2024 NFL Preview

Here's a quick timeline.

I started this blog in 2005. 

In January 2016, I saw the Chiefs win a playoff game for the first time.

In January 2020, I saw the Chiefs go to the Super Bowl for the first time. 

The Chiefs have been in 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls, winning three. 

Before Pat Mahomes became a starter in August 2018, Chiefs were synonymous with playoff failures. 

Now they're going for history, a chance to become the first team to win three Super Bowls in a row. 

Last year I predicted 49ers and Chiefs would meet in Super Bowl 58. And they did. Neat.

AFC West

We start with the two-time defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. We're nearing the end of Kelce's run. And what a run it's been. Despite winning two Super Bowls in a row, the Chiefs have been able to keep the roster intact and keep drafting well. 

Last year the Chargers had Justin Herbert entering his 4th year. Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack. This was a team predicted to go 11-6. They went 5-12, finishing last in the division. So they cleaned house. Brought in Michigan Man Jim Harbaugh and shipped out Ekeler and Allen. Their offense is a real Who's That? The question becomes how much of a positive impact can Harbaugh have in one season?

Year Two of Sean Payton coaching the Broncos. Russell Wilson is out, rookie Bo Nix in. Nix! Williams! Sutton! Mims Jr.! Exactly the kind of players you want to take in the 12th round of your fantasy draft. 8-9 last year and now will face the growing pains of having a rookie QB. 

Jimmy G, once the most prized backup QB in the league, was the Raiders starter in 2023. He's now returned to the role of backup and the Raiders are instead going with, checks notes, Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew. Haven't seen a QB battle this intense since JaMarcus Russell vs Game Film.

QB Rankings

Mahomes

Herbert

Nix

Minshew

Division Finish

Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders

AFC East

Last year the Bills and Dolphins both finished 11-6, the Jets went 7-10 with no QB, and the Pats went 4-13. 

The Pats drafted their QB of the future Drake Maye, but as well all know, Drake is not like us. He's losing a training camp battle with Jacoby Brissett. Now the Pats are trading away good players. Looks like another 4th place finish.

Last year, the Aaron Rodgers hope train got derailed leaving the station. But now that he's 40 and recovering from an injury, I'm sure things will go better than when he was 39 and healthy. The fact that the Jets still went 7-10 without him shows they've got talent and fight, so they'll be in the hunt as long as their QB stays upright.

Speaking of banking everything on an injury-prone QB, the Miami Dolphins. Speed kills and they've got it. A great team in September and October, but once the weather drops, they lose their magic. Should be good for 9 or 10 wins, but it's hard to see why they'd be better than last year. 

And then there's Buffalo. Their window isn't all the way shut, but it's been closing for a little while. Tre White is gone. Diggs is gone. Milano is hurt again. It's the Josh Allen show again but this time without any receivers. Allen is good enough that 11+ wins won't surprise me, but also feels like they're due for a year of 8 or 9 wins.

Three good but not great teams and one dogshit.

I don't like the vibes in Buffalo, I don't believe in Miami in December, and I'm not convinced Rodgers will be healthy all year. 

This is so tough. Buffalo seems like a 2nd place team. I was about to put my trust in Rodgers but then I remembered they're the Jets. 

QB Rankings

Allen

Tua

Rodgers

Brissett/Maye

Division Finish

Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Pats

AFC South

Stroud stepped on to the scene and surpassed Lawrence as best QB in the division in his rookie year. 

Richardson hasn't proven he can stay healthy. Tremendous talent, but I need to see him avoid hits before I take the Colts seriously. 

The Texans have re-loaded and should be good. Colts could be good if Richardson stays on the field, and we're still waiting for Lawrence to prove he can be a top5 QB. 

Titans are a rag-tag roster, and I like Levis ok, but I can't pick the worst QB in the division to be a division contender. 

QB Rankings

Stroud

Lawrence

Richardson

Levis

Division Finish

Texans, Jags, Colts, Titans

AFC North

Is Burrow healthy? Unfortunately for them, this is really the last year of their best Super Bowl window. They'll pay Burrow and Chase which you have to do, but it's going to limit the amount of great players you can start around them. 

Is Lamar overrated? I mean, he still sucks in the playoffs. Last year was his sixth year and the first time he's started 16 games. Cool MVP trophies bro. 

I'm one of the few people who thinks that Justin Fields is a good QB, and I think the Steelers will be better off the sooner they start him. 

And then there's the Browns. Watson sucks. Chubb's leg exploded. They finished 11-6 last year but on the back of Joe Flacco. 

All of these teams were good last year, but someone's got to fall off. The class of this division is still Ravens and Bengals. If Burrow was fully healthy, I might pick them to win the division, but I'm not convinced. 

QB Rankings

Burrow (if he's healthy but he's not)

Lamar 

Fields

Watson

Division Finish

Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Browns

AFC Playoff Picks

1 Chiefs

2 Texans

3 Ravens

4 Dolphins

5 Jaguars

6 Bills

7 Bengals

NFC North

Now this is a division. The Lions won the division by 3 games last year. They won a playoff game. And they were up 24-7 in the NFC Championship game. 

Now the Detroit Lions have real expectations. So of course everything will go off without a hitch!

Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears have done something we've really never seen. They went 7-10 and added the best QB in the draft, and he seems like the real deal. Plus they reloaded with talent around Williams. 

I know people compare him to Mahomes a lot already, but Mahomes joined a good Chiefs teams. That might be the most important comparison.

So I might be eating some crow this year. In January 8, I published this list of QB rankings/tiers and I had Jordan Love as the 19th best QB in the league, behind Justin Fields, same tier. 

Love got a $220M contract and Fields is now the backup on the Steelers. 

So was I way low on Love? Is he a top 10 QB and going to lead the Packers to the playoffs? Should I double down on my Love is mid take or should I course correct and get on the right side of history?

Oooof. The Vikings have an all-time great receiver in his PRIME and they've got Sam Darnold dicking around back there. Easy 4th place here.

Packers/Lions/Bears are all good teams and it will get decided by injuries and how good Williams actually can be this year. 

QB Rankings

Love (going out and winning that playoff game showed me I had him too low previously)

Williams (he hasn't earned this yet, but I'm willing to believe)

Goff (he's good!)

Darnold (he's bad!)

Division Finish

Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings

NFC South

Panthers are dog shit. 

Falcons are all in, have a ton of talent, and got rid of their shitty coaches. I took them last year and was fooled. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.

The Bucs are frisky even though I never think they'll be good and the Saints are mid.

Goff is better than all these guys.

QB Rankings

Cousins

Mayfield

Carr

Bryce

Division Finish

Falcons, Bucs, Saints, Panthers

NFC West

In 2019, the 49ers went 13-3 and lost in the Super Bowl to the Chiefs. The following year, they finished last in their division, going 6-10.

In 2023, the 49ers went 12-5 and lost in the Super Bowl to the Chiefs. Let's come back to this.

The Rams don't have Aaron Donald. But they do have Puka and Cooper.

The Seahawks are just kinda blah. 

And the Cardinals should be better with a healthy Kyler, but what's their ceiling.

The 49ers still seem like the best team, but that Super Bowl Loss Hangover is going to bring them back to earth a bit. Feels like these could 4 teams that all finish around 8-9. But I can't put the 49ers winning the division after losing the Super Bowl.

QB Rankings

Purdy

Stafford

Kyler

Geno

Division Finish

Rams, 49ers, Cardinals, Seahawks

NFC East

The Cowboys are so interesting because they're always good in the regular season and they're always such shit in the playoffs. So let's just lock that in one more time.

The Eagles are the year after the Super Bowl Hangover. My Hurts stock looks great but is still undervalued by the rest of the world. 

Commanders will have a spark but the obvious growing pains of a rookie qb.

And the Giants will be shit. In contention for worst team in the league!

QB Rankings

Hurts

Dak

Daniels

Dimes

Division Finish

Eagles, Cowboys, Commanders, Giants

NFC Playoff Picks

1 Eagles

2 Bears

3 Falcons

4 Rams

5 Lions

6 Cowboys

7 Packers

Yep, I've got the 49ers missing the playoffs. I think the Bears/Lions/Packers are all playoff teams. Seeing this made me rethink if I should have the 49ers winning their division, but what the hell, let's go for it. 

Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans:

Chiefs over Eagles

I was this close to saying Chiefs over Bears, but let's not get nuts.

Quick Ironman Draft Thoughts

Once again, Mark and I drafted players for our Ironman league where there are no players added throughout the year. Here's my team:

And here's Mark's team:

I took Bijan #1, then Wilson/Kupp, then McBride/Aubrey. 

At this point Mark jumps in and takes Rashee Rice which had been on my big board for weeks. I didn't think Mark would take him. Partly I was doubting Rice because the Chiefs had just signed Juju. But I think Rice has a great year and I feel pretty stupid for not grabbing him earlier. But we'll see. 

That was the only player on Mark's team that was on my final list to draft. 

I actually had Olave/Rice on my board but didn't love Olave, so I ended up pivoting to Collins and Christian Watson. We'll see if that was a big swing. 

Other players that Mark took that I considered but eventually passed on: AmonRa, LaPorta, Achane, Taysom Hill. 

Other players I considered but eventually passed on: Derrick Henry, Kincaid, AJ Brown, Tank Dell, Tony Pollard, Hollywood Brown if he hadn't gotten hurt. 

We'll see. It's a long season.

Mark Fever 2024

Mark Fever at the same time as Olympic Fever? This could get dangerous.

Our St. Louis adventure began with me picking up Mark and going to Hotshots (Webster Grove area) for wings, burger, and beers.

We played some darts, starting with a game of cricket.

This was a particularly nice round of mine. It was pretty tight, as soon as one of us would close a number to open up the scoring, the other person would come in and close it off for good. I just closed (opened?) 19 so I could start scoring on it, when he comes in with a triple 19 and closes it for good.

But I had a decent lead throughout and it was never really in question. Sally for the win.

Then we played 301 and Mark had some chances to win, it came down to the final double-out and I got mine first. 

From there we headed to Puttshack for some high-tech mini golf.

Mark took an early lead, then I stormed back with a bank shot hole in one.

Heading into the last hole, I was up 20, but botched my shot and only got 30 pts.

Here's mark, down 50, about to take his final shot.

And he actually hits the yellow 50. So we tied.

We look up and there's a fun animation revealing the winner as:

No explanation of why my 385 is better than Mark's 385, but I did have more holes in one, so that must be the tiebreaker.

Pretty bananas. Mark definitely had a right to be pissed.

We stayed at Puttshack for some drinks and to have our Fantasy Football Owner's Meeting. This was the main event and it lived up to top billing.

The next morning, Mark and I went back to Unger Park for a rematch of the 18-0 skins game from 2021.

One nice feature was many holes now had disc charging stations:

Thru the front 9, I was up 5-4. I think it was the 7th where there was a Mando (mandatory) to go right of a tree, and after three shots I still went left of it. So I lost that one pretty handily. 

Unfortunately for Mark, no more Mandos on the back 9. I clinched the match on the 15th hole, up 10-5. We tied the last three, so 10-5 was the final. Mark definitely redeemed himself from the 18-0 game, credit where credit is due.

After disc golf, I had lunch with Mark's whole family at Fitz's. And now I know the secret to parenting: one water with ice, one without.

A great trip. Mark traveled 10000km to be here and I only had to travel 400.