Before this series, I had a prediction. That if the Avalanche lost it was not because they can't win by being outshot. I predicted a series loss would be because scoring rate or save rate would drop. So let's check in on those numbers for Colorado.
Colorado
Scoring
Reg. Season: 2.99 goals/game
Playoffs: 2.86 goals/game
Save Percentage
Reg. Season: .919
Playoffs: .906
Shot Differential
Reg. Season: outshot by 3.1/game
Playoffs: outshot by 8.4/game
Well, all three categories got worse. Scoring dipped. Save percentage dropped. And the fancystat got even worse.
Despite this, all four losses were by one goal (except for the empty net goals in Game 6).
For a more complete picture, let's look at Minnesota's stats.
Minnesota
Scoring
Reg. Season: 2.43 goals/game
Playoffs: 3.14 goals/game
Save Percentage
Reg. Season: .913
Playoffs: .885
Shot Differential
Reg. Season: outshot by 1.1/game
Playoffs: shooting more by 8.4/game
The Wild's scoring went way up, goaltending dipped, and their shooting differential skyrocketed.
Conclusions
Putting it all together, it's clear that the Avalanche had better goaltending in the series yet the Wild had better scoring. The only way that makes sense, is that they were shooting a ton more.
If the Avs could have maintained their rate of being outshot by 3.1 a game, it looks like they would have won the series.
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