Wednesday, October 24, 2012

The Results of the 2000 Presidential Election if the Electoral College Awarded All States Proportionally

So a few days ago I posted How to Fix the Electoral College. I couldn't let it go.

Before I was sure that it was a good idea I needed to run the numbers and see what it would look like.

Here is the 2000 election showing state results comparing what happened to a proportional vote:


In 15 out of 51, due to rounding and 3rd party candidates, there was a leftover electoral vote. I awarded this to the candidate that won the state and marked these spots in teal. In Minnesota, due to rounding, there was an extra electoral vote. I deducted it from the candidate receiving the fewest votes, Nader.

(Also in 2000, DC had 3 electoral votes. One abstained in protest. So it's not on the chart above, but I've included it below in Gore's totals for math purposes.)

The popular vote totals:
Gore: 50,999,897
Bush: 50,456,002

Gore v Bush ratio = 50.268
Bush v Gore ratio = 49.732

Gore v Bush EC ratio = 267/538 = 49.628
Bush v Gore EC ratio = 271/538 = 50.372

Gore v Bush Prop ratio = 269/532 = 50.564
Bush v Gore Prop ratio = 263/532 = 49.436

So the EC was off the popular vote by .64
The Prop was off the popular vote by .296

It's more than twice as loyal to the popular vote, but I'm surprised it's not more so...there is quite a bit of rounding in this plan. Still mimicking the popular vote is not the main goal of this system. If it were, we could just use the popular vote.

- - -

Also, note that this system gives Nader 6 in the EC, compared to the 0 that he actually got in 2000. Not much but a truer representation that people actually voted for him.

- - -


Without running the numbers I am quite sure that in the 2008 election, Obama would have still won but it wouldn't have been as big of a blowout.

Quick analysis:

Obama's EC count: 365/538 = 67.844% of the nation's electoral votes
But Obama received 53.68% of the popular vote for the two main candidates.

- - -

What I love about this is that each state is no longer characterized as red or blue. Our states hold a mix of people and states like California and Texas that are solidly one way or the other, in reality are more nuanced. Not only would this create a better campaign season but it might not be so divisive on the country.



No comments:

Post a Comment