State of Sports

The last time I did this was March 2022. 

CHIEFS

The Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII in February 2023.

The Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII in February 2024. 

The Chiefs lost Super Bowl LIX in February 2025. 

My first State of Sports was in 2012. I had never seen the Chiefs win a playoff game. Here was my 2012 entry: Chiefs 1-10 (virtually a shoe-in for the #1 pick now, but there's no good qbs this year)

So while Broncos fans and Chargers fans are gloating that the Chiefs are missing the playoffs this year, I have enough perspective that we've had it too good for a long while. 

This is Mahomes 8th season as a starter. I'll settle for 7 AFC Championship games, 5 Super Bowls, 3 rings.

AVALANCHE

Last time I did this, the Avs were three months away from winning the Stanley Cup. They were the best team in hockey in March of 2022 and June of 2022. 

This year they are the best team in hockey...by a lot. 

And as everyone knows, the goal is to peak in December and take home the President's Trophy. 

Anyways, let's see how they look in May.

ILLINI FOOTBALL

They've actually been good? Ranked. Beating ranked opponents. 

Going to a bowl game in 2022, 2024, 2025. 

Beating a SEC team in a bowl game. 

Will they win a Big Ten Championship game ever? Probably not. 

But it's better to go 8-4 and get invited to a bowl game most years than it is to be 3-9. 

ILLINI BASKETBALL

Underwood is cooking up something. I'd rather try something out there. So we're going with a Balkan roster pipeline and other schools are complaining about us recruiting all these guys. 

They made it to the Elite Eight in March 2024, which is not nothing. 

USMNT

They made the round of 16 in the 2022 World Cup and now get to host the World Cup in 2026. 

And Kansas City is a host city that will see Argentina play one game, and possibly see Ronaldo vs Messi in the knockout round. 

Titles by Calendar year

2020 - Chiefs Super Bowl

2022 - Avs Stanley Cup

2023 - Chiefs Super Bowl

2024 - Chiefs Super Bowl

Pretty, pretty good. 

Chiefs say goodbye to Arrowhead, moving to Kansas in 2031

I'm pretty conflicted on this so let's divide this up. 

Arrowhead Stadium

Sad to say goodbye to a great stadium, great atmosphere built by die-hards and tailgating culture, great name too

Home to personal memories and iconic moments

The same stadium I saw my first NFL game in, the same stadium my kids saw their first NFL game, all Chiefs wins by the way

I love an open-air stadium for atmosphere and having home-field advantage felt like it means more in the KC January weather

This means they're going to stop improving anything at Arrowhead, by 2030 maybe that experience is downgraded 

There was something special about the pyrotechnics and fly-overs and goodyear blimp shots that will be lost in the new dome

New Dome in Kansas

A new stadium should mean lots of bells and whistles and should be fun to experience

Will come with a new locker room, facilities, etc. that should help the players

In theory, could bring high-end events like a Final Four, etc.

Mahomes will be in his late 30's, perhaps a dome helps, idk

Seats will be more expensive, and they're already expensive

I basically don't consider going to December games because of the weather, so who knows

It goes without saying, that this keeps them in KC long-term and that's the most important thing, so for that alone, I'd rather them get this deal done then continue to drag out

Calcutta Update

Let's figure out the playoff teams. These teams are 95% likely, the only race being Panthers or Bucs to win the NFC South. 

AFC

Broncos - Mark

Pats - Dave

Jaguars - Matt 

Steelers - Dave

Chargers - Dave

Bills - Matt

Texans - Mark

NFC

Seahawks - Dave

Bears - Matt 

Eagles - Mark

Panthers/Bucs - Matt/Mark

Rams - Dave

49ers - Matt

Packers - Mark

Now let's sort by Super Bowl Odds

Rams - Dave

Seahawks - Dave

Bills - Matt

Eagles - Mark

Broncos - Mark

Pats - Dave

Could we get a rematch of Patriots-Seahawks or Patriots-Rams? Perhaps we could. The AFC is pretty murky. But I'm happy to have the top two teams in the NFC.

Closing the Book on the 2025 Chiefs

Hmmm.

Let's look at the 2026 schedule. 

The Chiefs face the AFC East and the NFC West. Seems like the Chiefs are gonna finish in 3rd place this year. Which means they'll get the 3rd place team in the AFC South, AFC North and NFC South.

Currently that's the Colts, Bengals and Falcons, teams that were hot this year or have a great QB or are the Falcons.

So they'll have a 3rd place schedule and a top 15 draft pick. And they'll have January off to rest and start the offseason 6 weeks earlier than usual. And the GM will have plenty of time to fix holes. Honestly, I'm fine with all of this. 

The things that actually sucks is Mahomes tearing his ACL, in mid-December, in the last few minutes. If he gets through another 5 minutes, maybe he sits the rest of the year with his existing knee soreness and focuses on 2026. 

- - -

We're the only eliminated team with a positive point differntial. 

The 10-4 Bears are +27. The 6-8 Chiefs are +60. The 12-2 Broncos are +81. 

- - -

Sorry, intrusive thought. Anyways, back to 2026. Kelce should retire. We don't know when Mahomes comes back, Week 7? Week 10 or 12? Say he comes back in November, will he be limited/bad on the run? His injury puts the 2026 hopes on ice. 

If I was playing a video game, I would tank, sit him for 2026, get a 4th place schedule and a top 10 draft pick and try to win the Super Bowl in 2027. 

- - -

So far, Mahomes has been mirroring Brady's career pretty closely, much like Rodgers has mirrorred Favre's. 

Brady went about 10 years before winning another Super Bowl, but then he did win 4 in the last phase of his career. 

So sure, I think Mahomes will contend for Super Bowls again, but it might be with an entirely different roster. 

- - -

All this will sort itself out. The only thing I have to think about is who I'm rooting against the most. 

The default over the last few years has been root against Allen, Burrow and Lamar. It's fun to have the best of the best by any metric. I don't have to worry about Burrow or Lamar this year. So just Josh Allen and the Bills. 

But then there's the Broncos. Can't let them get another Super Bowl, it's fun to have the most SB titles in the division. 

And then there's the Patriots. See most people might not care or think about them, but long-term...the Patriots and Steelers at the top with 6 Super Bowls. The Chiefs are at 4. So if Mahomes could get two more before he hangs up the cleats, that would put the Chiefs in the top tier, but only if the top tier is still six. 

The good news is those are the only three that would be a bummer. 

Also, there's a world where the Broncos or Bills experienceing a Super Bowl Loss hangover would be fun. But that's risky, ya know. 

The answer might surprise you, but the #1 team I don't want to win is the Pats. 

Mahomes has raised the bar to the point where we can eye the top tier status. 

#2 would be the Broncos but even if they got another Super Bowl, they'd still only tie the Chiefs. 

#3 would be Allen. He's still chasing Mahomes even with one. 

the chiefs just don't have it this year

I've long held that the Super Bowl Loss Hangover is one of the most devastating and consistent forces in the NFL. 

It's a fact that the worst finish for the Chiefs in the Mahomes era to this point (stops to crunch some numbers...wait this can't be true...hold on)

You're telling me that Mahomes has been a starter for 7 seasons and has gone to 5 Super Bowls, meanwhile Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have gone to 0? But the media tells me these are rivals? 

And the two that Mahomes didn't go to were overtime losses in the AFC Championship at home. Huh. Weird. 

Anyways, one of those AFC Championship losses was Mahomes first year as a starter, pre-Spagnuolo. The other was the Super Bowl Loss Hangover year. 

Given that the Chiefs lost the Super Bowl last year, it was to be expected that they would have a down year. 

The tricky, annoying thing is that throughout most of the year, the eye test has showed they're playing pretty well, better than last year, which again was a Super Bowl year. Here's the point differential of the top 20 or so:

The top teams by point differntial are all the strong teams, of course. The 9-3 Seahawks and 9-3 Rams are the teams you do not want to face in the playoffs.

And the #1 seed in the NFC, the Chicago Bears, has gotta be here somewhere, scrolling, scrolling, they're 16th in a league of 32 teams? So the Bears have the point differential of 6-win teams and the Chiefs and Lions havd the pd of 8-win teams. The Broncos have 10 wins and are two behind the Chiefs in pd standings.

I'm not knocking winning close. It's a skill. Last year the Chiefs had a knack for winning close games and rode that to the Super Bowl, so it works.

So that's what I mean by annoying, is that the Chiefs haven't actually fallen off and had a hellish season like the Giants or a mediocre season like the Steelers/Ravens. They've just come up short too many times. They just don't have it. 

- - -

There's also this:

Starting in Week 4, the Chiefs have won every home game and lost every road game.

Not sure if they've switched team planes or what, but cannot win on the road.

Here's their remaining games:

Road games against Titans and Raiders.

So maybe they can go 4-1 or 5-0 and make the playoffs yet. 

But also, they're going to be going on the road in January. So this trend of not performing well on the road confirms my priors--the Chiefs just don't have it this year. 

- - -

Everything I'm about to say in the next section, makes it look like I'm saying watch out for the Chiefs. And that's only like 2% true. There's a bigger point I'm going to attempt to make.

Let's go back to the 2019 season. 

Tom Brady's Patriots were 10-1 at Thanksgiving.

Lamar Jackson's Ravens were 14-2 at the end of the year.

The Chiefs were 7-4. Mahomes had missed two games due to a knee injury. He came back at the Chiefs still lost to the Titans.

We think that December means we know who's good and who's not. But there's still a lot of games left to be played.