In August 2023, I predicted 49ers over Chiefs in LVIII.
Two years running I've picked both Super Bowl teams correctly! If you ignore the part where I got the winners wrong, it's very impressive!
Two years running I've picked both Super Bowl teams correctly! If you ignore the part where I got the winners wrong, it's very impressive!
In August 2022, I correctly predicted the Chiefs to win LVII, but incorrectly picked the Vikings as their opponent.
In August 2019, I correctly predicted the Chiefs to win LIV, but incorrectly picked the Saints as their opponent.
A Super Bowl prediction involves three elements: AFC team, NFC team, and the winner. Over the last 6 years, I've gotten 2 out of 3 elements correct four times. And really, who counts the covid years anyways?
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After a 50-year gap between Super Bowl appearances, the Chiefs have appeared in (check notes...that can't be right...) five of the last six Super Bowls.
Since the start of the 2015 regular season, the Chiefs have the most Super Bowl Wins.
Since the start of the 2005 regular season, no team has more Super Bowl Wins.
(The Patriots also have three.)
Since the start of the 1987 regular season, the Chiefs are still tied for 2nd place in Super Bowl Wins.
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Before just plowing ahead, I want to pause to look back and see how I did last year, see if there's anything to be learned.
AFC Division Finishes
I got 4/4 correct in the West, 2/4 in every other division. I nailed the bottom team in every division. Also the top team in every division except the Bills. The only misses last year was swapping Bills/Dolphins, Colts/Jaguars, Steelers/Bengals.
That seems really strong?
NFC Division Finishes
Less strong here, getting 2/4 in three divisions but only 1/4 in the NFC North. Again, I'm doing better by identifying the worst and best teams.
Last year of the 8 teams I picked to be last in their division, 6 times they were. I got 5 division winners correct. Still seems like enough to make money on.
As for the playoffs I only got 4/7 correct on both sides. Not great.
My best call last year was picking the 49ers to miss the playoffs.
Does that help me learn anything? Not really. It does seem to show that the more familiar I am with a division/conference, the better I do. Enough stalling, let's get to it.
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AFC West
The Chiefs should have a better receiver room than last year...but are also coming off a Super Bowl loss. The one time Mahomes missed a Super Bowl (which is a crazy phrase) was coming off a Super Bowl loss. But they were also up at halftime at home in the AFC Championship. So yes, it was a rare choke job, but can we put that on the Super Bowl hangover? They'll be good, but how good?
Year Two of Harbaugh in LA. In Year One, he improved by 6 wins, rising to 11-6. They've got a promising rookie RB but also already had an OL injury. 11-6 seems like a likely ballpark for them again.
Bo Nix went to the playoffs as a rookie. Great defense. Feels like the offense caps their ceiling but their defense gives them a good floor. Another 11-6 team?
Pete Carroll is 73 and this is year one for him in Vegas. Going with Geno Smith who Carroll is well-familiar with. Brock Bowers is a star and Ashton Jeanty could make this team must-watch? But that doesn't mean they'll win double digit games.
Look, the Chiefs have won the division 9 years in a row. No guarantee it's 10, but I'm going to keep picking them first until they prove me wrong. Raiders will be frisky and improved but I've still got them last. Chargers could win the division, but with injury luck, I see them flip-flopping with the Broncos who are carried by their defense.
Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, Raiders.
AFC East
So the Bills have won this division 6 years in a row. Last year I got cute and thought I could see the Bills falling off and I was wrong. They still have Josh Allen and they're going to be good again.
Feels like I can copy and paste from the 2024 Dolphins preview: Speaking of banking everything on an injury-prone QB, the Miami Dolphins. Speed kills and they've got it. A great team in September and October, but once the weather drops, they lose their magic. Should be good for 9 or 10 wins, but it's hard to see why they'd be better than last year.
The Jets have replaced Aaron Rodgers with Justin Fields. I used to own Justin Fields stock and I guess I still do, it's just not worth very much. I'm not sure going to Jets is the way to lift your value.
The Patriots have Vrabel as coach after Jerod Mayo went 4-13. So Drake Maye in a new system after going 3-9 in his rookie year and somehow also the Pro Bowl. Lol. I like Vrabel to give them a spark, but this team is still a ways away.
Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets.
AFC South
Stroud took a step back. The Texans won their division at 10 wins. Seems like a repeat performance is on deck, but gone are the Super Bowl darling predictions.
Duuuvalll??? Everyone wants to believe that Liam Cohen is going to come to the Jags and finally make Lawrence the prince that was promised. Might take more than a year.
Titans rolling with #1 overall Cam Ward. They're still going to be bad, with moments of friskiness.
The Colts QB situation is a mess.
Texans, Jaguars, Titans, Colts
AFC North
The Ravens are the class of the division and as long as we're talking regular season, no reason to doubt them!
The Bengals have kept their offense intact at the cost of their defense. Should make for a lot of exciting 42-44 point games, but more losses than you'd expect by just looking at the offense.
The Steelers are all-in this year and are relying on 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers. I don't have confidence in Rodgers, but the surrounding pieces are good enough to win games.
The Browns are shit.
Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Browns
AFC Playoff Teams
1 Ravens
2 Bills
3 Chiefs
4 Texans
5 Broncos
6 Steelers
7 Bengals
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NFC North
The 2023 Lions were a normal bounce away from facing the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. The 2024 Lions got bounced in the first round of the playoffs by a rookie QB. Detroit enters 2025 without Ben Johnson. So if we're not doing trick plays, is biting kneecaps enough?
Speaking of Ben Johnson, he goes to the Bears. Caleb Williams will get better. (He almost has to?) But how quickly?
Last year I was wrestling with doubts over Jordan Love...overrated? They went 11-6, losing in the first round to the Eagles. Which doesn't actually prove either way if Love is great or not. But now they've added Micah Parsons and should be ready to do some damage.
And the Vikings went 14-3 with Sam Darnold but flamed out in the playoffs. So once again they've got an incredible receiver in their prime and are rolling out an unproven QB.
Packers, Lions, Vikings, Bears
NFC East
You've got the Super Bowl Champion Eagles, the ascendant Commanders, a team that refuses to use curtains to prevent their players from being blinded, and the shitty Giants.
Traditionally the Super Bowl hangover is for the loser, and it might be this year also, but also the Eagles are one injury to Hurts or Saquon from being pedestrian. They should be better than Wash, but it wouldn't surprise me if Commanders get to 12 wins and Eagles drop to 11.
Eagles, Commanders, Cowboys, Giants
NFC South
This is a familiar feeling, and I'm never right, but I believe in the Falcons and I doubt the Bucs.
I'm all in on riding Penix.
And the Panthers could get all the way up to don't buy.
Falcons, Bucs, Panthers, Saints
NFC West
This division is super balanced. I was out last year on the 49ers. But this year is the year after the SB hangover. Meanwhile the Rams could put it all together, or could get injured and fall to pieces. Fun!
49ers, Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals
NFC Playoff Teams
1 49ers
2 Packers
3 Eagles
4 Falcons
5 Commanders
6 Lions
7 Bucs
Two years ago I made this prediction and I liked how it turned out. Let's run it back:
Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara:
49ers over Chiefs
