Monday, October 26, 2020

Razor Thin Fantasy Football Margin

(warning: this post is not safe for mark) 

With 1:12 to go, the Falcons trailed the Lions by 2 points. Atlanta had the ball at the 10 yard line and Detroit was out of timeouts. Lots of ways for the Falcons to win this. Take two knees and kick a chip shot. Run for a few yards, take at least 35 seconds off the clock, run again—either score or kick a chip shot. 

Instead, Todd Gurley runs it up the middle and the Lions let them score. Gurly realizes a half-second too late and tries to stop but he can't. 

 

Of course, with over a minute left that gave the Lions enough time to come down and win, or enough time for the Falcons to choke another game away. 

Great news for Mark, right?

Well, as it happened, we both had a bunch of fantasy players going head to head in this game. I had Gurley, Golladay and Hockenson. He had Atlanta's kicker, Koo.

If Gurley stops at the 1 everything changes. Here's what happened in our fantasy game that really shouldn't have:

Gurley TD = 6 pts
Pass to Hockenson = 1.5 pts
Pass to Golladay = 3.5 pts
TD Pass to Hockenson = 7.5 pts

My players got 18.5 pts in the last minute of the Lions-Falcons game because Gurley scored. But also Mark's kicker would have been the one to score if Gurley had stopped.

No FG for Koo = -3 pts

That's a 21.5 point swing on this margin:



I ended up beating Mark this week by 7 points.

1 comment:

  1. You know how you do a Hall of Fame for your posts? This is one of the worst. Even with the trigger warning.

    ReplyDelete