This has become the main storyline about the Avs success this year.
This piece from April 11, titled "Colorado Avalanche’s success is unsustainable" is the most definitive about their position.
You can also read about it on SI:
The Avs may be the season’s feel-good story, but listen to the Corsi Kids and they’ll tell you that Colorado’s Cinderella season ends here. The Avs allow too many shots against — 32.6 per game, a miserable 25th overall — and have thrived only due to a breakthrough season by Semyon Varlamov, whose save percentage rose from .903 in 2012-13 to a Vezina-worthy .927 this season. The pressure then falls squarely on Colorado’s no-name defense. Led by reclamation project Erik Johnson and featuring a crew of castoffs (Andre Benoit, Nate Guenin and Nick Holden), over-the-hill types (Jan Hejda and Cory Sarich), and the surprising Tyson Barrie, the Avs’ blueline corps managed to prove the doubters wrong all season. But Minnesota is a team that can create havoc on the forecheck, and the Wild will put consistent pressure on this group. Can Colorado’s defenders raise their level of play to meet the increased demands of the postseason? Or will they prove that the numbers wonks were right all along?
Or on Bleacher Report or ProHockeyTalk or The Hockey News or The Denver Post.
The central belief here is that lack of puck possession or being outshot will be the reason the Avalanche don't have playoff success.
The central argument is usually "You can't measure heart!"
I think both of those points are ridiculous.
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Look. I think those stats are good indicators of success. I would rather my team be doing well in those categories. But I also think 82 games is a decent sample size. Much better than 4-7 games against the Wild or Blackhawks.
But I don't think the answer is heart or guts anything like that.
Let's look at what we know.
The Avs have the 3rd best record in the league.
They are 4th in goals scored. 14th in goals against.
They are 20th in shots taken. They are 25th in shots allowed.
They are 6th in winning when leading after 1. And 3rd in winning when leading after 2.
The only goalie with a better save percentage than Varlamov is Tukka Rask (among goalies that played at least half their team's games. As a team, the Avs are 5th in save percentage.
To me, I think that shows the value of Corsi right there. They are 4th in scoring goals and have the 2nd best goalie. If they wouldn't give up so many shots, they'd be better than 14th in goals against.
And I know it doesn't make any sense, but when the Avs outshoot a team, they win 50% of the time. When they get outshot, they win 76.1% of the time.
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My main point is this: If the Avs lose to Minnesota or Chicago or whoever, I don't think it's fair to say that "advanced stats predicted this."15 out of 16 playoff teams are not going to win the Cup this year.
I agree that being good at Corsi is a good thing. But so is having a top (or hot) goaltender. So is scoring lots of goals.
If they lose a series, puck possession/being outshot will likely be a factor. But I would also expect it to be because the save percentage or scoring rate dropped from the regular season average. What I mean is that the Avs have been scoring goals and stopping shots at a certain rate over 82 games that was good enough to win the strongest division in hockey. If one of those slips, I think that's the main reason we'd lose.
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Let me try and explain it another way. I'm going to call Corsi, possession/shots since that's what it really is. I think a simpler name makes it easier to approach it as a single stat and not the be all end all.
All things being equal, the team with better possession/shots should win out over a 82 game season. But all things aren't equal.
The Avs are 20th in shots taken, yet 4th in scoring.
The Avs are 25th in shots allowed, yet 14th in goals allowed.
Perhaps this discrepancy is what statheads mean is unsustainable. That you can't expect over a 500-game sample to outperform the shots taken and shots allowed like they have. That's fair.
I could look the other way and say, hey we've got a hot goalie and hot scoring. If we could improve the puck possession a bit, we'd be the favorite.
Ryan Lambert's essentially saying the Avalanche wouldn't get past the first round. Of course, he was already wrong on one thing. He thought we'd be playing the Blackhawks.
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