Brackets, Calcutta and other Madness

Since we already completed our calcutta and I don't really care how our bracket contest ends up, I'm going to go ahead and talk about my March Madness thoughts.

My Elite Eight looks like this:
1-3, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2.

Boring and wrong. I know it won't end up with that much chalk. So why pick it? Because in each case, I think those teams have the best chance of getting that far.

In considering which teams to get to the Elite Eight (and which teams to advance to the title game) I looked at the strength of the 3's and 4's in each region. So let's break it down by section.

SOUTH

Kentucky
Indiana
Baylor
Duke

Kentucky is the #1 overall seed, but I think Indiana can beat them.
If Kentucky is the #1 overall, that should mean that Duke is the worst #2. I like Baylor. I don't like Duke.

So I've got Kentucky meeting Baylor. But I picked Baylor to win the region, because I think they have a better chance of beating Duke than Kentucky does of beating Indiana.

WEST

Michigan State
?
?
Missouri

Louisville (4) could be a trendy upset pick to Davidson. A 5-12 is a tossup.
So I've got Michigan State easily to the S16.

On the bottom, I don't know anything about Marquette. So I just assume they stink. I've got Murray State in the S16. And I really like Missouri. So I've got them in the Elite Eight.

So I know that Izzo somehow always gets to the final four, but I think Missouri is super strong and I think they have an easier road. (Louisville may be picked to lose in the first round, but that doesn't mean they can't advance and possibly beat Mich. St.)

EAST

Same sort of thinking in the East.

I like Syracuse and Ohio State, but think that Ohio State has an easier road.

Wisconsin could be a tough out.

So I've got Ohio State beating Syracuse.

MIDWEST

I've got Temple beating Michigan. Either way, UNC has an easy road to the E8.

While the bottom half looks like a slugfest. Kansas, Georgetown, even SDSU could all get to the E8.

Just reaffirming that I like UNC to win the region.


FINAL FOUR

So here's my final four. In parens, I'm putting the number of tough games I expect each one to face to this point.

Baylor (2)
Missouri (1)

Ohio State (1)
UNC (1)

Based on that, there's a good chance that Baylor isn't in the final four at all. So advancing them another round is a serious risk.

And I knew in October I was going to pick UNC to win it all. Shit happens.

UNC over Mizzou.

Calcutta

Mark has the best team based on seeds. Niraj looks likes he has the worst. But they don't play games on paper.

Here are the teams I think have a good to reasonable chance to get to the Elite Eight:

Kentucky
Indiana
Baylor
Duke
Michigan St
Missouri
Murray St (half chance)
Syracuse
Wisconsin (half-chance)
Florida St
Ohio St
UNC
Gtown
Kansas

Here's our Calcutta rankings based on who has those teams:

Mark: 4
Niraj: 3.5
Dave: 3
Savan: 1.5
Matt: 1

Let's go one step deeper: Teams with a realistic shot at the Final Four:

Kentucky
Duke
Baylor
Mich St
Mizzou
Syracuse
Ohio State
UNC
Gtown
Kansas

Mark: 3
Dave: 3
Niraj: 2
Savan: 1
Matt: 1

Obviously, I don't know how things well shape up, and whoever owns the winning team will be the winner. And I like my chances of that being UNC.

But at the start of Final Four weekend, my best guess at the standings is:
Mark
Dave
Niraj
Savan
Matt