illini basketball 12-13 preview

Basketball recruiting is still foreign to me. It's not that hard of a concept, but it's strange to me that in September we get all excited about recruiting news...and then they don't play for another year. It would be like holding the NFL Draft a week before the college football season starts, but for the following year.

Further complicating things is that sometimes you get junior commitments. Case in point, a year ago SG Malcolm Hill committed to Illinois. And I missed the fact that he was a junior in high school. I wrote a full year ago that he would be playing for Illinois come fall 2012. Of course he's still in high school and won't be donning the orange and blue until fall 2013. So this article was getting excited about a player that was two years away from being an Illini.

Anyways, let's take a look at our 2012-2013 Illinois Basketball Team:
(with their Rivals national scouting rank)

Seniors: Richardson (38), Paul (42), Griffey (120)
Juniors: Bertrand (128), Rice (NR), Berardini (NR)
Sophomores: Henry (39), Abrams (58), Shaw (59), Egwu (97), Djimbe (NR)
Freshmen: Langford (NR), LaTulip (NR walk-on)

After Weber was fired, Jalen James (89) and Michael Orris (NR) decommitted from Illinois. They would have been freshmen on the 2012-2013 squad.

2013 Recruits: Kendrick Nunn (42), Malcolm Hill (64), Maverick Morgan (148)
Still in the hunt for Xavier Rathan-Mayes (25) (Edit: XRM chose FSU over Illinois) and Demetrius Jackson (27) (Edit: Jackson chose Notre Dame over Illinois)

- - -

And I know that rivals recruiting rankings are not the be all end all determination of a player, but it's about all I can go on.

Here's a forecast, even though it never happens like this:

2012-2013: Groce's first year, with two seniors who combined for 25 points a game last year, should fare pretty well.
2013-2014: A weak senior class opens to the door to lots of playing time for our deep junior class and our super awesome freshmen recruits. Perhaps a bit of a step down in performance.
2014-2015: Time for a deep tournament run. Led by a strong group of seniors and super awesome sophomores, Groce's third year puts it all together. Start booking your Indianapolis hotel rooms now.

What do the futures look like to win the 2013 National Title?

Indiana 8/1
Ohio State 18/1
Michigan 20/1
Michigan State 25/1
Wisconsin 50/1
Minnesota 65/1
Illinois 100/1
Purdue 100/1
Iowa 150/1

For completeness here were the 2012 Futures with conference finish and tournament status:

Ohio State 17/2 (1st, Final Four)
Michigan State 25/1 (2nd, Sweet Sixteen)
Indiana 30/1 (5th, Sweet Sixteen)
Michigan 35/1 (3rd, 1st round*)
Wisconsin 55/1 (4th, Sweet Sixteen)
Illinois 75/1 (10th, did not qualify the motherfucking NIT)
Minnesota 75/1 (9th, Title Game in NIT)
Purdue 75/1 (6th, 2nd round)

*lost to Groce's Ohio team which reached the Sweet Sixteen

Looking at this, I would say the pre-season futures were a better indicator than I would have guessed. Pretty darn close on the finishing of the top 5 schools and accurate on bracket finishes as well.

/looks back at 2013 Futures.

Fuck.