BIG TEN CHAMPS

For the first time in Hoagie Central history, Illinois has won the Big Ten in basketball or football. 

(Fun Fact: Illinois Football has won the Big Ten exactly one time in the last 40 years and it was our freshmen year. So I feel like you can kind of take football out of the equation.)

Since we graduated, these things happened before Illinois Basketball won the Big Ten:

• The Royals won the World Series
• The Chiefs won the Super Bowl

That's insane. 

When we were students in 2001-2005, Illinois Basketball won the Big Ten every year. 

They won the regular season title in 02, 04 and 05. They won the tournament title in 03 and 05. That's 5 titles in 4 years. I took it for granted back then. 

But after 15 years of not winning one, not even making the tournament most years, it feels damn good to be a Big Ten Champ again. 

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On to the tournament. Here's how long it's been for Illinois:

7 seasons without the tournament. 3 NIT appearances. 3 where we weren't good enough for the NIT. And one Covid cancellation. Our last tournament game was 8 years ago! Our next one is Friday.

VICTORY. ILLINOIS. TOURNEY.

Iowa fans think that Luka Garza is the best player in college basketball. Not sure how that's possible when he was the 3rd or 4th best player on the court today. Illinois dominated the paint 52-24 and is now 2-0 vs Iowa this year. 

In the middle of January, Illinois lost twice in a row and they seemed like they didn't belong in the top ten ranked teams. In fact, on January 19 they were ranked #22 in the country. Now they're locked in as a #1 seed. How'd that happen?

13-1. Taking down top teams along the way. Beautiful

Tomorrow they get to play for a Big Ten Championship, which would be their first since we were in school in 2005. 

Also, gotta love these regular season standings on ESPN showing that second-place Illinois finished half a game ahead of Michigan. 

So we know Illinois is a 1 seed...and Gonzaga is the top seed overall. But after that? I think Illinois has moved ahead of Michigan and Baylor hasn't looked so hot lately. So...will Illinois get slotted as the second-best 1 seed? 

No matter what region we're in, Illinois will have vocal fans and is peaking at the right time. The Ayo injury has only made this team stronger. It's good to be an Illini right now. 

Idea: Player of the Year

Insight: What is the ideal number of elite tennis players to have in the world at one time? 

The answer is two.

Tennis is at its best when you have two players who develop a rivalry and consistently meet in the finals time and time again. Agassi/Sampras, Federer/Nadal, Seles/Graf. Serena never had one and as fans, we lost out. 

Premise: The BCS was a great format...but not for college football. 

When you have a rivalry like this, or are trying to develop one, what do you want to see? The two best players going against each other. You don't want to see one get tripped up in the quarterfinals of the US Open to some schlub. And you don't want to see a bunch of schlubs face each other. 

Idea: A new two-player tournament to determine the player of the year. There are three surfaces so we'd have to play matches on all three. I'm thinking a Friday-Saturday-Sunday tournament. Winner gets a big purse, gets crowned Player of the year. 

To figure out who gets invited, we'd need a computer scoring system that calculates their tournament finishes throughout the year OR you get a selection committee. Could add a bit of juice throughout the year when there are three or four elite players. (Djokovic wins Wimbledon, will that be enough for him to make the PotY tournament?)

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They're sort of doing this in golf, but not really. The FedEx Playoffs consist of three tournaments and the final tournament includes 30 golfers!

The final tournament of the year should be 4 golfers max. Play 36 holes as a foursome on a Saturday-Sunday. Let me focus on the best players, playing in the same group. (I also would enjoy a 2 or 3-player skins game.)

this is art

 

March Madness is Fleeting Like No Other

Trying to build a Final Four team is like catching lightning in a bottle. 

With only 5 players on the court, a few elite players or one superstar can make all the difference. And yet, the better your players, the sooner they leave. 

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Like in any team sport, you need the best players to win. So you'd think that if you got a player like Kevin Durant to come to your school, that would be a program-defining moment. He was the unanimous player of the year, the first freshman to accomplish that. 

Texas won exactly 1 March Madness game with Durant, as a 4 over a 13. They were better the year after Durant left, getting to the Elite Eight. They haven't been back since. One superstar doesn't build a program. 

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You can have a program like Kansas that wins National Championships and owns their conference for a decade. And they can still get bounced in the first round against Bucknell and Bradley. That's part of what makes March Madness must-see TV. But you also know as a fan that nothing is guaranteed. 

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Off the top of my head, I would have said that the best program of the last decade was Kentucky. But Calipari has only won 1 national title there. In 2015 they were 37-0 and in the Final Four but lost to Wisconsin. The only title for Kentucky this century was the one season Anthony Davis played there. They had one shot with Davis and made the most of it. 

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Last year, the stars aligned for Dayton. The last time they've won a March Madness game was 2015. But last year, they went 29-2 and a perfect 18-0 in conference. They had national player of the year Obi Toppin. And they were going to be a #1 seed. And then for the first time in history, the tournament got cancelled. Toppin is now a lottery pick on the Knicks. 

Dayton had one shot with a loaded roster and didn't even get to play. 

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Which brings us to Illinois. Last year, the Illini peaked at 19th in the AP Poll. It was the best they'd been since 2009. And then the tournament got cancelled. It seemed cruel, a lesser degree of what Dayton was experiencing. 

But then Ayo and Kofi came back, at least partly due to the pandemic and all the uncertainty surrounding the NBA. 

So as I type this, it's March and Illinois is peaking at #4 in the AP Poll. Illinois has a game against #2 Michigan tomorrow, but it seems likely that Ayo will miss it due to a broken nose. We're expecting him to return to the lineup, with a protective mask, by the Big Ten Tournament. 

It shows you how fleeting everything can be. This is Illinois best chance for a Final Four since 2005. Will it go the way of Durant or Davis? 

The case for optimism is that this injury forces the rest of the team to step up and they're playing at their best when it matters most. And it would be fitting, that in a year with no fans because of a pandemic, that the national player of the year is wearing a mask in the Final Four.

Weight Loss by Month: February 2021

 August – November 2020: 30 pounds 

January 2021: 7 pounds

February 2021: 5 pounds

This was a really great month. As it turns out there's a big difference for me from 35 to 40 pounds lost. All of a sudden, my L t-shirts fit properly. I was able to put away all the XL and that felt pretty great. 

Also, I'm now back to what I was when I left Colorado. Which means that I'm the fittest I've been since 2016. Which means I now weigh the same as I did in these photos. 

Except for about 10 days at Christmas, I've pretty much been on track for 7 months straight. Just keep stacking good months on good months. 

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So 42 down. Another 18 and I'll be at what I was in college. 

So even though I'm not at a goal weight, I'm already reaping the rewards of the progress. This isn't like saving up for a jet ski, where 2/3 of the way there you still don't have a jet ski. I'm definitely happier to be at this weight than I was last summer. 

And it's going to be good for me in the long-term that it's taking so long to get to a goal weight. Because for me, maintenance is going to have to look pretty darn close to my weight loss habits. So the longer I make these habits part of my life to lose weight, the easier it will be to keep them during maintenance. 

I'm now able to start thinking about some of the outdoorsy bucket list goals from hikes to rock climbing walls to a ropes challenge course to playing tennis often, all things that seemed laughable just half a year ago.

Two Days Later

Winning a Super Bowl is really, really hard. 

A ton of great players and teams have never done it. Some first-ballot hall of famers have won one. 

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Leading up to Super Bowl LV, it was tempting to think about back-to-backs, dynasties, and the idea that Mahomes was never going to lose a playoff game again. So sure, that's gone. No back to back. No three-peat. No dynasty. 

But in a way, it makes the Super Bowl LIV run even more special. 

Getting the bye on the last week of the regular season. 
The Houston Texans 24-0 comeback. 
Winning the Lamar Hunt trophy at home in front of 80,000 Chiefs fans. 
And then the 3rd and 15 comeback in the Super Bowl. 

Having it actually happen when I lived in KC and could go to the parade. 

When you choose to follow a team, watch their games, buy their tickets, think about draft picks, wear their shirts, invest part of your heart in their outcomes, everything that happened last year is all I ever need. 

So That's What a Super Bowl Loss Feels Like

I'm definitely glad it happened in this order. 

In other words, this loss would have crushed me last year. 

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The Bucs kicked the Chiefs ass. Outplayed on both sides. Specifically the Bucs defense overpowered the normally unstoppable Chiefs offense. The Eric Fisher loss was huge, but even with him in there, it seems like this D was too strong. 

And Brady gets #7. He leaves New England and instantly brings a title to Tampa in his first year. He has more than Belichick, more than any franchise in the league, including the Patriots. 

More than Jordan. 

Greatest of all time. 

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I thought Brady was too old. In week 1, the Bucs lost to the Saints and I posted this.

Then he lost to Nick Foles and the Bears and didn't know what down it was and became a meme. 

Then they got blown out by the Saints 38-3. 

Then the Chiefs went in and blew their doors off in Tampa. 

The Bucs didn't even win their division. No bye. Three road playoff wins and then blows out the defending Champs in the Super Bowl. What a run. 

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So I'm glad I bought all that LIV merch. I'm glad I made such a big deal out of it on this dang website. It sucks to lose a Super Bowl but I'm satisfied. I went to a parade a year ago. Mahomes is a warrior. I'm good.

A Work of Art

 

One year ago today, everything changed. 

First, look how desperate the game situation is. Down 10 with just over 7 minutes to go. Chiefs have only scored 10 points in the first 53 minutes. Now they need to get 10 more in the last 7. Even if you score a touchdown here, you still have to get the ball back and score again. 

And it's 3rd and 15. They know you're going to pass. It's hard to convert 3rd and 5 in crucial situations, let alone 3rd and 15. 

And then Fox has Mahomes' stat line on screen. 181 yards. 0 tds. 2 ints. If the 49ers defense can make a stop on this drive, they win the Super Bowl. Mahomes gets a rep as a guy that chokes in the big games. The 49ers get a parade. The Chiefs face the Super Bowl hangover loss effect. All of that is one stop away and it's 3rd and 15 from the KC 35. Everything in this paragraph was so very likely at this moment in time. 

And then, in a snap, it wasn't.

Weight Loss by Month: January 2021

August – November 2020: 30 pounds 

January 2021: 7 pounds

A bit of a stranger update. 

After only losing 3 pounds in November, I lost 5 pounds in the first half of December. Some of that was probably catch-up weight from Thanksgiving. But then there was Christmas where I definitely got off track. In early January I got on the scale and I had gained those 5 back. But in January I got back on track, and those 5 were quick to come off again. 

So essentially I didn't lose any in December, but now I'm down 7 this month, 37 overall. 

The second thing that made this weird was that we started lifting weights. There were some days where I expected weight loss, felt a lot smaller, but then even gained weight. That could be retaining water or actual muscle building, or both. Point is, unlike in 2020, the scale might not be a great way of measuring progress. As in, I should be gaining muscle weight as I'm losing fat. 

Regardless, I'm getting in better shape, fitting in clothes that I haven't worn in 4 years. And no holiday weeks or vacations to throw me off track.

Definitely seems like I can pass 40 pounds lost in February, so that's something to look forward to. 

Given that January was inflated by those 5 from Christmas and the lifting weights, I'm not going to lose 7 in Feb. I'd be happy with 3-4 this month.

Super Bowl Props

I've never been one for Super Bowl Props...but my team's never tried to win back to back Super Bowls. 

I'm putting $1000 of fake money on each of these. 

Race to 30 Points: Chiefs +120 

Time of First Score Under 7:30 +165

Chiefs -10 (Alternate Line) at +250

Successful 2pt Conversion +275

First Score is a Bucs Field Goal +450

Chiefs win by 7-12 +500

First Penalty is Pass Interference +700

 

I'll see if I can turn a profit once I take away the initial $7000.

UPDATE:

So this was neat. A great way to lose $7000. Good thing it was fake money, Jesus.

Insane stat: In the 17 games the Chiefs starters played, the Chiefs defense was on the field losing by more than 8 points for exactly one snap. 

Whenever teams opened up a two-possession lead (ie Bills went up 9 in the AFC Championship Game) the Chiefs always scored. 

How Super Bowl LV Could Unfold

Games can unfold in any number of ways, even when you're 50 minutes of the way through. I thought it would be fun to consider what are some of the ways that it could happen, look for precedents, and then see which one seems the most likely. 

1. The Early Chiefs Comeback + Cruise to Victory

Precedent: Chiefs vs Bills last week, Chiefs vs Texans & Titans last year

This is where the Chiefs get in an early hole, typically 10 points or so, but take the lead by halftime and hold on for a 10+ margin of victory. The opponent hangs around but it never actually feels like the game is in doubt in the 4th. 

Final Score: Chiefs 34, Bucs 24

2. The Late Chiefs Comeback, Close Game

Precedent: Chiefs vs 49ers last year, Chiefs vs Patriots two years ago

This is where the Chiefs are trailing in the 4th quarter and need some Mahomes magic. As long as he touches the ball, you feel good about your chances. 

Final Score: Chiefs 38, Bucs 34

3. The Chiefs Take Big 1st Half Lead, Opponent Makes It Close Late

Precedent: Chiefs at Bucs this year

Two months ago these teams played in Tampa and it was 17-0 Chiefs in the first quarter. Tampa cut it to 27-24 with 4 minutes to go but never got the ball back.

Final Score: Chiefs 34, Bucs 31

4. The Chiefs Take Big 1st Half Lead, Opponent Comes Back to Win

Precedent: Chiefs vs Raiders this year

Mahomes has won 25 of his last 26 games. But that one loss, KC was up 21-10. We know Tom Brady can come back in Super Bowls. 

Final Score: Bucs 37, Chiefs 34

5. The Chiefs Play Their Best Game

Precedent: Chiefs vs Ravens this year, at Broncos this year, quarters 2-4 of Texans game last year

Mathieu makes a pick, Sorensen forces a fumble, Chiefs receivers are getting open. Basically, the AFC Championship vs Bills but without the muffed punt. 

Final Score: Chiefs 38, Bucs 17

6. Mahomes Gets Hurt

Precedent: Last year vs Broncos, this year vs Browns

If Chad Henne has to play more than he did in the Browns game, that's bad news for KC. 

Final Score: Bucs 27, Chiefs 17

7. The Chiefs Get Outplayed

Precedent: Last year vs Colts, 1st quarter of Texans playoff game

If the Chiefs drop every pass, fumble the ball, and get beat on deep balls over and over, this game won't be close.

Final Score: Bucs 34, Chiefs 20

8. The Bucs Do What They Did to the Saints & Packers

Precedent: Bucs last 2 games

All the other possibilities have been from a Chiefs perspective, but the Bucs just won two playoff games as underdogs. Their defense made plays and the Bucs were aggressive when they needed to be. The games were close for the most part, but the Tom Brady team just won in the end. 

Final Score: Bucs 30, Chiefs 27

So that's four ways that each team could win. 

What do I think is most likely? 1, 3 or 5. 

I don't normally predict wins, because it's extra embarrassing if they lose...but I do think Chiefs will be up 10 points in the 4th. Maybe the Bucs get a late touchdown like they did in the regular season, or maybe Chiefs make it a 3-possession game. 

The Chiefs Come Back in the Playoffs

Most teams in the NFL play best with a lead. It's common knowledge. You can call any play you want. Your QB doesn't have to force throws. Your defense can tee off on the pass rush. There's less pressure to score quickly. There are plenty of teams from the 2020 Colts to the 2019 49ers, who you like a lot if they have a 10 point lead but not so much if they're down 10. 

The Chiefs are the opposite. 

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In their 7 playoff games with Mahomes, there have been 5 where the Chiefs faced at least a 2 possession deficit. 

In those 5 games where they trailed by 9+, KC is 4-1. (The other two games the Chiefs also won.)

KC trailed by 14 to New England. Game went to OT and KC lost. 

KC trailed by 24 to Houston. KC won by 20.

KC trailed by 10 to Tennessee. KC won by 11.

KC trailed by 10 to San Francisco. KC won by 11. 

KC trailed by 9 to Buffalo. KC won by 14.

KC erased all 5 playoff deficits. They've turned the last four into double digit wins.

I've said when you go up 10 on Mahomes, it activates his superpowers. The Bills knew this and missed the extra point, making it a 9-point lead. But ball don't lie. Superpowers were activated anyways. 

That's the scariest thing about playing this team. If you take the lead, they have you right where they want you. In fact, as I just wrote about, their only loss in the last 15 months was when KC got up 21-10 on the Raiders.

Take a 9 point lead on this team at your own risk.