New Era of NFL Playoff Win Droughts

Hop in a time machine to the 2015 NFL Season. This was the reality. 

There were 5 teams with 20+ year playoff win droughts. 

Bengals, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Bills.  

These were the dregs of the league. 

Since then, they've all won a playoff game. 

Browns: 1

Lions: 2

Bengals: 5

Bills: 5

Chiefs: 16

Some more than others. 

But now there's a new era of droughts. Look at the chart above from 2000-2009. 

Three teams have yet to win a playoff game: Dolphins, Raiders, Commanders.

It's now been 24 years for the Dolphins, 22 for the Raiders, 19 for the Commanders. 

After that, it's been 14 years for the Jets and Bears. 

Those are the five teams with a 10+ year drought. 

When that chart above was made, the Jets and Bears were on the right side of history. But time marches on. 

Not only are the Dolphins, Raiders and Commanders holding on to winless droughts, but they also carry the weight of 3-game, 5-game, 6-game playoff losing streaks. 

For the Dolphins and Raiders, not much I can say. 

But the Commanders have a chance to break this drought this weekend. Eyeball emoji eyeball emoji.

NFL Playoff Preview

First I have to just look at things from a Chiefs point of view for a bit, bear with me. 

We actually have to rewind to last week. 

This Bengals fan went on and on about the Chiefs and made quite a stir:

1. Without the very last post, it does not read like a bit. It reads like a butthurt Bengals fan. 

2. I don't care about any of this. What I do care about is that the logo and name seemed familiar. 

I went searching and I found this post, that I've referenced many times:

The same style logo, the same name, it's all so weird. So I poked around. These guys are BROTHERS. Joe is a Bengals fan, Glenn is a Bills fan. They both run websites for their teams. And Mahomes and the Chiefs are ruining both of their lives. 

It's so weird to me, because I identify with Bills fans. For decades I was a fan of the cursed team that couldn't win a single playoff game, pain and suffering were synonymous with playoff football and I kept coming back for more. 

SO I GET IT. 

I'm just ALSO going to laugh about it and toast my glass to my team and how they are now are destroyers of worlds. 

- - - 

Okay, now we're ready to look at the Chiefs playoff run. And how beautiful it is. 

It seems obvious that the Bills and Ravens will win their home playoff games this week. And then their reward is a grudgematch in Buffalo. Then the winner has to go to Arrowhead. Woof. 

There is mathematically no way for the Bills-Ravens game to be the AFC Championship. That guarantees that either Lamar or Allen gets to be labeled a playoff fraud for yet another year. Glorious. 

Assuming the Bills/Ravens win this week, the Chiefs will be hosting the winner of Texans/Chargers. Both are warm weather teams coming to play outside in Arctic Arrowhead against a very healthy and rested Chiefs team. Didn't work out very well for the Dolphins last year. 

If by chance, the Bills or Ravens lose this week, that's even better. Getting the Broncos or Steelers after an emotional win.

So we're penciling in the Chiefs for the AFC Championship in Arrowhead. Will it be the Bills or Ravens? I find it hard to believe that Playoff Lamar is going to go into cold Buffalo and win, but we'll see. 

Seems like the Bills will be coming back for a KC rematch which should be a good game. KC will be favored but not by that much. 

The path for Bills/Ravens to make it to the Super Bowl involves winning three in a row, which is a tall order. 

That #1 seed is just so valuable. 

- - -

In the NFC, there are a lot of questions. 

Is Jordan Love healthy? Is Jalen Hurts healthy?

Campbell told KOC that he'd see them in two weeks, but I'm not convinced the Bucs, Eagles and Vikings all win their games this weekend to make that possible. 

The Commanders have a knack for winning games impossibly late. Does that mean that will continue in the playoffs or does that mean they're ready to get exposed?

Neither the Bucs of Commanders really belong in the final 4 NFC teams but that's what we're getting.

Seems very likely we could be getting an All NFC North NFC Championship.

Anything can happen, and the defensive injuries are still a concern, but that #1 seed is so valuable. Gotta like the Lions with homefield advantage. 

- - -

Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl is a great storyline for the country and for Hoagie Central. Let's cross our fingers. 

The Top Ten of 2024

Another great year with a ton of travel and exciting accomplishments. It feels like I say that every year, but I guess that's a good thing.

Honorable Mentions:

My Deep Dive into Playoff Overtime Rules

Sportsbook in Vegas

10. Lions Playoff Coverage from Mark and Me, Twice

Who knew Detroit was even eligible to win playoff games?

9. Mark Fever 2024

Mark and I met up in STL for our best owner's meeting yet. 

8. Weekly NFL Column

I said I wasn't going to do this but I did it anyways. 

7. A Masterful Super Bowl 59 Prediction

This hasn't been proven wrong yet!

6. Five Years Ago

To really appreciate the Chiefs success, you have to understand what it was like before Mahomes.

5. Niraj Fever in San Diego

An incredible guy's weekend trip, one of the best!

4. A White Whale Update

I made new music that was creatively fulfilling. Fun!

3. At Peace

A very satisfying point to reach in my life.

2. The Chiefs Win Back-to-Back Super Bowls

18 posts documenting something I never even dreamed of.

but what could be better than that?

The Number One thing from this year. 

Best Movies I Saw in 2024

Time for my annual movie-watching roundup. 

I watched 100 movies this year.

47 I had seen before. 

53 I watched for the first time.

I intentionally tried to rewatch some of my favorite movies, leading the ratio being different than previous years.

Instead of linking to my reviews, I'm just including screenshots directly.

Top 5 Movies That Came Out in 2024

Honorable Mention to Trap, Monkey Man, and Argylle, which I liked even though everyone else hated it.

5. Deadpool & Wolverine

3. Hit Man (it says 2023 because it premiered at a festival, but it didn't get released until 2024)

3. Carry-On

2. Wolfs

1. The Fall Guy

Top 10 Movies I Saw in 2024

Honorable mention to Dumb and Dumber, Now You See Me, Lucky Number Slevin, Talladega Nights and Deadpool 2. 

10. 12 Angry Men

9. The Manchurian Candidate (2004)

8. Wolfs

(see above)

7. The Fall Guy

(see above)

6. BlackBerry 

5. Ocean's Eleven

(This is my review from a 2022 rewatch, but I did rewatch it in 2024.)

4. The Dark Knight

3. Anchorman

2. The Truman Show

1. Interstellar

Most Watched TV Programs of All Time

New Adventures of Old Christine did not make the cut.

So of the top two most watched TV shows, one was an American hero reaching the pinnacle of human achievement, and the other was some dude named Armstrong walking on a rock.

Week 15: Injured

Let's check in on the injury report:

Injury Report: 

Mahomes, Patrick. (QUESTIONABLE)

Lions, Detroit. (OUT)

- - -

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Broncos, Chargers

Likely In: none

Up In The Air: none

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Colts

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Vikings, Packers

Likely In: Rams, Bucs

Up In The Air: Seahawks

Likely Out: Falcons

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, 49ers, Cardinals

- - -

Concerns for Contenders:

Chiefs: Offense still not clicking yet and Mahomes ankle

Eagles: Can everyone just get along?

Bills: Defense and can they overcome playoff ineptitude

Lions: Injuries. Defense is decimated. 

Vikings: Is Darnold really going to go to the Super Bowl?

Packers: The path as a wild-card team

Steelers: Can TJ Watt and Pickens be healthy? Can they win the division?

Ravens: Can they trick Lamar into thinking the regular season lasts 22 games?

Eagles and Packers concerns seem the mildest. At this point either one seems like a good bet for the Super Bowl considering the Lions injuries. 

In the AFC, who knows what we're going to get? Josh Allen is the MVP but his defense is having trouble. I'm not betting against KC. 

DVOA says the Ravens are the best. I could maybe believe in them if they had the 1 seed, but they're not going to have it. 

Winningest NFL Coaches

Bill Belichick appears to be done coaching in the NFL. This opens the door for Andy Reid. 

Regular Season Only

Andy is averaging around 13 regular season wins a year. On pace to pass Belichick in 2027. Would take 5 more seasons at that clip to pass Shula. Reid is currently 66. 

Playoffs Only

Reid is 5 behind Belichick. Reid has added 14 wins in the last 5 years, minimum of 2 every year. Hard to count on playoff wins, but technically on pace to pass Belichick in 2026 or 2027.

Regular Season + Playoff Wins Combined

1. Don Shula, 347 wins
2. Bill Belichick, 333 wins

3. George Halas, 324 wins

4. Andy Reid, 296 wins

Averaging 15 combined wins a year, Reid is on track to become number one in 2028.

24 best memes of 2024

non-paywalled link

I figured out Super Bowl 59

Ten years ago, I had perhaps my best prediction ever. 

Two weeks before the Malcom Butler goalline interception in the Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl, I wrote this.

I've done it again. I've seen the future. I know how Super Bowl 59 will unfold.

- - - 

This season has been dominated by two teams of destiny, one in each conference. Two 12-1 teams on the verge of clinching the first round bye and home field advantage, who couldn't be different in how they're winning.

The Kansas City Chiefs are winning ugly and close. After two straight years of winning the Super Bowl, it's almost as if the NFL script writers got bored and desperate. Instead of just having the Chiefs win normal games, someone decided it would be more interesting if every week the Chiefs found a new way to win on a last second play, most of which might happen every couple of years or so in the entire league. 

The Likely toe on the game-tying TD

Getting pass interference on 4th and 16

Overtime vs Tampa

Blocked field goal to win

Botched snap by Raiders

Doink and in vs Chargers

Some call it Tayvoodoo. Some call it black magic or dark magic. Some say that the Chiefs have sold their soul to the Devil. 

I don't care what you call it. But you'd be a fool to ignore it at this point. 

On the other hand, you have the Detroit Lions. They are winning pretty and big. Point differential of +183 through 13 games, best in the league. Next closest is Buffalo at +129. (The Chiefs are down at +56. Which is third in the AFC West behind two teams with only 8 wins.)

Detroit is a breakthrough. Aesthetically pleasing and with the best motivational coach in the league, aggressive and tough. They are looking to go to the Super Bowl for the first time. And they're doing it in style. 

These two teams are destined to meet in the Super Bowl this year. And where is it being held? No other city than New Orleans, the epicenter of voodoo magic and the dark arts.

Here's how it will unfold:

We already know it's going to be a close game. The Chiefs don't know how to be in anything else. But every time, it hinges upon a new element. So there won't be any repeats. No toes on the line or botched snaps. No it will be something we haven't seen yet. 

I was running though a mental list of possibilities of unusual ways to win...when it hit me. The inverse of what we just saw. 

We were given foreshadowing a month ago. Bates, the kicker for Detroit, has a knack of kicking it just inside the uprights. 

Here's a composite of two kicks narrowly sneaking by the upright.

So imagine you take a kicker that does THAT, but instead they are kicking in the voodoo capital of the universe against a team that has mastered the dark arts?

The Detroit Lions will lose the Super Bowl by doinking a kick to the Kansas City Chiefs. 

You might assume it's a field goal, and it might be. But it came to me in my vision as a doinked extra point. The most aggressive team in the Lions will lose by going for one.

Week 13: Post-Thanksgiving Stretch

Well, the AFC playoff picture hasn't changed in two weeks.

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans

Likely In: Chargers, Broncos

Up In The Air: none

Likely Out: Colts

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals

The NFC is both easy and complicated.

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Vikings, Packers, NFC West winner, NFC South Winner

Likely In: 

Up In The Air: Seahawks/Cardinals/Rams, Falcons/Bucs

Likely Out: 

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, 49ers

We don't have a race for the wild-card teams. We have a race for two division winners. 

In the South, we have the Falcons and Bucs, both 6-6. The Falcons have a -34 point differential, while the Bucs are +39. The Falcons have lost three in a row while the Bucs have won two in a row. The metrics favor the Bucs. I remember rooting for the Falcons last year and it was awful. So let's say the Bucs win this division. 

In the West, the Seahawks are 7-5 but the Cardinals and Rams are lurking at 6-6. This whole division is a crapshoot. We'll have to put a pin in this one. 

- - -

Just for the hell of it...let's check in on the Burrowhead crew. The Bengals secondary coined that in January 2023.

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Bengals are 0-1 in the playoffs, missed the playoffs following the 2023 season, and are currently 4-8. 

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Chiefs are 6-0 in the playoffs, including two Super Bowl wins, and are 11-1 this year. 

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Bengals are 0-3 vs the Chiefs, including this year where the secondary committed pass interference on 4th and 16.

If you come for the King, you best not miss.

Week 12: On the Road

Huge win for the Chiefs. Anytime you can go toe to toe with a great team on the road, you've got to like your chances come playoff time.

Predicting Conference Championship Sunday

Sunday, January 26, 2025

2pm Central

Eagles at Lions

5:30pm Central

Bills at Chiefs

Week 11: Crunch Time

Let's just go straight to the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans

Likely In: Chargers, Broncos

Up In The Air: none

Likely Out: Colts

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Falcons

Likely In: Vikings, Packers

Up In The Air: The NFC West

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, Bucs

The teams that are crossed off are shit. The only thing that gives me pause is that it's hard to have 3 playoff teams from the same division. Chiefs/Chargers/Broncos all look like playoff teams but because they play each other, does that give breathing room to a team like the Colts?

Same story in the NFC. Lions/Vikings/Packers should all make it, but will they? Could the NFC West sneak two teams in?

- - -

Here's a thing. The media, podcasters and fans all judge a team by their offense. 

A team like the Bengals have scored the 5th most points. Everyone thinks this must be a playoff team!

The Chiefs have only scored the 13th most points. This team must not be a serious contender!

But the Chiefs have allowed the 8th least points. Bengals have the 30th best defense.

Let's check in on some other teams, all just going on points scored, points allowed.

Ravens: 2nd on offense, 27th on defense.

Bills: 3rd on offense, 10th on defense.

Lions: 1st on offense, 4th on defense. 

Now that's a championship caliber team. Here's the top ten teams sorted by point differential.

Lions and Bills fans, book your tickets to New Orleans. 

- - - 

For the fourth year in a row, the Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season. Devastating really.

We just can't beat the Bills when it doesn't matter.

- - -

Listen, all of these things I think are true:

The Bills could absolutely beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. 

Losing this game does take the pressure off the Chiefs from having to go undefeated and can focus on winning in the playoffs. 

I still think the Chiefs get the #1 seed. 

If the Chiefs get the #1 seed and the Bills come to Arrowhead, the Chiefs will be favored by 2.5.

- - -

Betting the Lions to make it to the Super Bowl is the best future bet you can make right now. 

That fact is nuts.

 

Even Chiefs Fans are Villains Now

One thing was different from this week in Vegas compared to the last two years. The treatment I got wearing my Chiefs shirt around.

Someone bumped into me, apologized, then turned saw what I was wearing, then said "You're a Chiefs fan, I'm not sorry."

It wasn't a one off. Other NFL fans were making comments and faces throughout the day. 

I had a waiter at a restaurant tell me he's a 49ers fan and jokingly said that my meal was going to cost triple the price. 

And then throughout the entire Chiefs game, there was a fan who was rooting SO loudly for the Broncos. He kept telling his group how the league is rigged for the Chiefs, how the league wants Mahomes to be undefeated, how every call is bullshit. He was a few feet behind me the whole game.

When the Chiefs turned and blocked the kick to win, I finally turned around to see the guy. In the moment, I didn't know what to say, so I gestured that we should high five to celebrate the Chiefs win. 

The funny thing was that I assumed he was a Broncos fan for 3 hours. But he wasn't. He was wearing Bills clothing. 

And look, I get it. If I was a Bills fan, I would fucking hate the Chiefs too.