Hater's Guide to the Playoffs

The title isn't really accurate. Only if you realize that I am the hater. 

Now you might think, fresh off a dynasty where you promised you could never complain about sports, surely you're not going to be petty and revel in the failure of others. 

1. This isn't complaining. 

2. No, I'm not better than this.

3. Don't call me Shirley. 

Let's see how are the AFC superstars taking advantage of the Chiefs first down year of the Mahomes era?

Justin Herbert 0-3 in the playoffs. What is he training with Lamar in the offseason? Herbert is 27. Derek Carr was 30 when he said questioning if he can win a playoff game is ridiculous. He never did. Just saying. 

Okay so, I actually have to stop my flow here and go on a deep dive on this. 

- - -

I spent for fucking ever trying to find the HC post with Derek Carr and ridiculous. I finally did. The reason it took so long was it was originally on twitter. But I did post the twitter screenshot to Hoagie Central in November 2022. 

Let's lay out the timeline. 

Carr goes to his first playoff game in January 2022. He loses. 

In April 2022, there's a story where Carr responds to his critics. Here's the headline: Derek Carr: Questioning if I can win a playoff game is ridiculous.

When the story breaks, I post on twitter:

Here is the Reddit NFL post at the time.

And then in May 2025 Carr retires, with a playoff record of 0-1. So I would just like to read all those reddit comments saying that he has plenty of time and the debate is stupid and say they were objectively wrong. 

Anways, back to the flow.

_ _ _

When Jim Harbaugh isn't stealing signs it's a lot harder to win championships. Maybe Brady should hire him to coach the Raiders. 

I guess this is why Justin Herbert is Justin Spreadsheet or Justin Sherbert (not as good as ice cream.)

Let's see who else can take advantage of this opportunity to play in the playoffs without Mahomes?

AFC North? Lamar? Burrow? Bueller? Nobody here either huh.

And let's go down to Duval County to check in on wunderkind Liam Cohen turning around the Jags. Congrats on the 13-4 season and it's gone. Turns out TrevorBank is just as reliable as South Park Bank.

Stay tuned next week where I get to celebrate the Broncos getting bounced in their first game or Josh Allen flaming out before the AFC Title Game. Either way I'm a winner!

The Top Ten of 2025

Funny thing, I was a month away from saying another great year. I got laid off this month, which has a way of changing everything about your life in an instant. But I've been down this road before, and it's a little easier the second time around. 

Anyways, such is life. 

10. 60 Yards is the New 50

This is the kind of post that smart people come to Hoagie Central for.

9. this is art

Breaking down one of the worst NFL losses you'll ever see.

8. Birthday Top Golf

Turns out, I'm a golf guy.

7. Breaking 100 with some asterisks

Told you I'm a golf guy.

6. Ravens Drop the Ball Again

Some fun writing here.

5. Buffalo Work Trip

Good trip. Can't take these for granted.

4. Chiefs to Super Bowl LIX

They didn't win, but some fun stats here. 

3. Chiefs vs Colts: I Was There

I took my boys to their first Chiefs game at Arrowhead.

2. The Final White Whale Update

Perhaps the best use of AI to date.

and what was the highlight of my year?

Number One

Best Movies I Saw in 2025

I watched 75 movies this year. 

42 I watched for the first time. 

33 I had seen before.

There were two movies, that both came out in 2025 that fit into both categories. Mission Impossible 8 and The Naked Gun.

I saw 19 movies that came out in 2025. 

The worst was A House of Dynamite. I thought Sinners was wildly overrated, or at least wildly not for me. 

Top 5 Movies That Came Out in 2025

Honorable Mention: Mountainhead

5. Now You See Me: Now You Don't

4. Gold & Greed: The Hunt for Fenn’s Treasure

3. The Naked Gun

2. Wake Up Dead Man

1. Mission Impossible 8

Top 10 Movies I Saw in 2025

10. Wake Up Dead Man

9. Airplane!

8. Con Air

7. National Treasure

6. Now You See Me (2013)

5. Inglorious Basterds

4. Apollo 13

3. Game Night

2. John Wick franchise as a whole

1. Mission Impossible franchise as a whole

Also honorable mention to Saturday Night, The Holdovers, Will & Harper as great movies that I saw for the first time in 2025. They didn't come out in 2025 so they don't make the first list and they're not up with the all-time greats of the second list, but still notable.

State of Sports

The last time I did this was March 2022. 

CHIEFS

The Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII in February 2023.

The Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII in February 2024. 

The Chiefs lost Super Bowl LIX in February 2025. 

My first State of Sports was in 2012. I had never seen the Chiefs win a playoff game. Here was my 2012 entry: Chiefs 1-10 (virtually a shoe-in for the #1 pick now, but there's no good qbs this year)

So while Broncos fans and Chargers fans are gloating that the Chiefs are missing the playoffs this year, I have enough perspective that we've had it too good for a long while. 

This is Mahomes 8th season as a starter. I'll settle for 7 AFC Championship games, 5 Super Bowls, 3 rings.

AVALANCHE

Last time I did this, the Avs were three months away from winning the Stanley Cup. They were the best team in hockey in March of 2022 and June of 2022. 

This year they are the best team in hockey...by a lot. 

And as everyone knows, the goal is to peak in December and take home the President's Trophy. 

Anyways, let's see how they look in May.

ILLINI FOOTBALL

They've actually been good? Ranked. Beating ranked opponents. 

Going to a bowl game in 2022, 2024, 2025. 

Beating a SEC team in a bowl game. 

Will they win a Big Ten Championship game ever? Probably not. 

But it's better to go 8-4 and get invited to a bowl game most years than it is to be 3-9. 

ILLINI BASKETBALL

Underwood is cooking up something. I'd rather try something out there. So we're going with a Balkan roster pipeline and other schools are complaining about us recruiting all these guys. 

They made it to the Elite Eight in March 2024, which is not nothing. 

USMNT

They made the round of 16 in the 2022 World Cup and now get to host the World Cup in 2026. 

And Kansas City is a host city that will see Argentina play one game, and possibly see Ronaldo vs Messi in the knockout round. 

Titles by Calendar year

2020 - Chiefs Super Bowl

2022 - Avs Stanley Cup

2023 - Chiefs Super Bowl

2024 - Chiefs Super Bowl

Pretty, pretty good. 

Chiefs say goodbye to Arrowhead, moving to Kansas in 2031

I'm pretty conflicted on this so let's divide this up. 

Arrowhead Stadium

Sad to say goodbye to a great stadium, great atmosphere built by die-hards and tailgating culture, great name too

Home to personal memories and iconic moments

The same stadium I saw my first NFL game in, the same stadium my kids saw their first NFL game, all Chiefs wins by the way

I love an open-air stadium for atmosphere and having home-field advantage felt like it means more in the KC January weather

This means they're going to stop improving anything at Arrowhead, by 2030 maybe that experience is downgraded 

There was something special about the pyrotechnics and fly-overs and goodyear blimp shots that will be lost in the new dome

New Dome in Kansas

A new stadium should mean lots of bells and whistles and should be fun to experience

Will come with a new locker room, facilities, etc. that should help the players

In theory, could bring high-end events like a Final Four, etc.

Mahomes will be in his late 30's, perhaps a dome helps, idk

Seats will be more expensive, and they're already expensive

I basically don't consider going to December games because of the weather, so who knows

It goes without saying, that this keeps them in KC long-term and that's the most important thing, so for that alone, I'd rather them get this deal done then continue to drag out

Calcutta Update

Let's figure out the playoff teams. These teams are 95% likely, the only race being Panthers or Bucs to win the NFC South. 

AFC

Broncos - Mark

Pats - Dave

Jaguars - Matt 

Steelers - Dave

Chargers - Dave

Bills - Matt

Texans - Mark

NFC

Seahawks - Dave

Bears - Matt 

Eagles - Mark

Panthers/Bucs - Matt/Mark

Rams - Dave

49ers - Matt

Packers - Mark

Now let's sort by Super Bowl Odds

Rams - Dave

Seahawks - Dave

Bills - Matt

Eagles - Mark

Broncos - Mark

Pats - Dave

Could we get a rematch of Patriots-Seahawks or Patriots-Rams? Perhaps we could. The AFC is pretty murky. But I'm happy to have the top two teams in the NFC.

Closing the Book on the 2025 Chiefs

Hmmm.

Let's look at the 2026 schedule. 

The Chiefs face the AFC East and the NFC West. Seems like the Chiefs are gonna finish in 3rd place this year. Which means they'll get the 3rd place team in the AFC South, AFC North and NFC South.

Currently that's the Colts, Bengals and Falcons, teams that were hot this year or have a great QB or are the Falcons.

So they'll have a 3rd place schedule and a top 15 draft pick. And they'll have January off to rest and start the offseason 6 weeks earlier than usual. And the GM will have plenty of time to fix holes. Honestly, I'm fine with all of this. 

The things that actually sucks is Mahomes tearing his ACL, in mid-December, in the last few minutes. If he gets through another 5 minutes, maybe he sits the rest of the year with his existing knee soreness and focuses on 2026. 

- - -

We're the only eliminated team with a positive point differntial. 

The 10-4 Bears are +27. The 6-8 Chiefs are +60. The 12-2 Broncos are +81. 

- - -

Sorry, intrusive thought. Anyways, back to 2026. Kelce should retire. We don't know when Mahomes comes back, Week 7? Week 10 or 12? Say he comes back in November, will he be limited/bad on the run? His injury puts the 2026 hopes on ice. 

If I was playing a video game, I would tank, sit him for 2026, get a 4th place schedule and a top 10 draft pick and try to win the Super Bowl in 2027. 

- - -

So far, Mahomes has been mirroring Brady's career pretty closely, much like Rodgers has mirrorred Favre's. 

Brady went about 10 years before winning another Super Bowl, but then he did win 4 in the last phase of his career. 

So sure, I think Mahomes will contend for Super Bowls again, but it might be with an entirely different roster. 

- - -

All this will sort itself out. The only thing I have to think about is who I'm rooting against the most. 

The default over the last few years has been root against Allen, Burrow and Lamar. It's fun to have the best of the best by any metric. I don't have to worry about Burrow or Lamar this year. So just Josh Allen and the Bills. 

But then there's the Broncos. Can't let them get another Super Bowl, it's fun to have the most SB titles in the division. 

And then there's the Patriots. See most people might not care or think about them, but long-term...the Patriots and Steelers at the top with 6 Super Bowls. The Chiefs are at 4. So if Mahomes could get two more before he hangs up the cleats, that would put the Chiefs in the top tier, but only if the top tier is still six. 

The good news is those are the only three that would be a bummer. 

Also, there's a world where the Broncos or Bills experienceing a Super Bowl Loss hangover would be fun. But that's risky, ya know. 

The answer might surprise you, but the #1 team I don't want to win is the Pats. 

Mahomes has raised the bar to the point where we can eye the top tier status. 

#2 would be the Broncos but even if they got another Super Bowl, they'd still only tie the Chiefs. 

#3 would be Allen. He's still chasing Mahomes even with one. 

the chiefs just don't have it this year

I've long held that the Super Bowl Loss Hangover is one of the most devastating and consistent forces in the NFL. 

It's a fact that the worst finish for the Chiefs in the Mahomes era to this point (stops to crunch some numbers...wait this can't be true...hold on)

You're telling me that Mahomes has been a starter for 7 seasons and has gone to 5 Super Bowls, meanwhile Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have gone to 0? But the media tells me these are rivals? 

And the two that Mahomes didn't go to were overtime losses in the AFC Championship at home. Huh. Weird. 

Anyways, one of those AFC Championship losses was Mahomes first year as a starter, pre-Spagnuolo. The other was the Super Bowl Loss Hangover year. 

Given that the Chiefs lost the Super Bowl last year, it was to be expected that they would have a down year. 

The tricky, annoying thing is that throughout most of the year, the eye test has showed they're playing pretty well, better than last year, which again was a Super Bowl year. Here's the point differential of the top 20 or so:

The top teams by point differntial are all the strong teams, of course. The 9-3 Seahawks and 9-3 Rams are the teams you do not want to face in the playoffs.

And the #1 seed in the NFC, the Chicago Bears, has gotta be here somewhere, scrolling, scrolling, they're 16th in a league of 32 teams? So the Bears have the point differential of 6-win teams and the Chiefs and Lions havd the pd of 8-win teams. The Broncos have 10 wins and are two behind the Chiefs in pd standings.

I'm not knocking winning close. It's a skill. Last year the Chiefs had a knack for winning close games and rode that to the Super Bowl, so it works.

So that's what I mean by annoying, is that the Chiefs haven't actually fallen off and had a hellish season like the Giants or a mediocre season like the Steelers/Ravens. They've just come up short too many times. They just don't have it. 

- - -

There's also this:

Starting in Week 4, the Chiefs have won every home game and lost every road game.

Not sure if they've switched team planes or what, but cannot win on the road.

Here's their remaining games:

Road games against Titans and Raiders.

So maybe they can go 4-1 or 5-0 and make the playoffs yet. 

But also, they're going to be going on the road in January. So this trend of not performing well on the road confirms my priors--the Chiefs just don't have it this year. 

- - -

Everything I'm about to say in the next section, makes it look like I'm saying watch out for the Chiefs. And that's only like 2% true. There's a bigger point I'm going to attempt to make.

Let's go back to the 2019 season. 

Tom Brady's Patriots were 10-1 at Thanksgiving.

Lamar Jackson's Ravens were 14-2 at the end of the year.

The Chiefs were 7-4. Mahomes had missed two games due to a knee injury. He came back at the Chiefs still lost to the Titans.

We think that December means we know who's good and who's not. But there's still a lot of games left to be played.

a good virtual walk spoiled: part 12

This was my third time playing 18 on a simulator in a month.

A month ago:

1 par
5 bogeys

4 doubles

8 triples or worse

15 mulligans

total score 119

Two weeks ago:

1 par

5 bogeys

5 doubles

7 triples or worse

8 mulligans

total score 110

Today:

3 pars

5 bogeys

7 doubles

3 triples or worse

3 mulligans

total score 99

+17 on the front nine

+11 on the back nine

My only goal I've ever had was to break 100. Today I shot a 99 with several asterisks.

First asterisk: I did take 3 mulligans. All of those were water hazard shots.

So you could easily say I earned a 105.

Also, and this is a big one, I play it off the tee even on 2nd and 3rd shots if needed.

Also, I realize that the golf simulator does provide other advantages. One is that I can get in a good rhythm and hit three shots in a minute, reducing the amount of overthinking. It makes the mental game easier.

So I'm not here to make a big whoop-de-doo about breaking 100. But there were several good things that I want to hold onto:

1. My ball striking was much improved. A lot less chunked shots off the heel.

2. My distance has actually improved. My whole swing is better. Today with the roll, my driver was getting 175-180 on a good shot. A month ago my average drive was 143. I'm following through, which was a tip I wrote down here like 11 years ago. But in the last two weeks I've been passively absorbing some YouTube Shorts on golf swings and one thing I actually found myself employing and working, was at the top of the backswing, I was concsciously shifting my hips first to start the downswing. I was amazed how much that helped. Also, I did get a new driver and this was the 2nd time using it.

I also got a new wedge, a 56 degree and it improved my short game tremendously. This was the first time using it, and I was DIALED with it.  

3. I still left some scoring out there. On 11, I had a par putt that just lipped out but then carried past the hole. My bogey putt came up a few inches short. So I was real close to a par that turned into a double bogey. 

4. I parred the 13th. A par 4. I've only done that once before. There was a large bunker guarding the front of the green. I could have chosen to lay up, but I figured I was doing good with my wedge and the closer the better. (Now the funny thing is that the bunker limits it to 50% power. So a 20-yard bunker shot or a 40-yard fairway shot is the same thing.) My 2nd shot hit the bunker as expected. My third was a wedge shot out of the bunker that was 13 feet away. And I drained the putt. 

I still lack distance, but I managed to get bogey on two par fives. However, my accuracy has gotten better. As well as managing the correct distance when it's within reach. 

I had some extra time on the simulator so I tried a par 3 course. 

I know I used one mulligan on the 9th. There was water in front of the 9th green and I was going to have to carry 160, but somehow I carried it like 170 or 175 and it bounced into water behind the green that I wasn't even thinking about. I don't remember the other mulligan I took, but it must have been some other water shot.

Regardless, 5 pars, 4 bogeys, 2 mulligans. When the holes are not too long for my distance ability, I'm actually playing quite well. 

I Was There: Chiefs vs Colts

Chiefs vs Colts. 

A birthay present to go to the game.

First game with my whole family. 

The season hangs in the balance as the Chiefs are 5-5 entering the game.

Only my 2nd time seeing Mahomes. Last time was a loss vs the Colts.

Let's do this.

Before the game, I dragged my family to see the Lombardi trophies. The last time I was in this stadium was in 2019. I took pictures of the singular trophy. Nobody was around it. Nobody cared.

Well now we've got four. 

And it was crowded! Hard to get a good picture, but worth it!

Section 346, Row 26, Seats 1-4. Great seats. A little high and far, but I could still see well. 

Colts get the first posession. Helped by some penalties, the Chiefs force a punt. Mahomes takes over from his own 4 yard line. 

2nd play of the game for the Chiefs: ball tipped, interception. Colts score immediately. We're 7 minutes into the game and the Colts are up 7-0 even though the defense got a stop. It's a bad feeling.

Chiefs get a good drive going and make Red Zone Appearance #1. I'm really hoping for a touchdown before the end of the quarter, so it will be on the near end zone to us. On 2nd and Goal from the 4, direct snap to Kelce in shotgun. It's a weird feeling in the stands when they shift into a trick play formation. Lots of apprehension. 

It works Kelce keeps it and runs it. Touchdown signal. Fireworks. Flag on the play.

I warned my kids that this could happen and it literally ruins what would have been such an exciting moment. 

Not only does it erase the touchdown, but the 15 yard penalty ensures it will be a field goal. Colts up 7-3. 

Ensuing drive, Colts go 75 yards for a score with the help of a 48-yard pass. It's 14-3 Colts with 10 minutes to go in the first half. Feels like this could be a blowout.

Next drive Chiefs have a 4th and 1 on their own 43. Andy goes for it. Gets it. But it leads only to a field goal attempt. Colts 14-6.

Chiefs get a 3rd and 1 stop for no gain. 4th and 1 and the Colts line up for it. Crowd going nuts. Colts try to draw offside and they can't. Punt it back. 

On the same play Chiefs get a 17-yard Kelce catch and a face mask. Go from the 41 to the 12. Red Zone Appearance #2. Chiefs have 1st and goal from the 6. 

A touchdown here makes it a 1-point game at the half. 

But after a good drive, the Chiefs can't punch it in. Halftime: Colts 14, Chiefs 9. 

When you're at the game, all the stuff about the season fades away. You're not thinking about a playoff spot. You just want to win a game. The Colts were the better team in the first half. So many missed opportunities for KC. This could still turn into a Colts blowout, or the Chiefs could rally with the ball coming out to start the 3rd quarter. 

Chiefs go 3 and out to start the 3rd quarter. 

Indy gets a field goal. Chiefs face a 4th and 3 on their own 43. They're down 17-9 with 6 minutes to go in the 3rd. Andy punts it away. The crowd boos, they want Andy to go for it. 

Colts go on a 69-yard drive. They've got 1st and goal from the 7 but the Chiefs make a defensive stand. Colts settle for 3. Colts 20, Chiefs 9. 1 minute to go in the 3rd. 

I tell my family: this drive is touchdown or bust. If we get a touchdown we're still in this. If we can't it's over. 

42 yard pass to Rashee Rice makes Red Zone Appearance #3. There is hope! 

2 plays later, Kareem Hunt gets inside the 10 and fumbles. 

Colts take over. It is at this point, when hope seems lost. Win probabability says 86% for the Colts but honestly that seems low. 

I'm sitting here thinking we're not even going to see the Chiefs score a meaningful touchdown. 

So I'm kinda resigned to accepting a loss at this point. Chris Jones, however is not. He's on the field, and he's urging the crowd to get pumped up. And somehow, the KC defense forces a 3 and out. Chiefs return the punt to the KC 44. 

The fumble cost the Chiefs 50 yards of field position, but only a minute on the clock.

There's another personal foul against the Chiefs that wipes away a 20+ yard pass. 

But Chiefs keep going, make Red Zone Apperance #4.

With 8:37 to go in the game, Kareem Hunt jumps over the line and we get to see our first Chiefs touchdown. It was on the near end zone to us, great view for us. 

Prior to the conversion, Colts are up 20-15. I think you go for one here. My logic, very possible that the Colts still get a field goal. You miss this 2pt and then you have to go for a 2pt in that situation and it's too early to be chasing points. But I am not in Andy Reid's ear. 

He calls a 2pt conversion pass play. And Mahomes cooks with Rice. 

It's 20-17. I love it because even if we allow a field goal, I love the Chiefs down 17-23. 

The Chiefs D forces a 3 and out. 

Mahomes takes over down 3, 7 minutes to go. We live for this! 3 and out, punt.

The Chiefs D forces ANOTHER 3 and out. 

1st and 10 from the KC 6. 94 yards from glory. 

And on the first play it's a first down catch, except wait... penalty wipes it away. Romo calls it the worst penalty of the 2025 NFL season.

No problem. 1st and 13 from the KC 3. 97 yards from glory.

Incomplete pass. 

Ummmm, 2nd and 13 from your own 3. All of that work to get back in this game, and we're two incomplete passes from punting again. 

Here's who Mahomes throws to. I know it's blurry because of the whip pan, but there is a defender right behind Rice, and another in the vicinity if the ball gets tipped. Rice catches at close to full speed.

Here he is after the catch, looks like the Colts will get him around the 25.

Here he is 4 seconds later getting pushed out at the 50.

This went from a potential 3rd and long if tipped, to a almost in field goal range moment.

But we're not done with the drama. 

Noah Gray catches a ball as he goes unconcious. Sets up a 4th and 3 at the Colts 43.

Chiefs are going for it.

Some people see it as a high pass to Rice. Some as a low pass to Kelce who is 8 yards beyond Rice. Either way, Rice catches and now the Chiefs are in field goal range. Red Zone Appearance #5.

1st and goal from the 2, with one minute to go. Colts have no timeouts left. From here you could do worse than 4 runs up the middle. But 1st run loses a yard. Incomplete. Sack. 

Very nerve wracking knowing that any fumble or missed snap or missed kick and you're walking out with a loss. I can't believe they had 1st and goal from the 2 and couldn't punch it in.

Butker makes it. Free football.

I'm a little panicked inside that was the Chiefs best chance. If the Colts go down and score a TD in OT, it's a real regret moment. 

But somehow the Chiefs D forces another 3 and out.

Chiefs face 3rd and 7 from their own 24. An incomplete and we have to punt it away.

Mahomes steps up in a nice pocket and makes a pass to Xavier, worthy of highlight reels. 

And just a few plays later, Rice makes another catch to put the Chiefs in Red Zone Appearance #6.

After making us wait around for while, Butker finally kicks his field goal. So many things could go wrong, but none did. 

Final: Chiefs 23, Colts 20 (OT)

By the way this was my 12th Chiefs game at Arrowhead, first overtime game.

I know how bad the long walk to the car is after losing. Then you're stuck in traffic and it's miserable.

But on the other hand, taking my kids to the first game and seeing a win like this, this is something that could stick with them for the long haul. So this felt like winning a Super Bowl.

Here were the Colts posessions:

Punt

Touchdown (3 yard drive)

Touchdown

Punt (3 and out)

(end of half)

--halftime--

Field Goal

Field Goal

Punt (3 and out)

Punt (3 and out)

Punt (3 and out)

--overtime--

Punt (3 and out)

The KC defense needed four stops in a row at the end to give the KC offense a chance to win and that's exactly what they delivered. The Chiefs lost the tunover battle 2-0. Also got zero sacks. Just stops.

Here were the Chiefs posessions:

Interception

Field Goal

Field Goal

Field Goal

--halftime--

Punt

Punt

Fumble

Touchdown

Punt

Field Goal

--overtime--

Field Goal

Chiefs were able to time it so each team got 4 posessions in the first half, but KC got 6 posessions to Indy's 5 in the second half.

Oh yeah and one more thing:

Birthday Top Golf

So for my birthday, Mrs. Hoagie Central took us out to TopGolf.

Now if you notice, for football season, they have uprights in the field of play. 

Me and the boys played a bunch of different game modes, including Field Goal Challenge. Now, not everyone can hit the distance of the uprights 117 yards away. So they offer virtual distances. 

I let the kids play all their 10 shots on 23 yards away. 
I played the progressive at 5 distances, where it goes further back if you make a shot. I made the first 3 shots in a row, then it took me five attempts to make the 4th distance, something like 90ish yards. That left me with two attempts where for it to count it had to go through the physical uprights. Now the annoying thing was my 8th shot, actually went through the physical uprights. So that counted as a successful 4th distance, but did not also count as completing the full distance. 

One thing to clear up: all my shots were clearing 117. What is tricky is that the angle gets so much narrower the further the uprights get pushed back. 

Anyways so we moved on and played other modes, and then with 5 minutes to go, I was like I want to play field goal challenge again. 

So I set it at the full distance from the beginning and took 10 shots and couldn't make any through. 

Now I had 2 minutes left. One more round in me. 

I missed the first 5 shots. Some left, some right. I know these next five are my last chance. 

And then on #6, I could tell the moment it left my club, that it was going right through. With under one minute to go, I hit a buzzer beater.

42

Okay, so real talk, I've never read this book in full, or even seen the movie, but I've known about this particular quote for so long that I think about it, I use it, and live by it.

So as I turn 42 I hope to live in a way this year that proves the quote true.

Ironman Fantasy Football - Season 5 Recap

Entering the season, Mark and I had completed four seasons of Ironman Fantasy Football.

Arguably the finest accomplishment in athletic history. Could I make it 5-0?

Here were our week one starters:

Although the projections were only one point different, Mark took the first game handily. Worthy got injured on the first series and Egbuka had a debutant ball performance. 

In week 2, I lost by 12. Hockenson put up 1.5 for me while Kraft scored 21 on my bench. 

In week 3, I lost by 1.5 and almost any move I would have made differently would have given me the win. My other defense put up 21 more points, and I had 3 players outscore Kraft (who was in my flex spot this time) on my bench. 

So after three, I was 0-3, but thinking how I could easily be 2-1. 

The next five, were not as close.

Lamar Jackson got hurt and missed a bunch of time. Weeks 5 and 8 were winnable in theory, but my roster just wasn't that great. The rest of the time, Mark just steamrolled me. 

In week 9, Worthy and Kraft both scored under 4 points. But I still put up 153 thanks to big games from Drake London, Tee Higgins and Lamar. Finally, a win!

Then the next two games, Mark put up 160.5 and 148 to clinch his first Ironman title. 

The season is over at 10-1 with 8 games still left to play (week 17 counts as two games). 

In his final win, Mark's Josh Allen put up 48 points. He was on the bench. And Mark's wagon of a team still scored 148 without Josh Allen. Crazy. 

Mark drafted great players and they all stayed healthy. He had top players at every position, including value picks. 

I barely had any good players and they got hurt. 

Pretty simple when you look at it that way. 

The streak is no more. 

Simmons' Super Bowl Circle

Prior to Week 11 games, Bill Simmons annouced his Super Bowl circle, 8 teams that can win the Super Bowl.

Here were his Top 6:

AFC
Colts
Chiefs
Pats

NFC
Eagles
Seahawks
Rams

Then Sal and Bill added the Bills and the Packers.

Here's the current Super Bowl odds:

Kinda funny how Bill just put the Pats in the top 6 where they are 11th in odds. 

Anyways. 

If I had to make a top 8 right now to win the Super Bowl:

Chiefs
Eagles
Rams
Lions
Seahawks
Bills 
Colts
Pats

Those are my top 8. Basically I still think the Lions have top tier potential if they put it all togther and I haven't seen that from the Packers since like Week 1 or 2. Colts and Pats have to be in the mix because of their records, the #1 seed has such as easy path that either one is still a good ticket.

Ok, so one more time the top 8, with Calcutta owners. 

Chiefs - DAVE
Eagles - MARK
Rams - DAVE
Lions - MARK
Seahawks - DAVE
Bills - MATT
Colts - MATT
Patriots - DAVE

a good virtual walk spoiled: part 11

I tried a different simulator place in town and I liked this one quite a bit. 

This one notably included putting. The first hole I think I four-putted because I was getting the hang of it. It only gives a gimme if you get it inside 5 feet. 

Highlights from today:
On the 11th or 12th, I drained a 24 foot putt.

On the 15th, I hit a par with no mulligans. 

Last time's recap:

1 par
5 bogeys

4 doubles

8 triples or worse

15 mulligans

total score 119

Today:

1 par

5 bogeys

5 doubles

7 triples or worse

8 mulligans

total score 110

I didn't even notice that last time I scored a 68 on the front nine and then a 51 on the back nine.

Today I scored a 60 on the front nine and then a 50 on the back nine.

Now some of that is that in the beginning I'm always like "I'm not taking mulligans" but then you hit it into the water or something stupid so you take one or two, and then you get more comfotable taking them as the round goes on...I'm also playing Turtle Bay in Hawaii because it's cool, and it's got way more water than anyone like me has business playing, so I don't feel guilty about taking some mulligans.

But also I think it shows that I do play better once I'm warmed up.

My par last time was on a par 3 on the back nine.

My par today was on a par 3 on the back nine.

Last time my three worst holes were a 9, 10, 12.

This time my three worst holes were all 8s.

Anyways, +14 on the back nine is pretty good for me. Breaking 100 would be nice, and if I can play like I did on the back nine, on the front nine too, that would be cool.