HOPKINS

Week 9: Halfway Home

I got to listen to a podcast this morning hyping up the Ravens and Lions as the best teams in the NFL, talking about how it's going to be a Ravens-Lions Super Bowl. 

And listen, it makes sense. 

Any time you can crown a team based on September and October, it's going to work out! Especially if you can put all your money on a guy like Lamar Jackson who never gets hurt late in the season and always shows up in the playoffs. 💪

And that goes for the Lions too. This team is known for playoff consistency!

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But for real, I do think Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl is really on the table. If it is Lions-Ravens, I will be fucking fired up rooting 100% for the DETROIT LIONS to win their first Super Bowl.

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We're halfway through the season. Let's check out the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Texans

Likely In: Steelers

Up In The Air: Colts, Broncos, Chargers, Bengals

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Falcons

Likely In: Vikings, Packers

Up In The Air: The NFC West, Bucs

Likely Out: Bears, Cowboys

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints

So many teams seem crossed off. In the AFC, really just down to 4 teams looking for two wild-card spots. 

In the NFC There are 6 good teams, 5 bad teams, and the NFC West is totally up for grabs. Then you have the Bucs who were good but have been decimated by injuries. They need Mike Evans back if they have a chance of getting a wild-card spot.

Week 8: Undefeated

If you watched a single Chiefs game by itself with no context, you might think this team should finish 9-8. 

If you watched a single Chiefs game and throw in the context of Mahomes and Reid, Spags, the track record that includes younger players getting better as the year goes along, you might think this team feels like a 12-5 team. 

Right now they're 7-0. Every other AFC team has two losses. 

Next up they get a Bucs team without Godwin and Evans. After that it's Nix vs Mahomes in Arrowhead. Feels like Chiefs will be 9-0 when they go to Buffalo.

Bills should be 8-2 so it's a big game...but even if Buffalo wins, they'll be 9-2 and Chiefs should be 9-1. 

Bills have four in a row of Chiefs-49ers-Rams-Lions. Tough. 

So even though this Chiefs team doesn't look very good any given Sunday, I still think they're going to get the #1 seed. 

(They're not going to go undefeated and I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped a few games they should win, but still feels like they're on pace for 14-3 and the top spot.)

At this point, it's all about getting ready to play your best football in January and February. What a world to be in.

DHop to the Chiefs

I know everyone is supposed to have big hot takes these days, but I think this is pretty simple. 

We needed receivers and we got a good one. Past his prime, but only 3 years removed from being recognized as a top 10 player in the league. Three years ago I had him as the best WR in the game.

Always liked the guy and now he's going to be wearing red and gold, trying to do something historic:

Hoagie Central from February 2024:

Week 7: Byes Matter

The league added a 7th playoff team in each conference starting in the 2021 playoffs. 

Here are the Super Bowl teams by seed:

2021: AFC 1-seed, NFC 5-seed

2022: AFC 4-seed, NFC 4-seed

2023: AFC 1-seed, NFC 1-seed

2024: AFC 3-seed, NFC 1-seed

In this new era, here are your odds of going to the Super Bowl based on 4 years of data:

1-seed: 50%

2-seed: 0%

3-seed: 13%

4-seed: 25%

5-seed: 13%

6-seed: 0%

7-seed: 0%

Now some of this is noise and some of this is small-sample size. 

Some of this is more easily explained by narratives. 

But the fact remains that the 1-seed is far more valuable than it was in the 6-teams per conference era, and the 2-seed is far less valuable. 

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Through 7 weeks, the teams sitting in the 1-seed spot are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions.

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Ravens are now on a 5-game winning streak. Only 3 teams have a better record. That 0-2 start is a distant memory, and yet like some distant memories, it could easily haunt them if they don't get the 1-seed. The loss to the Raiders is ridiculous. 

The inevitable Jayden Daniels injury has arrived and now he's week-to-week. His absence threatens to derail the best turnaround story in the NFL.

Steelers swap the 4-2 Fields for the 1-0 Russ. I want to go on the record now, that everyone is praising the move because they beat up on the Jets, but I would have kept starting Fields and I don't think Russ will continue to impress.

The Saints fell off hard. The Panthers are awful. And now the Bucs receivers are injured. Maybe Simmons will hit his under 30 wins bet.

Key injuries are happening all over the place. The Texans need Nico Collins back.

Everyone acts like the Eagles suck, but I still think they're good. (shrug)

My hot take that the 49ers would miss the playoffs is looking pretty good so far.

The Bills have the easiest division I've ever seen.

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Let's take a look at the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Texans

Likely In: Steelers

Up In The Air: Colts, Broncos, Chargers, Bengals

Likely Out: Dolphins

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets

NFC

In: Vikings, Lions

Likely In: Packers

Up In The Air: 10 teams

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints

The AFC feels very settled with four strong division leaders and 6 truly awful teams. 

Meanwhile, the NFC is very wide open. If Jayden was healthy I'd have the Commanders as In but he's not. And even the Rams could go on a run if they get healthy. All the good teams are in one division. So weird.

Ranked Illinois Beats Ranked Michigan

And look good doing it.

Week 6 Bye Week

New Found Glory: Album Tierlist

I did this for Alkaline Trio back in February, and I found it helpful and enjoyable to re-listen and sort things out in my mind.

Let's look at this chronologically:

Nothing Gold Can Stay (1999) ★★★★★

New Found Glory (2000) ★★★★★

Sticks and Stones (2002) ★★★★★

Catalyst (2004) ★★★★★

Coming Home (2006) ★★★★★

Not Without a Fight (2009) ★★★½

Radiosurgery (2011) ★★★★½

Resurrection (2014) ★★★★½

Makes Me Sick (2017) ★★★★

Forever + Ever x Infinity (2020) ★★★★½

Make the Most of It (2023) ★★★★

Their first five albums were all five stars and they haven't returned to that level since 2006, but honestly 4.5 star albums in 2011, 2014 and 2020 is still great and nothing to complain about. They've experimented with different styles and still managed to be very consistent in quality. 

breaking

I have been appointed the Head Coach of the Hoagie Central Hockey Club.

Dave Fymbo, HC HC HC.

easy money?

There are two 5-0 teams, one in the AFC and one in the NFC. 

Would would happen if you put $100 on each one to make it to the Super Bowl?

Chiefs +220

Vikings +550

Derek Carr Update

One of my favorite bits of all time is this one:

Week 5 Proving Ground

So here's a snippet of something:

That's from October 2023.

Let's keep that in mind. The Bills looked dominant in weeks 1-3, then went to Baltimore and have looked like shit since then. They're 3-2 and just don't seem like a contender at the moment. 

Congrats on blowing out the Jaguars, but now they have losses to the Ravens and Texans. They're sitting as a 4-seed in the playoff race and are lucky they play in the AFC East. 

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The 49ers are 2-3 and having a season from hell? Who could have seen that coming?

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Let's check in on the worst teams in the league. 

I expected the Panthers and Giants to make this a race to the bottom. 

The Panthers are sitting at the bottom of the league, as expected with a 1-4 record. But they have some company. 

The Patriots, Browns, Titans, Jaguars all make sense. The injured Rams are there. And so are the team to beat in the AFC, the Bengals.

By points scored, the Bengals are 4th in the league!

By points allowed, the Bengals are 31st in the league!

They have a point differential of -5 with a 1-4 record. Really impressive to lose that many close games with a top-5 offense. 

I hope they start winning a few games to at least move out of a top 5 draft slot.

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Only 6 teams in the AFC have a winning record after week 5. That's kind of nuts.

Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, Bills are your division leaders. Then you've got Steelers and Broncos. Current 7 seed is the 2-2 Chargers.

Then you've got Jets, Raiders, Dolphins, Colts at 2-3. 

Then 5 teams at 1-4.

Meanwhile in the NFC, there are 9 teams with a winning record and the Saints could make it 10 tonight.

Only 2 teams at 1-4 in the NFC. 

song of the year

holy shit, is it 5785 already?

This is the perfect hoodie to wear when you're getting blown.

Assuming that you are a shofar.

Week 4 Observations

Jayden Daniels is HIM. 

Anthony Richardson is GLASS.

Derek Carr is who we thought he was. The Saints have come back to earth and now get a MNF game in Kansas City as their reward.

The Chargers played Herbert two weeks in a row with a high-ankle sprain, and came away with 0 wins to show for it. This is the flip side of Harbaugh. Instead of protecting your franchise quarterback for the long-term, you go all rah-rah we live for this moment and look where it gets you. In a couple years if he destroys Herbert, he can just bail on the Chargers. (Meanwhile, Andy Reid still won't let Mahomes take a sneak.)

One of these will be true:

• The Ravens and Bengals will both be 2-3 after 5 weeks. 
• The Bengals will be 1-4 and essentially eliminated from playoff contention. 

I'm good with either!

So Jayden Daniels. Great, exciting stuff. They've basically scored on every possession, three games in a row. But I'm not ready to buy the Manders as a playoff team yet. Their defense is trash and it's almost guaranteed that Daniels is going to miss a few games to injury at some point.

Meanwhile Anthony Richardson. He has played in 8 of a possible 21 games so far. In those 8 games, 4 of them he did not finish due to injury. But he was also pretty bad this year. The 2024 Colts are better off with Flacco. 

The Jags are 0-4. But at least they play in TrEver Bank Stadium.

After Week 5, every NFC North team will have a winning record.

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Let's take a look at the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Texans

Likely In: Ravens

Up In The Air: 5 teams

Likely Out: Broncos, Bengals, Dolphins

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns

NFC

In: Vikings, Bucs

Likely In: Lions, Seahawks

Up In The Air: 8 teams

Likely Out: Cardinals

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Rams

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Chiefs WR is back down to quality of last year. 

Moving forward they've got:

Worthy

Juju

Hardman

Justin Watson

Skyy Moore

Plus: Kelce, Noah Gray, Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine 

It's concerning to have Brown Rice (WR1 and WR2) go down for the season. We'll see if Veach brings in another WR this week.