Situational Football (Stafford's Play For The Ages)

With 22 seconds left, the Chiefs faced a 4th and 1 from the Browns 22, up three points.

I wanted them to go for it, thinking worse-case scenario, the Browns have the ball on their own 22, needing a field goal to tie, touchdown to win.

Best-case scenario you win the game.

I didn't want them to kick a field goal.

Worst-case scenario you have a blocked field goal, or a big return on the ensuing kickoff.

Best-case scenario you give the Browns the ball on their own 20, needing a touchdown to win.

(The Chiefs kicked the field goal and won anyways, because there wasn't much time left.)

- - -

Then I switched over to the Lions-Cowboys game. The Cowboys had the ball on 3rd down with about 1:15 remaining. The announcers starting talking about if the Cowboys hang on to win they'll be 5-3. They started talking about how it's their first winning record at the halfway point of the season since 2007.

In the moment, I thought that was a bit premature. Sure it seemed like they Lions would only get the ball back with 20 seconds left, but I've seen good returns and hail mary's work, especially to Calvin Johnson.

A play later, the Cowboys were in a similar situation that the Chiefs were just in: with a minute left they faced a 4th and 5 from the Lions 26, up three points.

The Lions had just correctly declined a penalty on 3rd down, realizing that the 40 seconds of play clock are far more valuable than pushing the Cowboys back 10 yards, even though it would make for a tougher field goal attempt.

The Cowboys choice was a little tougher because it's a 4th and 5 and there's a minute to go. They kicked the field goal and made it a six-point game.

Another reason that I don't like the choice to kick the field goals, is I'd almost rather be down 3 than 6. Of course, a 7 point lead is better. But a 6 point lead? It forces the other team to be aggressive. If the Lions were only down 3, it would have played out differently once they got to the 23. They might have taken a shot to end zone, but they would have been thinking about preserving their field goal attempt.

At any rate, that last drive with no timeouts was incredible. And the last play was one for the books, up there with Dan Marino's fake spike touchdown pass.