Let's talk about the actual game.
Bills open the game looking real nervous, Allen almost has two picks, 3 and out.
Then Chiefs go 90 yards on 9 plays, without even seeing 3rd down. Kareem Hunt TD and it's a perfect start for the Chiefs.
Bills answer back, kicking a field goal on 4th and 5.
Chiefs drive again but fumble at the Bills 23.
Bills overcome a 2nd and 20 to score a TD, take the lead 10-7. First lead change.
Ensuing drive, Chiefs have a 4th and 1 on their own 39. Bad options include punting away, not getting it and setting up Bills in great position. But Chiefs convert the first 4th down of the game. Leads to another TD. Second lead change, Chiefs up 14-10.
Bills answer with a 3 and out, their second of the game. They had 4th and 10 from the Bills 30. Remigio returns it to the Bills 34. 45 yard punt, 41 yard return, 4 yard net.
Chiefs score a TD and extend their lead to 21-10. They started the drive with 3:39 on the clock. They scored with 1:55 left. I would have loved to see the Chiefs burn more clock. (Incidentally this was the sequence with the "controversial" pass that was a simultaneous catch plus the ball hit the ground. How it was ruled actually helps the Bills, preserving more clock.)
Bills come out and have their best drive. 7 plays, 73 yards for the TD, in 1:32, didn't see a 3rd down. It's 16-21, pending the conversion. The PAT is good, but there's a penalty. Huge conversion attempt. Chiefs stuff the QB run, and the improvised lateral (that if not caught, could have been a pick-2.)
Chiefs take a 21-16 lead into the half.
Could have been 17-10 if the Chiefs slow played and settled for a field goal right before the half.
Could have been 21-10 if that pass got overturned and they got a TD right before the half.
Could have been 21-18 if the Bills convert 2pts from the 1.
Could have been 21-17 if the Bills say we're not taking points off the board.
Halftime.
Chiefs start with the ball and the Bills defense forces the first punt.
Then the Bills go on a 12-play 80-yard TD drive. Two 4th down conversions, including an incredible run by Cook on 4th and goal. Super impressive play. Third lead change. The TD makes it 22-21, pending the point after. At this point there are 18 minutes left. All the charts say go for two. But 18 minutes in a Chiefs-Bills game is an eternity. And there is a key advantage of going up two...another 7 points and you're up 9, a comfortable two-score margin. The key advantage of going up three is assuming that the next score is a Chiefs FG and you'll be tied, not losing. I also don't love chasing 4th down conversions when you don't have to. But anyways. they go for two again, and they don't get it. It would be 24-21 if the Bills had just kicked both PATs but I'm sure that won't matter.
Bills at this point are 2 for 2 on 4th down, 0 for 2 on 2pt conversions.
The Chiefs 2nd drive of the 2nd half is a 3 and out, their first.
KC in the first half:
TD
long drive then fumble
TD
TD
KC to open the second half:
Punt
Punt
As a Chiefs fan, you're watching the Bills with the lead and the ball, and it appears that the Bills defense has made some halftime adjustments. It doesn't look or feel GREAT.
Bills driving and they convert another 4th down. Now 3 for 3 on 4th down. Literally, 4 plays later it's 4th down again. The Bills go for it again and don't get it. Since it's a turnover the replay official looked at it and confirmed the call, so at least they did their due diligence and got it right.
Anyways, moving on...
Okay, fine, I'll talk about the biggest play of the game. It was 4th and 1. The ref on the far side was going to spot that he got 1 yard. The ref on the near side was going to spot that he got 2/3 of a yard. I heard one NFL official say that he thought the Bills got the first down by a 1/3 of a football. A football is 11 inches.
We're talking about a very narrow window. Two refs saw it differently and the Bills got a bad spot and the Chiefs got a good spot.
It happens.
Circa 2015-2017, people referred to Foxboro as the place where the headsets don't work. To go in their house, you had to outplay the Pats, the elements, and their homefield advantage.
What have we been hearing about the Chiefs all season? They get all the calls, right? So when you need 36 inches on a play, you might want to get more than 40, because someone might see it as only 30.
Anyways, moving on.
It's at this point that I got a vision of the future. The Chiefs had the ball down 21-22 and I saw that it was going to be 29-29.
5 plays, 59 yards, no 3rd downs. Mahomes runs it in again. Chiefs go for two. Get it. Lead 29-22. Fourth lead change.
A couple things.
1. What I was afraid of: when the Bills were up 22-21, I was worried they would score and go for two, going up 30-21. Whenever Andy Reid scores to go up 7, he always kicks the PAT and I always want him to go for two to make it nine.
2. If the Bills had just converted their PATs in the first place they would have been up 24-21. The Chiefs don't go for two in this situation, so it should have been 28-24, a 4-point Chiefs lead. Instead, it's 29-22, a 7-point lead.
The Bills need a touchdown and they get one. They convert another 4th and goal. They're now 4 out of 5 on 4th down. And the one they didn't get, they maybe sorta should have gotten.
29-29. Tie game.
Chiefs get down to the 10 with passes to Hunt, Kelce and Worthy. But can't cash in to the end zone. Here's the shot when Butker makes the field goal:
32-29.
The Bills take over. They could make the last score. TD to win. FG to go to OT. Josh Allen Legacy Drive.
3rd and 10, sick WR screen, caught 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Sets up 4th and 5.
Take a look at the left side of this frame. That's Dalton Kincaid, #86 running a deep slant. He just broke past the linebackers and there is nobody back there. He's in the clear.
This is the same camera that just zoomed out with the pass in the air just a few frames later,
So this second frame shows just how open Kincaid is.
Go back to the first frame. Kincaid is on the 39 when Allen releases the ball. Kincaid makes it as far as the 34 before he has to turn around come back to the ball. The ball lands at the 36.
If the ball is thrown 1-5 yards farther, Kincaid not only has an easy catch, he probably gets it inside the red zone.
But this isn't on Allen either. He makes a heck of play and salvages an incredible throw. Spags just surprised with the corner blitz and made it impossible to put enough into the throw.
That's coaching.
Of course, the Chiefs still had to close the game out with two first downs. This has been an area of struggle over the last two years, not always able to clinch the game on offense.
But Andy had some special plays locked and loaded.
Victory formation. Kneel down. Kneel down.
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Last year the Bills lost the Chiefs in the playoffs with a field goal missed wide right.
This time, the Bills have now lost FOUR IN A ROW to the Chiefs in the playoffs.
“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain allegedly
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As I wrote before the game, I do feel bad for Buffalo fans. Loyal, passionate fans deserve to be rewarded with joy at some point. In so many ways, I identify with them.
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Go back and look at the first image I posted.
It was the final score of the game. Chiefs +3 at 3:33 remaining. To advance for a shot at a Threepeat.™
