A vs B

The winner of Group A will play the 2nd place team from Group B and vice-versa in the round of 16. I originally noticed that Spain could face Brazil in the Final or as early as the first knockout match. After Spain's first loss that seemed very much in play. Now they're eliminated. But there is a very interesting situation still brewing.

First let's look at Group A.

Brazil 4
Mexico 4
Croatia 3
Cameroon 0

Since Brazil is playing Cameroon you would think Brazil will win and win the group. But you never know. The possibility is there that they could play to a draw like they did against Mexico. Mexico vs Croatia should be for second place, Mexico only needs a tie, Croatia a win.

At this level of analysis, it's not just if you advance, but who wins and who finishes second because of the powers looming in Group B. If Brazil draws, either Mexico or Croatia could win the group and Brazil could finish second. (If Croatia wins by a goal, and Brazil would need to lose to Cameroon by 3 to not advance. So yeah.)

We'll come back to the winner of this group in a moment.

- - -

Here's Group B at the moment:

Netherlands 6
Chile 6
Australia 0
Spain 0

You would think there's no drama here. We know who's advancing. But Netherlands vs Chile is quite important. It determines who wins the groups and therefore, which opponent they'll get in the round of 16. And despite Brazil having less points than either of these two teams, the home country in the knockout round is not your preferred choice. I think either NED or CHI would be favored against MEX or CRO but an underdog against BRA.

So it's simple enough, we'll know who won Group A and assuming it's Brazil, then Netherlands vs Chile will be for the right to avoid them...except it's not.

I'm assuming because of time zones, the Group B matches are before the Group A matches. (3 of the other days are out of order: BA, DC, FE, GH.) So we'll know who wins Group B. And then we get to see the Group A matches.

Which brings strategerie to Brazil. If I'm them, I want to avoid the Netherlands. Perhaps Chile is just as strong, but I think the Netherlands could reach the Finals. If NED wins, extra motivation for Brazil to win their group. Say Chile wins but on a fluke penalty and NED again looks like one of the best teams. I would be very tempted to merely draw with Cameroon to get Chile.