a good virtual walk spoiled: part 12

This was my third time playing 18 on a simulator in a month.

A month ago:

1 par
5 bogeys

4 doubles

8 triples or worse

15 mulligans

total score 119

Two weeks ago:

1 par

5 bogeys

5 doubles

7 triples or worse

8 mulligans

total score 110

Today:

3 pars

5 bogeys

7 doubles

3 triples or worse

3 mulligans

total score 99

+17 on the front nine

+11 on the back nine

My only goal I've ever had was to break 100. Today I shot a 99 with several asterisks.

First asterisk: I did take 3 mulligans. All of those were water hazard shots.

So you could easily say I earned a 105.

Also, and this is a big one, I play it off the tee even on 2nd and 3rd shots if needed.

Also, I realize that the golf simulator does provide other advantages. One is that I can get in a good rhythm and hit three shots in a minute, reducing the amount of overthinking. It makes the mental game easier.

So I'm not here to make a big whoop-de-doo about breaking 100. But there were several good things that I want to hold onto:

1. My ball striking was much improved. A lot less chunked shots off the heel.

2. My distance has actually improved. My whole swing is better. Today with the roll, my driver was getting 175-180 on a good shot. A month ago my average drive was 143. I'm following through, which was a tip I wrote down here like 11 years ago. But in the last two weeks I've been passively absorbing some YouTube Shorts on golf swings and one thing I actually found myself employing and working, was at the top of the backswing, I was concsciously shifting my hips first to start the downswing. I was amazed how much that helped. Also, I did get a new driver and this was the 2nd time using it.

I also got a new wedge, a 56 degree and it improved my short game tremendously. This was the first time using it, and I was DIALED with it.  

3. I still left some scoring out there. On 11, I had a par putt that just lipped out but then carried past the hole. My bogey putt came up a few inches short. So I was real close to a par that turned into a double bogey. 

4. I parred the 13th. A par 4. I've only done that once before. There was a large bunker guarding the front of the green. I could have chosen to lay up, but I figured I was doing good with my wedge and the closer the better. (Now the funny thing is that the bunker limits it to 50% power. So a 20-yard bunker shot or a 40-yard fairway shot is the same thing.) My 2nd shot hit the bunker as expected. My third was a wedge shot out of the bunker that was 13 feet away. And I drained the putt. 

I still lack distance, but I managed to get bogey on two par fives. However, my accuracy has gotten better. As well as managing the correct distance when it's within reach. 

I had some extra time on the simulator so I tried a par 3 course. 

I know I used one mulligan on the 9th. There was water in front of the 9th green and I was going to have to carry 160, but somehow I carried it like 170 or 175 and it bounced into water behind the green that I wasn't even thinking about. I don't remember the other mulligan I took, but it must have been some other water shot.

Regardless, 5 pars, 4 bogeys, 2 mulligans. When the holes are not too long for my distance ability, I'm actually playing quite well. 

I Was There: Chiefs vs Colts

Chiefs vs Colts. 

A birthay present to go to the game.

First game with my whole family. 

The season hangs in the balance as the Chiefs are 5-5 entering the game.

Only my 2nd time seeing Mahomes. Last time was a loss vs the Colts.

Let's do this.

Before the game, I dragged my family to see the Lombardi trophies. The last time I was in this stadium was in 2019. I took pictures of the singular trophy. Nobody was around it. Nobody cared.

Well now we've got four. 

And it was crowded! Hard to get a good picture, but worth it!

Section 346, Row 26, Seats 1-4. Great seats. A little high and far, but I could still see well. 

Colts get the first posession. Helped by some penalties, the Chiefs force a punt. Mahomes takes over from his own 4 yard line. 

2nd play of the game for the Chiefs: ball tipped, interception. Colts score immediately. We're 7 minutes into the game and the Colts are up 7-0 even though the defense got a stop. It's a bad feeling.

Chiefs get a good drive going and make Red Zone Appearance #1. I'm really hoping for a touchdown before the end of the quarter, so it will be on the near end zone to us. On 2nd and Goal from the 4, direct snap to Kelce in shotgun. It's a weird feeling in the stands when they shift into a trick play formation. Lots of apprehension. 

It works Kelce keeps it and runs it. Touchdown signal. Fireworks. Flag on the play.

I warned my kids that this could happen and it literally ruins what would have been such an exciting moment. 

Not only does it erase the touchdown, but the 15 yard penalty ensures it will be a field goal. Colts up 7-3. 

Ensuing drive, Colts go 75 yards for a score with the help of a 48-yard pass. It's 14-3 Colts with 10 minutes to go in the first half. Feels like this could be a blowout.

Next drive Chiefs have a 4th and 1 on their own 43. Andy goes for it. Gets it. But it leads only to a field goal attempt. Colts 14-6.

Chiefs get a 3rd and 1 stop for no gain. 4th and 1 and the Colts line up for it. Crowd going nuts. Colts try to draw offside and they can't. Punt it back. 

On the same play Chiefs get a 17-yard Kelce catch and a face mask. Go from the 41 to the 12. Red Zone Appearance #2. Chiefs have 1st and goal from the 6. 

A touchdown here makes it a 1-point game at the half. 

But after a good drive, the Chiefs can't punch it in. Halftime: Colts 14, Chiefs 9. 

When you're at the game, all the stuff about the season fades away. You're not thinking about a playoff spot. You just want to win a game. The Colts were the better team in the first half. So many missed opportunities for KC. This could still turn into a Colts blowout, or the Chiefs could rally with the ball coming out to start the 3rd quarter. 

Chiefs go 3 and out to start the 3rd quarter. 

Indy gets a field goal. Chiefs face a 4th and 3 on their own 43. They're down 17-9 with 6 minutes to go in the 3rd. Andy punts it away. The crowd boos, they want Andy to go for it. 

Colts go on a 69-yard drive. They've got 1st and goal from the 7 but the Chiefs make a defensive stand. Colts settle for 3. Colts 20, Chiefs 9. 1 minute to go in the 3rd. 

I tell my family: this drive is touchdown or bust. If we get a touchdown we're still in this. If we can't it's over. 

42 yard pass to Rashee Rice makes Red Zone Appearance #3. There is hope! 

2 plays later, Kareem Hunt gets inside the 10 and fumbles. 

Colts take over. It is at this point, when hope seems lost. Win probabability says 86% for the Colts but honestly that seems low. 

I'm sitting here thinking we're not even going to see the Chiefs score a meaningful touchdown. 

So I'm kinda resigned to accepting a loss at this point. Chris Jones, however is not. He's on the field, and he's urging the crowd to get pumped up. And somehow, the KC defense forces a 3 and out. Chiefs return the punt to the KC 44. 

The fumble cost the Chiefs 50 yards of field position, but only a minute on the clock.

There's another personal foul against the Chiefs that wipes away a 20+ yard pass. 

But Chiefs keep going, make Red Zone Apperance #4.

With 8:37 to go in the game, Kareem Hunt jumps over the line and we get to see our first Chiefs touchdown. It was on the near end zone to us, great view for us. 

Prior to the conversion, Colts are up 20-15. I think you go for one here. My logic, very possible that the Colts still get a field goal. You miss this 2pt and then you have to go for a 2pt in that situation and it's too early to be chasing points. But I am not in Andy Reid's ear. 

He calls a 2pt conversion pass play. And Mahomes cooks with Rice. 

It's 20-17. I love it because even if we allow a field goal, I love the Chiefs down 17-23. 

The Chiefs D forces a 3 and out. 

Mahomes takes over down 3, 7 minutes to go. We live for this! 3 and out, punt.

The Chiefs D forces ANOTHER 3 and out. 

1st and 10 from the KC 6. 94 yards from glory. 

And on the first play it's a first down catch, except wait... penalty wipes it away. Romo calls it the worst penalty of the 2025 NFL season.

No problem. 1st and 13 from the KC 3. 97 yards from glory.

Incomplete pass. 

Ummmm, 2nd and 13 from your own 3. All of that work to get back in this game, and we're two incomplete passes from punting again. 

Here's who Mahomes throws to. I know it's blurry because of the whip pan, but there is a defender right behind Rice, and another in the vicinity if the ball gets tipped. Rice catches at close to full speed.

Here he is after the catch, looks like the Colts will get him around the 25.

Here he is 4 seconds later getting pushed out at the 50.

This went from a potential 3rd and long if tipped, to a almost in field goal range moment.

But we're not done with the drama. 

Noah Gray catches a ball as he goes unconcious. Sets up a 4th and 3 at the Colts 43.

Chiefs are going for it.

Some people see it as a high pass to Rice. Some as a low pass to Kelce who is 8 yards beyond Rice. Either way, Rice catches and now the Chiefs are in field goal range. Red Zone Appearance #5.

1st and goal from the 2, with one minute to go. Colts have no timeouts left. From here you could do worse than 4 runs up the middle. But 1st run loses a yard. Incomplete. Sack. 

Very nerve wracking knowing that any fumble or missed snap or missed kick and you're walking out with a loss. I can't believe they had 1st and goal from the 2 and couldn't punch it in.

Butker makes it. Free football.

I'm a little panicked inside that was the Chiefs best chance. If the Colts go down and score a TD in OT, it's a real regret moment. 

But somehow the Chiefs D forces another 3 and out.

Chiefs face 3rd and 7 from their own 24. An incomplete and we have to punt it away.

Mahomes steps up in a nice pocket and makes a pass to Xavier, worthy of highlight reels. 

And just a few plays later, Rice makes another catch to put the Chiefs in Red Zone Appearance #6.

After making us wait around for while, Butker finally kicks his field goal. So many things could go wrong, but none did. 

Final: Chiefs 23, Colts 20 (OT)

By the way this was my 12th Chiefs game at Arrowhead, first overtime game.

I know how bad the long walk to the car is after losing. Then you're stuck in traffic and it's miserable.

But on the other hand, taking my kids to the first game and seeing a win like this, this is something that could stick with them for the long haul. So this felt like winning a Super Bowl.

Here were the Colts posessions:

Punt

Touchdown (3 yard drive)

Touchdown

Punt (3 and out)

(end of half)

--halftime--

Field Goal

Field Goal

Punt (3 and out)

Punt (3 and out)

Punt (3 and out)

--overtime--

Punt (3 and out)

The KC defense needed four stops in a row at the end to give the KC offense a chance to win and that's exactly what they delivered. The Chiefs lost the tunover battle 2-0. Also got zero sacks. Just stops.

Here were the Chiefs posessions:

Interception

Field Goal

Field Goal

Field Goal

--halftime--

Punt

Punt

Fumble

Touchdown

Punt

Field Goal

--overtime--

Field Goal

Chiefs were able to time it so each team got 4 posessions in the first half, but KC got 6 posessions to Indy's 5 in the second half.

Oh yeah and one more thing:

Birthday Top Golf

So for my birthday, Mrs. Hoagie Central took us out to TopGolf.

Now if you notice, for football season, they have uprights in the field of play. 

Me and the boys played a bunch of different game modes, including Field Goal Challenge. Now, not everyone can hit the distance of the uprights 117 yards away. So they offer virtual distances. 

I let the kids play all their 10 shots on 23 yards away. 
I played the progressive at 5 distances, where it goes further back if you make a shot. I made the first 3 shots in a row, then it took me five attempts to make the 4th distance, something like 90ish yards. That left me with two attempts where for it to count it had to go through the physical uprights. Now the annoying thing was my 8th shot, actually went through the physical uprights. So that counted as a successful 4th distance, but did not also count as completing the full distance. 

One thing to clear up: all my shots were clearing 117. What is tricky is that the angle gets so much narrower the further the uprights get pushed back. 

Anyways so we moved on and played other modes, and then with 5 minutes to go, I was like I want to play field goal challenge again. 

So I set it at the full distance from the beginning and took 10 shots and couldn't make any through. 

Now I had 2 minutes left. One more round in me. 

I missed the first 5 shots. Some left, some right. I know these next five are my last chance. 

And then on #6, I could tell the moment it left my club, that it was going right through. With under one minute to go, I hit a buzzer beater.

42

Okay, so real talk, I've never read this book in full, or even seen the movie, but I've known about this particular quote for so long that I think about it, I use it, and live by it.

So as I turn 42 I hope to live in a way this year that proves the quote true.

Ironman Fantasy Football - Season 5 Recap

Entering the season, Mark and I had completed four seasons of Ironman Fantasy Football.

Arguably the finest accomplishment in athletic history. Could I make it 5-0?

Here were our week one starters:

Although the projections were only one point different, Mark took the first game handily. Worthy got injured on the first series and Egbuka had a debutant ball performance. 

In week 2, I lost by 12. Hockenson put up 1.5 for me while Kraft scored 21 on my bench. 

In week 3, I lost by 1.5 and almost any move I would have made differently would have given me the win. My other defense put up 21 more points, and I had 3 players outscore Kraft (who was in my flex spot this time) on my bench. 

So after three, I was 0-3, but thinking how I could easily be 2-1. 

The next five, were not as close.

Lamar Jackson got hurt and missed a bunch of time. Weeks 5 and 8 were winnable in theory, but my roster just wasn't that great. The rest of the time, Mark just steamrolled me. 

In week 9, Worthy and Kraft both scored under 4 points. But I still put up 153 thanks to big games from Drake London, Tee Higgins and Lamar. Finally, a win!

Then the next two games, Mark put up 160.5 and 148 to clinch his first Ironman title. 

The season is over at 10-1 with 8 games still left to play (week 17 counts as two games). 

In his final win, Mark's Josh Allen put up 48 points. He was on the bench. And Mark's wagon of a team still scored 148 without Josh Allen. Crazy. 

Mark drafted great players and they all stayed healthy. He had top players at every position, including value picks. 

I barely had any good players and they got hurt. 

Pretty simple when you look at it that way. 

The streak is no more. 

Simmons' Super Bowl Circle

Prior to Week 11 games, Bill Simmons annouced his Super Bowl circle, 8 teams that can win the Super Bowl.

Here were his Top 6:

AFC
Colts
Chiefs
Pats

NFC
Eagles
Seahawks
Rams

Then Sal and Bill added the Bills and the Packers.

Here's the current Super Bowl odds:

Kinda funny how Bill just put the Pats in the top 6 where they are 11th in odds. 

Anyways. 

If I had to make a top 8 right now to win the Super Bowl:

Chiefs
Eagles
Rams
Lions
Seahawks
Bills 
Colts
Pats

Those are my top 8. Basically I still think the Lions have top tier potential if they put it all togther and I haven't seen that from the Packers since like Week 1 or 2. Colts and Pats have to be in the mix because of their records, the #1 seed has such as easy path that either one is still a good ticket.

Ok, so one more time the top 8, with Calcutta owners. 

Chiefs - DAVE
Eagles - MARK
Rams - DAVE
Lions - MARK
Seahawks - DAVE
Bills - MATT
Colts - MATT
Patriots - DAVE

a good virtual walk spoiled: part 11

I tried a different simulator place in town and I liked this one quite a bit. 

This one notably included putting. The first hole I think I four-putted because I was getting the hang of it. It only gives a gimme if you get it inside 5 feet. 

Highlights from today:
On the 11th or 12th, I drained a 24 foot putt.

On the 15th, I hit a par with no mulligans. 

Last time's recap:

1 par
5 bogeys

4 doubles

8 triples or worse

15 mulligans

total score 119

Today:

1 par

5 bogeys

5 doubles

7 triples or worse

8 mulligans

total score 110

I didn't even notice that last time I scored a 68 on the front nine and then a 51 on the back nine.

Today I scored a 60 on the front nine and then a 50 on the back nine.

Now some of that is that in the beginning I'm always like "I'm not taking mulligans" but then you hit it into the water or something stupid so you take one or two, and then you get more comfotable taking them as the round goes on...I'm also playing Turtle Bay in Hawaii because it's cool, and it's got way more water than anyone like me has business playing, so I don't feel guilty about taking some mulligans.

But also I think it shows that I do play better once I'm warmed up.

My par last time was on a par 3 on the back nine.

My par today was on a par 3 on the back nine.

Last time my three worst holes were a 9, 10, 12.

This time my three worst holes were all 8s.

Anyways, +14 on the back nine is pretty good for me. Breaking 100 would be nice, and if I can play like I did on the back nine, on the front nine too, that would be cool.

NFL Playoff Predictions

Let's start with the AFC.

There are 8 teams with a winning record. Plus, the Baltimore Ravens lurking at 3-5. 

At 7-2, the Colts should win their division. Even if they don't they'd have to fall off pretty hard to miss a wild-card spot. So let's say they're in. 

The Bills and Patriots should both get in. The Patriots have a creampuff schedule and will just keep racking up wins. 

Steelers at 5-3, Ravens at 3-5. Hard to imagine the Ravens going 8-1 the rest of the way. Their most likely path to the playoffs is winning the division at 10-7. Still could happen if the Steelers go 4-5 down the stretch, but my point here is I think it's only one team coming out of the North. 

So we've got 2 in the East. 1 in the North. 

4 teams to fill from the West and South. Colts are 1. The Broncos given that they are 7-2 will be another. I know I'm biased, but the Chiefs are playing well, despite a recent loss at Buffalo. 

I think the last slot comes down to the Chargers or Jaguars. 

Niether team is that trustworthy and they play each other in two weeks in Duval County. 

Whoever wins that game will have a big advantage, and my gut says it's the Jags. 

So my playoff locks at this point:
Colts

Bills

Patriots

Broncos

Then I've got:

Chiefs
1 of Jags/Chargers, leaning Jags
1 of Steelers/Ravens, leaning Steelers

If I was sorting by division winners:
Colts

Bills or Pats

Steelers or Ravens
Broncos or Chiefs

I still think Chiefs can catch Broncos. 

This gives us something that looks like 

1 Bills
2 Colts
3 Chiefs
4 Steelers
5 Patriots
6 Broncos
7 Jaguars

or 

1 Colts

2 Bills
3 Broncos
4 Steelers
5 Patriots
6 Chiefs
7 Jaguars

I know it's super early, but very possible we get a Chiefs-Broncos opening round playoff game. We'll be seeing that game in November, December, and possibly January.



Jumping over to the NFC.

There are 9 teams with a winning record but two of them are the Panthers and Bears. No offense, but the Panthers and Bears have not looked like a playoff team. They've padded their resume with wins against crap teams and will have troulble getting to 10 wins. 

So let's sort those remaining 7 winning teams by division:

Eagles

Packers

Lions

Bucs

Seahawks

Rams

49ers

Those are your 7 most likely playoff teams based on current record. The seeding is going to be impossible, but could be something like this.

1 Seahawks

2 Eagles

3 Bucs

4 Packers

5 Lions

6 Rams

7 49ers

60 Yards is the new 50

Here’s the count of NFL field goals of 60+ yards grouped in 5-year chunks (Super Bowl era = 1966 onward):

1966–1969: 0
1970–1974: 1
1975–1979: 0
1980–1984: 1
1985–1989: 0
1990–1994: 1
1995–1999: 1
2000–2004: 0
2005–2009: 3
2010–2014: 7
2015–2019: 6
2020–2024: 14
2025 (through 10 weeks): 5

Here are all the seasons of NFL history with 3 or more made field goals of 60+

2012 NFL Season: 3
2021 NFL Season: 3
2022 NFL Season: 4
2023 NFL Season: 3
2024 NFL Season: 3
2025 (through 10 weeks): 5


The new K-ball rules that went into effect this year have dramatically improved the chances of hitting from 60-plus. But this is only amplifying the trend that we've seen from 2021 on. Kickers are just getting better and stronger. 

From 1966 to 2004, there were 4 made field goals from 60+. In 10 weeks of 2025, we've seen 5. 

In 1977 there were 8 made field goals from 50+. 
In 2025, I think there's going to be more than 8 from 60+.