Monday, May 09, 2016

Grading SI's Super Bowl Predictions since 1990

So someone posted all of SI's Super Bowl predictions since Super Bowl 25. 

And then someone else comes along and organizes the data.

They got the winner correct 4 out of 26 times, 15.3%.

They got a Super Bowl team correct 12 out of 52 times, 23%.

(I think it's interesting that by picking two teams to "place" instead of one team to win, is easier at exactly a 50% rate.)

Twice they got both teams correct: 1991 and 2010, but both times they got the winner wrong.

I couldn't crunch the playoff numbers for all teams, but I did it for the Chiefs.

They predicted the Chiefs would make the playoffs 11 times, getting 7 correct. (63%)

They predicted the Chiefs would miss the playoffs 15 times, getting 10 correct. (66%)

Total correct is 65%. Interesting that they did so well in predicting if the Chiefs would make the playoffs, and it didn't matter if they were good or not.

I don't know if I should say 65% is doing well or not actually, but it seemed impressive initially.




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