Good Timing or Bad Timing?

Coming in to Week 9, the Chiefs were missing Alex Smith, Spencer Ware, Jamaal Charles, and Maclin was banged up. Charles is out for the year, but the others, possibly just need one week to get healthy.

The Chiefs had a home game against the Jaguars. It's the easiest game on their schedule.

The question was is this opponent Good Timing or Bad Timing?

Reason Why It Might Be Good Timing
If you can beat the Jaguars with Foles and Charcandrick West, it's the perfect timing for your guys to be hurt.

Reason Why It Might Be Bad Timing
With a healthy roster, Chiefs win this over 95% of the time. If the injuries cost the team the game, then it's horrible timing to waste the easiest game on the schedule.

So for me, this was more than just one game on the schedule. This was a big swing. Either we fortunately get a win that we otherwise couldn't with a depleted roster or we waste a game that we'd otherwise always win.

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On the first drive, Maclin gets injured and is done for the day.
In the 4th, Kelce gets ejected for throwing his towel like a penalty flag toward the ref.

Hey Kelce: When your team is missing literally ALL their offensive weapons, and yet your defense has gifted you a 9 point lead and you're driving for a touchdown that would basically clinch the game, maybe DON'T get ejected?

Without the Kelce penalty it would have been 3rd and 4 from the 12. But instead he's ejected and it's 3rd and 34 from the 42. The Chiefs would use a screen pass to set up a field goal and salvage 3 points, but a touchdown would have really helped.

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Yards were 449-231 Jags.
First downs were 25-10 Jags.
Time of possession was even.
Jags averaged 6 yards a carry, Chiefs 3.

So yeah, it wasn't exactly pretty for the Chiefs on either side of the ball.

Here are the Chiefs scoring drives:
23 yards
5 yards
5 yards
25 yards
38 yards

Here are the Jaguars scoring drives:
88 yards
61 yards

The stat I didn't mention that turned the game into a Chiefs win:
Turnovers: 4-0.

The Chiefs first three scores (TD, FG, FG) all came after Jaguars turnovers. It was the only way the Chiefs could score. Their fourth score was set up by a punt return to the JAX 30, another field goal.

The last Chiefs scoring drive came after a missed Jags field goal, starting at the KC 44. KC couldn't really move the ball or stop the Jaguars from driving up and down the field.

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Foles played worse at home vs the Jags with a week to prepare, than he did on the road vs the Colts being thrown into the game with no warning.

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After the whole Kelce incident, it was 19-7 Chiefs with 10 minutes to go. With 8 minutes left, it appears that Ivory crossed the plane. But ruling on the field was a fumble and Chiefs recovery and there was not definitive proof to overturn it. This video explains the ruling. At the time, it was like well, The Chiefs would still be winning, whatever.

Following a Chiefs 3 and out, the Jags march down the field and get a TD to make it 19-14 with 4 minutes left. Hey turns out that fumble/touchdown was super important!

Following another Chiefs 3 and out, the Jags march down the field again. They have a 1st and 10 at the KC 39 with 3 minutes to go. (Hey Kelce: Remember when the Chiefs are going 3 and out and you almost cost us the game?)

The Chiefs D made a fourth down stop and now everyone on the offense owes the defense a burger.

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Here is the turnovers by game, and whether they won or lost. In this list, turnovers are bad (giveaways).

KC 1, SD 0. Win
KC 3, HOU 2. Loss
NYJ 8, KC 1. Win
KC 2, PIT 0, Loss
OAK 2, KC 0. Win
NO 2, KC 0. Win
IND 2, KC 0. Win
JAX 4, KC 0. Win

The outlier is the very first game, where the Chiefs pulled out a miraculous comeback after being down 24-3, late in the 3rd. Otherwise...turnovers are football. Look at the 4-game winning streak they're on. The Raiders, Saints and Colts all won yesterday. But the Chiefs beat them all comfortably because of turnovers.

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Here are your current playoff standings.

At this point, it really looks like the AFC West is sending three teams. Which means a 2 seed with a bye and a home game, a 5 seed with a road game and a 6 seed with a road game.

So it would be pretty nice to get that 2-seed. With the Raiders on bye, if the Chiefs win this week, they move up to that spot, since we already beat the Raiders.

With that as the goal, every game on the schedule becomes incredibly tight and important.

Going on the road to Carolina is not easy no matter how much they've struggled.
Both the Raiders and Broncos lost to the Falcons, the Chiefs still have to go to Atlanta. Two games against the Broncos.
A thursday night game against the Raiders, that I'll be at!
A rematch against the Chargers to end the season in San Diego.

Plenty of tough games. The Chiefs need to be healthy, because they can't beat anybody else the way they played yesterday.

Sitting at 6-2 through 8. If they can go 6-2 in the back half, get to 12-4, I think that wins the division.

Right now, I'm guessing the Chiefs lose in Atlanta and Denver. Another loss and 11-5 wouldn't surprise me. 10-6 would be a little disappointing, but still gets a wild card probably.

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Although the Patriots are so good that does it even matter? They would need some injuries of their own to bring them down to the level of the rest of the AFC. (Note: I'm not rooting for injuries. Just being realistic about where they're at.)

Although this was the first year I've ever bet on the Chiefs to make the Super Bowl, so who knows?