Come Novmber 6th, Mr. Romney or Mr. Obama will need 270 electoral votes to become President.
The New York Times currently has the number of projected solid/leaning to Obama at 237.
Solid/leaning Romney is 206.
To double check how "solid" the leaning numbers are, here are the 5 leaning Obama states and their current chances of winning, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Maine 99%
New Mexico 97%
Minnesota 96%
Michigan 95%
Pennsylvania 92%
So there you go...those are the "leaning" states. So starting with numbers of 237 and 206 seems pretty safe.
Which means, these are the only states that matter for the 2012 election, listed with electoral votes:
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
That's it. Eight states. 95 tossup electoral votes. And Romney needs 64.
In other words, he can only lose 31 of these votes.
So if he loses Florida, he needs to sweep the rest.
If he loses Ohio and Virginia, he can still win with the other 6.
If he gets the 4 biggest states that's enough.
So let's take a look at these 8 states right now.
Florida
Currently 538 has projected Obama has a 63% chance of winning Florida. But that's just 1.8 points of polling. So it's close. But I'm sure Romney wishes he was up 1.8 instead of down 1.8.
Ohio
Obama up 3.1 points for a 72% chance of winning.
Virginia
Obama up 3 points for a 73% chance of winning.
Wisconsin
Obama up 4.9, 81%.
Colorado
Obama up 3.4, 72%.
Iowa
Obama up 3.6, 72%.
Nevada
Obama up 5.2, 82%.
New Hampshire
Obama up 6.4, 83%.
To sum up: in the 8 battleground states, Obama is up (reasonably) comfortably in all of them.
Assumption #1: Romney will not be able to win all 7 states except for Florida, which means he needs to win Florida. So on election night, if a network calls Florida for Obama, the election is over.
Assumption #2: Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire are large leads, and could almost be already in Obama's category. That puts Obama at 257, needing just one of Florida-Ohio-Virginia or the Colorado-Iowa combo.
Assumption #3: For Romney to flip about 5-6 points across all battleground states, he's going to need a semi-miracle. Either a trouncing in all the debates that exposes a severe Obama weakness or some sort of tragic economic news that shoots a hole in Obama's recovery rhetoric. Or just start handing out cash in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. Cause Romney needs them all.
Friday, September 07, 2012
Wednesday, September 05, 2012
Ranking Levels from THPS 1 and 2
First a quick runthrough:
THPS1
Warehouse
School
Mall
Chicago (competition level)
Minneapolis
Phoenix
Portland (competition level)
San Francisco
Roswell (competition level)
THPS2
Hangar
School II
Marseille (competition level)
New York City
Venice Beach
Skatestreet (competition level)
Philly
Bullring (competition level)
Skate Heaven (bonus level)
Chopper Drop (bonus level)
19. Chopper Drop
Too small to really even be a level.
18. Skatestreet
The competition levels are boring. I like the wires and secret area, but still it's all plywood.
17. Portland
Another competition level. Not much to look at.
16. Marseille
See above. Just a bunch of bowls. Secret area helps.
15. School
Not a bad level, but School II hurts this ranking.
14. Roswell
Because it was the last level of the first game, I don't think I played it enough for it to really make it's mark on me.
13. Chicago
A competition level but I appreciated the railings in the ceiling as a way to continue a grab trick in the pre-manual era.
12. Minneapolis
Cool secret tape area.
11. Skate Heaven
A wacky level that was fun to play, but hard to take serious.
10. Phoenix
A really interesting level that adds great variety.
9. Philly
I like the city levels, but this one doesn't have a ton going for it.
8. Bullring
Cool concept, good pipes.
7. Warehouse
The first level ever. This is classic. Still a good place to hang out.
6. Hangar
Takes the warehouse to the next level with two secret areas and a helicopter that lifts off.
5. Mall
Even though I think the sandbox levels have more replayability, this one is undeniably fun.
4. New York City
My favorite spot in the entire game is a just jumping across a simple staircase on an angle in the back part of the city. The subway cars and taxis give this one a cool factor.
3. San Francisco
Super awesome secret tape area. Wide open city.
2. Venice Beach
A ton to like here. All the different ramps and gaps with plenty of areas to be street or vert and a cool secret tape off the roof.
1. School II
What do you want in a level? How about starting with a huge leap of faith, a ramp that leads to a high-wire, or a grind that takes you to a true secret area? Table to table transfers. Great lines. And a second secret area--a swimming pool.
THPS1
Warehouse
School
Mall
Chicago (competition level)
Minneapolis
Phoenix
Portland (competition level)
San Francisco
Roswell (competition level)
THPS2
Hangar
School II
Marseille (competition level)
New York City
Venice Beach
Skatestreet (competition level)
Philly
Bullring (competition level)
Skate Heaven (bonus level)
Chopper Drop (bonus level)
19. Chopper Drop
Too small to really even be a level.
18. Skatestreet
The competition levels are boring. I like the wires and secret area, but still it's all plywood.
17. Portland
Another competition level. Not much to look at.
16. Marseille
See above. Just a bunch of bowls. Secret area helps.
15. School
Not a bad level, but School II hurts this ranking.
14. Roswell
Because it was the last level of the first game, I don't think I played it enough for it to really make it's mark on me.
13. Chicago
A competition level but I appreciated the railings in the ceiling as a way to continue a grab trick in the pre-manual era.
12. Minneapolis
Cool secret tape area.
11. Skate Heaven
A wacky level that was fun to play, but hard to take serious.
10. Phoenix
A really interesting level that adds great variety.
9. Philly
I like the city levels, but this one doesn't have a ton going for it.
8. Bullring
Cool concept, good pipes.
7. Warehouse
The first level ever. This is classic. Still a good place to hang out.
6. Hangar
Takes the warehouse to the next level with two secret areas and a helicopter that lifts off.
5. Mall
Even though I think the sandbox levels have more replayability, this one is undeniably fun.
4. New York City
My favorite spot in the entire game is a just jumping across a simple staircase on an angle in the back part of the city. The subway cars and taxis give this one a cool factor.
3. San Francisco
Super awesome secret tape area. Wide open city.
2. Venice Beach
A ton to like here. All the different ramps and gaps with plenty of areas to be street or vert and a cool secret tape off the roof.
1. School II
What do you want in a level? How about starting with a huge leap of faith, a ramp that leads to a high-wire, or a grind that takes you to a true secret area? Table to table transfers. Great lines. And a second secret area--a swimming pool.
Friday, August 31, 2012
Draft Results: Projections
There's no surefire way to grade a draft. But I felt good about mine and wanted to figure some way to measure up. I could wait until the week 1 projections, but those are dependent on matchups. So I took the yearly projections of just our starting lineups. This ignores bench depth and uses some questionable figures (An injured Ryan Mathews is at 218, 12 more than Jamaal Charles?) But it's a rough guide.
I wanted to do mine and Mark's obviously, then I wanted to see how Kirat's autodraft stacked up, and then I picked Stevo because he waited on QB until Romo in the 3rd round.
Dave
QB 420
RB/WR 819
TE 229.5
D/K 260
Total 1728.5
Mark
QB 434
RB/WR 900.5
TE 178.5
D/K 253
Total 1766
Kirat's Autodraft
QB 309
RB/WR 1004.5
TE 156
D/K 257
Total 1726.5
Stevo
QB 323
RB/WR 937.5
TE 127
D/K 300
Total 1687.5
Quick takeaway: bummer that my 5 rb/wr are valued significantly lower than kirat's autodraft. So I'm hoping that ESPN is too low on Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Michael Turner.
I wanted to do mine and Mark's obviously, then I wanted to see how Kirat's autodraft stacked up, and then I picked Stevo because he waited on QB until Romo in the 3rd round.
Dave
QB 420
RB/WR 819
TE 229.5
D/K 260
Total 1728.5
Mark
QB 434
RB/WR 900.5
TE 178.5
D/K 253
Total 1766
Kirat's Autodraft
QB 309
RB/WR 1004.5
TE 156
D/K 257
Total 1726.5
Stevo
QB 323
RB/WR 937.5
TE 127
D/K 300
Total 1687.5
Quick takeaway: bummer that my 5 rb/wr are valued significantly lower than kirat's autodraft. So I'm hoping that ESPN is too low on Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Michael Turner.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
relationship advice
Over the last couple months, I saw some good threads on reddit that opened my eyes to the way dating works. Of course, now I can't find them. But I wanted to write/expound upon them before I forgot them. Both for any future kids and just general knowledge.
1. Befriending vs Attracting
I'll start with what I think is a typical occurrence. A guy starts liking a girl. Probably because of looks first, but if there's more to it (they share a similar sense of humor, they're both easygoing, or share interests or whatever) then it develops into a crush. So now a guy has a crush on a girl. What does he do?
He's nice to her. He might give her a compliment, he might carry her books, he might make her food. In his head, he's hoping that she'll see how nice he is and want to date him. (And when that doesn't happen, he might complain that she likes bad boys or assholes. But more on that later.) But what is he really doing? He's befriending her. He's doing nice things that a friend would do.
And here's where some guys seem to complain that "she friendzoned me." That she thinks of me only as a friend, when I want to date her. Well as the saying goes "girls are not machines that you put kindness coins into until sex falls out." She didn't friend zone you. You became her friend. And you never gave her a reason to think of you as anything more than that.
In other words, you befriended her. But you never attracted her.
It seems sort of simple, but this was the revelation to me. It probably never occurred to me, because you never think of the girl as doing anything to "attract" you in the first place. But she did, even if was just being herself.
So what's the solution? I don't know that I have this part figured out. And I sincerely believe the advice isn't to be someone you're not. But it's not just be nice either.
I think it's probably starts with believing that you're worth being attracted to. That you can tell a funny story, be comfortable with who you are, and not worry about whether you're attracting her at all.
2. Girls Like Jerks
Here's another common story. "Nice guys finish last. I'm so nice to this girl. And she wants to date the guy that's mean to her. He rides a motorcycle and doesn't remember her birthday."
(You'll notice that these two points do overlap.) I fully believed this story for a long time. And just chalked it up to "girls like bad boys," as a sort of rebellion that I didn't understand. But here's what clicked for me recently on reddit.
a. Girls aren't attracted to bad boys. Girls are attracted to guys with confidence.
b. Nice guys often hear girls talking about the problems in a relationship, either while it's happening or after a break-up. Girls rarely gush to their guy friends about how great their boyfriend is. But they have no problem mentioning that their boyfriend was a jerk the other day. So nice guys perceive that girls are in relationships with jerks, but that's probably not the full story. I suppose that sort of covers point B.
Point A is something that I suppose nice guys have heard all their life and then shrug their shoulders and whine about how am I supposed to have confidence if every girl always shuts me down. Here's what I say to that: Fucking nut up. Fake it 'til you make it. Girls have not shut you down. You've shut yourself down. If you go up to a girl and really believe (like truly believe it) that you are worth talking to, you'll be fine. Or don't. Continue whining.
I don't know why this turned angry, but I read so many posts about friendzones and lack of confidence that it annoys me. No company wants to hire the applicant that doesn't believe he can do the job. And no girl wants to date a guy that doesn't believe in himself.
1. Befriending vs Attracting
I'll start with what I think is a typical occurrence. A guy starts liking a girl. Probably because of looks first, but if there's more to it (they share a similar sense of humor, they're both easygoing, or share interests or whatever) then it develops into a crush. So now a guy has a crush on a girl. What does he do?
He's nice to her. He might give her a compliment, he might carry her books, he might make her food. In his head, he's hoping that she'll see how nice he is and want to date him. (And when that doesn't happen, he might complain that she likes bad boys or assholes. But more on that later.) But what is he really doing? He's befriending her. He's doing nice things that a friend would do.
And here's where some guys seem to complain that "she friendzoned me." That she thinks of me only as a friend, when I want to date her. Well as the saying goes "girls are not machines that you put kindness coins into until sex falls out." She didn't friend zone you. You became her friend. And you never gave her a reason to think of you as anything more than that.
In other words, you befriended her. But you never attracted her.
It seems sort of simple, but this was the revelation to me. It probably never occurred to me, because you never think of the girl as doing anything to "attract" you in the first place. But she did, even if was just being herself.
So what's the solution? I don't know that I have this part figured out. And I sincerely believe the advice isn't to be someone you're not. But it's not just be nice either.
I think it's probably starts with believing that you're worth being attracted to. That you can tell a funny story, be comfortable with who you are, and not worry about whether you're attracting her at all.
2. Girls Like Jerks
Here's another common story. "Nice guys finish last. I'm so nice to this girl. And she wants to date the guy that's mean to her. He rides a motorcycle and doesn't remember her birthday."
(You'll notice that these two points do overlap.) I fully believed this story for a long time. And just chalked it up to "girls like bad boys," as a sort of rebellion that I didn't understand. But here's what clicked for me recently on reddit.
a. Girls aren't attracted to bad boys. Girls are attracted to guys with confidence.
b. Nice guys often hear girls talking about the problems in a relationship, either while it's happening or after a break-up. Girls rarely gush to their guy friends about how great their boyfriend is. But they have no problem mentioning that their boyfriend was a jerk the other day. So nice guys perceive that girls are in relationships with jerks, but that's probably not the full story. I suppose that sort of covers point B.
Point A is something that I suppose nice guys have heard all their life and then shrug their shoulders and whine about how am I supposed to have confidence if every girl always shuts me down. Here's what I say to that: Fucking nut up. Fake it 'til you make it. Girls have not shut you down. You've shut yourself down. If you go up to a girl and really believe (like truly believe it) that you are worth talking to, you'll be fine. Or don't. Continue whining.
I don't know why this turned angry, but I read so many posts about friendzones and lack of confidence that it annoys me. No company wants to hire the applicant that doesn't believe he can do the job. And no girl wants to date a guy that doesn't believe in himself.
Thursday, August 09, 2012
Monday, August 06, 2012
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
true story
My Creative Director: (looking over at me) What the hell is that?
Me: (holding a sandwich) It's a sandwich.
My Creative Director: No, not what's you're holding. What's on your screen?
Me: That's also a sandwich.
Me: (holding a sandwich) It's a sandwich.
My Creative Director: No, not what's you're holding. What's on your screen?
Me: That's also a sandwich.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Mark Fever
We started Sunday at Red Rocks. We hiked an epic 1.4. Slayed it.
And then we went to the Coors brewery tour. A fine thing to do, but one I probably don't need to do again.
After that it was off to Park Burger where I fulfilled the 2011 burger bet. And then this evening we went bowling. Mark won the first game with a 122. I won the second game with a 122. And then I won the third game with a 162, including a turkey.
And then we went to the Coors brewery tour. A fine thing to do, but one I probably don't need to do again.
After that it was off to Park Burger where I fulfilled the 2011 burger bet. And then this evening we went bowling. Mark won the first game with a 122. I won the second game with a 122. And then I won the third game with a 162, including a turkey.
Friday, July 27, 2012
the best ever olympic torch lighting
It blew me away when I was 8. Still does 20 years later. Holy crap.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Sunday, July 08, 2012
Friday, June 22, 2012
The Bank
Since this awesomely Comic Sans letter in which Dan Gilbert "personally guaranteed that the Cavs would win one before LeBron" and "you can take that to the bank"...
The Cavs have won 40 games.
The Heat have won 134 games.
Including two consecutive Finals appearances, 1 title, 1 Finals MVP and 1 Season MVP for the self-proclaimed king.
So which bank can I take his guarantee to?
The Cavs have won 40 games.
The Heat have won 134 games.
Including two consecutive Finals appearances, 1 title, 1 Finals MVP and 1 Season MVP for the self-proclaimed king.
So which bank can I take his guarantee to?
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
8th Seed Hoists the Cup
Here's what I wrote in freaking December:
The LA Kings had the 14th best record in the NHL. And only lost four games in four playoff series on the way to hoisting Lord Stanley's mug.
For the last ten seasons, only top-4 seeds have won it all, and usually a 1 or a 2 seed. This year? A freaking 8th seed.
Going back for the last ten years, here are the regular season records for the Cup winners:
2011: Bruins (7th best record in NHL)
2010: Blackhawks (3rd)
2009: Penguins (8th)
2008: Red Wings (1st)
2007: Ducks (4th)
2006: Hurricanes (4th)
2004: Lightning (2nd)
2003: Devils (4th)
2002: Red Wings (1st)
2001: Avalanche (1st)
I think this is pretty revealing. For seven seasons, the Cup winner had a top-4 record in the league. Over the last three years, it's expanded, but not by much. The Bruins were a 3-seed and the Penguins were a 4-seed.
So in modern hockey, in a league where SIXTEEN teams get in the playoffs, you still have to be a top team to win it all. I suppose the 7-game series nature helps that quite a bit.
The LA Kings had the 14th best record in the NHL. And only lost four games in four playoff series on the way to hoisting Lord Stanley's mug.
For the last ten seasons, only top-4 seeds have won it all, and usually a 1 or a 2 seed. This year? A freaking 8th seed.
Sunday, June 03, 2012
Colorado Sky
I've seen better sunset and sunrises in a year in Colorado than I have the rest of my life. Maybe Colorado's not the best in the world...maybe the midwest is just dreary.
Anyways, about two months ago I put our point & shoot in my car. Here are some shots that I happened to catch while getting groceries and driving to curling.
This next shot features downtown Denver in the distance and the Rockies beyond that.
Anyways, about two months ago I put our point & shoot in my car. Here are some shots that I happened to catch while getting groceries and driving to curling.
This next shot features downtown Denver in the distance and the Rockies beyond that.
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