Weight Loss By Month: September 2020

August:       12 pounds

September:  7 pounds

- - -

Let's back up a little. On Jan 1, 2020 I reached a new personal weight high. Over the next two months I lost a total of 19 pounds. Then a pandemic hit. From March through July, I gained 21 pounds. That's about a pound a week, just eating whatever I wanted. Lots of pepperoni and pepper jack sandwiches. Bagels and cream cheese. Nutter Butters. Things like that. More than the foods themselves, was the amount of food. Lots of snacks, big meals at every mealtime. Some people gain a Freshman 15. I gained a Corona 21. 

So if you're keeping track, by August 1, 2020 I reached a new personal weight high. And then over the next two months I've lost a total of 19 pounds.

This year I've gained 21 pounds and lost a total of 38 pounds. 

- - -

I've had a couple of realizations. 

1. I need to let go of the idea that I can eat whatever I want. When I'm not losing weight, which tends to be about 8 or 9 months out of a typical year for me, I base every food decision on taste. Like, I got into this habit with a co-worker that for every day we would go out to lunch and pick something that's delicious. Go to a sandwich place and get a big Italian sub with chips, or go to Five Guys for a burger with fries, or Raising Cane's for chicken tenders and fries, etc. 

Well, I'm now classifying that thought process of I can choose everything on taste as a "thought process from my 20's." I can't do that anymore. It's helped to talk to friends (who else?) like Niraj and hear him say that he tries to eat healthy meals for about two-thirds of his meals in a week. 

2. My mom told me I better get to my goal weight by 40 because it gets a lot harder after that. I'm three years away from 40.

3. I've never been able to eat at maintenance. But I've realized that my "maintenance" is going to be the same as what I'm eating now to lose weight. It's likely that if I keep eating exactly what I'm eating right now, (say 1750 calories) that my body won't lose weight on that forever. It will get used to that and I'll settle at a healthy weight. 

So yeah, I basically need to stick to how I'm eating forever. I've figured out how to do without writing things down. I just need to train myself that this how I have to do things always, not a temporary thing I can switch off for months at a time.

Fun Fact

The last time the Ravens had the ball with a chance to even tie the game was with 10 minutes left to go in the 2nd quarter. They went 3 and out. 

The Ravens cut it to 27-20 at the start of the 4th quarter. The Chiefs go out and execute a 13-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to essentially ice the game. 

MNF Postgame - quick thoughts

Andy Reid was out there flexing on them. Middle screens, shovel passes, deep passes, lineman passes. 

Lamar is 0-3 vs Mahomes. 

Chiefs are in the driver's seat for the #1 seed, with a game in hand plus the tiebreaker over the Ravens, and 3-0 in the conference already. 

Chiefs have Pats and Raiders at home. Then tough game at Buffalo. But then...Broncos, Jets, Panthers, bye week. Even if they drop 2 out of the next 3, that's 7-2 at the bye. Plus, Denver, Miami and Atlanta in December. 

By the way, Chiefs just set a franchise record for consecutive wins at 12.

- - -

But my favorite moment of the night...

You wouldn't think it would be possible for Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP and come in to 2020 with a chip on his shoulder, but he was ranked #4 in the NFL Top 100. Lamar got #1. Mahomes was watching that night and tweeting that he was taking note.

On Mahomes' first possession, he ran it in for a TD himself, as if to say you're not the only one who can score that way. Then after his fourth touchdown pass he did this:

Prior to season, Mahomes was ranked #4 on @NFL’s Top 100 list.

He’s counting to four, but not for the number of TD passes on the night. https://t.co/3HZ9zz00hq

— Jarred Latta (@jarredlatta) September 29, 2020

After the game he was asked if counting to four was about his NFL Top-100 ranking. "I think I had four touchdowns at that point," he said, with an obvious smile.

If I told you the Bears benched Trubisky in Week 3 trailing by 16 in the 3rd quarter, and then asked you to guess their record...I feel like 0-3 is the most likely result. 1-2, then 2-1, and finally 3-0 as the least likely. 

MNF quick thoughts

 Man, winning a Super Bowl changes everything. 

A year ago in this situation, I would be so stressed about tonight's game. Yes, there's a lot riding on it. There's only one playoff bye now, so if it comes down to Chiefs-Ravens for homefield advantage and the bye, this game counts double. 

But the Chiefs are 2-0 vs Lamar's Ravens and have already won it all. All the pressure is on them. The 2019 Chiefs faced a similar situation with the Patriots. In 2018, the Chiefs couldn't get by the Pats and the Pats won the SB. In 2019, KC beat them and went on to win. 

Now it's the Ravens turn. They have to get the monkey off their back.

Either way, the Chiefs will still be ahead in the Mahomes vs Lamar series and Mahomes vs Lamar rings rivalry. 

So I can just watch and see what happens. Here's hoping for a good game. 

2020 Census: Favorite Sports Teams

After looking forward to this series last year, it turns out I'm running out of 2020. 

Wait, that's a bad start. Let me start over. 

Welcome to the 2020 Hoagie Central Census. A personal time capsule so that every ten years I can take stock of who I am and what I'm into. First topic is an easy one. My favorite sports teams. 

The first is a no-brainer. 

After that, the next three are pretty close. I'm thinking about which teams I follow the news on the most, which games I watch the most, and which teams I'd most want to see win a championship. What makes this hard is that it's basically impossible to imagine Illinois Football winning a national championship. Even a Big Ten title seems out of reach. This shouldn't matter, but it ends up affecting things. I don't sit down and watch Illinois football games because they lose so much. 

If I could choose between seeing the Avs lift the Cup and the Illini cut down the nets in April...I'd rather see Illinois. For one thing, I am an Illini. I went there and graduated. I was born in Kansas City and moved to Colorado, but neither of those provides as much ownership as choosing where to go to college and actually becoming an Illini. 

Also, and maybe this is silly, but if the Avalanche won, I feel like the hockey world wouldn't care. It's no different if Tampa or Dallas win, just another franchise. They've already won this century. But if Illinois won a title? That's a reputation changer. College basketball fans would see Illinois differently. 

So here's where I stand right now:

(basketball)

(football)

Those are the four that I care about. Still don't have an NBA team or MLB team. I was a bandwagon Royals fan in 2014 and 2015 and thankful that I can go back to not caring about that team. 

I've been in KC for almost 4 full years now and never been to a Sporting KC game, so I'm not even bandwagon status there. 

Really, after those four teams above what I care about most is my Calcutta teams or my fantasy football team. 

And then when US Soccer or Olympic curling or whatever has a moment, I'm ready to hop on the bandwagon. Still hard to believe that after almost advancing to the final 8 in the 2014 World Cup, that the US missed the 2018 World Cup. 

2010 version

Travis Kelce, All-Time TE Most Yards Per Game

In the offseason, I wrote this: 

By the way, the all-time stats for tight ends, yards per game:

1st is Gronk with 68. 

2nd is Kelce with 67. 

3rd is Kittle with 65. 

Well, 2 games into the season and Gronk has fallen and Kelce has risen. Thanks for coming back Gronko!

New Stadium, Same Result: Chiefs beat the Chargers to get to 2-0

The NFL season just started and for some teams it feels like it's already over. 

Credit to Chargers defense, they pressured Mahomes and made him look downright human in the first half. I was down on the Chargers this year because I thought Taylor would be their QB for a while. Well, he was until his own team doctor punctured his lung. Now that's a bad way to lose your job. 

We got to see Herbert and he showed why he was worthy of a first round draft pick. The Chiefs trailed 17-6 with 23 minutes to go in the game.

In the 3rd quarter, Joey Bosa gets his first sack of Mahomes which leads to 4th and 15 on the LA 40. Not a lot of great options here. A field goal is from 58. A punt doesn't do much good. And 4th and 15 is a lot to ask. Andy Reid sent out Butker to try the 58-yarder. He cleared with 5 or 6 to spare. This would be important later.

Ensuing drive, Chargers are up 8 and driving. Herbert takes off scrambling and is about to pick up a first down and put LA in field goal range, making it a two-possession game. 

If you're Herbert in the moment above you have a few options:

a) run for the first down and safely go out of bounds

b) run for the first down and fight for every yard on the ground

c) chuck it across your body deep downfield into triple coverage

Now you or I might choose a or b, but we are not first-round picks. Herbert chooses c.

The rookie Sneed picks it off for the Chiefs, his second in as many games. 

Next drive, Mahomes does this:

Here's a tweet where you can see alternate angles. Hill is not at all open when Mahomes lets this one go:

That's Hill at the top of the screen, at the 33. He would catch it at the 8.

Tyreek takes his helmet off after the play, which should have been a penalty that moved the 2-pt conversion out of range. The refs don't call it and Mahomes converts that too. 

Then on the biggest play of the game for the Chargers offense, 3rd and goal, 3 minutes to go...Herbert holds the ball out for a handoff or fake handoff to the right side, and the running back is on the left side. 

At the end of regulation, Mahomes converts 3rd and 20 on the ground, and overcomes a bunch of penalties to send the game to OT. 

In OT, the Chargers faced a 4th and 1. They punted and never saw the ball again. 

Butker makes a 53 yard field goal, but there's a flag.

Butker makes a 58 yard field goal, but there's a timeout.

My legs are tired at this point and I'm only watching.

Then Butker makes 58 and that's the ballgame.

Here were the Chiefs possessions on Sunday:

Punt

Punt

Punt

Touchdown (xp blocked)

Punt

--halftime--

Punt 

58 yard Field Goal

Touchdown (2pt)

30 yard Field Goal

58 yard Field Goal

After four punts in the first half, Mahomes ends the game with 4 straight scoring drives. 

Mahomes, uh, finds a way. 

The last six times Mahomes has trailed by 10, he's won all six. Including three playoff games. That streak, is a NFL record by the way. 

- - -

That makes the Chiefs 11-1 vs the Chargers in their last 12 meetings. Beating the Chiefs is so rare for them, they printed up t-shirts the one time they did it.

T-shirts are cool, I guess. But I think the better fashion choice for winning a big game is a ring. 

holy shit, is it 5781 already?

 Imagine trying to blow a shofar through one of these.

The 4 Times Vic Fangio's Broncos Lost a Lead in the Final 30 Seconds

In Week 1, Fangio didn't use any of his timeouts as the Titans were in field goal range on the final drive. After the Titans made a field goal, the Broncos were down 2 with 17 seconds left. They lost. 

I heard a stat that this was the 4th time that Fangio's Broncos have lost a game where they were leading with 30 seconds to go. This was his 17th game. 4 out of 17 seemed high, indicating a repeated failure of clock management, but let's go deeper to find out.

 

- - -

Week 2, 2019

Broncos were trailing 6-13 in the final two minutes. They convert a 4th and 3 with a minute to go, and get the touchdown with 31 seconds left. (They actually miss the PAT but Bears were offside, so the Broncos then went for two and got it, taking the lead 14-13 with 31 to go.) Against Trubisky and their kicking woes, this seemed safe. A terrible roughing the passer call helped the Bears get into field goal position and they actually made a 53-yarder. 

Verdict: Not a Fangio clock management issue

Week 4, 2019

Down 17-23 against the Jaguars, the Broncos had 1st and goal from the 8 with 1:32 to go. Got the touchdown on first down and took the lead. Ensuing drive, Broncos again get called for roughing the passer. The Jags get two big plays and get to the Denver 10 with 56 seconds left. BUT, the Broncos only had one timeout left. They had burned two on previous drives. They were unable to prevent the Jags from running the clock down and converting a chip shot.

Verdict: A Fangio clock management issue

Week 8, 2019

Once again on the final drive, the Broncos get called for a personal foul. When the Colts got to the Broncos 34, Denver started calling timeouts. They only had two, so when Vinatieri made a 51-yarder, the Broncos had 22 seconds left. It would be nice to have all three timeouts but at least they were using them at the right time. 

Verdict: A borderline Fangio clock management issue

So there you go. That 4 out of 17 stat makes it seem like an awful clock management situation, but really it's a team in a lot of close games AND the real issue was the three personal fouls.

Peeking at the Chiefs Schedule

First off, the last time I saw the Chiefs win a game in person was in 2017. Jamaal Charles was in the game. As a Bronco. Gross.

The last two games I saw in person were in 2017 (loss to Bills) and 2019 (loss to Colts)

I didn't go to a game in 2018 (partially because I thought I might get tickets through work and partially because I got fired and couldn't justify spending the money.)

And now it's 2020 and I'm unlikely to go because of Covid. 

- - -

Real quick, I might as well look at the 8 home games and think about them anyways. 

September

Texans, NFL opening night, SB LIV banner ceremony

October

Patriots, Sunday afternoon, Cam Newton
LV Raiders, Sunday noon

November

Jets, Sunday noon
Panthers, Sunday noon

December

Broncos, Sunday night football
Falcons, Sunday noon
Chargers, Sunday noon

I gotta say, from a fan attending games perspective, kind of a dud schedule. I wouldn't pick a December game because you never know when it's going to be miserably cold.

As for the Hit List, the only two teams on this schedule I've seen be defeated are the Broncos and Raiders.

Obviously the opener with the first Super Bowl banner ceremony of my lifetime is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Even in a Covid-free world, I doubt I would have gone as tickets would have been crazy expensive. The November opponents are duds. So that really leaves the two in October. And I'm kinda sick of the Patriots, even the Brady-less ones. 

- - -

Taking away the question of attending, what games will be best to watch?

Week 3, MNF at Ravens
Week 4, Patriots
Week 6, TNF at Bills
Week 7 at Mile High
Week 11, SNF at Las Vegas, literally on my birthday
Week 12, at Brady's Bucs
Week 15 at the Superdome, Mahomes vs Brees

So yeah, I just listed the most interesting 7 games, and 6 are road games. 

A perfect screenshot

 

Something I've never done in a Tony Hawk game, do a run that gets perfect scores from every judge. Even got a trophy for it. And the song playing during this run, as shown in the bottom right? The same one used in this video during my brief skateboarding career. 

TB12 TBpick6

 

The NFL Is Back

 So for the history of ever, we've been told that NFL teams need 4 preseason games. The teams that play the Hall of Fame game in Canton, play 5! This year, no team played any preseason games. So I was prepared for lots of missed tackling, muffed punts, etc. But the games played out exactly like any other week one. 

The reason we have preseason is so owners can sell 10 home games at full price instead of 8 on season tickets. Literally, these are your most loyal fans who buy season tickets, and owners love the chance to screw them over for $$$. 

Turns out we don't need any preseason games ever. 

- - -

Things I Was Right About In Week One So I'm Going To Overreact And Claim These Are Already Correct

1. I was real down on the 49ers due to the Super Bowl Hangover effect. Clearly, I am already correct on this one. I predicted Seahawks and Rams to finish ahead of 49ers. 

2. I was right on Saints over Bucs.

3. In the NFC North, I was right on Packers & Bears over Vikings & Lions. 

4. I called Bills as a first place team and Jets as a last place team.

5. My top 4 teams: Chiefs, Ravens, Seahawks, Saints all looked great.

Things I Was Wrong About In Week One So I'm Going To Be Cautious And Wait To See If Things Change

1. I thought Jags were a last place team, but maybe that was just a fluky win. 

2. I thought Cowboys would win their division, but what a bad call, eh?

3. I thought Colts wild be a wild-card team, but...actually Rivers is washed up. That one's on me.

Not That Long Ago

As of January 1, 2016, this was an accurate chart.  

On that day, 4 years and 9 months ago, I had never seen the Chiefs win a playoff game. 

Mahomes comes at you fast. 

Run It Back

I remember being in the bathroom at Buffalo Wild Wings, thinking "what if Mahomes really wasn't as good as I think he is?"

October 1, 2018

The Chiefs were 3-0 but now had to go on the road to Mile High on Monday Night Football. The optimistic Chiefs fans believed we had the next Peyton or Brady. Opposing fans were telling us don't count your MVPs yet. That he'll get figured out once there's tape on him. He doesn't have the footwork. 

And at halftime, the Chiefs were losing. Mahomes seemed pedestrian in the first half. The Broncos were 2-1 and would take first place in the AFC West with a win. 

So I'm in the bathroom at halftime, being forced to possibly face a reality that Mahomes might be the next Trent Green or Alex Smith and not the next championship winning QB. 

And then the world found out our QB has Mahomes Magic. Converts a 3rd down with his left hand. Converts a 2nd and 30. Drives down the field, wins the game, takes first place in the division and never lets it go. 

- - -

Narratives are so fragile. 

On the one hand, you can make the case that a NFL DE should know not to line up offside (Dee Ford) and the Chiefs should have played the Rams in Super Bowl LIII. Now maybe the Rams win that, maybe KC does. But a few inches different and we could be talking about Mahomes going 2/2 for in the Super Bowl. 

On the other hand, you go into 2019 and Mahomes gets injured in that QB sneak in Denver. So easily could have missed the rest of the season. Maybe things get shuffled around and Lamar Jackson wins MVP and Super Bowl MVP and everyone thinks he's the best player in the NFL now. Or maybe the 49ers win the Super Bowl over Titans and people think they are building the next dynasty. 

As it stands, it's incredible that my dumb team now is the face of the NFL. I got to see a banner ceremony. The whole country has been waiting for football since February. The last NFL game was the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl and the next one was the Chiefs starting their Run It Back tour by kicking ass.

I didn't do my usual Chiefs schedule analysis because I didn't know that we'd have an NFL season. 

I didn't pick out any games to go to because I didn't know if fans would be allowed to go. 

All of which is to say, I hadn't looked at the Chiefs schedule all year. 

Best Banner Ever

 

2020 calcutta

A good strategy would have been get one of Ravens/Chiefs without overpaying, then try to get as many lottery tickets in the NFC. One of Saints/Seahawks/Packers, one of Cowboys/Eagles, then some from Rams/Vikings/Bears. 

I went all in on the Chiefs from the first pick, making it hard to rack up teams. I did get Packers at a low price early, but should have made a better attempt to get the Seahawks. In hindsight, instead of buying Colts, I should have nominated the Seahawks much earlier. Either I get them, great, or I know I don't have them, so I could have then made adjustments and gone after Cowboys or Eagles. In the end, I ended up having to choose between Texans and Bills, and went Bills but overpaid because it was the end. 

As usual, I don't like most of Matt's teams. Saints and Texans are good but beyond that...

Mark got great value for the Ravens, solid pickups in Cowboys, Vikings, Titans. I bet he wishes he had spent money earlier on Eagles or Packers instead of waiting to end up with Cardinals. 

Niraj got the Seahawks that I wanted. Patriots was good value, but I think 49ers are an overpay. 

Kirat got the most teams, which is usually a good strategy. I think he overpaid for the Bucs but Rams are nice value and the Chargers at 30 cents is pretty ridiculous. I know I picked them to finish 4th, but some places think they could contend for the division. It sucks when I don't want a team, but also don't think they should go for that low. No one bid on teams like the Chargers, so we could end up spending over 4 bucks on Panthers, Bengals, and Cardinals at the end. 

2020 NFL Preview

 It's Labor Day Weekend so a totally normal NFL season must be around the corner. What's that? There was no preseason? Some teams are going to have no fans and some are barely going to have any? And that's unrelated to the LA Chargers? And the Kansas City Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl Champions? 

Not sure which is the craziest part. 

- - - 

AFC West

It's tough to repeat as Super Bowl winners but KC only got stronger and would be a big disappointment if they didn't win the division. It doesn't seem like Herbert is going to start for the Chargers, so while they have talent, I'm picking the Broncos to finish 2nd here. Raiders will have their moments and while they make sense as a last place team, I'm going to go out on a limb to pick Chargers to fall to last. They'll be good once Herbert is good, but that's not this year. 

AFC North

The Ravens will be out for blood after being the #1 team in the AFC and being one and done in the playoffs. Burrow will lift the Bengals but not enough. I think Big Ben is too old and the Browns will be mediocre too. Ravens 1st, Steelers 2nd, Browns 3rd, Bengals 4th.

AFC East

Brady is gone and so is half their defense. This is the Bills year, right? I mean, sure I'll pick them 1st, but with Patriots close behind. Dolphins 3rd, Jets last. 

AFC South

The Titans made it to the AFC Championship game but I think the Texans put it together this year. Jags last. Titans 3rd. Colts 2nd. Texans 1st.

NFC West

Seattle reminded me that they're going to be good as long as they have Wilson. 49ers hangover will be tough. Rams were good, can they bounce back? Cardinal still probably some years away. Seahawks 1st, Rams 2nd, 49ers 3rd, Cardinals 4th.

NFC North

Seems like I never get this division right. Every time I don't pick the Packers, they win the division. Every time I do, they falter. Whatever. Packers, Vikings and Bears should all be in contention at some point. I'll trust the Bears to get it together. Packers 1st, Bears 2nd, Vikings 3rd. 

NFC East

I still think Washington and Giants are far away. This year, I'll trust Dak and the Cowboys to make Jerry pay over the Eagles and injury prone Wentz. Cowboys 1st, Eagles 2nd, Giants 3rd, Wash 4th. 

NFC South

The Saints have one more ride in them. The Bucs will be spicy, but not enough. Brady is old and he's not in the AFC East anymore. Saints 1st, Bucs 2nd, Falcons 3rd, Panthers 4th.

AFC Playoff Predictions 

1 Chiefs
2 Ravens
3 Texans
4 Bills
5 Patriots
6 Colts

NFC Playoff Predictions

1 Seahawks
2 Saints
3 Packers
4 Cowboys
5 Bucs
6 Rams

Super Bowl LV

Chiefs over Saints

Cool Shot

1. From this angle you can see that the ball just cleared the defender's fingertips. 

2. As it's doing so, .1 on the clock.

3. The massive wall of screens showing exactly what the Celtics didn't have on this play. 

4. The shooter's footwork. A step closer and the shot gets blocked. A step back and he's out of bounds. 

Chiefs Super Bowl Rings

 One of the best ESPN articles they've ever made is 53 Super Bowl rings, 53 stories.

Back in March I tweeted about what should be on the Chiefs LIV ring:

Front should have large KC Arrowhead logo with two Lombardis behind it, World Champions Left side should have MVP Mahomes 15 Right side should honor Andy Reid and 31-20 Inscribed inside should be a reference to 3rd and 15, 7:13

Well, let's see these bad boys:

They nailed it. 

The front is awesome, exactly how I pictured it. 

They got 31-20 on the right. 

They even added a shoutout to Chiefs Kingdom and 142.2 decibels. 

The ring has each recipient's name, which makes sense. Although this means that Reid and Mahomes don't get a callout on every ring. I kinda think those two guys did enough to deserve it. 

On the inside instead of highlight the Super Bowl comeback like I suggested, they highlighted all three playoff comebacks. Nice touch. 

All in all, these are great looking rings, with plenty of symbolism and cool touches.