NFL 17th Game Schedule Formula

The NFL loves parity. Wait, let me start over. 

The NFL loves money above all else. Parity is something that helps their bottom line as every fan base always has reason to hope. On the list of things that the NFL loves, player safety doesn't crack the top 10. 

So we're getting a 17th game. The NFL has already sold the TV rights for the next decade: 10 billion dollars. It makes too much sense for them. 

Despite it being inevitable and adding more football to the calendar, I'm not a fan. Getting a 2,000 yard rushing season or 5,000 yard passing season used to be crazy impressive. Now, that's gone. 

Now we'll have wonky records like 10-7 or 6-11. 

And injuries will only get worse. 

What I would have done is added a bye week. You get an extra week of TV content and increase player rest/safety. 

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At one point it was floated that the NFL could use this to develop inter-conference rivalry games. One of the problems, is that teams keep moving. A few years ago a KC-STL and SF-OAK matchup would have been great. Now that would be KC-LA and SF-LV. Not great. 

If we were going to go that route, here's the best current regional matchups, sorted by best fit:

Jets/Giants
Rams/Chargers
Ravens/Washington

Eagles/Steelers
Bucs/Dolphins
Cowboys/Texans
49ers/Raiders

Lions/Browns
Jags/Falcons
Bears/Colts
Titans/Panthers

Seahawks/Broncos
Vikings/Bills
Packers/Patriots
Chiefs/Cardinals
Saints/Bengals

Some are those are close geographic rivals, some have some history attached, some are similar franchises, and some are what's left. Some are fun, some are duds. 

But that's not what the NFL is doing. 

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The NFL does love parity. And the above is not competitively balanced. What the NFL is doing is adding a third game based on finish the previous year. 

A quick step back. In the 16-game schedule, 14 are a given and known years in advance. Only two games are based on your division finish. Well, now it's going to be three. So a first place finish your division gets you three games the following year against division winners...plus you already play two divisions in full, so 5 of the 7 division winners will be on your schedule. Likewise if you finish in last, you'll get 5 of the division losers on your schedule. 

How about an example. The 2020 Chiefs finished first in their division. 

In 2021, they play the entirety of the AFC North and NFC East. They were already scheduled to play the first place finishers from AFC South and and AFC East. They will now add a game against the first place finisher from the NFC North. 

So their three parity influenced games will be Titans, Bills, Packers. They'll also face Washington and Steelers, two more divisions winners, as part of playing the entirety of those divisions. 

Meanwhile the Lions finished in last. They'll play the last-place Eagles, Falcons and now Broncos, in addition to the entirety of the NFC West and AFC North. 

In 2021, the AFC will host all the newly-scheduled 17th games.
In 2022, the NFC get their turn. 

This means that for playoff races, conference opponents will have the same number of home games. 

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Rotation for Chiefs

2017 - NFC East
2018 - NFC West
2019 - NFC North
2020 - NFC South
2021 - NFC East (17th game from NFC North)
2022 - NFC West (17th game from NFC South)
2023 - NFC North (17th game from NFC East)
2024 - NFC South (17th game from NFC West)

So Chiefs-Packers happened in 2019 and wasn't scheduled to happen until 2023. But now will happen in 2021 and 2023. Likely our first look at Mahomes-Rodgers (since Mahomes was injured in 2019). 

Also means, that if Chiefs and Bucs finish in the same spot in the division, we'll get another chance at Chiefs-Bucs in 2022. (One more shot at Mahomes-Brady?)

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I'm pleased enough with the fact that the home games are all in one conference so that competitive issue is balanced. This will lead to increased parity, making it harder to repeat as division winners and easier to go from 3rd or 4th to winning the division.