Monday, January 11, 2010

playoff thoughts

First a quick look back:

Bengals/Jets. After the Bengals strike first, the rookie QB put it on the hands of Braylon in the endzone on a deep bomb, and it goes right through his arms. Greene makes up for the drop and then Revis turns the game on a pick.

Eagles/Cowboys. The public was right, the Eagles couldn't stop fumbling or stop Felix Jones.

Ravens/Patriots. The Ravens came out running and the Pats couldn't stop Ray Rice. I like Rice. He was good at Rutgers but people doubted he would make it in the NFL (drafted 55th overall that year). Also 2009 Brady is not 2007 Brady, injury or whatever.

Packers/Cardinals. After three uninteresting games, this one redeemed the weekend. This one was 31-10 in the 3rd! And then on 3rd and goal, Jennings makes a one-handed diving endzone catch. And then a successful surprise onside kick down 31-17! A fourth and one conversion later and it's 31-24. Then it's Fitz's turn to make an amazing one-handed diving endzone grab (Jennings was a harder catch) get it to 38-24 at the start of the 4th. Then it's a Green Bay 4th and 5 touchdown to get it to 38-31. Then after the Cardinal's only punt it's 38-38! Warner's 5th passing TD makes it 45-38 with 5 to go. Then Rodgers to Jennings, it looked like it was throwing it way or going to be a pick. It was amazing. A few plays later it's 45-45. But Warner has enough time go set Rackers up with a 34-yard attempt to win...shank!

And just when the Packers have all the momentum, Rodgers fumbles on 3rd down and it's over. It's hard to blame the public or any bettor for picking this game wrong--it was so back and forth either team could have won.

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Straight Up: 0-4
Against the Spread: 1-3

So I know nothing about playoff football.

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Conventional wisdom was that the NFC field was strong top to bottom, but that the AFC had weak 5th and 6th seeds. So of course, the top seeds won in the NFC and lost in the AFC.

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The 4 most interesting teams in the AFC would be the Colts, Chargers, Patriots and Ravens. But since the Pats played the Ravens that wouldn't be possible. A Patriots/Chargers game would have been great. But the Ravens/Colts should be good.

On the other side, Packers/Vikings would have been interesting, but I think Vikings/Cowboys is just as good. And I think Saints/Cardinals is perfect.

And forget about any classic games in January snow, all the remaining playoff games will be in domes/nice weather.

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Looking forward:

Cardinals at Saints, Saturday 3:30 pm
line opened: Saints -7
must watch rating: 5/5

High-flying passing attacks facing questionable defenses. Brees vs vintage Warner. Should be fantastic.

Ravens at Colts, Saturday 7:15 pm
line opened: Colts -7
must watch rating: 4/5

Will the Ravens be able to keep running and keep Manning off the field? Will the Colts rest hurt them? I'm not as excited about this one just because I think the Colts are too good and it won't be a nail-biter.

Cowboys at Vikings, Sunday noon
line opened: Vikings -2.5
must watch rating: 5/5

Given that you get 3 points for home-field, Vegas thinks the Cowboys are better than the Vikings. Hard to argue against that. Should be a great game.

Jets vs Chargers, Sunday 3:40 pm
line opened: Chargers -9
must watch rating: 2/5

I don't think the Jets have a chance. But what do I know? This looks to be the dud of the group, but things never go the way you think they will.

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