Chiefs Roster: January to April

This was the Chiefs roster that was one snap away from the Super Bowl four months ago. Red lines are players no longer with the team. Tyreek Hill is suspended and will likely be cut, so I marked him in blue. 

The Chiefs defense was one of the worst in the league. Not only did the Chiefs reinvent the coaching staff, the defensive roster is going to look very different.

The tough thing, a lot of defensive players with lines through their names are good players. But they were either making too much money or getting older. Changes had to be made and strange as it sounds, good players had to be cut to make room for new players, whom we hope to be good.

Here's the unofficial depth chart as it stands now after the draft. This does NOT have UDFAs which it's very possible 1 or 2 make the final roster. (Looking at you Gary Johnson, Darius Harris and Cody Thompson)

So the draft parks are marked in green text automatically. Other key additions from the January roster:

Frank Clark DE
Alex Okafor DE
Tyrann Mathieu SS
Bashaud Breeland CB
Damien Wilson LB
Blake Bell TE

- - -

I feel good about the Offense. The line was pretty good last year and is mostly the same. Running back is deep: Damien Williams played well last year, Hyde is only 28 and the rookie Thompson is legit. Losing Hill's production hurts but drafting his replacement in Hardman was smart. Obviously he won't be the Pro Bowl receiver that Hill was, but you can't coach speed. And when you have the NFL MVP, it makes players like Robinson, Pringle, Coates look like quality guys. Kelce will be #1 and a lot more will be asked of Watkins without Hill.

On defense, two brand new safeties. The corners are young and have unknowns but I like them. The line should be good. It's the linebackers I'm worried about the most. But on paper this defense with new aggressive schemes could actually be a strength, not a weakness this year. Right now I'd project them as a top 12-16 defense.

The offense will take a step back but still should be a top 5 offense.

The ceiling for this team is the Super Bowl. The floor is a wild-card berth. Getting homefield advantage again is the best shot and it's not going to be easy. There's a bunch of teams that also got better this weekend.

Chiefs Day 2

So things can change quickly in the NFL. (One reason why I don't pay attention to mock drafts.) But now WR is a top need and so is CB. Luckily the Chiefs have two picks in Round 2 and few WRs and CBS were drafted in Round 1.

I'd love to get DK Metcalf and Greedy Williams but that would mean trading up and you also don't want to sacrifice the rest of your draft too.

Chiefs - Draft Trade 2019

I don't love the trade for Frank Clark.

I'll briefly make the case for it. He's a better player than you can get at #29 with no risk of being a bust. He's also ready to not just contribute now, but be an elite starter this year. The Chiefs are trying to win a Super Bowl this year.

Yesterday I came across a thread that paying an elite quarterback doesn't mean you can't compete. That all it takes it one elite starter on a rookie deal to cancel out the effect of paying the QB. So yes, the Chiefs are trying to win the Super Bowl this year, but they also have a NFL MVP QB for the next 15-ish years. We should be trying to create a large window of winning. And by giving up picks and paying a big contract for Clark, you give up the opportunity to get good players on rookie deals.

- - -

If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl in the next 3 years and Clark is as advertised, then the deal is worth it.

But I'd prefer to invest in the draft, try to hit on as many rookies as possible.

- - -

Once you move past the trade from the GM-team-building point of view, and start looking at the defense from the on-the-field point of view, it's kind of amazing how different this team is. The Chiefs had the best offense and one of the worst defenses and they've completely revamped the D. So from that perspective, you're glad they're making moves and not just standing pat.

Mock Draft 2019

I don't know anything about college players but thought it would be fun to do anyways. Maybe I'll look back one day and see how I did. I tried two different sites, so the results look different.

Avs win a Playoff Series!

Of course, the #1 rule is act like you've been there before.

But I haven't been here before.

Look, I'm not going to sit here and say this means the Avs are going to win the Cup or win another series. But it's just kinda cool to win a series. You get to look around and all the teams that didn't make the playoffs this year. Then you get to see the playoff field cut in half. Crosby is on the golf course. The top seeds in each conference are done. 

- - -

When I think about the series, I think about how close it actually was. Calgary dominated the first game and the Avs pulled their goalie in Game 2. Game 4 went to OT so the Flames were one goal away from heading back to home ice 2-2. 

I think about how many times in many sports, it feels like my teams have been the Flames in this series. Where it was so close but my team came up short and then no one cares. Illinois in the Final Four. The Avs vs the Wild. The Chiefs forever in the playoffs. No one cares that it was close. To the victors go the spoils. 

For years, I saw other NFL teams complete deep passes with ease and just thought that wasn't meant for the Chiefs. For over a decade, every time the Chiefs had an open deep receiver it was just a foot off the mark. Well, I've seen those passes get completed and then some. I've seen the Avalanche power through and win a playoff series. You wait long enough and good things can happen. Not for every team, but it can happen. 

- - - 

The Avs had a huge slump this year, two of them really. But they finished hot to make the playoffs. Then they added Makar and are 3-0 with him in the lineup. So they're peaking at the right time. Which is all you can ask of an avalanche. 

Sharing the Playoffs: NBA and NHL

I've always enjoyed how the NBA and NHL playoffs overlap. The leagues also share arenas.

I started thinking about the potential for 2 series across sports to be played simultaneously in shared arenas (ie New York is playing Boston in the same round of the playoffs in both sports in the same arenas.)

First we need to breakdown the teams. There are three categories of shared arenas:

Eastern Conference Arenas

Knicks/Rangers
Celtics/Bruins
76ers/Flyers
Wizards/Capitals
Raptors/Maple Leafs
Nets/Islanders
Pistons/Red Wings

Western Conference Arenas

Nuggets/Avalanche
Clippers or Lakers/Kings
Mavericks/Stars

NBA Eastern/NHL Western Arenas

Bulls/Blackhawks

- - -

Because the Chicago teams are in separate conferences (and they don't have a West/East counterpart) they're useless to this exercise and can be ignored.

Hypothetical Limit

There are 15 playoff series in each league. (7 in each conference plus the championship)

With 3 cities in the West, there could be 2 on that side. With 7 cities in the East, there could be 6 series on that side. Plus the championship makes 9 series.

(Another way of looking at it. 10 sharing cities means in a field of 16, there are 6 non-sharing cities. Subtract those 6 from the 15 playoff series, makes 9 shared series.


2019 Hypothetical Limit

Here are the cities where both teams made the playoffs this year:

Denver
Boston
Toronto
Brooklyn

So 4 sharing cities. 12 non-sharing cities. Theoretical limit this year based on just the list of playoff teams was 3 series in shared arenas. (two series pairing up the three teams in the East, and then a East vs West)

In the NBA, the first possible meeting of these cities would be Nets-Raptors in the second round. But Maple Leafs and Islanders wouldn't meet until the third round (Conference Finals).

Boston could meet either NBA team in the Conference Finals...and the Bruins could meet the Islanders in the Conference Finals.

So that's our first possibility this year: Celtics vs Nets AND Bruins vs Islanders. Both in the Conference Finals with all games being played at TD Garden and Barclays Center.

The other possibility this year is Denver vs Boston/Toronto/Brooklyn in the Finals.

- - -

I started down this path thinking about arenas, but really it's not so much the sharing arenas that's the neat part as the sharing cities in the same round. Like it's about the fan bases, not the buildings.

For example, the Wild and Timberwolves both play in Minneapolis/St. Paul but not in the same arena. But if the Wild were playing the Bruins for the Cup while the Timberwolves were playing the Celtics in the Finals, it's basically the same effect, even if they're playing in separate buildings when they're in Minnesota. (I mean, part of why I thought the sharing arenas thing was cool was the scheduling aspect, but the shared fan base thing is still cool.)

So if you expand to consider those, you could include Panthers/Heat, Wild/Timberwolves, Sharks/Warriors, Coyotes/Suns, Ducks/Lakers-Clippers.

For this year, the only market that adds is the Bay area. In fact, Avs could play the Sharks next round and Nuggets and Warriors were top 2 seeds, but wouldn't meet until conference finals.

So now I'm curious, has there ever been a simultaneous series between cities?

When you Google it, the results are focused individual cities making the Finals in multiple sports at the same time, which happens occasionally. But Nets vs Spurs while Devils vs Ducks isn't what I'm after.

I'd even be curious if I expanded the simultaneous restriction to same year. Because it would suck to get knocked out of the playoffs by the same city twice in the same year...

Board Games: April 2019

Previous Installments: 

July 2015
October 2015
January 2016
April 2016

January 2018

Tabletop Games I Own

Eldritch Horror

Scrabble

Monopoly

Police Precinct

Flash Point

Friday

Clue

Roll For It

Hostage Negotiator

Ticket To Ride

Cleopatra

Labyrinth

Onirim

Dead of Winter

Forbidden Island

A Duel Betwixt Us

Lost Cities

Clue: The Great Museum Caper

Zombie Dice

Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective

New York Slice

Skull

Time Stories

Secret Hitler

CV

Castle Panic

One Night Ultimate Werewolf

Ice Cool

New York: 1901

Escape: Curse of the Temple

Archeology

Scotland Yard

Tsuro

Onitama

Deadwood 1876

Decrypto

Sushi Go

Burgle Bros.

Kingdomino

Spyfall 2

Detective - A Modern Crime Board Game 

Codenames Duet

Love Letter

Codenames

Deception: Murder in Hong Kong

Pandemic

Pandemic Legacy: Season One

Digital Games I Own

Galaxy Trucker

Colt Express

Mysterium

Settlers of Catan

Clue

Ticket To Ride

Scrabble

Tsuro

Camel Up

Risk

Splendor

Carcassonne

Tokaido

Paperback

Onirim

Mr. Jack Pocket

Onitama

Jaipur

Scotland Yard

Patchwork

Pandemic

Possible Wish List

Santorini!!

Azul!

7 Wonders (app)

Deadline

Captain Sonar

Beyond Baker Street

Pandemic Legacy Season 2

Photosynthesis

Venture Angels

Crpytid (Tobago replacement)

** = party games for our gaming group

!! = excited 

Imhotep (cool, simple family friendly game of building, somewhat similar to Archaeology)

Quadropolis (city building game for 2-4 with unique cool mechanics) maybe hold out and hope they build an app

Between Two Cities (don't have the group for this, but another cool city building game)

Dice Town (old west themed, dice rolling, economy game, when the kids are older)

Arboretum (tree planting card game for 2-4 players, inexpensive)

Mafia de Cuba (secret role game for 6-12 players)**

Operation FAUST (bluffing art game for 3-8 players)

Robinson Crusoe (longer, complex survival game for 1-4 players)

The Networks (tv executive game, 1-5 players)

Freedom: The Underground Railroad (co-op historical game with serious theme)

[redacted] (bluffing, hidden information spy game best with 4 or 6 players)

The Resistance (like Mafia but without eliminating players, 5-10 players)

King of Tokyo (good first serious game for kids, 2-6 players)

Two Rooms and a Boom (cool party game for 12+)

Tesla vs Edison: War of Currents (complex invention and stock market history simulation, 2-5 players)

Letter Tycoon (better version of scrabble gameplay where you can patent letters, 2-5 players)

Portal: The Uncooperative Cake Acquisition Game (cool theme, not sure if good gameplay, 2-4 players)

Tobago (deduction and competitive treasure hunting, 2-4 players)

Train Heist (family game, 1-4 players)

Nations (civilization game, 1-5 players)

D-Day Dice

Infection: Humanity’s Last Grasp

Fugitive

Nations Dice?

Guide to Keeping Sports Trophies

NFL
Lombardi Trophy
A new Lombardi trophy is made every year. The winning team keeps the trophy.

(This means that while there are lots of replicas, the number of official Lombardi trophies should always equal the number of Super Bowls. The Chiefs have one Lombardi Trophy. There are pictures of it in the Hall of Honor, so that will be something I'll have to look for. So when Gronk dented the Lombardi, it was the one from Super Bowl 53.)


NHL
Stanley Cup
The winning team does not get to keep the trophy. They get to celebrate for a few months and then give it back.

(There is one official Stanley Cup that teams get to hold and celebrate with. There are two other official versions. One is the original 1892 bowl. The other a 1993 "Permanent Cup" that stays at the Hockey Hall of Fame. So when teams dent the Stanley Cup, it's the same one that will be presented next year and they have to fix it. Three bands have been retired—removed from the Cup and placed in the Hall of Fame. First ring to be retired: 1927–1939. Second ring to be retired: 1940–1952. Third ring to be retired: 1953–1964. Based on the current structure a team gets to stay on the cup for 53 to 64 years.)


NBA
Larry O'Brien Trophy
A new trophy is made every year. The winning team keeps the trophy.

(This tradition only started in 1977. Before there was only one championship trophy and a team got to keep it all year and then hand it off to the next champion.)


MLB
Commissioner's Trophy
A new trophy is made every year. The winning team keeps the trophy.

(It was first awarded in 1967. So the Yankees have 27 titles but only 7 trophies. Interesting that in football, fans really focus only on Super Bowl wins, not pre-SB NFL Championships, while there's no distinction for MLB titles before the trophy was created. It is only presented on the field if the home team won.)

I wasn't going to include MLS, but their tradition is unique so here it is.


MLS
Philip F. Anschutz Trophy
The winning team does not get to keep the trophy. They keep it for the offseason then return it to the league. They club is then awarded a duplicate they get to keep.

(Although it's the least iconic trophy, the system isn't bad. There's only one official trophy but teams still get something to keep.)



(Cue comment from Mark about how the Stanley Cup is the best trophy.)

Breaking Down the 2019 Chiefs Schedule

Last year I was so psyched for the then-unknown Patrick Mahomes that I broke down the schedule. Then he became NFL MVP. Let's do it again.

- - -

Chiefs open on the road for the third consecutive year. The Chiefs beat the Jags last year and sent them into a spiral. Now they have Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles, so who knows what to expect from the Jags this year.

Last time the Chiefs played the Raiders it was 35-3. This year, Antonio Brown is a divisional rival. Serious test for the new Chiefs defensive unit/scheme.

Same as last year, the home opener isn't until week 3. Chiefs get the Ravens in a rematch of one of last year's best games. Should be a good one.

Then the Chiefs play their 3rd road game in September in Detroit. This will be Mahomes first NFL dome game. In theory, assuming Tyreek is active, this would be a track meet.

Week 5 is the first primetime game, SNF at Arrowhead. The Colts come to town in a rematch of Mahomes' first playoff game and win. (Chiefs fans are annoyed that KC has had to play at NE so much, but Ravens and Colts should be annoyed that they are coming to KC in back to back years.)

I've theorized that Watson vs Mahomes should be the next Brady vs Manning in the AFC over the next 10 years. The Texans come to Arrowhead for their first glimpse at Mahomes.

Week 7 is 4 days later. The Chiefs have to go to Mile High. In their last 26 divisional games, Chiefs are 1-3 on Thursdays. 22-0 on any other day. So I was hoping they wouldn't get a divisional TNF game. The good news is that the Broncos will be likely be starting Joe Flacco. But on the road, on short rest, in altitude, anything can happen.

Chiefs are back on SNF in Week 8, again at home, for the Packers. NBC is already salivating about running Rodgers vs Mahomes graphics. Marquee game. I like that Chiefs have an extra 3 days to get ready for the game that Green Bay doesn't have.

The Vikings come to Arrowhead in Week 9, part of a stretch with 4 home games in 5 weeks.

Chiefs go to Tennessee in Week 10. Who even knows if Mariota will be healthy at that point?

Instead of going to Stubhub Center (Arrowhead East) the Chiefs will go to Mexico City to play the Chargers. With any other team, you like a neutral over a road game, but this one could be tougher there than in LA. It's on MNF.

Bye week comes just before Thanksgiving.

Raiders come to Arrowhead. They should be 4-7 by that point, right?

Week 14. Chiefs at Patriots. The big rematch. Who knows what the records will be, but very much ought to have some playoff implications, likely bye week if not homefield.

Then the Broncos come to town. Again, hoping they're thinking draft by this point in the season.

Last road game is at Chicago on SNF. Nagy vs his mentor Reid. Cold night game with wind swirling should be ideal conditions for the Bears.

Chiefs close the season at home vs the Chargers. The first goal of any season is win the division. If it comes down to needing to beat the Chargers for the division, or a bye, or home field, I like to have that game at Arrowhead.


Home Games That Would Be The Most Fun To Go To

All the home games have appeal this year.

Home opener.
Colts rematch on SNF.
Mid-October vs Texans, the best football weather.
Packers on SNF.
eh, Vikings, last game with great weather
Then close with the 3 divisional games in December, always fun.



Home Games on Chiefs Hit List

Of home opponents, I've yet to see the Chiefs beat: Ravens, Colts, Texans, Packers, Vikings, Chargers.

I really love October games, when it's just the right amount of chill in the air. I also like night and day games about equally. Night games are special, but there's something great about day games too. Also, it's pretty fun to watch SNF games on TV. Texans game happens to be on my new anniversary.

I wouldn't pick Week 17 because you never know if you're resting players or not.

So when it comes to picking a game to go to...

Colts, Texans or Packers would all be A+
Nothing wrong with the home opener or the Vikings in early November either.

Avs on the Verge

Five years ago, I saw one of my teams win a playoff game for the first time. I've still yet to see the Avalanche win a series. That year they won the division but lost in the first round. This year they barely snuck in at the 2nd wild card in the West (read: the 8th seed). They're now sitting up 3-1 over Calgary.

- - -

If you're a Calgary fan, you've got to be wondering how did this all go so wrong?

Game 1 was 4-0 Flames. Calgary looked like a far superior team. They had home ice. This had sweep potential.

Game 2, Calgary was up 2-1 late in the 3rd. The Avs pulled their goalie with 3 minutes to go in desperation. And JT Compher decides this would be a good time to get his first career playoff goal. It goes to OT. Nathan MacKinnon snipes the top shelf winner.



Meanwhile, the Avs #4 draft pick Cale Makar (the NCAA player of the year) just finished the Frozen Four. So he joins the Avalanche immediately. Game 3 will be his NHL debut.

Game 3 is in Denver. The Flames hit the post on an early power play. Then MacKinnon scores. MacKinnon scores again. (It's not a hat trick, but it is 3 goals in the last 15 minutes of game time, going back to Game 2's OT.) And then...Cale Makar drives in with the puck. Takes his first NHL shot. And it goes in.



He joins a list of 7 players to make their NHL debut in the playoffs and score. First defenseman. Welcome to the show. The Avs control the game, win 6-2.

Game 4. Calgary is up 2-0 in the 3rd. At this point, they seem to have the advantage in the series. Just close out a 2-0 lead and go back to Alberta with a 2-2 series tie and home ice in Games 5 and 7. Flames fans could be thinking Calgary in 6. Win at home and then close out the series in Denver, just like they won Game 4. Compher scores with 12 minutes to go to make it a 2-1 game.

Exactly like Game 2, Calgary has a 2-1 lead with 3 minutes to go. In Game 2, Colorado tied it with 2:39 to go. In Game 4, Colorado tied it with 2:50 to go. MacKinnon to Rantanen.

Free hockey. The Flames have a point blank chance to win the game but Grubauer lifts his pad to make the save.

Then Rantanen scores (back to back goals for him) to win the damn game.

Avs take a 3-1 series lead.

- - -

I expect this series to come back to Denver. Calgary was the #1 team in the West, they had an electric atmosphere up there and with their backs against the wall, another 4-0 Flames win wouldn't surprise me.

Given that assumption...Game 6 in Colorado becomes everything. Your chance to close it out at home. If the Flames win that one, they'd have the momentum and home ice advantage in Game 7. I love the construction of 2-2-1-1-1.

The Flames could have flipped the series by getting that goal in OT. Now they're facing elimination.

Bracket Recap 2019

Harrison won the bracket for his second time, despite Mark getting 320 points for Virginia winning it all. Before the title game he was in the top 2600 out of 17.2 million brackets. 

A Study in Bracketology

Shea Serrano pulled together a massive list of prizes for his women's bracket contest and got over 13,000 entries in his group alone. I knew the odds of winning were slim, but since the limit on entering brackets was 25, I wanted to see if I could at least get a perfect Final Four, Championship Round, and Champion.

There were 6 teams likely to make the Final Four. That made it pretty easy. I submitted 12 brackets.

The end results are skewed by all the ones picking Baylor jumping to the top. The column to watch is actually the one marked E8. This round consists of 4 games, each worth 80 points. Of my 12 brackets, 2 had all four games correct. (The others had a combination of the four that made it, plus Miss St and Louisville. Once Baylor and ND made it to the Final Four, I was covered no matter what happened in the other games.)

But that's just the Final Four. Of the 2 brackets, that had that correct, I had two remaining scenarios covered: Baylor over Notre Dame and Notre Dame over Baylor. Luckily, those teams met in the Championship. You can see the 2 brackets that earned 320 in E8 also earned 320 in F4.

Once that happened, I was covered either way. The question was would the points go to bracket #8 or bracket #4.

With only 6 teams in contention for the Final Four and two teams heavily favored to meet each other, I only needed 8 brackets to finish 320-320-320. (Brackets 9-12 were covering the bases of the other more unlikely scenarios.)

So I managed to finish 136th out of 13,000+. Not bad.

By comparison, the winner got 100 more points. 6 more games correct in the first three rounds.