Four months ago, I wrote down my season-preview thoughts on every NFL team. I feel like I did a good job, but only one way to find out.
AFC
Patriots - With Tom Brady and good coaching, this team is always going to be a Super Bowl contender. Can they survive four games without Brady? Yep. They survived and then some, earning the top seed in the AFC.
Bills - Tyrod Taylor, McCoy, Watkins...could the Bills actually be exciting? They were 8-8 last year, is this a wild card team? Their offense was good with a great rushing attack, but I don't think they ever reached exciting status. And with a broken defense, they didn't make the playoffs and fired Ryan.
Dolphins - Will Tannehill continue to be mediocre or will ever break out? Through 5 weeks they were 1-4 with their only win over the Browns. Then they went 9-1 and made the playoffs despite a Tannehill injury. Nobody saw that coming.
Jets - This seems like a clusterfuck. Will they look competent at all? Spot on.
Bengals - They were good last year but stumbled in the playoffs. Are they actually good or was last year a fluke? I feel like most people bought into them, and I deserve credit for not believing in them.
Steelers - They've been under the radar for a little while, but seem capable of manufacturing a deep playoff run. Will they? Fuck, I'm right so far with them.
Ravens - Even more under the radar, but also have a history of bouncing back. Could they surprise people? I think they did surprise people and were just a few inches away from the playoffs.
Browns - They're building something slowly. I doubt it, but could RG3 return to former success? What about Gordon? At least they won a game.
Texans - Will Osweiler actually be good and give this team the thing they were missing? Nope. Just like last year they win their division without having a QB.
Colts - Andrew Luck has got to turn into a top tier quarterback, right...is this the year it comes together? We keep waiting for Luck to carry this team to sustained success but it takes more than a QB.
Jaguars - They're still a couple years away right? Yep.
Titans - Is Mariota a bust or a rising star? Rising star! My Mariota stock looks pretty good right now.
Broncos - The returning Champs turn to an inexperienced quarterback. If he's terrible, how long before the defense loses faith? Denver was 4-0 and 6-2. Playoffs seemed like a lock and this prediction seemed silly. But spot on again. Defense did lose faith in Week 15: "Broncos defense turns on offense in locker room after loss."
Chiefs - Poised to take the division...can they execute? Can they get a playoff bye? They did make the playoffs and still have a chance for they bye.
Raiders - With Carr, they're going to be good some day. Will they contend this year? That day came early.
Chargers - How many great years does Rivers have in him? He was good in moments but doesn't have the team.
NFC
Cowboys - Is Dak the future? How good can Dak, Dez and Zeke be this year? Yes and pretty fucking good are the answers here.
Giants - Manning to Beckham. That seems fun. It was!
Eagles - Seems like a rebuild is underway. Yep!
Washington - Another year of Kirk Cousins, will we like that? Only occasionally.
Vikings - What could have been an up and coming team looks like a lost season. Uh huh.
Packers - Every year with Aaron Rodgers, they can be a Super Bowl contender. Yet he only has 1 SB appearance. Will he get back there? TBD.
Bears - How good is Langford? Still, yikes. Am I psychic or what?
Lions - Never won a playoff game with Megatron. How good can they be without him? TBD.
Saints - Will Brees win the passing crown on a losing team again? YES! Holy shit, why aren't I making money off this?
Bucs - Is Winston going to turn into a Pro Bowl QB? Nope.
Falcons - How much longer can Julio Jones be a dominant WR? This really wasn't the story as the Falcons offense as a whole turned into a barnburner.
Panthers - Can they return to the Super Bowl? Nope!
Seahawks - Can they return to the Super Bowl? Maybe!
Cardinals - They went 13-3, but Palmer and Fitz are getting old. Do they have one more playoff run in them? Nope!
49ers - They're bad, right? Yep!
Rams - How good is Gurley? What's it like to finally have a team back in LA? Not as good as we thought and fucking awful.
Tuesday, December 27, 2016
Sunday, December 25, 2016
The Greatest Present Of All
Chiefs are in the playoffs and eliminate the Broncos on Christmas night at Arrowhead.
- - -
If the Carr-less Raiders lose to the Broncos and the Chiefs beat San Diego, the Chiefs jump up to the #2 spot, earn a bye and a home playoff game.
It looks like Steelers will be #3 for sure and Texans #4.
If the Chiefs do in fact jump up to #2, they would likely host the Steelers in the Divisional Round (if the Steelers lose to the Dolphins, Chiefs would face winner of Raiders/Texans, neither of which has a QB.)
But what if the Broncos can't beat anybody or the Chiefs let down against the Chargers?
- - -
If the Pats let down against the Dolphins and the Chiefs lose to the Chargers, than the Chiefs could still drop to the 6 seed and have to go on the road to Pittsburgh on Wild Card Weekend. That would be terrible. But the Pats are fighting for HFA so I can't see them losing plus the Chiefs losing.
The other option is the Chiefs stay in the spot they're at...#5 going on the road to Houston to face Tom Savage in the playoffs, where KC won 30-0 in the playoffs last year. It's not really that bad.
In the divisional round in this scenario, the Chiefs would then have to go to Foxboro and even if they got by them, they'd have to probably go on the road to Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship. So that's...not great.
- - -
The way it shakes out, no matter what happens, the divisional round and AFC Championship most likely will include the Patriots and Steelers, the two toughest teams and worst matchups for the Chiefs. It would be nice to at least get the Steelers at home, and it's even possible (though unlikely) that if the Chiefs grabbed #2 seed, they could play 2 games at Arrowhead if the Patriots lost their first game.
- - -
The Dolphins, Raiders and Texans don't scare me at all. But I don't think that will come into play.
Thursday, December 22, 2016
Thursday, December 15, 2016
2016 Master Kansas City Barbecue List
Back in 2010, I claimed the Mount Rushmore of BBQ was Joe's, Jack Stack, Gates and Arthur Bryant's. I've been posting pictures and reviews of barbecue here for 10 years. In that time, new restaurants have opened and I've grown older and wiser. Plus, as a resident, I'll be able to really try multiple things. For convenience, I'm going to make this as a master post that will be updated, eventually ranked. This will keep track of what I've had and places I need to try.
To be fair, I'm wiping the slate clean and will only keep track of visits starting in 2016. The numbered rankings should be considered very flexible in the early stages, subject to change as I visit new places and revisit already ranked ones.
Just tried this place for the first time on 12/6/16. Mercy. The burnt end and ribs were stellar. Brisket and beans, also good. But I'm going back for the burnt ends and ribs. And the atmosphere/drinks is the best I've been to.
2. Q39
Visited their original location (on 39th street) on 7/15/16. Brisket and ribs were both killer. They're opening a second location that just happens to be minutes from my apartment. Weird.
3. Burnt End BBQ
Tried this place on a whim on 7/16/16, burnt ends and brisket, beans and fries. Burnt ends were the star of the show, hence the name.
Turns out my apartment is just a few minutes away from this place as well. Weird. Dropped in for the jumbo burnt end sandwich and fries today 12/11/16. Since I knew what I liked, I didn't feel pressured to get the 3-meat combo with 2 sides like I usually do when I'm trying a place. Great burnt ends and plenty of meat on the sandwich. I like their sauce assortment and nice atmosphere. Very chill.
4. Arthur Bryant's
Went with co-workers on my first day at work, 11/30/16. Didn't take a picture but had the burnt end sandwich and fries. Funny thing was I ordered the lunch special: brisket sandwich. But they gave me a burnt end sandwich. It was awesome, so I should be thanking them. Their sauce is distinctive, and I like it, but it's not my absolute favorite. Still, this is a classic.
5. Joe's
Was going to go here today but they're closed on Sundays.
If you ask around, this is many people's favorite place. For me it's always been solid, but never amazing. Had the brisket, ribs and beans on 7/14/16. I don't think I've had their burnt ends because they only serve them on certain days. I'll certainly go there but I doubt this will ever be my favorite place.
_________________________________________
Danny Edward's
Slap's
Brobeck's
Plowboy's
Jon Russel's
Woodyard
Blind Box
Roscoe's
Official BBQ Map
To be fair, I'm wiping the slate clean and will only keep track of visits starting in 2016. The numbered rankings should be considered very flexible in the early stages, subject to change as I visit new places and revisit already ranked ones.
_________________________________________
Places I've Been
1. Char Bar
Just tried this place for the first time on 12/6/16. Mercy. The burnt end and ribs were stellar. Brisket and beans, also good. But I'm going back for the burnt ends and ribs. And the atmosphere/drinks is the best I've been to.
Visited their original location (on 39th street) on 7/15/16. Brisket and ribs were both killer. They're opening a second location that just happens to be minutes from my apartment. Weird.
3. Burnt End BBQ
Tried this place on a whim on 7/16/16, burnt ends and brisket, beans and fries. Burnt ends were the star of the show, hence the name.
Turns out my apartment is just a few minutes away from this place as well. Weird. Dropped in for the jumbo burnt end sandwich and fries today 12/11/16. Since I knew what I liked, I didn't feel pressured to get the 3-meat combo with 2 sides like I usually do when I'm trying a place. Great burnt ends and plenty of meat on the sandwich. I like their sauce assortment and nice atmosphere. Very chill.
4. Arthur Bryant's
Went with co-workers on my first day at work, 11/30/16. Didn't take a picture but had the burnt end sandwich and fries. Funny thing was I ordered the lunch special: brisket sandwich. But they gave me a burnt end sandwich. It was awesome, so I should be thanking them. Their sauce is distinctive, and I like it, but it's not my absolute favorite. Still, this is a classic.
(gaping chasm)
Was going to go here today but they're closed on Sundays.
If you ask around, this is many people's favorite place. For me it's always been solid, but never amazing. Had the brisket, ribs and beans on 7/14/16. I don't think I've had their burnt ends because they only serve them on certain days. I'll certainly go there but I doubt this will ever be my favorite place.
Finally tried their burnt ends on 12/14/16. I've given this place so many chances over the years, and it never quite matches up with the competition. It's never bad. Just a 4-star place in a 5-star city. You can see it the picture. Compare Joe's burnt ends with Burnt End BBQ. See how uniform and cube-like they are at Joe's. They're dry. See how unique and juicy the ones at Burnt End are. I'm not eager to go back here. If I do go back, I think you have to stick with the Z-man sandwich. It's tasty, but I still think it's the barbecue sandwich for people who don't really love barbecue.
6. Gates
My only review for this place that counts (2016-present) is a bad one. I went on the way to the airport, so I went to the State Ave location on 12/2/16. Ordering was a mess. I got a beef on bun with fries and the beef was dry, and a weak portion. Unsatisfied. And then I remembered my other trip to this location was bad as well. So I'm optimistic that this is just a poor spot and I'll try elsewhere.
This one hurts. Just two years ago, I was convinced Gates and Arthur Bryant's were the two best barbecue places on the planet. And I thought if I could only go to one, I'd pick Gates. I had the burnt ends at my usual Overland Park location on 12/15/16. Disappointed. Just not in the same ballpark as Char Bar, Q39, Burnt End BBQ or Arthur Bryant's. Next time I go, I think I should stick with the Double Decker, but man...I'm wondering what happened. Was it just that nostalgia and vacation excitement blinded me in the past, or did it really go downhill? Either way, I'm not dying to go back.
(not ranked) Jack Stack
I've been to this place many times in the past and I technically ate their burnt ends at Arrowhead on 12/8/16 but I'm not going to count that. They weren't that good but I know it's not their real kitchen, I won't hold it against them.
_________________________________________
Places I Want To Try
Slap's
Brobeck's
Plowboy's
Jon Russel's
Woodyard
Blind Box
Roscoe's
Official BBQ Map
_________________________________________
I've gotten pretty good and being able to look at yelp pictures and tell if the burnt ends look good or not. This post was created 12/11/16, but I expect to edit and repost occasionally. And the good news is that even not-the-best barbecue is still pretty good.
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Friday, December 09, 2016
Raiders at Chiefs: I Was There at Arctic Arrowhead
I bought my ticket after week 1. The Chiefs and Raiders were both 1-0. My first night game at Arrowhead. I hoped it would have playoff implications. I assumed it would be in the 40s or 50s.
I booked a flight and a hotel for the trip, because those are things you would typically use. But I didn't use either. I drove my car. And on Wednesday I signed a lease on an apartment, becoming a Kansas City resident again, over 23 years since I left. Thursday I arrived at Arrowhead, not on vacation like I've done the last 5 times. This time, I was home.
Holy shit, it was cold.
They opened the gates at noon. There was a line of cars waiting. I heard people starting arriving at 8 in the morning. I had a 4 o'clock meeting and arrived at the stadium around 5:15. As soon as I stepped out of the car, I knew the cold was going to be a problem. I was wearing 5 shirts and 4 pairs of socks. But it wasn't going to be enough. I walked up the stadium eager to get inside, browse the Hall of Honor and warm up before kickoff. The gates are locked. I hear a security guard say they won't open until 6. That half-hour was brutal. I walked around just to stay warm but it didn't really help. Eventually I lined up. It took forever to get to 6. But even once they opened the gates, my line was molasses. Eventually at 6:15 I gave up and switched lines and was inside 5 minutes later.
By the time I get up the concourse ramps, it's 6:30. Pregame intro stuff will start at 7. So I didn't really have time to go searching for the Hall of Honor. Instead I bought some Jack Stack burnt ends outside gate 326. I ate them in the exposed air and was really weird eating something so warm in such a cold place. Burnt ends were just okay. I duck into an elevator vestibule to warm up. I decide to get a spiked hot chocolate and head to my seat.
The crowd would eventually be full, but even during pregame intros it was a little thin. I really wanted to get a shot of the flames going off. So I took a video and just now was able to pause and screenshot. Really happy with this.
Between the cold and the night game and the spectacle of the whole thing and moving here, I forgot for a minute what's on the line for this game. In the moment, it just feels like I hope they get a first down here, or get a stop here. But yeah, first place and the all-important bye + home game could be swung by this game. Easily the most important game I've ever been to.
The game starts and the Raiders go 3 and out. You're thinking how cold it is that it's going to be hard for either team to do anything. It might be a 7-10 game. They punt it away to Tyreek Hill and the crowd is geared up. And Tyreek muffs it. The ball is a frozen rock. Raiders get the ball at the KC 38. We're all deflated in the crowd.
I think to myself, "This is one of those games. Where there's going to be mistakes and drops and the game could be decided on one of those."
The Chiefs defense goes back and and stops them again. The Raiders get 3 points on a field goal but couldn't move the ball.
I should add before the field goal, it looked like Cooper caught a pass, fumbled, recovered by the Chiefs. That was the call on the field, and I watched the replay. I don't think there's conclusive evidence that he never had control. This was the first call that went the Raiders way.
At some point I notice that everyone is still standing. We were standing for the pregame anthem and everything and then no one sat down. It was like a college atmosphere. (Also, the seats were cold.)
Chiefs get the ball and face a 3rd and 10. And this game manager fires a deep shot to Chris Conley who makes the catch for a 39 yard game. Later it's 4th and 1 on the OAK 27 and Reid calls a Spencer Ware run. Looks like get got it but a short spot says turnover on downs. Another call goes the Raiders way.
A couple of punts go by and the first quarter ends with the Raiders up 3-0. They have passing and rushing stats on the scoreboard and I can see the Chiefs are up about 100 yards with nothing to show for it. Our offense was moving the ball better than theirs but because of the turnover, the Raiders have the lead.
But then Alex Smith fires another deep ball to Tyreek Hill running a post route. Steps up in the pocket, perfect throw, perfect catch.
It's 7-3 and I can relax for a second. No longer haunted by the muffed punt.
On the next series, the Chiefs get the first call to go their way. Carr scrambles on 3rd down and stretches the ball as he runs out of bounds but they call it 4th and 1.
There was a beautiful sequence on the ensuing drive. On a 1st and 20, Alex Smith scrambles, seemingly crosses the line of scrimmage than backpedals before firing the ball to Conley who runs for a 31-yard game. No flag is thrown. Someone on the field (possibly Kelce) signals to Alex to do a hurry-up to prevent a Raiders challenge. It takes the Chiefs about 15 seconds to run down the field and get up to snap the ball. Not only do the get the ball off without a Raiders challenge, but Khalil Mack is taking his sweet time walking down the field and is 10 yards offside.
Just beautiful awareness from the Chiefs and a lack of awareness by the Raiders. You know what it reminded me of? The last time Khalil Mack was 10 yards offside. Look at this shit from two years ago.
For the record, it was a good call by the officials as Smith's feet crossed the line of scrimmage but not his body. Linesman was in the perfect spot to call it:
A few plays later Chiefs would convert for a touchdown and it's 14-3. Arrowhead is feeling it. Feeling it so much that the Raiders start the drive with a false start. 1st and 15. They go 3 and out and punt to Tyreek Hill.
He's got that Dante Hall in him where he thinks he can break any return. He takes a punt, dances around and ends up losing 4 yards on the return. But there's a flag on the sideline. I notice it immediately. It seems to take the officials a minute or two to get around to acknowledging there was a penalty.
Reid has a choice. Add the 5 yards to the spot taking the ball at the 35 or rekick. He chooses rekick.
Returns are the most exciting play to see live. The Chiefs have had some good ones from Dante Hall's incredible streak to McCluster's TD on the opening night of New Arrowhead to Knile Davis opening the playoff win last year with a TD. But Tyreek might even be better than Dante Hall. So it makes sense that the crowd loves Tyreek Hill the player. (Not his incident off the field of course. It has to be said, by law any time you talk about Hill.) The crowd starts chanting Ty-reek, Ty-reek. We knew he had it in him. Here's what it sounded like if you turn your speakers up to 20.
And wouldn't you know that penalty proved costly. Tyreek Hill gets his second touchdown of the night and it's 21-3 in the second quarter.
In my head I start thinking greedy. I want there to be no doubt who the better team is. I'm thinking this could be 42-10.
Just the second play after Arrowhead was going ballistic, Derrick Johnson goes down with a non-contact injury. Fuck. Almost immediately we get word on the phone that it's an Achilles. Done for the year.
Players are taking knees and praying.
To this point, the Raiders hadn't moved the ball at all. But sure enough, that drive they get at TD right before halftime. 21-10. We've got a game again.
Even though it's a tremendous game, it's so cold that it's hard to enjoy it. At least, it's hard to forget about the cold. At halftime I buy a Chiefs Steak (burnt end cheesesteak) just to try and warm up. I figure something warm inside plus digestion would help. I go back to the elevator vestibule and the secret is out. We've got over 50 people crammed into this hallway.
Before I know it, halftime is over. Didn't really warm up at all. As I'm climbing up the steps to my seat, the crowd groans. I wasn't even looking when Alex through the pick. Raiders start inside the red zone but can't move the ball. Settle for 3. 21-13. One possession game. So much for the blowout I wanted.
Very next play. Khalil Mack strip sack. Turns out he does more than get offside penalties. Fuck. Again, the defense holds strong and forces a field goal attempt. But King can't get the snap down. He tries to run but nowhere to go. Turnover on downs. What a break.
Both teams would exchange punts. On 4th and 1 from the OAK 42, Reid sends in the power formation. Having already been denied once, the crowd is pumped to see him go for it again. But instantly I see the motion and realize this is just trying to draw them offside. The punt is downed at the 15, gaining 27 yards of field position by abandoning a chance to score.
In the 4th quarter, Chiefs force yet another punt and get the ball at midfield with 9 minutes to go, up 8. Just a field goal makes it a two possession game with under 8 to play. Just get a field goal. Or on 3rd and 10 Smith can throw a 4-yard pass. Come on. This is what drives fans nuts. He can make all the throws but then so often won't throw the ball to the sticks. Should mention this is also on Reid's playcalling, not just Smith.
So Raiders get the ball with everything on the line. They need to go 85 yards for a TD + 2 point conversion. Just like the Chiefs did in Denver not too long ago. 7 minutes to go.
On 1st and 10 from their 39, Carr throws it toward Crabtree who is well-covered by Nelson. And the refs call pass interference. I'm just going to say it: That call was baloney!
With 3 minutes left, the Raiders face a 4th and 4. Arrowhead is rocking. And the Raiders convert.
Very next set of downs. 3rd and 1 from the KC 14. Incomplete. 4th and 1. They've been running well ever since Johnson got sidelined. Arrowhead ramps it up for 4th down...and it's a false start. So now it's 4th and 6. Carr goes to the air and...
Terrance Mitchell swats it away. Turnover on downs.
But the Raiders have 2 timeouts. Chiefs need a first down to seal the deal. 3rd and 2. Two yards to glory. And Spencer Ware comes up with it! Exactly two yards. Bring on Victory Formation. Holy shit.
Sweet Christ, I'm frozen at this point.
- - -
As I'm walking out, the importance of the game really hits you. The idea that Chiefs could get that bye and guarantee a playoff game at Arrowhead! The last two playoff games at Arrowhead were 2010 and 2003, both losses.
- - -
Drives for the Raiders
3 (punt)
12 (FG)
-3 (punt)
6 (punt)
9 (punt)
-2 (punt)
92 (TD after Johnson injured)
halftime
4 (FG)
-2 (botched FG snap)
11 (punt)
26 (punt)
15 (punt)
66 (turnover on downs)
Drives for the Chiefs
48 (turnover on downs)
21 (punt)
70 (TD - pass to Hill)
78 (TD - run by West)
(TD - Hill punt return)
halftime
5 (INT)
-6 (fumble)
25 (punt)
15 (punt)
49 (punt)
4 (punt)
10 (victory formation)
Chiefs were moving the ball better than the Raiders all game. Chiefs D was incredible holding the Raiders to 6 points after 3 turnovers in KC territory. The Chiefs win by winning the turnover battle. This game they lost that 0-3 and were in control of most of the game.
- - -
9-game winning streak against AFC West opponents.
5-game winning streak against the Raiders.
Even broke the Al Michaels curse.
Good times to be in Kansas City.
I booked a flight and a hotel for the trip, because those are things you would typically use. But I didn't use either. I drove my car. And on Wednesday I signed a lease on an apartment, becoming a Kansas City resident again, over 23 years since I left. Thursday I arrived at Arrowhead, not on vacation like I've done the last 5 times. This time, I was home.
Holy shit, it was cold.
They opened the gates at noon. There was a line of cars waiting. I heard people starting arriving at 8 in the morning. I had a 4 o'clock meeting and arrived at the stadium around 5:15. As soon as I stepped out of the car, I knew the cold was going to be a problem. I was wearing 5 shirts and 4 pairs of socks. But it wasn't going to be enough. I walked up the stadium eager to get inside, browse the Hall of Honor and warm up before kickoff. The gates are locked. I hear a security guard say they won't open until 6. That half-hour was brutal. I walked around just to stay warm but it didn't really help. Eventually I lined up. It took forever to get to 6. But even once they opened the gates, my line was molasses. Eventually at 6:15 I gave up and switched lines and was inside 5 minutes later.
Raiders fan in front of me set off the metal detector and nobody stopped him. So watch out for that guy. @ArrowheadPride @TerezPaylor— Dave Fymbo (@davefymbo) December 9, 2016
By the time I get up the concourse ramps, it's 6:30. Pregame intro stuff will start at 7. So I didn't really have time to go searching for the Hall of Honor. Instead I bought some Jack Stack burnt ends outside gate 326. I ate them in the exposed air and was really weird eating something so warm in such a cold place. Burnt ends were just okay. I duck into an elevator vestibule to warm up. I decide to get a spiked hot chocolate and head to my seat.
The crowd would eventually be full, but even during pregame intros it was a little thin. I really wanted to get a shot of the flames going off. So I took a video and just now was able to pause and screenshot. Really happy with this.
Between the cold and the night game and the spectacle of the whole thing and moving here, I forgot for a minute what's on the line for this game. In the moment, it just feels like I hope they get a first down here, or get a stop here. But yeah, first place and the all-important bye + home game could be swung by this game. Easily the most important game I've ever been to.
The game starts and the Raiders go 3 and out. You're thinking how cold it is that it's going to be hard for either team to do anything. It might be a 7-10 game. They punt it away to Tyreek Hill and the crowd is geared up. And Tyreek muffs it. The ball is a frozen rock. Raiders get the ball at the KC 38. We're all deflated in the crowd.
I think to myself, "This is one of those games. Where there's going to be mistakes and drops and the game could be decided on one of those."
The Chiefs defense goes back and and stops them again. The Raiders get 3 points on a field goal but couldn't move the ball.
I should add before the field goal, it looked like Cooper caught a pass, fumbled, recovered by the Chiefs. That was the call on the field, and I watched the replay. I don't think there's conclusive evidence that he never had control. This was the first call that went the Raiders way.
At some point I notice that everyone is still standing. We were standing for the pregame anthem and everything and then no one sat down. It was like a college atmosphere. (Also, the seats were cold.)
Chiefs get the ball and face a 3rd and 10. And this game manager fires a deep shot to Chris Conley who makes the catch for a 39 yard game. Later it's 4th and 1 on the OAK 27 and Reid calls a Spencer Ware run. Looks like get got it but a short spot says turnover on downs. Another call goes the Raiders way.
A couple of punts go by and the first quarter ends with the Raiders up 3-0. They have passing and rushing stats on the scoreboard and I can see the Chiefs are up about 100 yards with nothing to show for it. Our offense was moving the ball better than theirs but because of the turnover, the Raiders have the lead.
But then Alex Smith fires another deep ball to Tyreek Hill running a post route. Steps up in the pocket, perfect throw, perfect catch.
It's 7-3 and I can relax for a second. No longer haunted by the muffed punt.
On the next series, the Chiefs get the first call to go their way. Carr scrambles on 3rd down and stretches the ball as he runs out of bounds but they call it 4th and 1.
There was a beautiful sequence on the ensuing drive. On a 1st and 20, Alex Smith scrambles, seemingly crosses the line of scrimmage than backpedals before firing the ball to Conley who runs for a 31-yard game. No flag is thrown. Someone on the field (possibly Kelce) signals to Alex to do a hurry-up to prevent a Raiders challenge. It takes the Chiefs about 15 seconds to run down the field and get up to snap the ball. Not only do the get the ball off without a Raiders challenge, but Khalil Mack is taking his sweet time walking down the field and is 10 yards offside.
Just beautiful awareness from the Chiefs and a lack of awareness by the Raiders. You know what it reminded me of? The last time Khalil Mack was 10 yards offside. Look at this shit from two years ago.
For the record, it was a good call by the officials as Smith's feet crossed the line of scrimmage but not his body. Linesman was in the perfect spot to call it:
A few plays later Chiefs would convert for a touchdown and it's 14-3. Arrowhead is feeling it. Feeling it so much that the Raiders start the drive with a false start. 1st and 15. They go 3 and out and punt to Tyreek Hill.
He's got that Dante Hall in him where he thinks he can break any return. He takes a punt, dances around and ends up losing 4 yards on the return. But there's a flag on the sideline. I notice it immediately. It seems to take the officials a minute or two to get around to acknowledging there was a penalty.
Reid has a choice. Add the 5 yards to the spot taking the ball at the 35 or rekick. He chooses rekick.
Returns are the most exciting play to see live. The Chiefs have had some good ones from Dante Hall's incredible streak to McCluster's TD on the opening night of New Arrowhead to Knile Davis opening the playoff win last year with a TD. But Tyreek might even be better than Dante Hall. So it makes sense that the crowd loves Tyreek Hill the player. (Not his incident off the field of course. It has to be said, by law any time you talk about Hill.) The crowd starts chanting Ty-reek, Ty-reek. We knew he had it in him. Here's what it sounded like if you turn your speakers up to 20.
And wouldn't you know that penalty proved costly. Tyreek Hill gets his second touchdown of the night and it's 21-3 in the second quarter.
In my head I start thinking greedy. I want there to be no doubt who the better team is. I'm thinking this could be 42-10.
Just the second play after Arrowhead was going ballistic, Derrick Johnson goes down with a non-contact injury. Fuck. Almost immediately we get word on the phone that it's an Achilles. Done for the year.
Players are taking knees and praying.
To this point, the Raiders hadn't moved the ball at all. But sure enough, that drive they get at TD right before halftime. 21-10. We've got a game again.
Even though it's a tremendous game, it's so cold that it's hard to enjoy it. At least, it's hard to forget about the cold. At halftime I buy a Chiefs Steak (burnt end cheesesteak) just to try and warm up. I figure something warm inside plus digestion would help. I go back to the elevator vestibule and the secret is out. We've got over 50 people crammed into this hallway.
Before I know it, halftime is over. Didn't really warm up at all. As I'm climbing up the steps to my seat, the crowd groans. I wasn't even looking when Alex through the pick. Raiders start inside the red zone but can't move the ball. Settle for 3. 21-13. One possession game. So much for the blowout I wanted.
Very next play. Khalil Mack strip sack. Turns out he does more than get offside penalties. Fuck. Again, the defense holds strong and forces a field goal attempt. But King can't get the snap down. He tries to run but nowhere to go. Turnover on downs. What a break.
Both teams would exchange punts. On 4th and 1 from the OAK 42, Reid sends in the power formation. Having already been denied once, the crowd is pumped to see him go for it again. But instantly I see the motion and realize this is just trying to draw them offside. The punt is downed at the 15, gaining 27 yards of field position by abandoning a chance to score.
In the 4th quarter, Chiefs force yet another punt and get the ball at midfield with 9 minutes to go, up 8. Just a field goal makes it a two possession game with under 8 to play. Just get a field goal. Or on 3rd and 10 Smith can throw a 4-yard pass. Come on. This is what drives fans nuts. He can make all the throws but then so often won't throw the ball to the sticks. Should mention this is also on Reid's playcalling, not just Smith.
So Raiders get the ball with everything on the line. They need to go 85 yards for a TD + 2 point conversion. Just like the Chiefs did in Denver not too long ago. 7 minutes to go.
On 1st and 10 from their 39, Carr throws it toward Crabtree who is well-covered by Nelson. And the refs call pass interference. I'm just going to say it: That call was baloney!
With 3 minutes left, the Raiders face a 4th and 4. Arrowhead is rocking. And the Raiders convert.
Very next set of downs. 3rd and 1 from the KC 14. Incomplete. 4th and 1. They've been running well ever since Johnson got sidelined. Arrowhead ramps it up for 4th down...and it's a false start. So now it's 4th and 6. Carr goes to the air and...
Terrance Mitchell swats it away. Turnover on downs.
But the Raiders have 2 timeouts. Chiefs need a first down to seal the deal. 3rd and 2. Two yards to glory. And Spencer Ware comes up with it! Exactly two yards. Bring on Victory Formation. Holy shit.
Sweet Christ, I'm frozen at this point.
- - -
As I'm walking out, the importance of the game really hits you. The idea that Chiefs could get that bye and guarantee a playoff game at Arrowhead! The last two playoff games at Arrowhead were 2010 and 2003, both losses.
- - -
Drives for the Raiders
3 (punt)
12 (FG)
-3 (punt)
6 (punt)
9 (punt)
-2 (punt)
92 (TD after Johnson injured)
halftime
4 (FG)
-2 (botched FG snap)
11 (punt)
26 (punt)
15 (punt)
66 (turnover on downs)
Drives for the Chiefs
48 (turnover on downs)
21 (punt)
70 (TD - pass to Hill)
78 (TD - run by West)
(TD - Hill punt return)
halftime
5 (INT)
-6 (fumble)
25 (punt)
15 (punt)
49 (punt)
4 (punt)
10 (victory formation)
Chiefs were moving the ball better than the Raiders all game. Chiefs D was incredible holding the Raiders to 6 points after 3 turnovers in KC territory. The Chiefs win by winning the turnover battle. This game they lost that 0-3 and were in control of most of the game.
- - -
9-game winning streak against AFC West opponents.
5-game winning streak against the Raiders.
Even broke the Al Michaels curse.
Good times to be in Kansas City.
Wednesday, December 07, 2016
Tuesday, December 06, 2016
Sunday, December 04, 2016
Chiefs Do It Again
The best Chiefs seasons I've seen were 2003 (started 9-0, Dante Hall return TDs, finished 13-3 with a bye) and 2015 (10 game winning streak to make the playoffs and 30-0 win over Texans in playoffs).
This year has potential to top both.
Currently 9-3 and 3-0 in the division, this year has been filled with more memorable wins than any other season.
Here's my ranking of the wins, in terms of most exciting, memorable, important:
1. Broncos
2. Chargers
3. Falcons
4. Panthers
5. Raiders
6. Saints
7. Colts
8. Jets
9. Jags
What's remarkable is that a road victory over the Colts, avenging the demons of the 45-44 playoff loss is only 7th on this list. A physical, solid game over the division-leading Raiders is only 5th on this list.
The first four wins on this list were simply incredible, must-watch games. The kind of games that you're lucky to get one a year. I wrote about the Broncos last week and the Chargers back in September. I mean the Chiefs were down 17 with 11 minutes to go and threw an interception. You're not supposed to win when that happens.
I never wrote about the Panthers game but it too was incredible. The defending NFC Champs were up 17-0 in the second quarter. A KC field goal before the half made it 17-3. With 12 minutes to go in the game, the Chiefs settle for a field goal attempt on 4th and 10 from the Carolina 18. That kick turned a two possession game into a two possession game and I'm never a fan of scores like that. But Andy Reid's decision was vindicated when ERIC BERRY gets a pick six and now it's 17-14. Chiefs D forces a punt and with 5 minutes to go it looks like KC will drive for the win. They end up settling for a field goal, tying it up with 4 to play. Then you start worrying. All Carolina needs is a field goal win, they can drive down, run the clock and kick and we won't get the ball back, etc. But I didn't really need to worry. Because MARCUS PETERS will just take the ball away from you. (He also punts it costing the team 5 yards and giving me a heart attack because I thought it would be a 15-yard penalty.) So that comeback win down from 17-0 against a Super Bowl team is only 4th on the list this year. Jesus Christ.
Because today...
- - -
Chiefs came into this one as 3.5 point underdogs against an awesome Atlanta Falcons offense in the Georgia Dome. And boy this one looked like it was getting away from the Chiefs. Atlanta was carving them up early. Julio Jones getting wide open. Moving down the field with ease on first three drives. But the Chiefs red zone defense is something special. After missing an extra point they were down 7-6. The red zone D limits the damage to 2 field goals and it's only 13-6 when it could easily be 21-6. The Chiefs offense scored on an 4th and 1 and when it's 13-13, ERIC BERRY comes up with a pick six just like he did to turn the Panthers game around. When it's 20-16, Andy Reid sends out his offense on a 4th and 1. Atlanta burns a timeout early in the 3rd quarter. After the timeout, Reid lines up for the punt...but it's a fake! TD! Holy crap. Andy Reid inherited a 2-14 football team. He's a really really good coach.
It's now 27-16. Chiefs end up getting a 4th down stop in the 3rd. Maybe Atlanta wishes they got those three points? The Falcons get the ball back and get a TD with 12 minutes left in the game. Down 22-27 they go for two. But there's 12 minutes left. They get stopped. Maybe they wish they had an extra point? Falcons force a punt and end up scoring a TD with 4 minutes left. They finally retake the lead 28-27. Now it makes sense to go for two because they're chasing the points left behind earlier.
And this happens.
ERIC BERRY! His second return of the game! He returned from freaking cancer and basically won the Panthers game and Falcons game for us. Time to get out the checkbook and pay the man.
Also, could the announcers be more clueless on that last highlight? It's a play that swung the lead and they don't give a shit or even realize that Berry's about to give the Chiefs the lead.
So now instead of needing to drive down the field for a score, the Chiefs just have to run out the clock. Made easier by the timeout Atlanta burned not being ready on the fake punt sequence. Chiefs convert two first downs and run it out. 29-28 win. Sooooo good.
- - -
This team has an identity. They can be scored upon early, but their red zone defense is stout and rise to the occasion, especially in the second half.
They protect the ball on offense and can come up with clutch offensive drives late. The no-huddle is particularly effective.
They can count on big plays from the defense and special teams. They aren't flukes. They happen almost every game. Well coached.
And overall, they never say die. They are Royalesque with their ability to make things happen late.
Some of this defies their reputation. Critics will say this isn't a team built to make comebacks because of the Alex Smith offense isn't suited for that. And yet the comeback wins keep piling up. Critics say the Chiefs aren't a fun team to watch, because Alex Smith checks down a lot, don't have big name running backs or receivers, etc. And yet anybody that saw the Chiefs play Denver or Atlanta got their money's worth and then some. Exciting, awesome football being played.
- - -
After their first win of the year, I bought tickets to a game. I've never been to a night game and I thought that going on Thursday would be easier on Brit since I normally have the kids for most of the weekend. So I bought tickets to the Thursday Night Game. 10-2 Raiders at 9-3 Chiefs. Arrowhead Stadium at night against the Raiders? Winner takes first place and sits in line for the bye? The place will be rocking. Holy shit. Let's keep it going.
This year has potential to top both.
Currently 9-3 and 3-0 in the division, this year has been filled with more memorable wins than any other season.
Here's my ranking of the wins, in terms of most exciting, memorable, important:
1. Broncos
2. Chargers
3. Falcons
4. Panthers
5. Raiders
6. Saints
7. Colts
8. Jets
9. Jags
What's remarkable is that a road victory over the Colts, avenging the demons of the 45-44 playoff loss is only 7th on this list. A physical, solid game over the division-leading Raiders is only 5th on this list.
The first four wins on this list were simply incredible, must-watch games. The kind of games that you're lucky to get one a year. I wrote about the Broncos last week and the Chargers back in September. I mean the Chiefs were down 17 with 11 minutes to go and threw an interception. You're not supposed to win when that happens.
I never wrote about the Panthers game but it too was incredible. The defending NFC Champs were up 17-0 in the second quarter. A KC field goal before the half made it 17-3. With 12 minutes to go in the game, the Chiefs settle for a field goal attempt on 4th and 10 from the Carolina 18. That kick turned a two possession game into a two possession game and I'm never a fan of scores like that. But Andy Reid's decision was vindicated when ERIC BERRY gets a pick six and now it's 17-14. Chiefs D forces a punt and with 5 minutes to go it looks like KC will drive for the win. They end up settling for a field goal, tying it up with 4 to play. Then you start worrying. All Carolina needs is a field goal win, they can drive down, run the clock and kick and we won't get the ball back, etc. But I didn't really need to worry. Because MARCUS PETERS will just take the ball away from you. (He also punts it costing the team 5 yards and giving me a heart attack because I thought it would be a 15-yard penalty.) So that comeback win down from 17-0 against a Super Bowl team is only 4th on the list this year. Jesus Christ.
Because today...
- - -
Chiefs came into this one as 3.5 point underdogs against an awesome Atlanta Falcons offense in the Georgia Dome. And boy this one looked like it was getting away from the Chiefs. Atlanta was carving them up early. Julio Jones getting wide open. Moving down the field with ease on first three drives. But the Chiefs red zone defense is something special. After missing an extra point they were down 7-6. The red zone D limits the damage to 2 field goals and it's only 13-6 when it could easily be 21-6. The Chiefs offense scored on an 4th and 1 and when it's 13-13, ERIC BERRY comes up with a pick six just like he did to turn the Panthers game around. When it's 20-16, Andy Reid sends out his offense on a 4th and 1. Atlanta burns a timeout early in the 3rd quarter. After the timeout, Reid lines up for the punt...but it's a fake! TD! Holy crap. Andy Reid inherited a 2-14 football team. He's a really really good coach.
It's now 27-16. Chiefs end up getting a 4th down stop in the 3rd. Maybe Atlanta wishes they got those three points? The Falcons get the ball back and get a TD with 12 minutes left in the game. Down 22-27 they go for two. But there's 12 minutes left. They get stopped. Maybe they wish they had an extra point? Falcons force a punt and end up scoring a TD with 4 minutes left. They finally retake the lead 28-27. Now it makes sense to go for two because they're chasing the points left behind earlier.
And this happens.
ERIC BERRY! His second return of the game! He returned from freaking cancer and basically won the Panthers game and Falcons game for us. Time to get out the checkbook and pay the man.
Also, could the announcers be more clueless on that last highlight? It's a play that swung the lead and they don't give a shit or even realize that Berry's about to give the Chiefs the lead.
So now instead of needing to drive down the field for a score, the Chiefs just have to run out the clock. Made easier by the timeout Atlanta burned not being ready on the fake punt sequence. Chiefs convert two first downs and run it out. 29-28 win. Sooooo good.
- - -
This team has an identity. They can be scored upon early, but their red zone defense is stout and rise to the occasion, especially in the second half.
They protect the ball on offense and can come up with clutch offensive drives late. The no-huddle is particularly effective.
They can count on big plays from the defense and special teams. They aren't flukes. They happen almost every game. Well coached.
And overall, they never say die. They are Royalesque with their ability to make things happen late.
Some of this defies their reputation. Critics will say this isn't a team built to make comebacks because of the Alex Smith offense isn't suited for that. And yet the comeback wins keep piling up. Critics say the Chiefs aren't a fun team to watch, because Alex Smith checks down a lot, don't have big name running backs or receivers, etc. And yet anybody that saw the Chiefs play Denver or Atlanta got their money's worth and then some. Exciting, awesome football being played.
- - -
After their first win of the year, I bought tickets to a game. I've never been to a night game and I thought that going on Thursday would be easier on Brit since I normally have the kids for most of the weekend. So I bought tickets to the Thursday Night Game. 10-2 Raiders at 9-3 Chiefs. Arrowhead Stadium at night against the Raiders? Winner takes first place and sits in line for the bye? The place will be rocking. Holy shit. Let's keep it going.
Monday, November 28, 2016
Mile High Magic: Chiefs 30, Broncos 27 (OT)
I was dreading this game.
Chiefs came into this game 0-6 on NBC's Sunday Night Football. They've struggled against the Broncos, building a 7-game losing streak that was finally snapped last year in Denver. The Chiefs were banged up. Dee Ford out, Maclin out. Peters coming off an injury. Houston in his second game back after year-long surgery/rehab process.
Broncos were 3.5 point favorites at home and that seemed low.
- - -
The game opened with 8 punts. From a Chiefs perspective, I thought based on how bad the offense looked, it was a miracle that this game was still tied. It could have been 20-0 easily. But Justin Houston showed up and was dominating their RT. These looked like two Super Bowl defenses in the first quarter.
The game turned on a Norwood muffed punt. Just not the one everyone paid attention to. On a 4th down from the KC 36, Colquitt boomed a punt. Norwood can't handle it, recovers and is downed inside the 5. Two plays later, the Chiefs get a strip sack in the endzone, recovered by the Broncos. The Chiefs players didn't seem to realize the ball was loose and didn't make a good effort to get it. There was a chance to get 7 points, not just 2. But the ensuing kickoff was turned into points by Tyreek Hill. After having two returns called back by penalties earlier in his rookie season, this was the first one that counted. 9-0 Chiefs with the offense having done nothing.
Twist that the safety was better than a defensive touchdown would have been.
9-3 at the half and it feels like points are at a premium.
In the 3rd quarter, the Broncos muscle out a touchdown drive that included a 4th down QB sneak that he just barely got. The Chiefs respond with a scoring drive of their own, ending with a 4th and 2 field goal from the Denver 17. Except wait...there's a penalty on Denver. Chiefs take points off the board and continue the drive. Tyreek Hill runs it in and still in the 3rd quarter Andy Reid smartly goes for 1, making it 16-10 Chiefs.
Not too long later, Norwood muffs another one and KC's Winchester, who just lost his father, recovers the ball. But credit to the Broncos D, they forced back to back 3 and outs. The muffed punt cost Denver 50 yards of field position. But it didn't matter as they found Sanders for big plays and took the lead 17-16.
The Chiefs can't respond but pin them deep inside their 5. I was paging Marcus Peters for a pick. And then I realized another safety would give the Chiefs the lead. On 3rd and 11 from their own 3 and 4 minutes left, the Broncos complete a backbreaking first down.
With 3 minutes left, the Chiefs are out of timeouts. 3rd and 2 from the Broncos 24. If they can pick up the first down, they can run out 2 minutes of clock. If they don't the Chiefs have plenty of time to drive for a field goal.
And then...Siemian lofts a pass up. The KC corner Gaines is still looking back at the QB as the Broncos receiver is hauling in the ball. Touchdown. 23-16 pending the extra point. They could have gone for two and pushed the game out of reach. But they make it an 8-point game. Based on how their defense had played, it seemed smart.
3 minutes to get 8 points. No timeouts.
On 3rd and 10, Kelce just gets the nose of the ball to the line to gain. At 2:01, Smith just gets the snap off and picks up 13 yards before the 2-minute warning.
The Chiefs get down to the 14 with 35 seconds left. Need a touchdown but have no timeouts. All of a sudden it's 4th and 10 from the 14. On 4th down...dials up a pass to Tyreek Hill who gets out of bounds with the first! Amazing.
12 seconds left. 3 yards away. Have to throw it. Slant to Hill. Who catches it. But then. Oh no. The clock is running. The ref calls him down at the one-inch line. The clock is running. They can't get a play off. This is how it's going to end. Except.
With one second left on the clock, the replay booth buzzes. The refs whistle for a review. If the clock expires, I don't know that they can review it. One second left. In review it shows that Hill's knee was down and the ball wasn't in the end zone yet...but he didn't have firm control yet. By the time he's holding on to the ball, he's sitting in the end zone. I've seen enough to know that calls like that can sometimes stick with the call on the field. The good news was this was a SNF game which means extra camera angles. They reversed it. Touchdown Chiefs.
And after all that, they have to go for 2.
Against a defense that has stopped them all day. And Smith rolls out and throws it to a guy who never catches it except this time. 24-24.
And after all that, we're going to overtime.
As it turns out, giving up that touchdown with 3 minutes left was probably better than a 3-yard gain and letting them run out the clock.
It would have really sucked to do all that and let the Broncos win in OT. Even a tie would have been better. The Broncos get all the way down the field but the Chiefs red zone defense holds strong. Both teams exchange field goals.
By the time the Broncos get it back at 27-27, there's only 4 minutes left.
Broncos cruise to the KC 44 with 2 minutes to go.
Run. No gain.
Incomplete.
Incomplete.
4th and 10 from the KC 44. Punt? Go for it? Kick a 62-yard field goal?
Even five yards would have made it an easy call. Defense there when you need it most.
I was happy they went for the field goal attempt. Even though I would have been happy with a tie. I wanted the win.
The kick was wide. They never showed if it had the distance.
Now Chiefs are in business.
1 minute left. At mid-field. Pass to Hill. Pass to Kelce. Holy crap.
5 seconds left. Time for a 34 yard field goal to win.
And the announcer mentions how the Broncos blocked the Saints extra point. And I realized there's no downside to them trying to jump the line and block this kick. Get the timing wrong and they just have to kick it again. But they don't.
The kick is up and....it's going right for the upright. Goddamn. It hits with the loudest DOINK I've ever heard. Game of fucking inches.
The holder thought it was no good. But the kicker waited for the signal. It's good.
30, 27.
When was the last time you saw it hit the upright and go in? It was that kind of night.
When the game came on, I said I was dreading it. But something was different about this SNF game. Mike Tirico was in the booth for Al Michaels. You can believe in whatever you want. But the Chiefs are 0-6 on SNF with Al Michaels, 1-0 with Tirico. (Yes, I realize that means that The Curse of Al Michaels lives on.)
Both Tyreek Hill and Justin Houston played their best at the best time. The team that played against the Bucs last week or the Texans in week 2 couldn't have stayed on the field with Denver. But this team showed up in a big way.
Most people agree that the AFC West is the best division in football.
For the Chiefs, that's 8 straight wins against divisional opponents.
This creates a 2 game winning streak against the Broncos. One more game this year: Sunday Night, Christmas Night in Arrowhead.
The Chiefs have a 5 game winning streak against the Chargers. Chiefs end their season in San Diego.
And a 4 game winning streak against the Raiders. The next time they play? In 10 days in Arrowhead. I'll be in the stands. Good chance winner of that game holds first place.
Chiefs came into this game 0-6 on NBC's Sunday Night Football. They've struggled against the Broncos, building a 7-game losing streak that was finally snapped last year in Denver. The Chiefs were banged up. Dee Ford out, Maclin out. Peters coming off an injury. Houston in his second game back after year-long surgery/rehab process.
Broncos were 3.5 point favorites at home and that seemed low.
- - -
The game opened with 8 punts. From a Chiefs perspective, I thought based on how bad the offense looked, it was a miracle that this game was still tied. It could have been 20-0 easily. But Justin Houston showed up and was dominating their RT. These looked like two Super Bowl defenses in the first quarter.
The game turned on a Norwood muffed punt. Just not the one everyone paid attention to. On a 4th down from the KC 36, Colquitt boomed a punt. Norwood can't handle it, recovers and is downed inside the 5. Two plays later, the Chiefs get a strip sack in the endzone, recovered by the Broncos. The Chiefs players didn't seem to realize the ball was loose and didn't make a good effort to get it. There was a chance to get 7 points, not just 2. But the ensuing kickoff was turned into points by Tyreek Hill. After having two returns called back by penalties earlier in his rookie season, this was the first one that counted. 9-0 Chiefs with the offense having done nothing.
Twist that the safety was better than a defensive touchdown would have been.
9-3 at the half and it feels like points are at a premium.
In the 3rd quarter, the Broncos muscle out a touchdown drive that included a 4th down QB sneak that he just barely got. The Chiefs respond with a scoring drive of their own, ending with a 4th and 2 field goal from the Denver 17. Except wait...there's a penalty on Denver. Chiefs take points off the board and continue the drive. Tyreek Hill runs it in and still in the 3rd quarter Andy Reid smartly goes for 1, making it 16-10 Chiefs.
Not too long later, Norwood muffs another one and KC's Winchester, who just lost his father, recovers the ball. But credit to the Broncos D, they forced back to back 3 and outs. The muffed punt cost Denver 50 yards of field position. But it didn't matter as they found Sanders for big plays and took the lead 17-16.
The Chiefs can't respond but pin them deep inside their 5. I was paging Marcus Peters for a pick. And then I realized another safety would give the Chiefs the lead. On 3rd and 11 from their own 3 and 4 minutes left, the Broncos complete a backbreaking first down.
With 3 minutes left, the Chiefs are out of timeouts. 3rd and 2 from the Broncos 24. If they can pick up the first down, they can run out 2 minutes of clock. If they don't the Chiefs have plenty of time to drive for a field goal.
And then...Siemian lofts a pass up. The KC corner Gaines is still looking back at the QB as the Broncos receiver is hauling in the ball. Touchdown. 23-16 pending the extra point. They could have gone for two and pushed the game out of reach. But they make it an 8-point game. Based on how their defense had played, it seemed smart.
3 minutes to get 8 points. No timeouts.
On 3rd and 10, Kelce just gets the nose of the ball to the line to gain. At 2:01, Smith just gets the snap off and picks up 13 yards before the 2-minute warning.
The Chiefs get down to the 14 with 35 seconds left. Need a touchdown but have no timeouts. All of a sudden it's 4th and 10 from the 14. On 4th down...dials up a pass to Tyreek Hill who gets out of bounds with the first! Amazing.
12 seconds left. 3 yards away. Have to throw it. Slant to Hill. Who catches it. But then. Oh no. The clock is running. The ref calls him down at the one-inch line. The clock is running. They can't get a play off. This is how it's going to end. Except.
With one second left on the clock, the replay booth buzzes. The refs whistle for a review. If the clock expires, I don't know that they can review it. One second left. In review it shows that Hill's knee was down and the ball wasn't in the end zone yet...but he didn't have firm control yet. By the time he's holding on to the ball, he's sitting in the end zone. I've seen enough to know that calls like that can sometimes stick with the call on the field. The good news was this was a SNF game which means extra camera angles. They reversed it. Touchdown Chiefs.
And after all that, they have to go for 2.
Against a defense that has stopped them all day. And Smith rolls out and throws it to a guy who never catches it except this time. 24-24.
And after all that, we're going to overtime.
As it turns out, giving up that touchdown with 3 minutes left was probably better than a 3-yard gain and letting them run out the clock.
It would have really sucked to do all that and let the Broncos win in OT. Even a tie would have been better. The Broncos get all the way down the field but the Chiefs red zone defense holds strong. Both teams exchange field goals.
By the time the Broncos get it back at 27-27, there's only 4 minutes left.
Broncos cruise to the KC 44 with 2 minutes to go.
Run. No gain.
Incomplete.
Incomplete.
4th and 10 from the KC 44. Punt? Go for it? Kick a 62-yard field goal?
Even five yards would have made it an easy call. Defense there when you need it most.
I was happy they went for the field goal attempt. Even though I would have been happy with a tie. I wanted the win.
The kick was wide. They never showed if it had the distance.
Now Chiefs are in business.
1 minute left. At mid-field. Pass to Hill. Pass to Kelce. Holy crap.
5 seconds left. Time for a 34 yard field goal to win.
And the announcer mentions how the Broncos blocked the Saints extra point. And I realized there's no downside to them trying to jump the line and block this kick. Get the timing wrong and they just have to kick it again. But they don't.
The kick is up and....it's going right for the upright. Goddamn. It hits with the loudest DOINK I've ever heard. Game of fucking inches.
The holder thought it was no good. But the kicker waited for the signal. It's good.
30, 27.
When was the last time you saw it hit the upright and go in? It was that kind of night.
When the game came on, I said I was dreading it. But something was different about this SNF game. Mike Tirico was in the booth for Al Michaels. You can believe in whatever you want. But the Chiefs are 0-6 on SNF with Al Michaels, 1-0 with Tirico. (Yes, I realize that means that The Curse of Al Michaels lives on.)
Both Tyreek Hill and Justin Houston played their best at the best time. The team that played against the Bucs last week or the Texans in week 2 couldn't have stayed on the field with Denver. But this team showed up in a big way.
Most people agree that the AFC West is the best division in football.
For the Chiefs, that's 8 straight wins against divisional opponents.
The Chiefs have a 5 game winning streak against the Chargers. Chiefs end their season in San Diego.
And a 4 game winning streak against the Raiders. The next time they play? In 10 days in Arrowhead. I'll be in the stands. Good chance winner of that game holds first place.
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
An email that changed my life
A brief backstory: In March 2010, I started applying for jobs in Denver. Brit and I were sick of Chicago. We were ready to raise a family and wanted to do that in Colorado.
And then on my birthday, 6 years ago to the day, I got this email. At the time I was writing dog food coupons and had a portfolio of fake ads. I had never done a TV spot or a voiceover recording session. This was a real ad agency that did real magazine ads, commercials and billboards.
I flew out for an interview on 12/2/2010. On Christmas Eve, we found out we were going to have our first child. I remember laying in bed in O'Fallon over Christmas Break, praying that I would get this Karsh Hagan job and we could move to Colorado.
On 1/3/11, I was told that I didn't get the job.
I stayed in touch and in May, Brit and I planned a trip out to Denver for a week in June. On May 31, I got another email from Matt. The guy they hired hadn't worked out. They wanted to interview me again. I was already going to be there anyways. Perfect timing. Interviewed on June 6th. Accepted an offer on July 6th. Started on July 28. Harrison came into the world a month later.
- - -
Today is my last day at Karsh Hagan. I was there for 5 years, 4 months. When I took the job it was actually a slight pay cut from Chicago. But boy has it been worth it. Six years ago, I was on a path to write brochures and liquor store displays for my whole life. That's a career of working to pay my bills, not to make anything that got me excited.
At Karsh Hagan, I won an award in every award show Denver had, 2 shows a year, for 5 years. I made national TV spots, amazing print ads, everything I had always wanted to do.
In my time at Karsh Hagan I was promoted to Senior Copywriter. And now I'm leaving to become an Associate Creative Director. The same title that Matt had when he emailed me six years ago.
Sunday, November 20, 2016
Premonitions That Mean Nothing
Had a dream about next week's game that is way, way too optimistic. Going to record it anyways.
Chiefs 36, Broncos 24. Demaryius Thomas fumbles twice.
Chiefs 36, Broncos 24. Demaryius Thomas fumbles twice.
Friday, November 18, 2016
Friday, November 11, 2016
Race Intersecting The Results
I started a much different post. And in the process of writing, one theme kept bubbling to the surface. So I'll start with this instead.
- - -
There have been reactions surrounding race on both sides.
Here's an article explaining the Trump vote was not because his supporters are racist, but because they felt unheard and left behind. And here's a #NeverTrump person talking about what it feels like when people generalize Trump supporters as racist.
On the other side, it feels different. Two days ago, I outlined my hopes and my fears for a Trump Presidency. My most pressing fear was not personal safety. But for some Americans, their first thought upon hearing Trump won, is what effect it will have on policing in this country. Or worried that their Mom, an American for 30 years, might not be able to enter the country, when she returns from foreign travel.
And then you look at the numbers.
And it's like, this is the president that white people wanted. But he's now the president for everyone.
There are other numbers to look at, of course.
So these are all insights into what white voters were thinking. They're not thinking, I'm racist and sexist. They're thinking they want change in Washington. They want change on trade. They aren't happy with how the country is doing. And basically, they don't trust either candidate, so they're voting, somewhat reluctantly for the person that can bring about change for them. That all makes sense.
But then there's people like me. Who can't believe people view Trump as even a plausible candidate. When you launch your campaign with the idea that the Mexicans coming to the United States are criminals and rapists. When you want to ban an entire religion from entering the country. When you say a Mexican judge can't be fair. When you rant about how bad the inner cities are ask them what do you have to lose?
When you're openly racist and misogynist, that's a non-starter. It's as if a NFL team chose their new head coach by a fan vote, and the only two choices were Mike Mularkey and a fan in the 2nd row yelling that Mexicans are rapists. I'm not super happy with Mike Mularkey. He sucks. But I'm not going to vote for the racist outsider, even if he promises free barbecue in the tailgate.
Trump supporters will say what about Hillary, she's terrible for all of these reasons! Deleted emails! Look, both candidates have skeletons in their closets. 60+% of the country thinks neither candidate is honest and trustworthy. But only one is openly bigoted, and not just that, but has centered rallies and plans around that bigotry.
I thought this passage from a high school teacher in Pennsylvania represented what a lot of people are feeling. (Emphasis mine.)
"Open racism should be a dealbreaker...what (Trump supporters) are telling me is, "Hey I don't hate you, I just don't care about you."
- - -
And then you see what happens on Day 1 after the election.
Here.
And here.
So that's why people are protesting. Because something that seems plainly unacceptable is now reality.
- - -
And now I get to the place where I was originally going to start...
The country has spoken.
(It doesn't matter that as of this writing Clinton maintains a narrow popular vote lead. Trump got over 300 EC votes. The results weren't close.)
And at this point, it doesn't even matter what the people of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and so many other states were motivated by. Trump is our 45th President.
The country got together and had to decide what to put on our pizza. The only toppings available were onion or mushroom. (All the good meat toppings suddenly vanished.) I voted for onion. The majority of the country voted for mushroom. Now we all have to eat it. Based on what I know so far, I don't think I'm going to like mushroom pizza for the next four years. I also don't think it's going to taste good for the people that voted for it, yet I believe they'll say they like it.
I'm not here to blame anyone.
No matter who you voted for: Clinton, Trump, 3rd party, or if you didn't vote at all...that's your right and I can just hope that you're happy with your decision.
At this point, it's time to see what we've ordered. Hopefully it's great for all Americans.
But there's one thing that will be difficult to swallow.
This is a president elected by white people, opposed by non-white people. If a Trump presidency does things to help White America and hurts non-White America, then we've got a serious problem.
No matter how much we may not want it, Trump is our next President. And all 318 million of us are counting on him to do a good job and make this country stronger, safer, more financially secure.
He promised to Make America Great Again.
Even if I think it's already great, it's up to his administration to deliver.
Edit:
Harry Reid, Senator of Nevada, shares his views.
- - -
There have been reactions surrounding race on both sides.
Here's an article explaining the Trump vote was not because his supporters are racist, but because they felt unheard and left behind. And here's a #NeverTrump person talking about what it feels like when people generalize Trump supporters as racist.
And Michael Moore who predicted a Trump win this summer, nailed it. Particularly with the Rust Belt feelings on their economic future.
On the other side, it feels different. Two days ago, I outlined my hopes and my fears for a Trump Presidency. My most pressing fear was not personal safety. But for some Americans, their first thought upon hearing Trump won, is what effect it will have on policing in this country. Or worried that their Mom, an American for 30 years, might not be able to enter the country, when she returns from foreign travel.
And then you look at the numbers.
And it's like, this is the president that white people wanted. But he's now the president for everyone.
There are other numbers to look at, of course.
So these are all insights into what white voters were thinking. They're not thinking, I'm racist and sexist. They're thinking they want change in Washington. They want change on trade. They aren't happy with how the country is doing. And basically, they don't trust either candidate, so they're voting, somewhat reluctantly for the person that can bring about change for them. That all makes sense.
But then there's people like me. Who can't believe people view Trump as even a plausible candidate. When you launch your campaign with the idea that the Mexicans coming to the United States are criminals and rapists. When you want to ban an entire religion from entering the country. When you say a Mexican judge can't be fair. When you rant about how bad the inner cities are ask them what do you have to lose?
"Poverty. Rejection. Horrible education. No housing, no homes, no ownership. Crime at levels that nobody has seen. You can go to war zones in countries that we are fighting and it's safer than living in some of our inner cities that are run by the Democrats."
When you're openly racist and misogynist, that's a non-starter. It's as if a NFL team chose their new head coach by a fan vote, and the only two choices were Mike Mularkey and a fan in the 2nd row yelling that Mexicans are rapists. I'm not super happy with Mike Mularkey. He sucks. But I'm not going to vote for the racist outsider, even if he promises free barbecue in the tailgate.
Trump supporters will say what about Hillary, she's terrible for all of these reasons! Deleted emails! Look, both candidates have skeletons in their closets. 60+% of the country thinks neither candidate is honest and trustworthy. But only one is openly bigoted, and not just that, but has centered rallies and plans around that bigotry.
I thought this passage from a high school teacher in Pennsylvania represented what a lot of people are feeling. (Emphasis mine.)
My struggle is this: I have been taught and fully embrace that my job is to make a safe space for kids to share their viewpoints. Whether or not I agree is so unimportant that I don’t even take it into consideration. However, a long time ago, this election became no longer a political choice but a moral one. Everyone who voted for Trump is not racist, but everyone who voted for Trump had to decide that racism was not a dealbreaker. So how do I allow kids to stand up and tell their peers that misogyny, racism, and xenophobia are ok? They are not; our school diversity statement, (which I wrote!), says it’s not, and yet in order to honor my students’ viewpoint, do I have to bite my tongue? Everything about my teaching career tells me to listen, accept, and invite other students to engage with those ideas.This was echoed by Hasan Minhaj in the video I linked above:
"Open racism should be a dealbreaker...what (Trump supporters) are telling me is, "Hey I don't hate you, I just don't care about you."
- - -
And then you see what happens on Day 1 after the election.
Here.
And here.
So that's why people are protesting. Because something that seems plainly unacceptable is now reality.
- - -
And now I get to the place where I was originally going to start...
The country has spoken.
(It doesn't matter that as of this writing Clinton maintains a narrow popular vote lead. Trump got over 300 EC votes. The results weren't close.)
And at this point, it doesn't even matter what the people of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and so many other states were motivated by. Trump is our 45th President.
The country got together and had to decide what to put on our pizza. The only toppings available were onion or mushroom. (All the good meat toppings suddenly vanished.) I voted for onion. The majority of the country voted for mushroom. Now we all have to eat it. Based on what I know so far, I don't think I'm going to like mushroom pizza for the next four years. I also don't think it's going to taste good for the people that voted for it, yet I believe they'll say they like it.
I'm not here to blame anyone.
No matter who you voted for: Clinton, Trump, 3rd party, or if you didn't vote at all...that's your right and I can just hope that you're happy with your decision.
At this point, it's time to see what we've ordered. Hopefully it's great for all Americans.
But there's one thing that will be difficult to swallow.
This is a president elected by white people, opposed by non-white people. If a Trump presidency does things to help White America and hurts non-White America, then we've got a serious problem.
No matter how much we may not want it, Trump is our next President. And all 318 million of us are counting on him to do a good job and make this country stronger, safer, more financially secure.
He promised to Make America Great Again.
Even if I think it's already great, it's up to his administration to deliver.
Edit:
Harry Reid, Senator of Nevada, shares his views.
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
This Is What America Deserves
I read a comment this morning that struck me.
It was the can't be worse than Obama part.
It's enough to make me feel like I'm crazy. That I'm on Shutter Island. Do we not remember the W presidency as a not so great time that ended with a housing crisis and a Great Recession? Where Obama had to come in and bailout the auto industry in Michigan and surrounding areas?
That by almost any measure I can think of we are so, so, so much better off than in 2008? Am I crazy? Why do people think Obama has done a bad job?
- - -
I wrote this last night before I went to bed:
Before people forget, as of November 8, 2016, America was really great.
The economy was solid. Not as strong as it could be, but an incredible bounce back from the housing crising and recession/depression that W left. The gap between rich and poor is a problem, but efforts to raise the minimum wage are an attempt at progress. The middle class has rebounded, at least somewhat.
People generally feel safe. Yes, there are shootings. Gun violence is too high. But still, I think most people feel safe.
According to Wikipedia, our current war efforts are listed as Pakistan, Afghanistan and the War on ISIL. So not at peace, but still it seems like mostly airstrikes, and much less military conflict compared to the War on Terror that defined W's presidency.
We were becoming more inclusive as a country. Gay marriage finally became legal in June 2015, country-wide.
I think it's important to remember where the country was at this point. Because we sure don't know where it's going to be in 4 or 8 years.
- - -
Stephen Colbert, who I love and respect, ended his show by talking about how we can get back to our lives and forget about politics, and unite about what brings us together.
As if this is about being hurt that "my guy" didn't win. This isn't a football game where I'm upset about my team not winning. This is about what happens moving forward.
Look, if Trump does a great job, I will be incredibly happy. I hold no personal grudges. I want him to make the country stronger.
If he gets rid of Obamacare and creates a system that makes healthcare more affordable and accessible, particularly for the working and middle class, I will sing his praises.
If he can reduce gun violence in America, as he harped about how bad it is in Chicago and other inner cities over and over, I would be thrilled.
If he can grow our GDP, reduce unemployment beyond historically low levels, help the factory workers in the Midwest, make our economy thrive, that would be awesome. I would be pumped about a Trump presidency.
If he wants a smaller government, without affecting the American quality of life, I'm for that too.
If he reveals that he was only saying racist, misogynist, hateful things to get elected and then becomes an inclusive President that protects the rights of all Americans, that would be super great.
If he can make our schools stronger, college more affordable, all hail President Trump.
If he makes the country better, I'd vote for his re-election in 4 years.
If he makes the country better, this is what America deserves.
I'm filled with fear because I believe he won't do any of these things.
Based on the campaign he's run, I expect him to repeal Obamacare without having anything in it's place. I'm afraid of healthcare becoming more expensive and less accessible.
I expect him to cut taxes to benefit the wealthy.
I expect him to blow billions on a Wall without actually accomplishing anything.
I'm afraid our economy will stutter and stagnate. I'm afraid the Midwest factory workers will not see any improvement.
I'm afraid his presidency will embolden the racist movement in this country, creating a culture of danger and fear.
I'm afraid that gay marriage will get overturned.
I'm afraid of what will happen to the Supreme Court. I'm pissed off that the Republican Congress didn't meet upon Merrick Garland for 237 days, a dereliction of duty, and it's going to work! This could have lasting effects on the country for the next 30-40 years.
I'm afraid that the country is going to be significantly worse off in 4 or 8 years.
And if that happens, this is what America deserves.
Monday, November 07, 2016
Final Election Prediction
I'm sticking with my prediction from a week out.
I don't think anything's really changed and I figure I get bonus points for calling it a week early, eh?
Edit:
Nate Silver is trying to ride my coattails!
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/796001597507649536
I had these states a week ago!
I don't think anything's really changed and I figure I get bonus points for calling it a week early, eh?
Edit:
Nate Silver is trying to ride my coattails!
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/796001597507649536
I had these states a week ago!
Good Timing or Bad Timing?
Coming in to Week 9, the Chiefs were missing Alex Smith, Spencer Ware, Jamaal Charles, and Maclin was banged up. Charles is out for the year, but the others, possibly just need one week to get healthy.
The Chiefs had a home game against the Jaguars. It's the easiest game on their schedule.
The question was is this opponent Good Timing or Bad Timing?
Reason Why It Might Be Good Timing
If you can beat the Jaguars with Foles and Charcandrick West, it's the perfect timing for your guys to be hurt.
Reason Why It Might Be Bad Timing
With a healthy roster, Chiefs win this over 95% of the time. If the injuries cost the team the game, then it's horrible timing to waste the easiest game on the schedule.
So for me, this was more than just one game on the schedule. This was a big swing. Either we fortunately get a win that we otherwise couldn't with a depleted roster or we waste a game that we'd otherwise always win.
- - -
On the first drive, Maclin gets injured and is done for the day.
In the 4th, Kelce gets ejected for throwing his towel like a penalty flag toward the ref.
Hey Kelce: When your team is missing literally ALL their offensive weapons, and yet your defense has gifted you a 9 point lead and you're driving for a touchdown that would basically clinch the game, maybe DON'T get ejected?
Without the Kelce penalty it would have been 3rd and 4 from the 12. But instead he's ejected and it's 3rd and 34 from the 42. The Chiefs would use a screen pass to set up a field goal and salvage 3 points, but a touchdown would have really helped.
- - -
Yards were 449-231 Jags.
First downs were 25-10 Jags.
Time of possession was even.
Jags averaged 6 yards a carry, Chiefs 3.
So yeah, it wasn't exactly pretty for the Chiefs on either side of the ball.
Here are the Chiefs scoring drives:
23 yards
5 yards
5 yards
25 yards
38 yards
Here are the Jaguars scoring drives:
88 yards
61 yards
The stat I didn't mention that turned the game into a Chiefs win:
Turnovers: 4-0.
The Chiefs first three scores (TD, FG, FG) all came after Jaguars turnovers. It was the only way the Chiefs could score. Their fourth score was set up by a punt return to the JAX 30, another field goal.
- - -
Foles played worse at home vs the Jags with a week to prepare, than he did on the road vs the Colts being thrown into the game with no warning.
- - -
After the whole Kelce incident, it was 19-7 Chiefs with 10 minutes to go. With 8 minutes left, it appears that Ivory crossed the plane. But ruling on the field was a fumble and Chiefs recovery and there was not definitive proof to overturn it. This video explains the ruling. At the time, it was like well, The Chiefs would still be winning, whatever.
Following a Chiefs 3 and out, the Jags march down the field and get a TD to make it 19-14 with 4 minutes left. Hey turns out that fumble/touchdown was super important!
Following another Chiefs 3 and out, the Jags march down the field again. They have a 1st and 10 at the KC 39 with 3 minutes to go. (Hey Kelce: Remember when the Chiefs are going 3 and out and you almost cost us the game?)
The Chiefs D made a fourth down stop and now everyone on the offense owes the defense a burger.
- - -
Here is the turnovers by game, and whether they won or lost. In this list, turnovers are bad (giveaways).
KC 1, SD 0. Win
KC 3, HOU 2. Loss
NYJ 8, KC 1. Win
KC 2, PIT 0, Loss
OAK 2, KC 0. Win
NO 2, KC 0. Win
IND 2, KC 0. Win
JAX 4, KC 0. Win
The outlier is the very first game, where the Chiefs pulled out a miraculous comeback after being down 24-3, late in the 3rd. Otherwise...turnovers are football. Look at the 4-game winning streak they're on. The Raiders, Saints and Colts all won yesterday. But the Chiefs beat them all comfortably because of turnovers.
- - -
Here are your current playoff standings.
At this point, it really looks like the AFC West is sending three teams. Which means a 2 seed with a bye and a home game, a 5 seed with a road game and a 6 seed with a road game.
So it would be pretty nice to get that 2-seed. With the Raiders on bye, if the Chiefs win this week, they move up to that spot, since we already beat the Raiders.
With that as the goal, every game on the schedule becomes incredibly tight and important.
Going on the road to Carolina is not easy no matter how much they've struggled.
Both the Raiders and Broncos lost to the Falcons, the Chiefs still have to go to Atlanta. Two games against the Broncos.
A thursday night game against the Raiders, that I'll be at!
A rematch against the Chargers to end the season in San Diego.
Plenty of tough games. The Chiefs need to be healthy, because they can't beat anybody else the way they played yesterday.
Sitting at 6-2 through 8. If they can go 6-2 in the back half, get to 12-4, I think that wins the division.
Right now, I'm guessing the Chiefs lose in Atlanta and Denver. Another loss and 11-5 wouldn't surprise me. 10-6 would be a little disappointing, but still gets a wild card probably.
- - -
Although the Patriots are so good that does it even matter? They would need some injuries of their own to bring them down to the level of the rest of the AFC. (Note: I'm not rooting for injuries. Just being realistic about where they're at.)
Although this was the first year I've ever bet on the Chiefs to make the Super Bowl, so who knows?
The Chiefs had a home game against the Jaguars. It's the easiest game on their schedule.
The question was is this opponent Good Timing or Bad Timing?
Reason Why It Might Be Good Timing
If you can beat the Jaguars with Foles and Charcandrick West, it's the perfect timing for your guys to be hurt.
Reason Why It Might Be Bad Timing
With a healthy roster, Chiefs win this over 95% of the time. If the injuries cost the team the game, then it's horrible timing to waste the easiest game on the schedule.
So for me, this was more than just one game on the schedule. This was a big swing. Either we fortunately get a win that we otherwise couldn't with a depleted roster or we waste a game that we'd otherwise always win.
- - -
On the first drive, Maclin gets injured and is done for the day.
In the 4th, Kelce gets ejected for throwing his towel like a penalty flag toward the ref.
Hey Kelce: When your team is missing literally ALL their offensive weapons, and yet your defense has gifted you a 9 point lead and you're driving for a touchdown that would basically clinch the game, maybe DON'T get ejected?
Without the Kelce penalty it would have been 3rd and 4 from the 12. But instead he's ejected and it's 3rd and 34 from the 42. The Chiefs would use a screen pass to set up a field goal and salvage 3 points, but a touchdown would have really helped.
- - -
Yards were 449-231 Jags.
First downs were 25-10 Jags.
Time of possession was even.
Jags averaged 6 yards a carry, Chiefs 3.
So yeah, it wasn't exactly pretty for the Chiefs on either side of the ball.
Here are the Chiefs scoring drives:
23 yards
5 yards
5 yards
25 yards
38 yards
Here are the Jaguars scoring drives:
88 yards
61 yards
The stat I didn't mention that turned the game into a Chiefs win:
Turnovers: 4-0.
The Chiefs first three scores (TD, FG, FG) all came after Jaguars turnovers. It was the only way the Chiefs could score. Their fourth score was set up by a punt return to the JAX 30, another field goal.
The last Chiefs scoring drive came after a missed Jags field goal, starting at the KC 44. KC couldn't really move the ball or stop the Jaguars from driving up and down the field.
- - -
Foles played worse at home vs the Jags with a week to prepare, than he did on the road vs the Colts being thrown into the game with no warning.
- - -
After the whole Kelce incident, it was 19-7 Chiefs with 10 minutes to go. With 8 minutes left, it appears that Ivory crossed the plane. But ruling on the field was a fumble and Chiefs recovery and there was not definitive proof to overturn it. This video explains the ruling. At the time, it was like well, The Chiefs would still be winning, whatever.
Following a Chiefs 3 and out, the Jags march down the field and get a TD to make it 19-14 with 4 minutes left. Hey turns out that fumble/touchdown was super important!
Following another Chiefs 3 and out, the Jags march down the field again. They have a 1st and 10 at the KC 39 with 3 minutes to go. (Hey Kelce: Remember when the Chiefs are going 3 and out and you almost cost us the game?)
The Chiefs D made a fourth down stop and now everyone on the offense owes the defense a burger.
- - -
Here is the turnovers by game, and whether they won or lost. In this list, turnovers are bad (giveaways).
KC 1, SD 0. Win
KC 3, HOU 2. Loss
NYJ 8, KC 1. Win
KC 2, PIT 0, Loss
OAK 2, KC 0. Win
NO 2, KC 0. Win
IND 2, KC 0. Win
JAX 4, KC 0. Win
The outlier is the very first game, where the Chiefs pulled out a miraculous comeback after being down 24-3, late in the 3rd. Otherwise...turnovers are football. Look at the 4-game winning streak they're on. The Raiders, Saints and Colts all won yesterday. But the Chiefs beat them all comfortably because of turnovers.
- - -
Here are your current playoff standings.
At this point, it really looks like the AFC West is sending three teams. Which means a 2 seed with a bye and a home game, a 5 seed with a road game and a 6 seed with a road game.
So it would be pretty nice to get that 2-seed. With the Raiders on bye, if the Chiefs win this week, they move up to that spot, since we already beat the Raiders.
With that as the goal, every game on the schedule becomes incredibly tight and important.
Going on the road to Carolina is not easy no matter how much they've struggled.
Both the Raiders and Broncos lost to the Falcons, the Chiefs still have to go to Atlanta. Two games against the Broncos.
A thursday night game against the Raiders, that I'll be at!
A rematch against the Chargers to end the season in San Diego.
Plenty of tough games. The Chiefs need to be healthy, because they can't beat anybody else the way they played yesterday.
Sitting at 6-2 through 8. If they can go 6-2 in the back half, get to 12-4, I think that wins the division.
Right now, I'm guessing the Chiefs lose in Atlanta and Denver. Another loss and 11-5 wouldn't surprise me. 10-6 would be a little disappointing, but still gets a wild card probably.
- - -
Although the Patriots are so good that does it even matter? They would need some injuries of their own to bring them down to the level of the rest of the AFC. (Note: I'm not rooting for injuries. Just being realistic about where they're at.)
Although this was the first year I've ever bet on the Chiefs to make the Super Bowl, so who knows?
Tuesday, November 01, 2016
Election Prediction: One Week Out
I'll update this if I think something's changed by Election Day, but I'm feeling pretty comfortable with this prediction. Well, maybe not Florida. Crap.
NFL Mid-Season Breakdown
In the AFC, it's actually nice and clean at the moment.
1-loss teams
Patriots
2-loss teams
Broncos
Raiders
Chiefs
3-loss teams
Steelers
Texans
If the season ended today, those are your 6 playoff teams, 4 division winners plus two wild-cards from AFC West.
There are two more teams at .500, the Titans and the Bills. Totally possible for either one to make a run, but they're 2 games back in the wild-card race. Titans could try and pass Texans, but seems unlikely at this point.
I don't completely trust the Raiders, but to get to 6-2, 5-0 on the road, is a nice accomplishment. Big win in OT for them.
- - -
It's not as clean cut in the NFC.
1-loss teams
Cowboys
2-loss teams
Vikings
Seahawks
3-loss teams
Falcons
Packers
Giants
Eagles
Washington
Falcons are sitting pretty atop their division. Which leaves Packers, Giants, Eagles and Washington fighting for 2 playoff spots. The Lions are the other .500 team, so they could get in there as well.
At this point, I'm guessing both Vikings and Packers make it to the playoffs. I think the Seahawks, Falcons and Cowboys are safe as well. I like the Eagles to be the 6th seed over Washington and Giants, but who knows?
1-loss teams
Patriots
2-loss teams
Broncos
Raiders
Chiefs
3-loss teams
Steelers
Texans
If the season ended today, those are your 6 playoff teams, 4 division winners plus two wild-cards from AFC West.
There are two more teams at .500, the Titans and the Bills. Totally possible for either one to make a run, but they're 2 games back in the wild-card race. Titans could try and pass Texans, but seems unlikely at this point.
I don't completely trust the Raiders, but to get to 6-2, 5-0 on the road, is a nice accomplishment. Big win in OT for them.
- - -
It's not as clean cut in the NFC.
1-loss teams
Cowboys
2-loss teams
Vikings
Seahawks
3-loss teams
Falcons
Packers
Giants
Eagles
Washington
Falcons are sitting pretty atop their division. Which leaves Packers, Giants, Eagles and Washington fighting for 2 playoff spots. The Lions are the other .500 team, so they could get in there as well.
At this point, I'm guessing both Vikings and Packers make it to the playoffs. I think the Seahawks, Falcons and Cowboys are safe as well. I like the Eagles to be the 6th seed over Washington and Giants, but who knows?
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