Week 8: Undefeated

If you watched a single Chiefs game by itself with no context, you might think this team should finish 9-8. 

If you watched a single Chiefs game and throw in the context of Mahomes and Reid, Spags, the track record that includes younger players getting better as the year goes along, you might think this team feels like a 12-5 team. 

Right now they're 7-0. Every other AFC team has two losses. 

Next up they get a Bucs team without Godwin and Evans. After that it's Nix vs Mahomes in Arrowhead. Feels like Chiefs will be 9-0 when they go to Buffalo.

Bills should be 8-2 so it's a big game...but even if Buffalo wins, they'll be 9-2 and Chiefs should be 9-1. 

Bills have four in a row of Chiefs-49ers-Rams-Lions. Tough. 

So even though this Chiefs team doesn't look very good any given Sunday, I still think they're going to get the #1 seed. 

(They're not going to go undefeated and I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped a few games they should win, but still feels like they're on pace for 14-3 and the top spot.)

At this point, it's all about getting ready to play your best football in January and February. What a world to be in.

DHop to the Chiefs

I know everyone is supposed to have big hot takes these days, but I think this is pretty simple. 

We needed receivers and we got a good one. Past his prime, but only 3 years removed from being recognized as a top 10 player in the league. Three years ago I had him as the best WR in the game.

Always liked the guy and now he's going to be wearing red and gold, trying to do something historic:

Hoagie Central from February 2024:

Week 7: Byes Matter

The league added a 7th playoff team in each conference starting in the 2021 playoffs. 

Here are the Super Bowl teams by seed:

2021: AFC 1-seed, NFC 5-seed

2022: AFC 4-seed, NFC 4-seed

2023: AFC 1-seed, NFC 1-seed

2024: AFC 3-seed, NFC 1-seed

In this new era, here are your odds of going to the Super Bowl based on 4 years of data:

1-seed: 50%

2-seed: 0%

3-seed: 13%

4-seed: 25%

5-seed: 13%

6-seed: 0%

7-seed: 0%

Now some of this is noise and some of this is small-sample size. 

Some of this is more easily explained by narratives. 

But the fact remains that the 1-seed is far more valuable than it was in the 6-teams per conference era, and the 2-seed is far less valuable. 

- - -

Through 7 weeks, the teams sitting in the 1-seed spot are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions.

- - -

Ravens are now on a 5-game winning streak. Only 3 teams have a better record. That 0-2 start is a distant memory, and yet like some distant memories, it could easily haunt them if they don't get the 1-seed. The loss to the Raiders is ridiculous. 

The inevitable Jayden Daniels injury has arrived and now he's week-to-week. His absence threatens to derail the best turnaround story in the NFL.

Steelers swap the 4-2 Fields for the 1-0 Russ. I want to go on the record now, that everyone is praising the move because they beat up on the Jets, but I would have kept starting Fields and I don't think Russ will continue to impress.

The Saints fell off hard. The Panthers are awful. And now the Bucs receivers are injured. Maybe Simmons will hit his under 30 wins bet.

Key injuries are happening all over the place. The Texans need Nico Collins back.

Everyone acts like the Eagles suck, but I still think they're good. (shrug)

My hot take that the 49ers would miss the playoffs is looking pretty good so far.

The Bills have the easiest division I've ever seen.

- - -

Let's take a look at the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Texans

Likely In: Steelers

Up In The Air: Colts, Broncos, Chargers, Bengals

Likely Out: Dolphins

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets

NFC

In: Vikings, Lions

Likely In: Packers

Up In The Air: 10 teams

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints

The AFC feels very settled with four strong division leaders and 6 truly awful teams. 

Meanwhile, the NFC is very wide open. If Jayden was healthy I'd have the Commanders as In but he's not. And even the Rams could go on a run if they get healthy. All the good teams are in one division. So weird.

Ranked Illinois Beats Ranked Michigan

And look good doing it.

Week 6 Bye Week

New Found Glory: Album Tierlist

I did this for Alkaline Trio back in February, and I found it helpful and enjoyable to re-listen and sort things out in my mind.

Let's look at this chronologically:

Nothing Gold Can Stay (1999) ★★★★★

New Found Glory (2000) ★★★★★

Sticks and Stones (2002) ★★★★★

Catalyst (2004) ★★★★★

Coming Home (2006) ★★★★★

Not Without a Fight (2009) ★★★½

Radiosurgery (2011) ★★★★½

Resurrection (2014) ★★★★½

Makes Me Sick (2017) ★★★★

Forever + Ever x Infinity (2020) ★★★★½

Make the Most of It (2023) ★★★★

Their first five albums were all five stars and they haven't returned to that level since 2006, but honestly 4.5 star albums in 2011, 2014 and 2020 is still great and nothing to complain about. They've experimented with different styles and still managed to be very consistent in quality. 

breaking

I have been appointed the Head Coach of the Hoagie Central Hockey Club.

Dave Fymbo, HC HC HC.

easy money?

There are two 5-0 teams, one in the AFC and one in the NFC. 

Would would happen if you put $100 on each one to make it to the Super Bowl?

Chiefs +220

Vikings +550

Derek Carr Update

One of my favorite bits of all time is this one:

Week 5 Proving Ground

So here's a snippet of something:

That's from October 2023.

Let's keep that in mind. The Bills looked dominant in weeks 1-3, then went to Baltimore and have looked like shit since then. They're 3-2 and just don't seem like a contender at the moment. 

Congrats on blowing out the Jaguars, but now they have losses to the Ravens and Texans. They're sitting as a 4-seed in the playoff race and are lucky they play in the AFC East. 

- - -

The 49ers are 2-3 and having a season from hell? Who could have seen that coming?

- - - 

Let's check in on the worst teams in the league. 

I expected the Panthers and Giants to make this a race to the bottom. 

The Panthers are sitting at the bottom of the league, as expected with a 1-4 record. But they have some company. 

The Patriots, Browns, Titans, Jaguars all make sense. The injured Rams are there. And so are the team to beat in the AFC, the Bengals.

By points scored, the Bengals are 4th in the league!

By points allowed, the Bengals are 31st in the league!

They have a point differential of -5 with a 1-4 record. Really impressive to lose that many close games with a top-5 offense. 

I hope they start winning a few games to at least move out of a top 5 draft slot.

- - -

Only 6 teams in the AFC have a winning record after week 5. That's kind of nuts.

Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, Bills are your division leaders. Then you've got Steelers and Broncos. Current 7 seed is the 2-2 Chargers.

Then you've got Jets, Raiders, Dolphins, Colts at 2-3. 

Then 5 teams at 1-4.

Meanwhile in the NFC, there are 9 teams with a winning record and the Saints could make it 10 tonight.

Only 2 teams at 1-4 in the NFC. 

song of the year

holy shit, is it 5785 already?

This is the perfect hoodie to wear when you're getting blown.

Assuming that you are a shofar.