In 2009 I tried to figure out if your record after 5 weeks is make or break for getting to the postseason.
Let's try something new, inspired by an off-hand comment on the BS Report.
I'm going to compare finishes to Simmons' first power poll of the season. Data from 2007-09, since he didn't do an early one last year. I'll take a look at the top 5 teams in the power poll and the final four in the playoffs.
October 5, 2007
1. Patriots (loses in Super Bowl 18-1)
2. Colts (2nd seed in AFC, lost divisional round)
3. Cowboys (1st seed in NFC, lost divisional round)
4. Packers (2nd seed in NFC, lost conference round)
5. Steelers (4th seed in AFC, lost wild-card)
14. Chargers (loses conference round)
19. Giants (wins Super Bowl)
September 19, 2008
1. Cowboys (miss playoffs at 9-7)
2. Eagles (6th seed, loses conference round)
3. Titans (1st seed, loses divisional round)
4. Giants (1st seed, loses divisional round)
5. Chargers (4th seed, loses divisional round)
13. Ravens (11-5, 6th seed, loses conference round)
16. Steelers (wins Super Bowl)
18. Cardinals (loses Super Bowl)
October 2, 2009
1. Giants (misses playoffs at 8-8)
2. Ravens (6th seed, loses divisional round)
3. Colts (loses Super Bowl)
4. Saints (wins Super Bowl)
5. Jets (5th seed, loses conference round)
6. Vikings (2nd seed, loses conference round)
- - -
Pretty interesting. Small sample size so hard to make many conclusions.
2 out of 3 years, the #1 power ranking team missed the playoffs. But the other year the team almost went undefeated.
2 out of 3 years the Super Bowl winner was ranked 16th or lower. But the other year the Super Bowl was #3 v #4 and the final four were ranked in the top 6.
In general, a strong start means you should make the playoffs but doesn't translate to playoff wins. Not the most groundbreaking conclusion, but what can you do?
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