preseason lines

Way back in July I noticed that had posted NFL lines, so I thought I would see how I would bet based on those preseason lines. I will post my in-season picks in parens, and then the Chiefs' result after that.

Chiefs +8 over Ravens (Chiefs +8.5) lost by 14

Chiefs -4 over Raiders (Raiders +3.5) lost by 3

Eagles -10 over Chiefs (Eagles -9.5) lost by 20

Giants -5 over Chiefs (Giants -9.5) lost by 11

Cowboys -4 over Chiefs (Cowboys -8.5) lost by 6

Redskins -6 over Chiefs (Chiefs +6.5) won by 8

Chargers -4 over Chiefs (Chargers -4.5) lost by 30

Chiefs +6 over Jaguars (Chiefs +6.5) lost by 3

Chiefs +1 over Raiders (Chiefs +1.5) won by 6

Steelers -6 over Chiefs (Steelers -9.5) won by 3

Chiefs +9 over Chargers (did not pick) lost by 29

Chiefs -2 over Broncos (Chiefs +4.5) lost by 31

Bills PK over Chiefs (Chiefs -.5) lost by 6

Chiefs -2 over Browns (Chiefs -2.5) lost by 7

Chiefs +3.5 over Cincinnati (did not pick) lost by 7

Broncos -3.5 over Chiefs (did not pick) won by 20

- - -

So the most important number would be how I do in-season, and I only went 7-6. Not great considering I should know this team better than the average bettor. Using the preseason pick, I was 7-9. Which makes sense. Vegas is bound to be better then me at forecasting teams months away.

What surprises me is how little the lines shifted. Even when the Chiefs were 2-7 going into the Steelers game, it only shifted 3.5 points. In other cases it moved less than a point. Basically if you had been betting against the Chiefs all year, you would have made some money.