One thing I miss about nfl.com's fantasy presentation, is the breakdown. It offers a truer sense of how teams are performing, a more complete picture than their actual record.
With that in mind, I wanted to see how I would have expected to do, week by week, based on the scoreboards but ignoring the schedule. If my winning chances are higher than 50%, I'll classify that as an expected win--vice versa for lower than 50%. This way I'll see what my record would be if you didn't have the schedule in front of you.
Week 1: My 89 points was 9th highest that week (out of 10). The breakdown for that week would be 1-8. So you could say that of the 9 possible opponents, my chances of winning would be 11%. Expected loss.
Week 2: 98 points. Winning chance: 22%. Expected loss.
Week 3: 122.5 points. Winning chance: 89%. Expected win.
Week 4: 84 points. Winning chance: 44%. Expected loss.
Week 5: 108.5 points. Winning chance: 67%. Expected win.
So there you have it. I could only expect to be 2-3 at this point. It's a shame that I lost in week 3 when there was only 1 possible matchup that would have resulted in defeat. But at least I won last week, when 3 out of 9 schedules would have had me lose that one.
It seems like there's more large point swings this year than usual. What I mean by that is, someone that has the top score one week might be at the bottom of the pile the next. It's tough to find a team that's consistently been high-scoring. That may have also been true in previous years, but it seems more extreme this year.
ReplyDelete