Predicting the AFC Championship Game

It seems very likely that both the Chiefs and Broncos will make the playoffs. I was hoping that if the Chiefs meet the Broncos it would be in the AFC Championship, as opposed to the divisional round. Denver is the biggest dragon to slay, I'd hope that would be worth a Super Bowl berth.

But it probably won't happen.

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The most likely scenario at this point would be the Broncos get the #1 seed, and the Chiefs get the top wild-card, #5.

In that case, the Chiefs path to the Super Bowl would be something like:

@ Ravens/Bengals
@ Broncos
@ Patriots/Colts

That's no fun. (It's also the same if the Chiefs fall to the #6 spot)

It would be possible for the #6 to upset #3. Perhaps Dolphins over Patriots. In that case, the Chiefs would face:

@ Ravens/Bengals
@ Colts
@ Broncos

If however, the Chiefs could win the division, that changes everything. If the Chiefs get the #1 seed, they would most likely face

vs Broncos
vs Colts/Patriots

or in the case of a #6 upset

vs Dolphins
vs Broncos/Colts/Patriots

That, of course, would be ideal.

If the Chiefs get the #2 seed, the Broncos couldn't be #1. So the path would likely be:

vs Patriots
@ Colts or vs Broncos

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It's entirely possible to play the Broncos in the AFC Championship, but not that likely. And reaching the Super Bowl will be much easier if the Chiefs could win the division. Those two games against the Broncos are going to be huge.