Fixing NFL Overtime, Again

So back in 2010, NFL overtimes were sudden death even in the playoffs. You could win the toss. Gain 30-40 yards, kick a field goal and win the game. 

This seemed too easy, creating too much of an advantage for the winner of the coin toss. In 2010, I explored proposals to change the sudden death system.

The NFL made a change that took effect in 2012, that if the first team scored a field goal, the second team would still get a chance. 

This was an improvement and seemed to make things more fair. 

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In the 2018-2019 AFC Championship, the Patriots and Chiefs went to overtime. Patriots won the coin toss, drove the field for a touchdown and won without Mahomes getting to touch the ball. 

In the offseason, the Chiefs proposed a rule change that would ensure both teams get to have a possession. It didn't even have enough support to get a league vote. 

Chiefs fans were told to get over it. Make a stop. 

Three years later, the two best teams in the AFC faced off again in the playoffs. It went to overtime. And the team that won the coin toss got a touchdown and won the game. 

Now, the conversation has shifted. More people are realizing it's not really fair to have such weight on a single coin toss. 

Here's the thing: Modern playoff teams are typically offense-driven. Combined with the fact that defenses are gassed after playing for 60 minutes, it really has shifted the odds heavily in favor of the team that wins the coin toss. 

I've seen two more good points this week that made sense to me: 

1. In baseball, it wouldn't feel right if extra innings ended in the top of the 10th, even if the road team scored 4 runs. 

2. To the "defense is part of the game, make a stop" crowd...the Chiefs defense didn't have to make a stop on Sunday. The Patriots defense didn't have to make a stop 3 years ago. So because of a coin toss, we've shifted the responsibility to half of an NFL team. 

So any proposal should address the weight of the coin toss on a game, and should involve the offense and the defense of both teams in the overtime period. 

Let's look at some proposals and see what makes the most sense. 

Proposal #1: Both teams guaranteed a possession. If still tied, then sudden death. 

This is actually one of my least favorites. If this was in effect two days ago and the Bills tie it up, then we're back to the 2010 rules where all the Chiefs need is a field goal. Offenses and defenses are involved but the coin toss still matters a lot. 

Proposal #2: Play a full 10-minute or 15-minute period. 

I don't love this one either. Forcing players to play 75 minutes is probably too long. 10 minute OT and one team could try to hold the ball and drag the clock out. And you could still be tied after all of this anyways.

Proposal #3: Keep the current rules but remove the coin toss. Home team gets ball. 

This might sound dumb at first, but by removing the coin toss and making it known what happens in advance, it's more fair. The road team can now choose to play for the win. The Bills might have gone for 2 with 13 seconds left if OT was less desirable. At least knowing in advance, you can't complain that the toss didn't go your way. 

Proposal #4: College format from the 40, home team goes 2nd. 

Here we've removed the coin toss and are involving the offenses and the defenses. A defensive stop could win you the game as you don't start in gimme field goal range. We reward higher seeds with byes and homefield already, going 2nd in OT isn't that much more far-fetched. Again, knowing this in advance makes it more fair in regulation.

Proposal #5: College format from the 25, no field goals allowed. 2 point conversions mandatory.

We can still have a coin toss here, but we've removed the advantage of going 2nd. There's no information gained. Both teams have to go for a TD and 2-pt no matter what. It will take offense and defense to win the game.

Proposal #6: Spot and choose, sudden death.

Road team picks the spot where the OT drive starts from, home team picks offense or defense. In Sundays game anything from the 10 and up and I think the Chiefs pick offense. But if the Bills say let's start at the 3 yard line, 97 yards away from a TD, do the Chiefs still pick offense? Adds a lot of strategy. But doesn't really feel like NFL.

Proposal #7: Secret auction, sudden death.

Whoever picks the furthest yard line away gets the ball. The coaches write a number in an envelope. The ref reads it out. If the Bills pick the 12 and the Chiefs pick the 9, the Chiefs start OT on their own 9. Again, very strategic, very unlike normal football.

I basically think 1 and 2 are worse than what we have now, and 3 through 7 are an improvement. I think #5 is the simplest solution that solves the issues and we've seen it play out in college, so we're used to the idea already. (In a way that fans aren't ready for 6 or 7.) So let's go with #5.