Week 7: Byes Matter

The league added a 7th playoff team in each conference starting in the 2021 playoffs. 

Here are the Super Bowl teams by seed:

2021: AFC 1-seed, NFC 5-seed

2022: AFC 4-seed, NFC 4-seed

2023: AFC 1-seed, NFC 1-seed

2024: AFC 3-seed, NFC 1-seed

In this new era, here are your odds of going to the Super Bowl based on 4 years of data:

1-seed: 50%

2-seed: 0%

3-seed: 13%

4-seed: 25%

5-seed: 13%

6-seed: 0%

7-seed: 0%

Now some of this is noise and some of this is small-sample size. 

Some of this is more easily explained by narratives. 

But the fact remains that the 1-seed is far more valuable than it was in the 6-teams per conference era, and the 2-seed is far less valuable. 

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Through 7 weeks, the teams sitting in the 1-seed spot are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions.

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Ravens are now on a 5-game winning streak. Only 3 teams have a better record. That 0-2 start is a distant memory, and yet like some distant memories, it could easily haunt them if they don't get the 1-seed. The loss to the Raiders is ridiculous. 

The inevitable Jayden Daniels injury has arrived and now he's week-to-week. His absence threatens to derail the best turnaround story in the NFL.

Steelers swap the 4-2 Fields for the 1-0 Russ. I want to go on the record now, that everyone is praising the move because they beat up on the Jets, but I would have kept starting Fields and I don't think Russ will continue to impress.

The Saints fell off hard. The Panthers are awful. And now the Bucs receivers are injured. Maybe Simmons will hit his under 30 wins bet.

Key injuries are happening all over the place. The Texans need Nico Collins back.

Everyone acts like the Eagles suck, but I still think they're good. (shrug)

My hot take that the 49ers would miss the playoffs is looking pretty good so far.

The Bills have the easiest division I've ever seen.

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Let's take a look at the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Texans

Likely In: Steelers

Up In The Air: Colts, Broncos, Chargers, Bengals

Likely Out: Dolphins

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets

NFC

In: Vikings, Lions

Likely In: Packers

Up In The Air: 10 teams

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints

The AFC feels very settled with four strong division leaders and 6 truly awful teams. 

Meanwhile, the NFC is very wide open. If Jayden was healthy I'd have the Commanders as In but he's not. And even the Rams could go on a run if they get healthy. All the good teams are in one division. So weird.