I'm writing this before listening to Simmons' podcast or reading any other analysis. I wanted to get this out before I picked up anything from anyone, and we'll see if I hit the same points as other people.
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How does a team that was favored by 8.5 at home, who went 13-3, lose their first playoff game? Well, of course the missed field goals. But let's go deeper.
In the first quarter, both defenses were stopping the offenses. Kaeding did miss a 36-yarder in the first quarter. You might think that getting that first blood would have been key to shutting down a team that doesn't like to throw, but they got a touchdown a couple series later. So yes, they needed those 3 points, but it didn't hurt their momentum.
The Jets couldn't move the ball. And the first half ended with a missed 57-yard field goal attempt with 6 seconds left. You can't blame anyone for missing from that distance. But on the previous play, Vincent Jackson went out of bounds with 6 seconds and at least 5 yards of open field in front of him. Yes, you need to get out to stop the clock, but a 52-yarder is a lot more makeable.
Halftime, Chargers 7, Jets 0.
A pass interference call keeps the Jets first drive of the second half alive, and Feely makes a 46-yard field goal. (Of course it was Feely who missed three game winning field goal attempts in 2005.)
Chargers 7, Jets 3.
When the Jets get the ball back, Sanchez throws an interception and the Chargers are set up inside the Jets' 40. This is when Revis makes the incredible interception that bounced off of legs. After I had heard that Jackson's height advantage would be too much for Revis, he showed that he can shut down anyone. If that pass was completed it would have been a first down at the 20. Even an incomplete could have been a 4th down attempt, field goal, or punt to pin them deep.
Inside the Jets play for field position and with a beautiful Weatherford punt, the Jets pin the Chargers at their own 4. On second down Rivers throws another pick. Combined with a personal foul, that sets up the first Jets touchdown, a 3rd down playaction rollout. But it was the Revis interception and punt coverage and subsequent interception that set up those 7 points.
Jets 10, Chargers 7.
On the next possession, the Jets defense again stopped the Chargers with sacks. And then Greene took it to the house. So defense and running game scored there.
Jets 17, Chargers 7.
On the next drive, Kaeding misses a 40-yarder that really took the wind out of their sails. Still, they got the ball back a minute later.
The personal foul by Jackson was stupid, but proved not costly. The Chargers scored a TD before the two-minute warning anyways.
Jets 17, Chargers 14.
So you're down 3. There is 2:20 remaining so you have the 2-minute warning and one time out. This whole game has been about field position and you decide to do an onside kick. If you do that you had better get it.
After the timeouts, there's a 4th and 1 with 1:10 remaining. If the Jets were in their own territory, they would have to punt. But since they're inside the Chargers 30, they run it up the middle and get the win.
Final: Jets 17, Chargers 14.
I'm not saying those missed field goals didn't matter. But the Chargers were up 4 when Rivers threw an interception from his own 5. That was the turning point. And it was the Chargers defense, not Kaeding, who let Green run right throw them, when Sanchez was doing nothing. And it wasn't Kaeding's choice to do an onside kick at the end. (He didn't even get to kick it).
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So what about my 2003 Chiefs theory?
I predicted the Chargers were safe, not because they didn't have a fatal flaw, but because I didn't think the 09 Jets were as good as the 03 Colts. Well, certainly not in the QB department, but between the defense and the running game and yes, the smart coaching, they proved they are a "good" team.
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