Monday, February 20, 2023

Mahomes vs AFC QBS

The AFC is loaded with young talented quarterbacks. 

Let's take a look at how they stack up.  

Here's the competition:

Burrow (3 years, 1 SB appearance, 5-2 in the playoffs)
Allen (5 years, 4-4 in the playoffs)
Lamar (5 years, 1 MVP, 1-3 in the playoffs)
Herbert (3 years, 0-1 in the playoffs)

So far, that's 16 combined years with 1 MVP season, 1 Super Bowl appearance and a 10-10 record in the playoffs. Not bad. The comp for these combined output is Matt Ryan who did win MVP and make a Super Bowl. 


And then there's Mahomes.

(5 years, 2 MVPs, 3 SB appearances, 2 Super Bowl wins, 2 Super Bowl MVPs, 11-3 in the playoffs)


Friday, February 17, 2023

Super Bowl LVII: Advanced Stats

So I noticed something. 

This video shows touchdowns and only touchdowns from all Super Bowls.

In Super Bowl LVII, only looking at touchdowns, the Chiefs scored three in a row. One in the third quarter, two in the fourth.

In Super Bowl LIV, the Chiefs scored three in a row. All in the fourth. 

Based upon this research, I have come to the finding that scoring three second-half touchdowns in a row is a good way to win the Super Bowl.

- - -

Just for fun, I learned that the play that Toney scored on is called Corn Dog because it's a Corner + Drag and that sounds like corn dog.

Also, when the Chiefs try not to score by kneeling before the goal line they call it Church Mode. 

And when the Eagles defense for letting them score is called Olé.
- - -

So here's another good stat. 

The Chiefs have completed 63 seasons of football. The first six were in the pre-Super Bowl era, so I'm just going to ignore them for the purposes of this. 

The Chiefs have played 57 seasons in the Super Bowl era. In that era, they have won 20 playoff games. 

Seasons 1-4: 4 playoff wins
Seasons 5-52: 5 playoff wins
Seasons 53-57: 11 playoff wins

So yeah, 5 seasons of Mahomes and he has 55% of the franchise's playoff wins, more than the previous 52 seasons. 

During the stretch from seasons 5-52, the Chiefs averaged .1 playoff win a year. With Mahomes, they are averaging 2.2. 

- - -

So Mahomes has 11 playoff wins. That's pretty good. Would you believe that he has more than some NFL franchises?

How many franchises do you think?


Eight.

That's 1/4 of the NFL. 

The Arizona Cardinals franchise has played 103 seasons and has 7 playoff wins. 
This kid from Texas Tech has 11 playoff wins in 5 seasons. 

Thursday, February 16, 2023

Super Bowl LVII: Mic'd Up

Always the best video. Been waiting and waiting for it, they just posted it, haven't even watched it yet. 

They won't let me embed it, so here's the link.



Wild stuff in here:


1. The Skyy Moore TD. It's coming on 3rd and goal from the 4. Andy Reid tries to call timeout right before the ball is snapped. This could have gone so wrong. IF they snap the ball as it's being whistled and Philly gets to see the route, then the Chiefs have to switch plays and they burn a timeout. IF that gets stopped then it's 4th and goal from the 4 and we might see a field goal instead of the td. But the reason he tries to call the timeout is because...

2. Chiefs are in the wrong formation. From watching the broadcast and listening to pundit podcasts, you think Reid gets all the credit for being a genius playcaller and dialing everything up perfectly. And then you find out they lined up in the wrong formation, and Reid is trying to call timeout. 

After watching some other clips I figured out what was wrong. Skyy Moore was supposed to be on the right side. Mahomes turns to his right and signals for motion, but Toney is over there. Toney points to the other side of the field. So Mahomes turns to his left, and is like, let's send him in motion from the left then.

Also I love Mahomes making sure that Skyy Moore's TD ball gets saved for him. 

3. Also...a bit of foreshadowing. When the Chiefs take their first lead at 28-27 after the Toney TD, Kelce comes to the sideline and has one message for the offense: More, more, more! What he doesn't realize is that the Chiefs final touchdown was going to be coming from Moore, Moore, Moore.

Wednesday, February 15, 2023

I Was There: Super Bowl LVII Parade

What's wild is that I haven't been to a game since the last parade, so the last post on this tag was the previous parade. Last time I didn't have to label which Super Bowl parade it was, but now I do. 



I parked near The Roasterie and walked straight to KC Live. Was able to sit inside No Other Pub for a bit until I got hungry and set off to look for food. Got some Meshuggah Bagels before finding a spot on Grand for the parade.



Here's my spot, right in front of McFadden's. You can see I was only 1-2 people away from the front railing, which I thought was pretty good considering I got this spot less than an hour before the parade started. Better than my spot for the LIV parade.


Here's Clark Hunt and Andy Reid.


Here's the Lombardi. I think Mark Donovan the President was holding it at this point, so no big loss that his face is blocked by the trophy.


Here's Buttkicker.


Here's Juan Thornhill and Andrew Wylie. It's hard to read but Wylie's shirt says: 0 sacks, put it on a fucking t-shirt!!!!


Here's Chris Jones


Okay, here's Chris Jones a second later. Turns out there is a difference between in front of the railing and 1-2 people away from the railing. 


Here's Khalen Saunders asking for a selfie with me. Or at least that's what it looks like.



So this was the wildest part of the whole day. I hear people start yelling "Juju! Juju!." I can't see him yet, so I'm lifting my phone above my head and trying to see what I can get. And then from out of nowhere, before anyone has a chance to shout out that they see Mahomes, all of a sudden the MVP is right in front of me. 


I snap as many as I can and the one above was the best of that burst. The one below could have been great, but those pesky hands got in the way again.


The next bus has Skyy Moore so I got a nice shot of him.


And then, to my right, I see Patrick Mahomes is coming back! Literally the only guy I saw moving against the flow of the parade all day. He's posing with more people.


He's walking by the railing, standing literally only 4 feet away from me. All the people in my vicinity push forward and stick their hands out trying to get a high-five. I didn't get one, but the fact that it was even a possibility showed how close I actually was to him.


Then he climbed on the bus behind Moore's and passed us again. So I get this cool shot.


Absolutely electric to see the man who is responsible for all of this, that close up. 

It was right around this time that Travis Kelce passed by. I was so focused on the Mahomes photos/handshake that I didn't get a good shot of Kelce, just in case you were wondering.

From there, I had to hightail it on a two-mile walk to get to the rally portion.


I'll be honest. This was kind of a dud for me. The guys didn't say all that much and it's so crowded that you end up watching it on a monitor. Today, the parade really outclassed the rally. 



All the pictures above were taken by me. Below are some supplemental pictures I found online.


Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Legendary

I was just in a meeting, letting my mind wander. 

And I was reflecting on all the quarterbacks that I was jealous of growing up, seeing what they meant to their cities. What Peyton Manning meant to the Colts, or Brett Favre to the Packers. Steve Young to the 49ers, Drew Brees to the Saints or Aaron Rodgers to Packers again.

All of those guys are Hall of Famers. Legends that a whole city rallied around. 

All of them won one Super Bowl for those cities. 

(I'm being careful with my words because Peyton did win a second Super Bowl for Denver, but he made his mark as a Colt. He won 4 NFL MVPs in Indianapolis.)

But yeah, one Super Bowl win for those legends. 

Then there are the quarterbacks like Dan Marino and Jim Kelly (Fouts, Tarkenton, Moon, McNair, McNabb, Cunningham, depending how deep you want to go) that were Pro Bowlers, franchise quarterbacks that never one a single Super Bowl. 

It's hard to win one. Typically a crowning achievement. 

And this kid comes along and wins two rings in five years. 




HC Sportsbook Recap

 Week 1 Bet Recap:

$50 on 49ers PK AND Bills -.5 AND Bengals +3.5 at -110 WIN
$100 on Bills -10.5 LOSS
$100 on Bengals -6.5 WIN

Invested: $250
Outcome: $286.36

Week 2 Bet Recap
$100 on 49ers -4 WIN
$100 on Bengals +5.5 WIN
$50 on Jags +8.5 WIN

Invested: $250
Outcome: $477.27


Week 3 Bets
$100 on Under 46.5 in Eagles/49ers WIN
$50 on all players to score TD: CMC, Chase, Kelce, AJ Brown at +1640 LOSS

Invested: $150
Outcome: $190.91


Super Bowl Bets

$50 on MVP Mahomes +130 WIN
$50 on MVP Hurts +130 LOSS
$150 Mahomes Passing Yards Under 294.5 WIN
$5o on exactly 2 Mahomes passing TDs +230 LOSS
$50 on exactly 3 Mahomes passing TDs +360 WIN


Invested: $350
Outcome: $631.36


I had my best week yet in the Super Bowl. Those odds for Mahomes to throw 2-3 touchdowns seemed way too easy before the game and they seem way too easy in hindsight. My big bet was on under passing yards and it wasn't close. And betting the QB to win MVP is pretty easy money.


FINAL TOTAL
Invested: $1000
Final Balance: $1585.90

Profit: $585.90

Monday, February 13, 2023

RINGS

The Chiefs won Super Bowl IV in January 1970. 

Here was their playoff history over the next 23 years:

LOSS in 1971
LOSS in 1986
LOSS in 1990
WIN, LOSS in 1991
LOSS in 1992
WIN, WIN, LOSS in 1993

So a pretty brutal 20 year stretch of futility building up to a loss in the divisional round and a loss in the conference championship round. (For what it's worth, I have no memories from those three playoff wins.)

Here's the next 20 years:

LOSS in 1994
LOSS in 1995
LOSS in 1997
LOSS in 2003
LOSS in 2006
LOSS in 2010
LOSS in 2013

The 2003 game was the no punt game. The 2013 was the choke up 38-10 where Andrew Luck recovered a fumble and scored. 

In 2015 I got to see the Chiefs win a playoff game for the first time. It was a wild-card win over the Texans starting Brian Hoyer. I acted like it was manna from heaven. The Chiefs would then lose their next three playoff games. I'll spell it out to keep the formatting. 

WIN, LOSS in 2015
LOSS in 2016
LOSS in 2017

The loss in 2017 was to the Titans where Mariota completed a touchdown pass to himself. Mahomes was on the sideline as a rookie. 

To recap, in the stretch from 1971 to 2017, the Chiefs won 4 playoff games. They lost 16. 

4-16 in the playoffs over 46 years. That includes 30 years where they didn't make the playoffs. 

They weren't on the level of Bills Super Bowl heartbreak or Browns/Lions 0-16 futility, but they weren't that much better. 

It was very easy to go on Twitter or Reddit pre-Mahomes and see Raiders and Broncos fans shitting on the Chiefs. And when someone posts how the Chiefs have lost 7 playoff games in a row, or has never won the Lamar Hunt trophy, there's no comeback. It's #facts.

That was the world I was living in. 

And then one dude changed everything. 


As good as Reid is, he didn't turn the tide. Pre-Mahomes, Reid was 1-4 in the playoffs, presiding over the Luck choke and Mariota disaster.

Mahomes is 11-3 in the playoffs. It's so hard for players to amass winning playoff records, because unless you win the Super Bowl you're guaranteed a loss. So even getting a bye, winning the divisional round and losing in the conference championship, which is objectively pretty good, is still not a winning playoff record. 

Mahomes shifted the conversation from playoff wins to Super Bowl rings. 

The Chiefs now own THREE Lombardi Trophies. 

IV
LIV
LVII





They are now tied with the Broncos and Raiders at 3 Super Bowl wins.

The Chiefs have passed the Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Bucs, Ravens and Eagles. 

Still on zero, by the way, the Chargers, Bengals and Bills among others.

As of today, KC is tied for 7th-most rings. Here are the 6 teams that have more than 3 Lombardi Trophies: Patriots, Steelers, Cowboys, 49ers, Packers, Giants

Win one more and you tie the Packers and Giants. And you pass the Broncos and Raiders and rise to the top of the AFC West Super Bowl standings.

And yes, the Chiefs now own the Championship Belt for most recent multiple titles. To lose the belt, the Bucs or Rams would need to win before the Chiefs. Or some other team would need to win two. 

Bonus little nugget: Chiefs are currently 8th on the list of all-time win-loss records. I calculated what 10 seasons of going 12-5 would do to their win percentage. It would rise it from .546 to .570. It's not crazy to think that when Mahomes hangs it up, KC is at or near the top of that list. 

Funny thing, I haven't heard a lot of trash talk from Broncos or Raiders fans. Wonder what happened to them?

Andy Reid: A Mount Rushmore Coach

Let's start here with playoff wins by NFL coaches:


Belichick is the GOAT with 31 playoff wins. 
Andy Reid #2 with 22. 

Landry, Shula, Gibbs and Noll all solid with 16+. 

All six of these guys have 2+ Super Bowls. 


Then you look at total wins. 

Shula, Halas, Belichick top 3. Next year, Andy Reid will pass Tom Landry and move to #4 all time. 


(By the way, George Halas is insane. In the 1920's, Halas was not only the team's coach but also played end—wide receiver on offense, defensive end on defense—and handled ticket sales and the business of running the club. His total wins, plus win-loss record, plus 6 championships, plus the 73-0 game, all extremely impressive. They didn't have playoffs back then to rack up playoff wins or he would have a lot more.)

So if you go by wins, I think it's fair to say Shula, Halas, Belichick, Reid.

If you go by playoff wins, your top four is Belichick, Reid, Landry, Shula.

If you sort these 5 guys by win-loss record, it goes: Halas, Shula, Belichick, Reid, Landry. 

You can make more arguments for Paul Brown or Curly Lambeau, at some point we're splitting hairs and trying to compare completely different eras. 

But the 2nd Super Bowl Ring, plus the wins, plus the playoff wins, plus the win-loss record, no matter how you slice it, Andy Reid is on the Mount Rushmore of NFL Coaches.

One more stat: Games above .500

Reid has 109 more wins than losses. With a winning record next year, he'll pass Paul Brown and be #4 on this list as well. 



Again, the top four does seem to be Shula, Halas, Belichick and Reid, no matter which metric you use. 





The Patrick Mahomes Experience






Mahomes has played 80 career games. He’s only lost 16 times. He’s only lost by more than 1 possession 3 times.



No one ever did all of them one season before. Players like Elway, Montana, Favre, Rodgers haven't checked all of those boxes in their entire careers.

He broke the curse of MVPs not being able to win the Super Bowl since 1999.

He broke the stat that the passing yards leader had never won the Super Bowl. 







Active QBs with most SB appearances: Mahomes has the most with 3

Active QBS with most SB wins: Mahomes has the most with 2






To win Super Bowl LVII, he had to be perfect in the 2nd half. 
Touchdown. 
Touchdown.
Touchdown.
Intentionally stopped at the 1 to kick the game-winning field goal. 
He was.

No interceptions or fumbles all game. 



With Patrick Mahomes as your starter, 60% chance of going to the Super Bowl. 
With Patrick Mahomes as your starter, 40% chance of winning the Super Bowl. 

The two seasons where Mahomes didn't go to the Super Bowl:
They go in 2018 if Dee Ford doesn't line up offsides. That AFC Championship went to overtime.
In 2021, they were up 11 at halftime in the AFC Championship and it went to overtime. 
Even when he's not there, he's pretty damn close. 




(Sometimes you have to do your own research, and find your own stats.)


- - -


I lived through this era of Chiefs quarterbacks:


We drafted Brodie Croyle in the third round and he never won a game for us. I've seen the nadir. Now I've seen the apex.



- - -


The Seahawks allegedly made a blueprint. Get a good rookie qb and surround them with talent, especially on the defensive side. We've seen teams like the 49ers, Eagles and Bengals have success following that blueprint. But it hasn't led to any titles yet. 


So maybe the best plan is the old plan. Have the best damn quarterback in the league. 


Super Bowl LVII Champions

Winning Super Bowl LIV changed my life. I'm serious. It took me from a place of bitter jealousy and feeling left out to a place of gratitude. I didn't do anything to deserve it, but it gave me real peace in an area of my life that I deeply care about. 

I only ever wanted one. When the Patriots were reeling off SB win #5 or #6, it never occurred to me to dream for more than one. 

If the NFL had gone bankrupt after Super Bowl LIV, I would have been so content to say we got our trophy and parade and now we can all go do something else, like watch movies and play chess. 

But the NFL didn't close up shop. Time marches on. The Chiefs went back to Super Bowl LV and got blown out. I got to know what it feels like to lose in the Super Bowl. And it sucks. 

And then you're on the verge of going back to another Super Bowl and your team chokes away a big second half lead at home to the Bengals. And it sucks.

And then you see and hear things from all these different places.

Keenan Allen says that losing Tyreek is going to expose Mahomes. 
The media starts saying that Josh Allen is better than Mahomes.
The narrative becomes that Burrow always beats Mahomes.
A Bills fan says that "There isn't a fanbase more uninvited to a party but still shows up than Chiefs Kingdom."

My reaction was at first, we already got a trophy! We won it all. You can't keep doubting us. But that only works for so long. Then it becomes a point of pride. You want to shut them up again. You want to beat everyone again. 

You still care.

And it still sucks to lose in the playoffs. It still sucks to lose in the Super Bowl. 

So you get dressed up, make all the food, tune in. And everyone is picking the Eagles.



And within a few minutes the Eagles just went 75 yards and took a 7-0 lead. 

Now there's a pit in your stomach. A headache will arrive in the 4th quarter. You're so nervous that your back starts to hurt.

Even with everything you've ever dreamed of already hanging on your wall (LIV posters) on in your closet (LIV shirts), it feels like you've gotta win this one too. So now there's a football game to watch and a new trophy to play for. 



The Eagles bulldozed their way down the field on their opening drive. 

The Chiefs answered right back. Didn't even face a third down. And a beautiful throw to Kelce for the score. 

Two drives. 75 yards of offense for both teams. 7-7. Had all the makings of a shootout where no one could get a stop.

And then the Chiefs got a stop. An offensive pass interference call backed up the Eagles and they punted 3 and out.

Chiefs roll down and face the first true decision of the game. 4th and 3 from the Eagles 24. Even if you get 5 yards, you could easily end up kicking a field goal in a few plays. I think kicking to take the lead on a run-dominant team is a good call. Butker doinks it from 42.

Still tied. 

That doink, plus Frank Clark offside on 3rd and 4, leads to a A.J. Brown deep shot and the Eagles scored quickly. 

Chiefs go 3 and out and Eagles have the momentum. 

They're driving down the field and threatening to make it 21-7. 

But then Nick Bolton makes an incredible play. Hurts is running with the ball until he's not, and all of a sudden Nick Bolton picks it up and is running into a golden end zone.

My memory was that it was an unforced error from Hurts dropping the ball, but I just watched the replay. Nick Bolton is one on one with Hurts. Bolton goes to wrap him up and Hurts tries to juke. As Hurts is juking the ball slips out. Bolton goes from wrapping him up, to pushing him down and scooping up the ball. 

14-14. There is nothing more exciting then a defensive touchdown because it's both so unexpected, and you know that no one can catch him so you're free to celebrate early.

If you thought the Chiefs stole the momentum in that moment, you forgot to mention it to the Eagles. They bully their way down the field. They convert TWO fourth down conversions, 4th and 5, 4th and 2. It's now 21-14 with 2:20 to go in the first half. Mahomes has a chance to tie it up. 

Instead, disaster. 

On 3rd and 15, Mahomes is forced out of the pocket and is tackled by the ankle. Reaggravates his ankle injury. Comes up hobbling.


At this point, the Eagles seemed dominant, particularly on defense. Chiefs had only scored on 1 of 4 possessions. Meanwhile, the Eagles offense had been aggressive when the Chiefs were conservative. 

KC has to punt it away AND Mahomes looks seriously hurt. Henne starts warming up. 

The Eagles execute the two-minute drive and add a field goal. 

Halftime: Eagles 24, Chiefs 14.

My pregame prediction was Chiefs 27, Eagles 24. So all KC has to do is shut them out in the second half. No worries. 

- - -

Receiving the 2nd half kickoff down ten, I knew the Chiefs had to be perfect from here on out. TDs not field goals. 

The Chiefs drive down the field with small plays and a 14 yard Mahomes scramble. We saw how much pain he was in right before halftime. I'm guessing the long Rihanna halftime show helped him with pain management.

But you still need a stop. 

The Eagles roll into a 17 play drive over 60 yards, tied for longest in terms of plays in SB history. It started with what was almost Nick Bolton's second defensive TD—it was ruled that way on the field. But replay determined the Eagle didn't have possession long enough for it to be a catch. The Eagles convert 3rd and 6, 3rd and 2, 3rd and 14, and 4th and 1 on the same drive.

After wisely taking a delay of game to hold on to a timeout, the Eagles do end up burning one of their 2nd half timeouts on this drive. It might be important. 

It's the 4th quarter and the Eagles are up 6. 

Juju is making tough catches. Pacheco is exploding up the middle. 

3rd and 3 at the Eagles 5 yard line. Chiefs have a chance to take the lead.

Here's the formation when the ball is snapped. Toney is in motion, man coverage. His defender, #2 is running with him.


One second later, Mahomes is ready to release the ball. Toney has put on the brakes and is heading toward the pylon. #2 in green has not gotten the memo, has continued to almost the hashmarks. 


When Toney catches the ball, it's a literal walk in.






Here's the Jaguars clip that Bieniemy played for the team, leading to this Toney TD. I love seeing this kind of stuff. 

Chiefs 28 - Eagles 27. 

This could so easily come down to who has the ball last. You need a stop and you haven't gotten one yet.

It's 3rd and 3 even if Fox is showing that it's 3rd and 2. 


Willie Gay comes on a blitz and forces Hurts out of the pocket retreating all the way to his own 15, 17 yards behind the line of scrimmage before throwing it away.


Eagles face a 4th and 3 from their 32. They are 2 for 2 on 4th down so far. 

They decide to punt.

Kadarius Toney, fresh off of scoring a touchdown, rips off the longest punt return in Super Bowl history. 65 yards. It's a thing of beauty. 

On 3rd and goal from the 4, KC runs the same play that worked for Toney, this time with Skyy Moore. Motion in, spin and release back to same corner you started. Defender is lost in the middle. Wide open score. 

It's now 34-27, pending the XP. I desperately want Andy to go for two. Make it a 9-point game with 9 minutes to go. 

But he doesn't. 35-27. 

The Eagles do a slow plodding drive until they unleash a bomb. They score. And get the two-point conversion. 35-35.

I'm staring at the score and getting flashbacks to the Illinois-UNC title game when it was 70-70 in the final minutes. I know this is going to go one way or the other real soon. I'll remember this moment as either how close it was, or the game winning drive. 

5:15 seconds to glory. 

Mahomes to Juju for a first down.
Big Pacheco run on 3rd down for a first down.

Chiefs snap the ball from the Eagles 43 on 1st and 10. 

Mahomes takes a 10-yard drop. From here anything is possible. He could complete a pass to get the Chiefs in field goal range. He could throw an interception. 


But the guy on a busted ankle decided to take off. From his own 47 to the Eagles 17. He ran up the middle officially for 26, but was running for 36 yards. Doesn't slide. Gets as many yards as he can before getting tackled. Comes up in pain. But he knows it was worth it.

It was an amazing Super Bowl for 58 minutes. And then just when it looked like Eagles had gotten their first 2nd half stop on the Chiefs, the refs throw a ticky-tack penalty for defensive holding. Easily could have gone uncalled. But they called it. 

Even after the penalty, there was too much time to run the clock out. If only the Eagles had one more timeout, they could have had a full minute. Would have changed everything. Burning that timeout in the 3rd quarter cost them big.

So Chiefs get to run out the clock and set up for a game winning field goal. And the announcers are doing everything to jinx it. Talking about the doink earlier. Talking about the slippery field. 

But Harrison delivered. 38-35. And there's only 8 seconds left. 

Hurts ends up slipping on the hail mary attempt but they were 65 yards away. 

An anti-climatic end to a great game. But a win is a freaking win.






Cue the Gatorade.



Cue the freaking red and gold confetti.







Cue the MVP presentation.





Mahomes gets the MVP, and he is. Andy Reid gets credited with being an offensive genius, and he is. But Bieniemy installed the play that worked twice inside the 5.

- - -

The first one changed my life. This one did not. 

True story. Nothing can compare to that first one. It was climbing a mountain. Getting back to the same summit is great, but not as amazing as the first time.

As for all the opposing fans, haters, trolls, whatever...I guess I should ignore them. I guess I should block everything they say out. 

Well, it will be easier now with two Super Bowl rings in four years. I can put one in each ear.