best song of 2011

strange avs trends

The Avs started 6-0 in road games. Since then, they are 0-8-1. Their last road win was October 22.

They started 1-5 in home games. Over their last six, they are 6-0. Their last home loss was November 28.

They are 6-0 in shootouts. Only one other team hasn't lost a shootout--the Red Wings are 1-0 in shootouts.

way to go, spokane

fantasy 2011 lessons

(since I'm writing this monday, season stats do not include week 15)

There are seven top QBs. We have 12 teams. 3 of the 4 playoff teams have one of the top seven.

Here's where they were drafted:

Rodgers - 409 - 4th overall
Brees - 353 - 13th overall
Brady - 340 - 11th overall
Newton - 323 - undrafted*
Stafford - 298 - 92th overall
Eli - 282 - 86th overall
Romo - 277 - 31st overall

*(Mac picked him before week 1 to be Bradford's backup. Newton had completed 42% of his preseason passes with a passer rating of 64.)

Not a big surprise that the two teams that got tremendous value at QB were the two best teams--Mac and Mark. And the team with Rodgers made the playoffs while the team with Brees was tied for second best record in the league, though missed the playoffs due to tiebreakers.

There are nine top RBs.

McCoy - 8th overall
Rice - 5th overall
Jones-Drew - 14th overall
Foster - 6th overall
Forte - 30th overall
Jackson - 67th overall
Peterson - 1st overall
Lynch - 81st overall
Sproles - 160th overall (and then dropped)

If you wonder how Cobb could draft Peyton Manning and make the playoffs, here's your answer. He had 3 of the top 6 running backs. Fred Jackson missed the last three games and he's still a top 6 back. Though unfortunately he lost Forte and Jackson before the playoffs. When Mac picked up Cam Newton, he dropped Sproles--probably should of dropped Thomas Jones instead.

8 top WRs:

Welker - 64th overall
Johnson - 20th overall
Cruz - (undrafted)*
Smith - 85th overall
Wallace - 29th overall
Jennings - 18th overall
Nelson - 119th overall
Fitzgerald - 22nd overall

*(picked up after getting two touchdowns in week 3. scored 2 points through the first two weeks)

This year more than others I can remember, the best players weren't drafted in the first rounds. Everyone had chances to grab these players.

- - -

It's amazing (as always) to look back at the first couple rounds and see the disappointments, some due to injury: Vick, Charles, Chris Johnson, Andre Johnson.

Should Orton be back next year?

A lot of Chiefs fans have had it with Cassel. And after seeing one game from Orton in red and gold, they're ready to proclaim him the QB of the future. But how does he stack up to Cassel?

Cassel played 10 games for the Chiefs this year.
Orton has played 1.

Orton's game had a better completion percentage, yards, yards/attempt, and passer rating than ANY of Cassel's 10 games. And compared to last year when Bowe was going off, and Cassel threw 27 TD, 7 INT, Cassel still never had that kind of completion percentage or yards/attempt more than twice in 16 games. In fact, if Orton had yesterday's stats for every game this year this would be his ranks in the NFL this year:

Yards: 5th
Rating: 4th
Yards/Attempt: 1st
Completion %: 1st

So certainly, by any measure, Orton had a terrific game yesterday.

- - -

But it was one game. How many times have you seen no-so-great quarterbacks have great games?

And it was against the Packers. Yes, they were undefeated. But their defense hasn't been that great this year. And they're still going to have home-field throughout. While I'm sure they would have liked to keep winning, this wasn't life or death for them.

- - -

If Orton could play like he did yesterday, everyday, then sure, we should bring him back because he'd be a top-3 NFL QB. But let's not assume, after one freaking game, that he can do that every week.

- - -

P.S. It's funny that it was Orton who I railed against in my first sort of NFL column from 2005. Although if you look at his stats, I don't think you can blame me. Amazing that the Bears went 11-5 with a QB averaging 51%, 116 yards, and a 59.7 rating. (This year, Josh Freeman is throwing 61%, 217 yards, and a 73.5 rating and the Bucs are 4-10.)

And it's just as amazing that the 2006 Bears went the Super Bowl with Grossman putting up these numbers. He had two games where he combined for 0 TD, 7 INT, a 5 passer rating, and 35% completion. And Chicago won both games.

good day to be a chiefs fan

I don't know if it's possible (and I know this means that I'm sort of but not really rooting for the Raiders) but I would absolutely love for the Orton Chiefs to beat the Tebows on the last game of the year and knock them out of the playoffs.

Illinois in the National Championship

UCLA, Illinois reach volleyball final

Illinois wins with Hollywood ending

avs-sharks

So just yesterday I posted how I shouldn't get sucked into hoping the Avs make the playoffs this year. And then last night I turn on the Avs-Sharks game. I had to work around Harrison's nap schedule. So I got to see a little bit of the first and then all of the third.

Down 1 going into the last period, the Avs tie it up with a wraparound during 4 on 4 play with 13 minutes to go. I LOVE wraparounds. They never seem like they should work, but they're a thing of beauty when they do.



And then with 8 minutes to go, the Avs on the power play, move the puck from Elliot to O'Reilly to Hejduk to Duchene to the back of the net.

The Sharks pull their goalie. And then with only 30 seconds to go, the Avs McClement fans on clearing the puck and San Jose ties it up.

So now we're in OT and then a shootout.

Avs score first but only go 1/3. San Jose miss their first two. One save wins it. And the Sharks score.

Then the Avs miss. So the Avs need a save. And they get it.

Then the rookie (#2 overall pick) Landeskog scores for Colorado on his first career shootout attempt. And San Jose...hits the post.

Back and forth, and Colorado pulls out two points for the standings. Sure San Jose got one, but whatever.

Good times.

i could've been a contender

So one thing that I thought about with the Chiefs over the last couple years, particularly in 2005 when they missed the playoffs at 10-6, and in 2006 and 2010 when they lost in the wild-card round...is that it's not really enough to just make the playoffs--you need a Super Bowl contender.

Take the Raiders this year. They're only one game out of the division. But even if they won the division and hosted a playoff game...they're not winning the Super Bowl this year. So what's the point of getting all excited about making in to the playoffs? But then you have teams like the Packers who win the Super Bowl as the 6th seed and the Cardinals that win the World Series as a wild-card. So you have evidence that all you need to do is make into the playoffs and anything can happen.

So which is it?

- - -

What made me think of this? The Avs are currently 12th in the conference. They've played 30 games. If they had won 3 more, they'd be 8th in the conference and in the playoffs. So I've been eyeing that line and hoping they could win enough to get to that 8th spot. But should I be? Is getting in the playoffs with a mediocre team enough? Or to win a championship, do you have to have one of the best teams?

- - -

Going back for the last ten years, here are the regular season records for the Cup winners:

2011: Bruins (7th best record in NHL)
2010: Blackhawks (3rd)
2009: Penguins (8th)
2008: Red Wings (1st)
2007: Ducks (4th)
2006: Hurricanes (4th)
2004: Lightning (2nd)
2003: Devils (4th)
2002: Red Wings (1st)
2001: Avalanche (1st)

I think this is pretty revealing. For seven seasons, the Cup winner had a top-4 record in the league. Over the last three years, it's expanded, but not by much. The Bruins were a 3-seed and the Penguins were a 4-seed.

So in modern hockey, in a league where SIXTEEN teams get in the playoffs, you still have to be a top team to win it all. I suppose the 7-game series nature helps that quite a bit.

So what about other sports?

NFL 

2010: Packers (8th best) [They were a 6-seed but 10-6, while the 4-seed Seahawks were 7-9.]
2009: Saints (2nd)
2008: Steelers (5th)
2007: Giants (8th)
2006: Colts (4th)
2005: Steelers (9th)
2004: Patriots (2nd)
2003: Patriots (1st)
2002: Bucs (3rd)
2001: Patriots (7th)

Considering only 12 teams make it in, the fact that 4 of the last 10 NFL Champions were 7th best or lower does suggest that the NFL playoffs are more wide open than the NHL playoffs. Though it should be noted when we've had 6-seed winners, they were still in the top 9 in the league.

MLB

2011: Cardinals (8th best)
2010: Giants (5th)
2009: Yankees (1st)
2008: Phillies (5th)
2007: Red Sox (2nd)
2006: Cardinals (13th) [Won a 6-team division with a 83-78 record. Only played 161 games due to a rainout that was never made up because it didn't matter.]
2005: White Sox (2nd)
2004: Red Sox (3rd)
2003: Marlins (7th)
2002: Angels (4th)

There's just as many winners from outside the top-4 teams as from the top-4. Considering only 8 teams get in, I'd say it's reasonable for a fan to just hope their team makes the postseason.


NBA

2011: Mavericks (5th)
2010: Lakers (2nd)
2009: Lakers (2nd)
2008: Celtics (1st)
2007: Spurs (5th)
2006: Heat (4th)
2005: Spurs (3rd)
2004: Pistons (6th)
2003: Spurs (1st)
2002: Lakers (3rd)

Much like the NHL, it's not enough to sneak into the playoffs. You need to be a top-5 team in the league during the regular season. So come the 2012 NBA playoffs, we should look at the top 5 teams and be able to cross off the other contenders.

Of note: The Cavs with and without LeBron. I didn't realize how good their regular season records were since they never won a title.

2009: 1st in the NBA
2010: 1st in the NBA
2011: 29th in the NBA

Also of note: From 1980-2010, there were 31 NBA Champions. They were distributed among 8 franchises: Lakers, Celtics, 76ers, Pistons, Bulls, Rockets, Spurs, Heat. The 2011 Mavericks make it 9 franchises out of 32 titles.

In other words, of all the NBA fans born since 1976, only one-third of them has seen their team win a championship. 

- - -

So to get back to the original question. The Avs currently have the 25th best record in the NHL. Right now the 8th seed in the West is the Sharks with the 14th best record. I guess I should stop hoping they sneak up to the 14th best record, and hope they rebuild enough to be a top-5 team.

if mcdaniels gets hired

...I don't know how to finish that sentence without my head exploding.

the haley era is over

Let's review:

He inherited a 2-14 team with Tyler Thigpen.

In 2009, in Matt Cassel's first year, the Chiefs finished 4-12.

In 2010, they finished 10-6, winning the division.

In 2011, Berry, Charles, Moeaki go down at the beginning of the season. Somehow they regroup and get to 4-4. Then Cassel goes on IR and in comes Palko, who doesn't even deserve to hold a clipboard in the NFL. Haley is fired at 5-8.

- - -

I'm not saying that Haley is a great coach. He may not have been good enough to coach the Chiefs to a Super Bowl. And it's certainly possible that Kansas City could hire someone better.

But I don't see how you can fire someone for that tenure. (Even without the injuries, the Chiefs probably only finish 8-8 this year. But it sure seems like Haley would still be the coach if it wasn't for all those ACL tears.)

anonymous commenter has good idea

This guy came up with a simple, yet intriguing nhl playoff fix. 

Urban Meyer to Ohio State.
Charlie Weis to Kansas.
Tim Beckman to Illinois.

troy and abed in the christmas