They're now both 9-1. Looking at Denver's schedule, I think they win their last 4 games. Their game next week in New England is huge. And then the following week at Arrowhead, is even bigger.
So we're looking at a Broncos team that I think will finish somewhere between 15-1 and 13-3.
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The Chiefs have a number of tough games. They could beat the Broncos in KC and still finish 12-4.
On the one hand, I think it's safe that they make the playoffs. Which is sort of crazy.
But, you play (and watch) to win a Super Bowl. The odds of that happening go down significantly if they can't win the division.
So it's not life or death, but I've been focused on staying ahead of the Broncos.
Basically, they must beat them on December 1. That will put level the tiebreaker and put the Chiefs 1 game ahead. Depending on how next week shakes out vs Chargers/Patriots, the Chiefs will know in 2 weeks what kind of cushion they have.
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Just for fun, let's assume the Chiefs beat the Broncos. What will the tiebreaker be?
First up is division record. The Broncos would be 3-1 and host the Chargers, visit Raiders.
The Chiefs would be 2-1, with both Chargers games and a Raiders game on the road.
I'm assuming the Broncos win both of those.
So now, the Chiefs need to win all three of those division games just to keep the tiebreaker alive. (Yikes.)
After that, it's common games. Long story short, all games are common except Broncos vs Ravens, Patriots and Chiefs vs Browns, Bills. So a Patriots loss doesn't hurt Denver here. And in order for this to matter, the Chiefs would have to lose a non-divisional game. Entirely possible that it could be even on this factor too.
Then you get to conference games. The only way this matters is if KC loses to Washington, it doesn't hurt them. If it gets past this, it goes to strength of victory, which I'm interpreting as point differential, which will go to the Broncos.
It's still a little murky...but I'm guessing that even with a Chiefs victory, Denver might own the tiebreaker. It would likely come down to divisional games, as I think Denver has an easier chance of going 5-1 than the Chiefs.
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All of that said, the Chiefs still can control their own destiny. If they go 15-1, they will win the division and get the #1 seed.
If they lose any games, it's very possible they lose the tiebreaker and will have to stay ahead of the Broncos, which means needing help (in the form of Denver losses).
This is probably all a waste of time. KC could very well finish 11-5 (though 13-3 always seemed like the right number, to mirror 2003) and Denver could be 3 games ahead of them.
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What happened last night?
For starters, no pass rush on Peyton. The whole plan was to hit him and get him out of rhythm. Apparently, you're allowed to throw the ball quickly, neutralizing our pass rush. Manning is well suited to handle even the best pass rushes.
Despite that, I'll take 27 points given up. I'd prefer 17. But 27 is the lowest Denver's given up and within the realm of possibility.
Here's what's not good enough
punt
punt
punt
fumble
touchdown
field goal (after 1st and goal from the 2)
half expires
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punt
punt
punt
PUNT on 4th and 7 at Denver 41 with 12 minutes to go, down 14 points
touchdown
turnover on downs
time expires
So let's add up the missed opportunities. The fumble was in the red zone, costing 3-7 points. Not converting the TD from 1st and goal from the 2 cost them 4 points. And then the punt on 4th and 7. It's not 4th and 7 from your own 23. You're at their 41. You need 2 touchdowns just to tie, and that's if your defense holds. (As it turns out, from that point the Chiefs needed 17 points to get to overtime. 12 minutes to play, you need 17 points. You're on the 41. You have to go. Instead the punt went into the endzone for a gain of 21 yards of field position.
So even with the offense sputtering with 6 other punts, the Chiefs were a couple of plays away from getting up to 27 points.
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So you're telling me there's a rematch. Even though it was a sound defeat, I think the game in KC will be different. The Chiefs may not win. But it should be closer.
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