Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Midseason Check-In

Here are the top 14 teams in the NFL, sorted by Super Bowl odds. 

Chiefs
Lions
Packers
Bills
Colts
Rams
Eagles
Bucs
Broncos
Ravens
Seahawks
Patriots
Chargers
49ers

All but the 49ers are under 30 to 1 odds. The 49ers are 35 to 1. Then there's a big dropoff to the Texans at 55 to 1. So that's why I'm focusing on the top 14. Here's that list again with the Calcutta owners.

Chiefs - DAVE
Lions - MARK
Packers - MARK
Bills - MATT
Colts - MATT
Rams - DAVE
Eagles - MARK
Bucs - MARK
Broncos - MARK
Ravens - DAVE
Seahawks - DAVE
Patriots - DAVE
Chargers - DAVE
49ers - MATT



Who's going to make the Super Bowl in the AFC? Chiefs or Bills right? It can't be the Colts. 

What about the NFC? It's a deep playoff field right now with Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles, Bucs, Seahawks all looking like the best team on any given Sunday. 

So let's go back to the AFC. 


Chiefs 
Bills
Colts

The Chiefs are 5-3. The Bills are 5-2. The Colts are 7-1.
But Chiefs and Bills are still trailing in their division behind Broncos and Pats. 

So it's hard to say who will get the 1-seed, 2-seed, 3-seed etc.

Best plan for the Colts is the get the 1-seed, and let the Bills and Chiefs play each other. 

Bills desperately want the 1-seed. Chiefs have proven they can go on the road and still win the Super Bowl, but yeah, they want the 1-seed too. 

Lots to play for coming down the stretch. Chiefs hosting the Colts on my birthday weekend actually seems like a super pivotal game to go to. [eyes emoji]





Sunday, October 26, 2025

a good virtual walk spoiled: part ten

I enjoyed the golf simulator in Vegas so much, that this morning I went out to All Seasons Indoor Golf and played a round of 18 holes in one hour.




Just a real casual 119 (45 over par).

When my average drive is 143, it's hard to make par on long holes.

But to make up for my poor distance, I also have poor accuracy. 

I did make a par on a par 3 and even got a bogey on a par 5.

Friday, October 24, 2025

Niraj Fever: Vegas Edition

One of my burdens to carry is that everyone wants to go with me to Vegas.
(Also, staying humble.)

This year I combined Niraj and my Mom into one trip and told Aunt Paula I'd try to catch her next year.


FRIDAY


We arrive and check into the Aria. I got handed a glass of wine while Burnsy was checking in, so if you had bet Dave for first drink at +150 that's a winner.

We headed to the Venetian. First up: Flight Club, a social dart venue.



I quite enjoyed the Bee Sting cocktail. Also, there's no way to bury this lede any further. I was on a HEATER at the dartboard. We tried every game and I was pulling out the Michael Jordan shrug because I couldn't understand how well I was throwing. I was hanging in St. Paul's CaTHREEdral all freaking day. 

One time Burnsy closed it a game out first and then I came back and hit a double to send it to overtime. Sometimes you're on one, and that was me at darts.


After darts we both hit the roulette. I got up $30 right away using my martingale system on red/black. I cashed out so I was only playing with profit and then I tried Niraj's system of betting on green. I put $3 on the green covering 0 & 00. And within 5 rolls, it hit for a $54 winner.


After that we got burgers at Black Tap, a place that had been on my list for years. It lived up to the hype.


After that we found a prohibition bar and got a nightcap.



We walked back to Aria from the Venetian, burning off 100% of the food and drink calories.


SATURDAY

We had breakfast outside on the patio of Salt & Ivy. I got the biscuit and gravy but subbed the egg for hash browns. They should make this a permanent option.


From there we headed to AREA15.

We did Omega Mart first.


Then we checked into The Continental.


We survived (perhaps excelled) at the John Wick Experience. Below is the cocktail, With A Pencil.



After Wick, we played the golf simulator at AREA15, called Five Iron Golf. This was awesome because we were both bad. I'm not kidding, it made for a fun time as we both struggled to avoid the bunkers of Pebble Beach.


Then, we played shuffleboard on truly the wonkiest table we'd ever seen. This thing had it all: dead spots, curves from left edge to off the right edge, stationary wiggles. 


By the time we were leaving AREA15 it was dark and I got this shot:


We walked from there to Taru for the best sushi I've ever had.


We ordered the 20-piece Sashimi and it was nuts.


From there, it was a short walk to Golden Tiki, a rad tiki bar.




I had four drinks and then Mrs. Hoagie Central called. What did we talk about? I do not know.

We went to Cosmopolitan to gamble.

SUNDAY

Had to wake up early and arrive at Circa by 9:30am for NFL Sunday on Pacific Time.


The screens were incredible and I got some decent wings as well.


Now because the three games I felt great about were the Chiefs, Patriots and Seahawks, and they all won big, then surely I had a great day at the sportsbook. You would freaking think so. But no, I had to do a bunch of stupid stuff and only broke even. Still, I've had worse days at the sportsbook.

After six hours of football, including nice wins by the Chiefs and Bears and a truly insane ending to Giants-Broncos, we tried the tiki bar near the Circa: Glitter Gulch. It was fine but not as rad as The Golden Tiki.

(photo credit: Niraj. Great shot!)

Then we got a ride to the Rio to eat a Korean BBQ place: Kang's Kitchen. They cooked it all for us and it was super fun and tasty. The meals on this trip were super good.



We were at the Rio to go to the Comedy Cellar. Five comedians, all really funny. Jimmy McMurrin, Dean Delray, Brandi Denise, Ryan Goodcase, and Jeff Leach. Ryan and Jimmy were my favorites.


(photo credit: Niraj)

We went to the Bellagio next. Always a classic.




Gambled more in Aria before bed.

MONDAY

I woke up earlyish on Monday and met up with my Mom in Paris. That's right, two trips in one.


I started playing on their machine and hit 4 nines on a 11x multiplier. That's 1375 nickels on a $1.50 pull.


We then went to Cabo Wabo Cantina where we met up with Niraj and we all had fajitas together. 


We walked to Ole Red per my Mom's request.



Then Burnsdog and I walked to Brewdog.




The sun was hitting the top of Burnsy's head and doing crazy stuff.



We went back to gamble a little bit more with my Mom. At this point, Niraj hit two roulette greens in a short span and was crushing it. We decided to spend our last night where we spent our first night: The Venetian.


We split the hot chicken (medium level) at Howlin Ray's. We split it because we wanted to save room...


Because we each ordered this freaking enormous milkshake from Black Tap. This is not an optical illusion. It was giant.


We gambled for a bit and I made a truly horrific Monday Night Football bet that we then watched play out in real time. 

We walked back down the Strip and ended up at Bottled Blonde where we saw a really good band: Full Circle. They did everything from Nirvana to Cranberries and did it well.


TUESDAY

It was my last day. We headed to Paris to meet up with my Mom again.


We walked to In and Out Burger for our last meal.


Damn, we really did it all. Great trip!

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Monday, October 06, 2025

this is art (Titans-Cardinals)


This is a rich tapestry. Obviously the first thing you see is Kyler not receiving the snap. But the more you look, the more interesting it gets. 

The RG who is not set in his stance and is tapping his helmet, just as the ball arrives to Kyler's helmet.

The RT who is really set in his stance and lets 45 go right by. (45 will collect the ball, a turnover that prevents a FG attempt.)

Even after the play above, Emari Demarcado has a chance to ice the game 28-6 in the 4th quarter. He comes within a foot of doing so:




So now it's 21-6 in the 4th. The Titans drive down the field and score. Riding high with momentum they could go for two. Instead they try to make it a one possession game by going for one:


Truly one of the worst extra points I've ever seen.

After a Cardinals punt, the Titans drive down to the red zone. And on 3rd and 2, call up a truly innovative play:


Great execution for a touchdown.

It was 21-19 at this point, and the Cardinals would punt and the Titans would go down and kick a field goal to win. Really tremendous plays that show why the NFL is a $25 billion industry.