quarterback. When the Bucs drafted Winston and Titans drafted Mariota, they're crossing their fingers that those losing seasons were worth it. The Colts draft Peyton Manning (you know the guy who's #1 in all-time passing touchdowns) and then the one year of his 17-year career that he doesn't play, the Colts suck and draft Luck. A QB prospect so surefire that they Colts give up on 4 more years of Peyton Manning. Then Luck retires prematurely, but the Colts still have a good GM and roster. Oh yeah, and they won a Super Bowl.
5. Packers (1 title)
If you just read the Manning to Luck story, the Favre to Rodgers story will seem all too familiar. The Packers won a Super Bowl with Favre in the 90's and then win a Super Bowl with Rodgers in 2010. The only downside is that Rodgers is so good, you'd have expected this team to win more than one title. Still legendary stadium, great fan experience, no signs of slowing down.
4. Seahawks (1 title)
In the early part of this century, Seattle was in the So Close Division, suffering a Super Bowl loss to the Steelers. Then they got Marshawn Lynch's Beastquake. Then they drafted Russell Wilson and built the Legion of Boom. The 49ers tried to throw a fade to a mediocre receiver and the Seahawks blew out the Broncos 43-8. Of course, they next year they could have handed the ball to Lynch and won another Super Bowl but didn't. Still, Wilson has a good roster around him and this team should be a contender throughout the next decade.
3. Steelers (2 titles)
I think Pittsburgh has the best case of a franchise built through multiple, smart coaches. They're always a solid team, even when players get injured or whatever challenges they've faced. Big Ben won two Super Bowls during Brady's prime. And even beyond Big Ben, I'm sure this team will be well-coached and a tough out.
2. Ravens (2 titles)
Their Colts left for Indianapolis and Baltimore was without a team for almost two decades. Then they get the Browns but give them a cool name, logo and color scheme. They made purple look cool, while the Vikings have not. They win the Super Bowl with a historic defense that everyone still hails as the gold standard. Then in 2012 they actually turn Flacco's hail mary over the Broncos into another Super Bowl win. It always bothers me when great plays or comebacks don't end up as titles (Illinois vs Arizona 2005 comes to mind) so when you see a play like that create a title, it's awesome. They get the nod over the Steelers because one team has Lamar Jackson and one has Mason Rudolph.
1. Patriots (6 titles)
Look, I hate Patriots fans. They're smug, self-entitled assholes. But being a Patriots fan? It's gotta be lots of fun. You get to have conversations around most successful team of all time and greatest QB of all time. And there's enough Super Bowl losses that they shouldn't take Super Bowl wins for granted. If they only had 3 titles, there could be a case that it might be more fun to be Steelers or Ravens or Giants, teams that have taken down the Evil Empire and all that. But with 6 titles, there's really no argument to be made. Patriot fans have had the most fun.
Thursday, November 07, 2019
NFL Takeaways - Gambling Manifesto
This year, Mark and I added picking a spread to our fantasy football rosters. So far, I've earned 75 out of 90 points, he's earned 40 out of 90.
Here are some of my overall thoughts/guidelines on the league which can be helpful when picking spreads.
1. Don't be afraid of teams that just had an uncharacteristic bad game. Don't get suckered in by teams that had one impressive win.
Two weeks ago the Panthers got blown out on the road in SF. So this week against the Titans, they were only favored by 3.5. I thought that line was way too low. What have the Titans done?
Likewise, the Browns beat the Jets in week 2, 23-3. So in week 3, the Rams were only favored by 3 points over the Browns. I thought the Rams were on a different level than the Browns and picked them to cover the 3.
2. Be wary of QB changes, when the first QB isn't that good.
The Broncos and Flacco are bad. Flacco got hurt last week sticking his neck out and would be out. The Browns were favored by 3.5 over the Broncos. I might have liked the Browns vs Flacco, but ruled them out when facing an unknown QB. Always be aware of the boost a team can get from benching a bad QB.
3. Be careful in the division.
The 49ers were favored by 10 over the Cardinals, in part because of their huge win over the Panthers (see #1). That seemed way too high for a division game. I thought Kyler Murray would steal a divisional game here or there and I like the Cardinals +10.
4. Don't be afraid of high lines against truly horrific teams.
I can see how this can backfire, but I went 3-0 backing the Pats over Dolphins (18.5), Chargers over Dolphins (16.5) and Eagles over Jets (13.5). Yes that's a ton of points, but when you recognize a historically bad team, go for it.
5. Don't be fooled thinking the Transitive Property exists in the NFL
The Chiefs beat the Ravens, the Ravens beat the Patriots, therefore the Chiefs will beat the Patriots, right? Nope. These circles break all the time. I don't pay attention to specific wins, just focus on the larger picture.
6. Bad teams will beat good teams, good teams will lose to bad teams.
The Browns (now 2-6) beat the Ravens (now 6-2). The Packers just lost to the Chargers. It happens. But the Browns don't become good when it does. This happens for the Titans and Bucs all the time. They win 1 or 2, and people will change their notion of them. They must be good now. No. I guess this is the same as my first point, but it's the biggest trap that people can fall into.
7. Be skeptical of some records.
The 49ers are good, but are they 9-0 good. I didn't think so. I thought they seemed more like an 8-1 team than a 9-0 team, plus the Seahawks are great. So I jumped all over Seahawks +6.5.
Here are some of my overall thoughts/guidelines on the league which can be helpful when picking spreads.
1. Don't be afraid of teams that just had an uncharacteristic bad game. Don't get suckered in by teams that had one impressive win.
Two weeks ago the Panthers got blown out on the road in SF. So this week against the Titans, they were only favored by 3.5. I thought that line was way too low. What have the Titans done?
Likewise, the Browns beat the Jets in week 2, 23-3. So in week 3, the Rams were only favored by 3 points over the Browns. I thought the Rams were on a different level than the Browns and picked them to cover the 3.
2. Be wary of QB changes, when the first QB isn't that good.
The Broncos and Flacco are bad. Flacco got hurt last week sticking his neck out and would be out. The Browns were favored by 3.5 over the Broncos. I might have liked the Browns vs Flacco, but ruled them out when facing an unknown QB. Always be aware of the boost a team can get from benching a bad QB.
3. Be careful in the division.
The 49ers were favored by 10 over the Cardinals, in part because of their huge win over the Panthers (see #1). That seemed way too high for a division game. I thought Kyler Murray would steal a divisional game here or there and I like the Cardinals +10.
4. Don't be afraid of high lines against truly horrific teams.
I can see how this can backfire, but I went 3-0 backing the Pats over Dolphins (18.5), Chargers over Dolphins (16.5) and Eagles over Jets (13.5). Yes that's a ton of points, but when you recognize a historically bad team, go for it.
5. Don't be fooled thinking the Transitive Property exists in the NFL
The Chiefs beat the Ravens, the Ravens beat the Patriots, therefore the Chiefs will beat the Patriots, right? Nope. These circles break all the time. I don't pay attention to specific wins, just focus on the larger picture.
6. Bad teams will beat good teams, good teams will lose to bad teams.
The Browns (now 2-6) beat the Ravens (now 6-2). The Packers just lost to the Chargers. It happens. But the Browns don't become good when it does. This happens for the Titans and Bucs all the time. They win 1 or 2, and people will change their notion of them. They must be good now. No. I guess this is the same as my first point, but it's the biggest trap that people can fall into.
7. Be skeptical of some records.
The 49ers are good, but are they 9-0 good. I didn't think so. I thought they seemed more like an 8-1 team than a 9-0 team, plus the Seahawks are great. So I jumped all over Seahawks +6.5.
Tuesday, November 05, 2019
State of Optimism for Illinois Football and Basketball?
Let's take a look at Illinois Football since 2000. Their 20th season is still in process, so we'll come back to that. In the previous 19:
Big Ten Record
Winning Seasons: 2
.500 Seasons: 2
Losing Seasons: 15
Overall Record
Winning Seasons: 4
Losing Seasons: 15
(That overall record got a boost from two seasons where they won bowl games after going 6-6.)
So in short, not great.
The last winning season was 2011 under Ron Zook. The last Big Ten winning season, was 2007, also under Zook.
They've only made 5 bowl games in 19 years.
And yet, two of those bowl games were BCS Bowls.
Take a team like K-State. They've made bowl games in 13 out of 19 seasons. That's a solid program. They've made two BCS Bowls, just like Illinois.
So Illinois is mostly bad, but can sometimes hit pretty big. Which is why I've said this:
Of course, not everyone sees it that way. One person, in particular holds out hope that Illinois can rebuild/change the program identity like Wisconsin did. From 1963 to 1992, Wisconsin only made three bowl games (81-84). Since 1993, they've only missed a bowl twice. From dumpster to powerhouse. That person I mentioned is on twitter as @Alioneye and back when Lovie got hired he envisioned Michigan coming to Champaign as the turning point. Transcript from a podcast back in 2016:
Robert: "My Twitter bio has October 12, 2019 when Michigan comes to Champaign. I set that a few days after Lovie was hired and I said 'that is the moment that things start to turn around for Illinois football'. I had been waiting to set a moment for 25 years, and October 12th of 2019 is it."
Host: "Wow - calling your shot."
Robert: "Yes, I've called my shot and put it in my Twitter bio."
My reaction two years ago was this:
And then this year, Illinois couldn't beat Eastern Michigan, a last place MAC team.
Illinois was in position to beat Nebraska, up 35-21 in the 3d quarter, but ended up losing.
And that famous Michigan game? It was 28-0 Michigan early. Illinois did reel off 25 straight points to get back in it, but lost 42-25. It was kind of fun to see Michigan twitter meltdown as it looked like Illinois might beat them but it was also embarrassing that just winning by 17 over Illinois is cause for panic.
So The Illini were 2-4 entering a contest against Wisconsin who was ranked 6th in the country. Great choice for an Illinois homecoming game, guys.
No seriously, great choice for the homecoming game. Look at this still:
It looks like Wisconsin is about to go up 27-14. But that's not what happened. That's a game saving tackle.
And then Illinois went out and beat Purdue and Rutgers and here we are. 5-4 on the year. 3-3 in the Big Ten. 3 games to go.
Win one and you're going bowling.
Win two and you've got a winning record in the Big Ten.
How are they doing this?
And then Illinois went out and beat Purdue and Rutgers and here we are. 5-4 on the year. 3-3 in the Big Ten. 3 games to go.
Win one and you're going bowling.
Win two and you've got a winning record in the Big Ten.
How are they doing this?
Those aren't Big Ten ranks. That's 1st in the country. Illinois football has an identity now? That's something.
Is this team good?
Sagarin has us 77th in the country.
Massey has us 66th in the country, ahead of Nebraska.
Football Outsiders has us 58th in the country.
Seems like we are who we think we are*, a decent team worthy of one of the 40 bowl games.
* = Lovie Smith was in fact the head coach for the Bears that Dennis Green said are who he thought they were.
I don't think Illinois will ever compete consistently at the top of the Big Ten, but it would be nice if they could be in the top 2 or 3 of their division. Here's that division by the way:
Beating Wisconsin was a huge upset, but there were also 2 games they should have won. Building to where Iowa is, isn't out of the question.
And for this year, it starts with getting to a bowl game.
- - -
Meanwhile, across Kirby Avenue at the State Farm Center, Illinois basketball tips off their season tonight. They haven't made the tournament in their last 5 seasons, but experts are predicting that to change this year.
Of course, to do that you have to start strong, racking up those non-conference wins. Their first real test will be in their 3rd game, at Arizona on Sunday. Let's do it.
Is this team good?
Sagarin has us 77th in the country.
Massey has us 66th in the country, ahead of Nebraska.
Football Outsiders has us 58th in the country.
Seems like we are who we think we are*, a decent team worthy of one of the 40 bowl games.
* = Lovie Smith was in fact the head coach for the Bears that Dennis Green said are who he thought they were.
I don't think Illinois will ever compete consistently at the top of the Big Ten, but it would be nice if they could be in the top 2 or 3 of their division. Here's that division by the way:
And for this year, it starts with getting to a bowl game.
- - -
Meanwhile, across Kirby Avenue at the State Farm Center, Illinois basketball tips off their season tonight. They haven't made the tournament in their last 5 seasons, but experts are predicting that to change this year.
Of course, to do that you have to start strong, racking up those non-conference wins. Their first real test will be in their 3rd game, at Arizona on Sunday. Let's do it.
Monday, November 04, 2019
Road to Super Bowl LIV: Chapter 3
The Chiefs started this year 4-0. Early on, I was only focused on whether the Chiefs could have a better record than the Pats and grab the #1 seed and homefield. I was tracking Mahomes on pace numbers, and he was the favorite for league MVP.
Then the Chiefs lost two games (Colts and Texans) in part because Mahomes was reaggravating his ankle injury, in part because there were a ton of injuries all over specifically the O-line and D-line, and the run D got exposed as a huge liability. And then, the number one thing you don't want to happen, Mahomes gets seriously injured and has to miss significant time.
He got injured with 10 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter in a game the Chiefs were leading 10-6 in Denver. (Lost in the injury, Mahomes did pick up the 4th and 1 on the QB sneak.) At the point of the injury, the Chiefs were 4-2, clinging to a small lead on the road. He was immediately ruled out. The first timetable speculated that he could return after the bye. Counting the Denver game that still had 40 minutes to play out, that's 5 games hanging in the balance.
Lose them all and your 4-0 start is now 4-7.
Here's a famous quote. When asked why he wasn't giving some snaps to Peyton's backups, Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore said, "Fellas, if '18' goes down, we're fucked. And we don't practice fucked."
Great quote. And one that the Chiefs apparently abided by, as Matt Moore had exactly 0 reps with the starters. The first time Matt Moore had thrown a pass to Kelce was during the Denver game.
In a league where we've been taught that Quarterbacks are everything, it's not hard to imagine Moore throwing picks and losing 5 games for a team that just lost two in a row with the league MVP.
But that's not what happened.
On the very first drive following the Mahomes injury, the Chiefs D stepped it up. Hitchens knocked the ball out of Flacco's hands and Ragland scooped it up for a TD.
And then in the second half, Moore lofted a perfect 30-yard pass over the defense to Hill who had daylight in front of him. The final in Denver was 30-6. The D pitched a shutout and Moore made nice plays. (Fun fact, Hill had missed some of the early games and while he was rehabbing with the backups he was receiving passes from...Matt Moore.)
The next week was a great back and forth game vs the Packers. The Chiefs were in it to the end, but Rodgers and Jones made a bunch of spectacular plays and the Packers edged the Chiefs. The KC D looked improved despite the loss and Moore played well enough to win.
Then the Vikings came to town. The KC defense was again better than it had been against the Colts/Texans. Moore played well again.
But here's the thing I want to say about the game. If you lose this game, those strong performances are all for naught. If you lose to the Packers and Vikings, both home games, it doesn't matter that you were close. You can get blown out like the Panthers did by the 49ers or lose close like Chiefs did to the Packers and it counts the same in the standings. And it would be a real shame to have improved defense and good QB play, but drop two home games in a row. I'd much rather be like the Panthers and get blown out but win the following week.
So yesterday's game was huge.
- - -
I came in not knowing what to expect. After a big strike from Moore to Hill, I was pleased. And at the half, it was 10-10. Pretty comfortable.
Hardman fumbling the 2nd half kickoff was deflating, followed by a quick Vikings TD. But they missed the extra point. That was promising. The Chiefs would follow with two scores, making it 20-16 KC. That included a Williams 91-yard TD run. Longest in the league this year. Tied Charles for longest in franchise history.
At this point, up 20-16, entering the 4th, I expected to win. I wanted, needed this win.
The Vikings get a TD making it 23-20.
Pivotal Event #1
With 9 minutes to go, Williams converts a 3rd and 1 to the MIN 39. Except there's a flag. Holding on Kelce. Replay shows he was grabbing the Viking by the chest, inside the framework as they say. So instead of being on the fringe of field goal range, KC has 3rd and 11 on their own 40. Then the Vikings fan in the crowd start a Skol chant. So the Chiefs fans try to drown them out with the Chop. Seriously? It's 3rd and 11 and the Chiefs have the ball. It's so loud, Cam Erving commits a false start. Viking fans outsmarted and outmaneuvered Chiefs fans at Arrowhead. And then on 3rd and 16, the pass rush sacks Moore. Went from 1st and 10 on the MIN 39 to 4th and 27 on KC 24 in the blink of eye.
Pivotal Event #2
Seven minutes to go, Chiefs are down 3 and need a stop. On 2nd and 10, they get Cook for a 3 yard loss. And on 3rd and 13, the Vikings try to run again. 3 and out. Big stop.
Pivotal Event #3
Ensuing drive, Matt Moore goes to Hill on back-to-back plays. First to convert a 3rd and 7, and then a 41-yard bomb. Sometimes throwing it up for Hill is the best play. It's 1st and 10 inside the 20 and I'm thinking the 3 is guaranteed, let's get 7.
Pivotal Event #4
Two plays later it's 3rd and 13 and the Vikings send the house. It's so important, we're getting screenshots. Note the game clock. Play starts with 3:27.
At 3:26, Moore has a defender in his face.
At 3:25, Moore is hit and the ball is out.
Still at 3:25, Moore has hit the dirt. The ball is out, on the ground. The Viking that hit Moore is jumping over him while 97 is right there ready to get the ball.
At 3:24, Moore's momentum has carried him into this position. He looks dead. 97 is a step closer.
Still at 3:24, 97 is grabbing for the ball.
If the Vikings get the ball right there, odds are they run the clock out. Last week the Packers ran the ball out with 5 minutes left. But the Vikings don't get the ball. Moore is able to somehow recover the fumble. It's hard to say if he got the perfect bounce off the ground or he made a perfect grab with his right arm, or both, but he maintained possession. All of that to set up:
Pivotal Event #5
Harrison Butker now has a 54-yard field goal attempt. Let's flash back to his previous attempt. That one was a 45-yarder in heavy wind. Note the flags at the top of the uprights.
Here's where that kick started...
and here's where it ended up. That kick was good, moving a ton from his right to left.
So now it's the 4th quarter and it's time for the 54-yarder in crunch time. Announcer says he's 0 for 2 on the year from 50+. But I think he's going to make it.
Here it is on it's way: dead center.
And clearing it by a few yards.
And just like my point earlier...if you blow this game now, it was all for naught. 2:30 for the Vikings and they only need a field goal.
Pivotal Event #6
This time it's 3 pass attempts for Cousins and the Chiefs D holds to -7 yards. 3 and out. Punting on 4th and 17. The Vikings are scared of Hill and the punt goes out of bounds at the MIN 45.
Pivotal Event #7
On back to back Chiefs offensive plays, Moore is sacked immediately and fumbled. Poor blocking again. This time Williams recovers. But Chiefs are back on their own 44, 2nd and 21.
Big time throws to Kelce and then Hill gets them back in field goal range so Butker can do this:
Pivotal Event #8
He just made one from 54, so 44 shouldn't be a problem right? Well, unless the Vikings get a hand on it. Which they do.
The ball comes out wonky. It's not high and strong, it's low and wobbly. But it goes through all the same. Just incredible.
You go back and look at the 8 pivotal events I marked in the 4th quarter alone. The first killed a Chiefs drive. The next seven were all examples of Chiefs being good or lucky, or both at the same time. That's what it takes to complete a late comeback. And it was great to watch.
Defense came up big.
Offense came up big.
Special teams, coaching, all of it.
Some days, sports makes you question why you would bother investing time and money into an experience that is just as likely to ruin your day or bring you joy. And some days the question answers itself.
- - -
Points per Possessions, wins in bold
Week 1: Chiefs 4.44, Jaguars 2.88
Week 2: Chiefs 2.8, Raiders 1
Week 3: Chiefs 3.66, Ravens 3.11
Week 4: Chiefs 2.83, Lions 2.5
Week 5: Chiefs 1.44, Colts 2.11
Week 6: Chiefs 2.67, Texans 3.44
Week 7: Chiefs 2.5, Broncos .5
Week 8: Chiefs 2.67, Packers 3.44
Week 9: Chiefs 2.17, Vikings 1.92
I was hoping to draw conclusions about when the offense gets a certain number this happens, but it's not quite that clear. What is clear, is that you can assign credit/blame based on these numbers.
Week 1: Offense win
Week 2: Defense win
Week 3: Offense win
Week 4: Offense win
Week 5: Offense loss
Week 6: Defense loss
Week 7: Defense win
Week 8: Defense loss
Week 9: Defense win
In the 6 games Mahomes played, the credit/blame went to Offense 4 times and Offense was 3-1. Defense was 1-1.
In the 3 games Moore played, the credit/blame went to Defense all 3 times and Defense was 2-1.
Overall, Offense is 3-1 and Defense is 3-2.
All things considered, a pretty good sign for the playoffs.
Speaking of playoffs...
Here are the AFC teams that are .500 or better:
The Chiefs are going to win their division. Which means they'll be one of the top 4 teams and have a home playoff game in January. Assuming that the team stays healthy, the only team I'm afraid of is the Patriots. Now the Ravens did show that the Patriots are a mortal team and a product of an easy schedule, but still. I'd rather the Ravens knock out the Patriots in January and avoid playing New England all together.
If KC were to finish 13-3, that would include a win over NE and NE would likely drop at least one more, which would give KC homefield...but I don't think KC will win out. Too many games even with Mahomes coming back. 11-5 is realistic for KC.
Still possible that NE stumbles down the stretch, but I think they will still be the #1 seed at this point.
If that's true and I want the Ravens to face them, then I'm hoping Baltimore finishes 4th. Chiefs or Texans in 2/3 would be fine, but #2 gets a bye and the game at home.
(This of course hinges on the wild-card teams losing, which obviously could happen although I'm not expecting that right now, especially with the Brissett injury.)
Bottom line, even if NE takes the top seed, every win matters as you'd rather be 2 than 3, and 3 instead of 4.
- - -
Around the league this year we've seen backups do well (Brissett, Minshew, Moore, Allen in Carolina) just as much as we've seen starters be disappointing (Trubisky, Dalton, Mayfield, Darnold).
In fact, let's look at some numbers for fun. Here's the whole league sorted by adjusted net yards per attempt.
So there's consensus 2019 MVP favorite Russell Wilson there at #2.
For a bit of context, a middle of the pack running back is averaging 4.4 yards per carry in 2019. So Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen are the only two quarterbacks who are worse than running the ball.
Let's say I wanted to find the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. I can't count Rosen. So your Mount Rushmore of Shit QBs this year are Darnold, Trubisky, Mayfield and Jones.
Jimmy G is a top 10 QB. Brissett and Minshew are knocking on the door, ahead of Lamar and Brady.
Matt Moore's not on the above chart because of small sample size, but here's his stats:
If he qualified, he'd be 13th in the league, above Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady. Fun!
So what does that say that Matt Moore who was never really a starter and was out of the league last year can come in and be better than these guys? Coaching matters. I bet Mayfield and Trubisky would do really well under Andy Reid and if Mahomes had been drafted by the Bengals, his stats would probably be middle of the pack.
- - -
And now that we've established how bad Trubisky is...I'll end on a positive note for the Chiefs pass defense.
Then the Chiefs lost two games (Colts and Texans) in part because Mahomes was reaggravating his ankle injury, in part because there were a ton of injuries all over specifically the O-line and D-line, and the run D got exposed as a huge liability. And then, the number one thing you don't want to happen, Mahomes gets seriously injured and has to miss significant time.
He got injured with 10 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter in a game the Chiefs were leading 10-6 in Denver. (Lost in the injury, Mahomes did pick up the 4th and 1 on the QB sneak.) At the point of the injury, the Chiefs were 4-2, clinging to a small lead on the road. He was immediately ruled out. The first timetable speculated that he could return after the bye. Counting the Denver game that still had 40 minutes to play out, that's 5 games hanging in the balance.
Lose them all and your 4-0 start is now 4-7.
Here's a famous quote. When asked why he wasn't giving some snaps to Peyton's backups, Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore said, "Fellas, if '18' goes down, we're fucked. And we don't practice fucked."
Great quote. And one that the Chiefs apparently abided by, as Matt Moore had exactly 0 reps with the starters. The first time Matt Moore had thrown a pass to Kelce was during the Denver game.
In a league where we've been taught that Quarterbacks are everything, it's not hard to imagine Moore throwing picks and losing 5 games for a team that just lost two in a row with the league MVP.
But that's not what happened.
On the very first drive following the Mahomes injury, the Chiefs D stepped it up. Hitchens knocked the ball out of Flacco's hands and Ragland scooped it up for a TD.
And then in the second half, Moore lofted a perfect 30-yard pass over the defense to Hill who had daylight in front of him. The final in Denver was 30-6. The D pitched a shutout and Moore made nice plays. (Fun fact, Hill had missed some of the early games and while he was rehabbing with the backups he was receiving passes from...Matt Moore.)
The next week was a great back and forth game vs the Packers. The Chiefs were in it to the end, but Rodgers and Jones made a bunch of spectacular plays and the Packers edged the Chiefs. The KC D looked improved despite the loss and Moore played well enough to win.
Then the Vikings came to town. The KC defense was again better than it had been against the Colts/Texans. Moore played well again.
But here's the thing I want to say about the game. If you lose this game, those strong performances are all for naught. If you lose to the Packers and Vikings, both home games, it doesn't matter that you were close. You can get blown out like the Panthers did by the 49ers or lose close like Chiefs did to the Packers and it counts the same in the standings. And it would be a real shame to have improved defense and good QB play, but drop two home games in a row. I'd much rather be like the Panthers and get blown out but win the following week.
So yesterday's game was huge.
- - -
I came in not knowing what to expect. After a big strike from Moore to Hill, I was pleased. And at the half, it was 10-10. Pretty comfortable.
Hardman fumbling the 2nd half kickoff was deflating, followed by a quick Vikings TD. But they missed the extra point. That was promising. The Chiefs would follow with two scores, making it 20-16 KC. That included a Williams 91-yard TD run. Longest in the league this year. Tied Charles for longest in franchise history.
At this point, up 20-16, entering the 4th, I expected to win. I wanted, needed this win.
The Vikings get a TD making it 23-20.
Pivotal Event #1
With 9 minutes to go, Williams converts a 3rd and 1 to the MIN 39. Except there's a flag. Holding on Kelce. Replay shows he was grabbing the Viking by the chest, inside the framework as they say. So instead of being on the fringe of field goal range, KC has 3rd and 11 on their own 40. Then the Vikings fan in the crowd start a Skol chant. So the Chiefs fans try to drown them out with the Chop. Seriously? It's 3rd and 11 and the Chiefs have the ball. It's so loud, Cam Erving commits a false start. Viking fans outsmarted and outmaneuvered Chiefs fans at Arrowhead. And then on 3rd and 16, the pass rush sacks Moore. Went from 1st and 10 on the MIN 39 to 4th and 27 on KC 24 in the blink of eye.
Pivotal Event #2
Seven minutes to go, Chiefs are down 3 and need a stop. On 2nd and 10, they get Cook for a 3 yard loss. And on 3rd and 13, the Vikings try to run again. 3 and out. Big stop.
Pivotal Event #3
Ensuing drive, Matt Moore goes to Hill on back-to-back plays. First to convert a 3rd and 7, and then a 41-yard bomb. Sometimes throwing it up for Hill is the best play. It's 1st and 10 inside the 20 and I'm thinking the 3 is guaranteed, let's get 7.
Pivotal Event #4
Two plays later it's 3rd and 13 and the Vikings send the house. It's so important, we're getting screenshots. Note the game clock. Play starts with 3:27.
At 3:26, Moore has a defender in his face.
At 3:25, Moore is hit and the ball is out.
Still at 3:25, Moore has hit the dirt. The ball is out, on the ground. The Viking that hit Moore is jumping over him while 97 is right there ready to get the ball.
At 3:24, Moore's momentum has carried him into this position. He looks dead. 97 is a step closer.
Still at 3:24, 97 is grabbing for the ball.
If the Vikings get the ball right there, odds are they run the clock out. Last week the Packers ran the ball out with 5 minutes left. But the Vikings don't get the ball. Moore is able to somehow recover the fumble. It's hard to say if he got the perfect bounce off the ground or he made a perfect grab with his right arm, or both, but he maintained possession. All of that to set up:
Pivotal Event #5
Harrison Butker now has a 54-yard field goal attempt. Let's flash back to his previous attempt. That one was a 45-yarder in heavy wind. Note the flags at the top of the uprights.
Here's where that kick started...
and here's where it ended up. That kick was good, moving a ton from his right to left.
So now it's the 4th quarter and it's time for the 54-yarder in crunch time. Announcer says he's 0 for 2 on the year from 50+. But I think he's going to make it.
Here it is on it's way: dead center.
And clearing it by a few yards.
And just like my point earlier...if you blow this game now, it was all for naught. 2:30 for the Vikings and they only need a field goal.
Pivotal Event #6
This time it's 3 pass attempts for Cousins and the Chiefs D holds to -7 yards. 3 and out. Punting on 4th and 17. The Vikings are scared of Hill and the punt goes out of bounds at the MIN 45.
Pivotal Event #7
On back to back Chiefs offensive plays, Moore is sacked immediately and fumbled. Poor blocking again. This time Williams recovers. But Chiefs are back on their own 44, 2nd and 21.
Big time throws to Kelce and then Hill gets them back in field goal range so Butker can do this:
Pivotal Event #8
He just made one from 54, so 44 shouldn't be a problem right? Well, unless the Vikings get a hand on it. Which they do.
The ball comes out wonky. It's not high and strong, it's low and wobbly. But it goes through all the same. Just incredible.
You go back and look at the 8 pivotal events I marked in the 4th quarter alone. The first killed a Chiefs drive. The next seven were all examples of Chiefs being good or lucky, or both at the same time. That's what it takes to complete a late comeback. And it was great to watch.
Defense came up big.
Offense came up big.
Special teams, coaching, all of it.
Some days, sports makes you question why you would bother investing time and money into an experience that is just as likely to ruin your day or bring you joy. And some days the question answers itself.
- - -
Points per Possessions, wins in bold
Week 1: Chiefs 4.44, Jaguars 2.88
Week 2: Chiefs 2.8, Raiders 1
Week 3: Chiefs 3.66, Ravens 3.11
Week 4: Chiefs 2.83, Lions 2.5
Week 5: Chiefs 1.44, Colts 2.11
Week 6: Chiefs 2.67, Texans 3.44
Week 7: Chiefs 2.5, Broncos .5
Week 8: Chiefs 2.67, Packers 3.44
Week 9: Chiefs 2.17, Vikings 1.92
I was hoping to draw conclusions about when the offense gets a certain number this happens, but it's not quite that clear. What is clear, is that you can assign credit/blame based on these numbers.
Week 1: Offense win
Week 2: Defense win
Week 3: Offense win
Week 4: Offense win
Week 5: Offense loss
Week 6: Defense loss
Week 7: Defense win
Week 8: Defense loss
Week 9: Defense win
In the 6 games Mahomes played, the credit/blame went to Offense 4 times and Offense was 3-1. Defense was 1-1.
In the 3 games Moore played, the credit/blame went to Defense all 3 times and Defense was 2-1.
Overall, Offense is 3-1 and Defense is 3-2.
All things considered, a pretty good sign for the playoffs.
Speaking of playoffs...
Here are the AFC teams that are .500 or better:
The Chiefs are going to win their division. Which means they'll be one of the top 4 teams and have a home playoff game in January. Assuming that the team stays healthy, the only team I'm afraid of is the Patriots. Now the Ravens did show that the Patriots are a mortal team and a product of an easy schedule, but still. I'd rather the Ravens knock out the Patriots in January and avoid playing New England all together.
If KC were to finish 13-3, that would include a win over NE and NE would likely drop at least one more, which would give KC homefield...but I don't think KC will win out. Too many games even with Mahomes coming back. 11-5 is realistic for KC.
Still possible that NE stumbles down the stretch, but I think they will still be the #1 seed at this point.
If that's true and I want the Ravens to face them, then I'm hoping Baltimore finishes 4th. Chiefs or Texans in 2/3 would be fine, but #2 gets a bye and the game at home.
(This of course hinges on the wild-card teams losing, which obviously could happen although I'm not expecting that right now, especially with the Brissett injury.)
Bottom line, even if NE takes the top seed, every win matters as you'd rather be 2 than 3, and 3 instead of 4.
- - -
Around the league this year we've seen backups do well (Brissett, Minshew, Moore, Allen in Carolina) just as much as we've seen starters be disappointing (Trubisky, Dalton, Mayfield, Darnold).
In fact, let's look at some numbers for fun. Here's the whole league sorted by adjusted net yards per attempt.
(click to read in HD)
So there's consensus 2019 MVP favorite Russell Wilson there at #2.
For a bit of context, a middle of the pack running back is averaging 4.4 yards per carry in 2019. So Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen are the only two quarterbacks who are worse than running the ball.
Let's say I wanted to find the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. I can't count Rosen. So your Mount Rushmore of Shit QBs this year are Darnold, Trubisky, Mayfield and Jones.
Jimmy G is a top 10 QB. Brissett and Minshew are knocking on the door, ahead of Lamar and Brady.
Matt Moore's not on the above chart because of small sample size, but here's his stats:
If he qualified, he'd be 13th in the league, above Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady. Fun!
So what does that say that Matt Moore who was never really a starter and was out of the league last year can come in and be better than these guys? Coaching matters. I bet Mayfield and Trubisky would do really well under Andy Reid and if Mahomes had been drafted by the Bengals, his stats would probably be middle of the pack.
- - -
And now that we've established how bad Trubisky is...I'll end on a positive note for the Chiefs pass defense.
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