Monday, June 16, 2014

One-Hit Wonders at Golf's Majors

It had seemed to me that in the Tiger Woods era, either it was Tiger (or Phil) winning a major. Or it was a guy you had never heard of. And the best way for me to quantify "if you've heard of them" is if they've won a major before.

So let's start with the numbers.

1950-1959: 27/40 won by multiple major winners
1960-1969: 24/40 won by multiple major winners
1970-1979: 33/40 won by multiple major winners
1980-1989: 32/40 won by multiple major winners
1990-1999: 26/40 won by multiple major winners
2000-2009: 25/40 won by multiple major winners
2010-present: 9/18 won by multiple major winners

The first thing that sticks is out that the 70's and 80's were dominated by big names, more so than the two decades before or after. The 90's and 00's are surprisingly consistent with the 50's and 60's.

Yes, the current decade is on pace for 20/40, but let's not jump to conclusions. Because of the way this is setup, yesterday's win counted for two points in this decade. (Kaymer has now won majors in 2014 and 2010.)

Let's take a look at the previous decades counting only the first 18 majors of the decade.

2000s: 10/18 (Can't count Phil's first)
1990s: 10/18 (Can't count Olzabal's or Els's first)
1980s: 14/18 (Can't count Crenshaw's first)
1970s: 14/18 (Can't count Irwin's first)

So there you go. This decade's pace is slightly lower than the previous two decades. Across 40 years of data, we can expect that about one more person that won their first major this decade, will win another. The candidates include: Scott, Rose, Dunfer, Simpson, Schwartzel, Clarke, Bradley, McDowell, Oosthuizen. 

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