Opening the Super Bowl Window

In 2012, the Chiefs had 6 Pro Bowlers. Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson, Eric Berry and Dustin Colquitt. They went 2-14, 0-6 in the division.

In 2017, the Chiefs had 4 Pro Bowlers. Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Alex Smith. They went 10-6, 5-1 in the division and made the playoffs.

In the 5 years with Andy Reid and Alex Smith, the Chiefs made the playoffs 4 times. In the prior 5 years, they only made it once.

In 2012, Chiefs fans formed an organization called Save Our Chiefs and flew banners protesting the GM. Later that season, a Chiefs player killed his girlfriend and committed suicide in front of the GM.

It's hard to overstate how bad the Chiefs were before Alex and Andy came to town. How not fun the team was back then. And then how good and fun they've been with them.

In 2013, when I found out they were coming, I said the litmus test would be to win a playoff game. And they did! For the first time in my life, I sat there and watched the Chiefs win a playoff game. I now know what that feels like, thanks to primarily to Alex and Andy.

For the first time in franchise history, the Chiefs won the division in back to back years. That's good!

4 playoff trips in 5 seasons means you belong. You're not the Jaguars crashing the party. You're the Chiefs, you make the playoffs.

I guess most of all, the games mean something. The seasons are fun. It's fun to think about in the off-season. You have hope.

In 2003, the Chiefs were the #2 seed in the AFC. I knew the Patriots and Colts were tough, but the Chiefs had a real chance.

In 2015, the Chiefs won a playoff game. They had a chance.

In 2016, the Chiefs were the #2 seed in the AFC. Again, a real chance.

In 2017, the Chiefs looked great in the first half of their playoff game. They had a chance.

Some people can look at those chances and the fact that they never made an AFC Championship and complain about it. But you can also look at those chances and know that is a lot more fun than going 2-14.

Alex Smith has played his last game as a Chief. But he definitely left this team better than he found it. And I'll always remember the Mile High Miracle, the playoff win, the comeback against the Chargers, and all the other great wins. He was worth it.

- - -

For Washington, this trade looks pretty awful. Going from Cousins to Smith is about equal in production, but Smith is also 5 years older. Tom Brady aside, a lot of quarterbacks drop off after 35. Smith is better at not throwing picks, but I don't think he's making your team significantly better. He'll be fine, could help them win the division next year, but over the long-term, I think I'd rather have Cousins. But not only that, Washington gave up a 3rd round pick AND a great corner still on his rookie deal. Those are two prime assets. So why is Washington doing this?

Basically, they screwed up with Cousins. They made him play on 2 consecutive franchise tags because they wanted to see him prove it. Instead of keeping him and keeping their assets, they needed to replace him.

It's strange because I think Smith will be a good QB for them over the next few seasons and it pisses me off to see smug Eagles/Cowboys/Giants fans licking their chops over seeing Alex. I hope he does well and kicks some ass. But it's hard to believe that this trade will be worth it for Washington.

- - -

It's not rocket science. In basketball you want to shoot threes and lay-ups, not mid-range jumpers. In football, you want great players without having to pay them a lot. I don't think people talk about Tom Brady's salary enough. It's a huge difference maker.

The Chiefs have three years of the biggest efficiency in the game, a QB on his rookie deal. As we've seen with Winston and Mariota, it's only a game-changer if the QB plays at a Pro Bowl level. But every indication is that Mahomes can do that. He'll throw more picks, of course. But I expect some Drew Brees 400 yard, 2 score, 2 pick games that are good enough to win.

Now the Chiefs add Kendall Fuller, an awesome cornerback on his rookie deal. So our GM gets it. He understands the most obvious thing right now. The Chiefs had a pretty good team this past year. The defense could be a lot better. The offense struggled in the middle part of the season. But they were pretty good. Make them better with some free agents and draft picks, baby, you got a stew going. I was reading about the cliche that Belichick takes away your best player, and the analysis that a coach would rather have 11 average players than 6 good and 5 bad ones, and it got me thinking...it's more important to have depth and good players everywhere than it is to acquire a single all-star. To that end, Mahomes + Fuller + pick seems a hell of a lot better than just Alex Smith.

The Pat Mahomes era is here and it's exciting. (I mean, if he is a Brady/Rodgers/Manning type guy, you can compete for his whole career. But it's the first three years that give you the best chance.) You don't have to be the best team all three years--in fact, it's a little easier to suck for a year, get the easier schedule and draft picks and then reload. Brady will still be good next year. But the fall of 2019 or 2020? Brady and Big Ben will be older. The AFC could be wiiiiiiide open. I'm not saying to book your travel just yet, but you might want to keep these in mind.

2018 Season - Super Bowl 53 in Atlanta
2019 Season - Super Bowl 54 in Miami
2020 Season - Super Bowl 55 in Tampa

Hoagie Central Best Picture Nominations

John Wick 2
Get Out
Coco
The Big Sick

Favorite Board Games: January 2018

Previous Installments: 
July 2015
October 2015
January 2016
April 2016


At this point, I'm going to adjust my structure for these lists. I find it very hard to compare games that I've only played physical versions of with games that I've only played digital. I discovered that digital games are a solid way for me to play games that I wouldn't otherwise be able to play, since I no longer have a board game group around. However, the physical versions will always have the appeal of not looking at a screen, actually moving pieces around a board.

Tabletop Games I Own

Eldritch Horror

Scrabble

Monopoly

Police Precinct

Flash Point

Friday

Clue

Roll For It

Hostage Negotiator

Ticket To Ride

Cleopatra

Labyrinth

Onirim

Dead of Winter

Forbidden Island

A Duel Betwixt Us

Lost Cities

Clue: The Great Museum Caper

Zombie Dice

Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective

New York Slice

Skull

Time Stories

Secret Hitler

CV

Castle Panic

One Night Ultimate Werewolf

Ice Cool

New York: 1901

Escape: Curse of the Temple

Archeology

Scotland Yard

Tsuro

Onitama

Sushi Go

Love Letter

Kingdomino

Burgle Bros.

Codenames Duet

Codenames

Deception: Murder in Hong Kong

Pandemic

Pandemic Legacy: Season One

Digital Games I Own

Galaxy Trucker

Colt Express

Mysterium

Settlers of Catan

Clue

Ticket To Ride

Tsuro

Camel Up

Risk

Splendor

Carcasonne

Scrabble

Onirim

Mr. Jack Pocket

Jaipur

Scotland Yard

Patchwork

Possible Wish List

Detective - A Modern Crime Board Game !!!

Santorini

Deadline

Captain Sonar

Beyond Baker Street

Pandemic Legacy Season 2

Photosythesis

Deadwood 1876

Decrypto**

Spyfall 2*

Venture Angels

** = party games for our gaming group
!!! = excited

Imhotep (cool, simple family friendly game of building, somewhat similar to Archaeology)

Quadropolis (city building game for 2-4 with unique cool mechanics) maybe hold out and hope they build an app

Between Two Cities (don't have the group for this, but another cool city building game)

Dice Town (old west themed, dice rolling, economy game, when the kids are older)

Arboretum: (tree planting card game for 2-4 players, inexpensive)

Mafia de Cuba (secret role game for 6-12 players)**

Operation FAUST (bluffing art game for 3-8 players)

Robinson Crusoe (longer, complex survival game for 1-4 players)

The Networks (tv executive game, 1-5 players)

Freedom: The Underground Railroad (co-op historical game with serious theme)

[redacted] (bluffing, hidden information spy game best with 4 or 6 players)

The Resistance (like Mafia but without eliminating players, 5-10 players)

7 Wonders (civilization game, 2-7 players)

King of Tokyo (good first serious game for kids, 2-6 players)

Two Rooms and a Boom (cool party game for 12+)

Tesla vs Edison: War of Currents (complex invention and stock market history simulation, 2-5 players)

Letter Tycoon (better version of scrabble gameplay where you can patent letters, 2-5 players)

Portal: The Uncooperative Cake Acquisition Game (cool theme, not sure if good gameplay, 2-4 players)

Tobago (deduction and competitive treasure hunting, 2-4 players)

Train Heist (family game, 1-4 players)

Nations (civilization game, 1-5 players)

D-Day Dice

Infection: Humanity’s Last Grasp

Fugitive

Nations Dice?

Sad

The End of the Alex Smith Era

Let's start with some stats.

The Chiefs become the first team to blow two different playoff games, up 18 at halftime. So sure, the Falcons blew 28-3, the Oilers blew the 1993 game against the Bills...but now the Chiefs have done it twice. (Both blown games included a game where the opposing QB recovered a fluke loose ball and scored a TD.)

The Chiefs have lost their last 6 home playoff games. (And this is a team that has the loudest crowd, allegedly one of the toughest places to play.)

The Chiefs have lost 11 of their last 12 playoff games. (The only win was over a Texans team led by Brian Hoyer.)

This decade the Chiefs have made the playoffs 5 times out of 8 chances. They've been eliminated by 5 different teams, Ravens, Colts, Patriots, Steelers and now Titans. (I say this just to show this is not one team has our number.)

- - -

This game had a number of crazy plays. For a while it seemed like a new crazy play would cancel out the previous one.

The first one occurred with 2:41 left in the first half. Derrick Johnson sacks Mariota so hard the ball comes loose and the Chiefs recover it. The ref blows the play dead and rules "forward progress" so it's not reviewable. Plain and simple, it's a bad call. The sack was a hit, he wasn't driving him back. Even if you thought he was down before the ball comes out, it should be reviewable. This allows the Titans to kick a field goal and make it 14-3.

Moments later, the Chiefs catch a similar break. On the play where Kelce was concussed he dropped the ball and regathered as a Titan was ripping it away. Could have been reviewed and given to the Titans. Instead the Chiefs drive and make it 21-3 right before halftime. So at least both balls on the ground were called for the team with possession. It seemed like it all worked out. Though the Kelce injury was perhaps the play with the biggest impact on the game.

On the first drive of the second half, Mariota scrambles is crossing the line of scrimmage when he throws it. Revis bats it away and somehow Mariota is able to catch it and run it in. As I mentioned at the start, very similar to the Luck fumble in the previous Chiefs blown playoff game.

Next Chiefs drive, Kareem Hunt runs for 9 yards to set up a 3rd and 1. Chiefs run a option to the right and Titans destroy it. Chiefs punt but there's a running into the kicker. So Chiefs will get a first down, right? Nope, they call an offsetting penalty that they never showed. So Chiefs punt again and Titans muff it. Ball don't lie. So after a questionable option play and a possibly phantom offsetting penalty, the Chiefs end up with better field position anyways. Seems like it's all balancing out.

But then KC loses two yards and Butker, who set a record for Chiefs field goals made this year, doinks one off the upright. (His kick started out perfectly straight and halfway there, veered violently to the left. Wind? I don't know?)

From there the rest came down to the Chiefs couldn't get a 3rd down stop ever and couldn't get their offense going.

There were two times that it looked like Chiefs had recovered a scoop and score but the correct calls were made in both cases. (I'm okay with the second forward progress call. Sorenson hit Mariota at the 15 and the play was blown dead at the 25, the ball came out at the 27.)

Chiefs were 4/11 on 3rd down.
Titans were 8/13 on 3rd down.

Titans outgained Chiefs 397-325 and had more first downs 23-19.

The Titans were better on the whole by all the metrics. If the Chiefs had gotten a scoop and score to win at the end, the stats would have said the Chiefs won because of winning the turnover battle despite being outgained.

- - -

The thing that makes this one a bit easier? Hope is on the horizon.

Pat Mahomes looks like the real deal. Our version of Favre or Wilson. Andy Reid and Alex Smith did what hadn't been done in forever, which was win a playoff game. Now the Chiefs have a 3-year Super Bowl window where they have the biggest advantage in the NFL. (In theory) A Pro Bowl level QB on a rookie contract. Pair him with a great defense and that's how you win.

Might as well get the heartwrenching playoff loss out of the way early, I always say.

Predicting KC-TEN

I think the most likely Titans score is 13.
Second most likely is 19.
Third most likely is 20.


I think the Chiefs most likely score is 26.
Second most likely is 27.
Third most likely is 23.

So I guess 26-13 is my prediction.


Terez is usually spot on and he has Chiefs 20-17.
Simmons has Chiefs 22-11.

We'll see who is closest.

Choose Your Own Trump

I wrote a book. It would be nice if you bought it. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1973424037/

Fantasy Hindsight is 20/20

So during the Super Bowl 2-week period, my team put up the highest score:

Unfortunately I was knocked into the 3rd place matchup in the first round.

If I wanted to win the Super Bowl, and had 20/20 hindsight, the only path was to face Mark in the first round. Was there a way to do that?

Yep. If I would have gone 7-6, I would have been the 4th seed. I would have beaten Mark in the first round and beaten Jon in the Super Bowl.

If I had lost in weeks 6, 7, and 11 I would have gone 7-6 without sacrificing any of my weekly wins. So there's the lesson. Always rest your players.

Checking on my NFL Predictions

This year I made two sets on NFL predictions, one before the season started and another in early October. Let's check in and see which did better:

AFC

September: 3 teams correct, 1 spot correct
October: 4 teams correct, 1 spot correct

NFC 

September: 2 teams correct, 0 spots correct
October: 2 teams correct, 1 spot correct

- - -

In October, I correctly called the Pats as a 1-seed, the Bills as a 6-seed and the Panthers as the 5-seed.
But only 50% right after 4 games had been played...? I'm surprised I didn't do better. Let's go deeper.

In the AFC I thought the Texans with Deshaun Watson would win the division. I thought 2 playoff teams would come from Broncos, Bills, Titans, Jags. Instead we got 3.

The Broncos started 3-1 and the Jags were 2-2. Who knew the Broncos were frauds and the Jags were for real?

- - -

Likewise in the NFC, I trusted the Packers but their season was derailed by a QB injury.

I thought the Vikings injuries would be too much and I trusted the Seahawks based on history--both were wrong. I also thought Washington and Cowboys were better than they turned out to be.

Definitely didn't see the Rams and Eagles being world-beaters.

Turns out you can't predict the NFL even a month in.