Ranking the Chiefs seasons 2001-2017

I'm picking 2001 as it coincides with the year I went to college and the beginning of the Vermeil era.

- - -

17. 2012

Romeo Crennel. Worst team in the league, 2-14. Fans formed the Save Our Chiefs organization, flying banners over the stadium demanding the firing of the GM. And a player committed murder and then killed himself on Arrowhead ground in front of the GM and Coach. No jokes to be made, just the low point of the franchise.

16. 2008

Brodie Croyle was the starting quarterback. He would finish his career 0-10 as a NFL QB.

15. 2007

Coming off a playoff berth, the Chiefs started 4-3 before losing their last 9 games. Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle battled for the quarterback position. Yikes. I saw them lose in person to the Jaguars.

14. 2001

This was a mediocre season that I barely remember. We weren't watching a ton of NFL that first year in the dorms. They finished 6-10 in Vermeil's first season.

13. 2009

They sucked this year finishing 4-12, but did beat the Steelers in overtime on my birthday, which is a better present than most people get. And they blew out the Broncos, knocking them out of playoff contention in week 17. They at least had the decency to suck from the beginning.

12. 2011 

The Chiefs sucked this year too. They finished 7-9 but never felt good. The only highlight was being the only team in the regular season to beat the 15-1 Packers.

11. 2002 

The Chiefs finished 8-8 in last place in the AFC West, but it did have two memorable things: In week 1, Dwayne Rudd on the Browns threw his helmet off in celebration which enabled Morten Anderson to win the game for the Chiefs. The second was the Raiders getting blown out in the Super Bowl.

10. 2006

This year started terribly with Trent Green going down in week 1 (and me burning my burgers filling my apartment with smoke). The highlight of the season was having everything happen exactly right in week 17 to get them into the playoffs.

9. 2004

The season opener featured the left-handed interception by Plummer on MNF. That was a Chiefs loss to the Broncos. Got to see Dante Hall score a return touchdown in the first game that I took Mrs. Hoagie Central to. That was a Chiefs loss to the Chargers. So some decent moments in a frustrating 7-9 season.

8. 2014

This is so far the low point of the Andy Reid era and it was still pretty good. They crushed the Patriots on Monday Night Football and then beat the Seahawks—the two eventual Super Bowl teams. Mrs. Hoagie Central and I flew into KC to see the Chiefs blow out the Rams. And no playoff heartbreak. This is the first good season on the list.

7. 2005

This was my first year in Chicago and this season was actually pretty great. Started with a domination of the Jets in the season opener, a week 6 win over Washington I watched in a Lakeview bar, an incredible win over the Raiders (that at the time I called the greatest game ever played) and a December win over the Broncos on a 4th down stand. I even got to see a blowout win in person, Vermeil's last game. Didn't even have to suffer through a playoff loss.

6. 2010

This was the only season between 2003 and 2016 where the Chiefs won the division. It started on MNF with me doing a rain dance in Burnsy's apartment on Milwaukee. There was an incredible back and forth OT win over the Bills. And we saw them beat the Cardinals at Arrowhead on an incredible birthday weekend. They didn't have a shot in the playoff game but at least it wasn't a choke job.

5. 2017

Last year had quite the ups and downs. Started the year with an incredible win on the NFL Season Opener in Foxboro. Then beat the eventual champs, Eagles. Got to 5-0. And then the wheels came off. Lost to the Giants, Bills and Jets, all three terrible teams in consecutive weeks. I went to two home games, first time seeing the Chiefs beat the Broncos and also the Bills loss. The Chiefs were up 21-3 in the playoffs over the Titans. Great! Mariota came back by converting a deflected pass into a touchdown.

4. 2013

You have to read the 2012 entry at the top of the list to understand the turnaround. The Chiefs bring in John Dorsey, Andy Reid and Alex Smith. They went from having the #1 pick in April to having the #1 record in the NFL in October. They were 9-0 and a legit Super Bowl contender in November. That kind of storybook turnaround is still incredible. Unfortunately, starting 9-0 isn't good enough to win the division. The Broncos beat the Chiefs twice and finished 13-3, Chiefs 11-5. The Chiefs were even up 38-10 in the playoffs in Andy Reid's first year of the Chiefs. Great! Luck came back by converting a running back fumble into a touchdown. The only thing that saved the season was living in Denver and watching the Broncos get blown out in the Super Bowl.

3. 2016

The Comeback Chiefs. Most teams are lucky to get one comeback a year. This season they had 4 incredible comebacks. Down 17-0 against the Panthers, the Marcus Peters strip and punt game. The Eric Berry Pick-2 game in Atlanta. The biggest comeback in Chiefs history, in the opener over the Chargers. And the best game I've seen to date. If I could watch only one game over and over, this is it. Mile High Magic. And then I moved to Kansas City and went to Arctic Arrowhead for the Ty-reek game to win the division. It didn't have a 9-0 start or a playoff win, but this season was the most entertaining and enjoyable as it was happening.

2. 2003

This was the season that rekindled my love for the Chiefs. 2003 was our first year out of the dorms AND the first year we did any kind of fantasy football, so the NFL became a huge part of our lives. And this was the year that Dante Hall broke out and became the most exciting player in the league. Hall's return TD's were the game winners over the Ravens and Broncos. In week 6, the Chiefs were down 31-14 in the 4th quarter to Favre's Packers in Lambeau...and would come back to win 40-34 in OT. Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, the best O-Line. A very special offense. They went 13-3 and earned the #2 seed and a bye. I remember praying at Thanksgiving for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. They lost to Manning in the no-punt playoff game and I was devastated. What a formative year.

1. 2015

What a fucking ride. Chiefs opened the season with a solid win over the Texans and had me thinking Super Bowl. And then in the most important game...catastrophe. Charles fumbles away the game to the Broncos. Chiefs spiral to 1-5. I called them brutal. I called their season over. Then they go and win 10 regular season games in a row, including finally beating Manning's Broncos. But it's the playoff win that puts this over the top. Because without this streak, this season, this playoff win, the Chiefs would be 0-9 in the playoffs since 1994 and the insane 2017 Titans playoffs loss would sting a lot more. So yeah, I'm pretty glad they went on that streak. (This season is also marred by the Broncos winning the Super Bowl, but a Chiefs playoff win is still a Chiefs playoff win.)


I supposed the take away here is that hiring Andy Reid was the best thing that ever happened to the Chiefs. And that the Chiefs have given me a lot of joy...even in losing seasons, there are plenty of memorable moments to enjoy.

Dante Hall X-Factor

Over ten years ago, somebody uploaded a video about Dante Hall, The X-Factor, with the song, X Gonna Give It To Ya. In 2009, I posted it as the video that pumps me up the most. Of course, it's been taken down since then. So I tried to recreate it.

I synced the video to the lyrics at :38, :45, :57, 1:13, 1:41. Of course the best one is at :57.

Mrs. Hoagie Central and I were in the crowd for the one at 2:00.

password: sucks




Also, here's a backup link in case vimeo takes this down.

Chiefs Streaks

I had a hunch that when Chiefs get a winning streak, it's usually at the beginning of the season. So I went back to 2000 and looked for any winning streaks of at least four games.

CHIEFS 4-GAME WIN STREAKS SINCE 2000

2003
9 win streak - started week 1
finished 13-3

2004
4 win streak - started week 13
finished 7-9

2011
4 win streak - started week 4
finished 7-9

2013
9 win streak - started week 1
finished 11-5

2014
5 win streak - started week 7
finished 9-7

2015
10 win streak - started week 7
finished 11-5

2016
5 win streak - started week 6
finished 12-4

2017
5 win streak - started week 1
4 win streak - started week 14
finished 10-6

Okay, that's interesting. I'm going to filter out the 4-game winning streaks. While good, they didn't ensure winning seasons. In my gut, the benchmark was 5. I asked Mark and he said 4 was notable, a month without losing.


CHIEFS 5-GAME WIN STREAKS SINCE 2000

2003
9 win streak - started week 1
finished 13-3

2013
9 win streak - started week 1
finished 11-5

2014
5 win streak - started week 7
finished 9-7

2015
10 win streak - started week 7
finished 11-5

2016
5 win streak - started week 6
finished 12-4

2017
5 win streak - started week 1
finished 10-6

There you go. 6 times this millennium the Chiefs have been on fire. 3 of them have been to start the season: 2003, 2013, 2017. But they've also gotten in rolling in weeks 6-7. (Obviously, it's not possible to start a 5-game winning streak in weeks 14-17.)

If you look at streaks of 6 or more, it's to open the season in 2003 and 2013 and to close the season in 2015.

As for my hunch, it's not completely borne out, but yes the Chiefs hot streaks do tend to start at the beginning of the season.

2018 NFL Gambling: Method C

A quick recap: before the season started I created 2 methods of betting on NFL Futures.

Method C is ongoing wagers throughout the season.

Here's what I have so far:

1000 on Chiefs to win division +140
1000 on Rams to win division -290

2000 on Chiefs to win division +130

That leaves me with 6000 more to spend this season. With Jimmy G out for the year, the Rams odds have jumped up to -1600 to win their division. Seems like a lock, but putting 1000 on those odds is kind of pointless. 

At the moment, Pats are -300 and Dolphins are +260. Coming into the season, I thought the Dolphins would finish between 6-10 and 8-8 and I think that's still true. They haven't played anyone good. I still believe in the Patriots long term. The Dolphins play the Pats this week and I'm guessing the Pats win and go back to being a -800 favorite...so -300 is tempting. In fact, Patriots are still the AFC favorites for making the SB at +325 with Chiefs at +350. 

(At the moment I'm convinced Chiefs win the division but incredibly nervous that they fall short in the playoffs.)

I'm going to go ahead and put 

1000 on Patriots to win division at -300

500 on Rams to win NFC at +250

Still leaves me 4500 for the rest of the year. 

Jaguars at -175 to win division is tempting. I don't believe in the Titans, Colts or Texans so I expect those odds to get much worse. But I'll wait and see.

11.30.18 Update

Man, good thing I didn't trust the Jags. At this point, I still have 4500 to spend, so I might as well use it up:

1000 on Chiefs to win AFC at +210
1000 on Pats to win AFC at +230
500 on Ravens to win division at +350
2000 on Chiefs to win division at -900

Spreading the Ball

Chiefs with TD Receptions
Hill
Kelce
Conley
Watkins
Sherman
Harris
Hunt
Robinson
Thomas

That's 9. The record in a season is 13 (Falcons.)

Chiefs that have Receptions but not TD Receptions
Ware
Williams
Kemp

Chiefs that have Rushes but not TD Receptions
Mahomes

At this rate, decent odds that Ware gets a TD pass, Williams could get one too eventually. Kemp is unlikely. Mahomes to Mahomes requires a fluke batted ball, but Kelce to Mahomes is in play.

Chiefs used to use Dontari Poe on the offense, so you never know, but it's going to be hard to find 13 players to catch balls.

The Difference One Week Makes

On August 30, the AFC West odds were:

LA +150
KC +265
OAK +325
DEN +400

The Chiefs are now the favorite all the way up to +140 while the raiders went from 3rd to an incredible +1000.

Chiefs going to the Super Bowl went from +1400 to +1200. For the moment, Oakland still has better odds of going to the playoffs than the Chiefs have of making the Super Bowl.

The Lions odds of winning their division dropped from +650 to +850.

Knowing what we know now and going off of current odds, the best values seem to be

Chiefs +140
Washington +600
Panthers +240
Rams -290
Jaguars Even


I mean, the Pats are -1300. So there's just not any value there. Meanwhile the Rams seems to almost be as good of a lock and they're only -290. The Chiefs are in the driver's seat and still at +140. The Eagles are -200 but why couldn't Washington be just as good?

I already have done two fake gambling methods, so I'm going to introduce a third. Method C will go on throughout the season, dispersing 10,000 fake dollars. From previous years, I already know that the first couple games don't determine the whole season, but perhaps I can find value in jumping on division winners before they get the kind of odds the Patriots already have.

To start Method C, let's go 1000 on Chiefs +140 and Rams -290. Not as good as the odds before the season, but likely to get less valuable throughout the season.

Edit: After Jaguars beat Pats in week 2, their division odds jumped from even to -160. But you can still get Chiefs +130. Rams -300. I know I'm biased but those are the three playoff teams I can pencil in after two games: Jaguars, Chiefs, Rams. So based on the odds, I'm loving Chiefs +130. I'm going another 2000 on Chiefs +130.

current mission impossible rankings

3, 5, 6 in some order
1, 4 in some order
2

holy shit, is it 5779 already?

The Pat Mahomes Era Starts With A Big Win

I typically don't try to make too much of one game, particularly the opening week when wonky stuff happens. But this was a big win for the Chiefs. Let's break it down.

In my head divisional games are worth 4 times as much as a single Chiefs result outside of the division. A win over say the Texans can be canceled out if the AFC West leaders win their game too. But beating the Chargers means giving them a loss, while a loss hurts the Chiefs and helps the Chargers.

The Chargers were the preseason favorite to win the division.

This was a Chiefs road game. Always good to start with a road win and still have 8 home games left. In fact, one of the Chiefs road games is actually a neutral site in Mexico City. Season just started and only 6 road games left.

This continues the streak of 9 straight wins for Chiefs over Chargers. It's nice to start the season by reminding the Chargers they can't stay on the same field as the Chiefs.

Mahomes is the real deal. He wasn't perfect and not every throw goes on the highlight reel. But for his first meaningful start, he played tough, smart and make enough plays to lead an offense to 31 points (the first TD was a punt return).

It helps that neither the 49ers nor the Steelers looked like world-beaters today. The path to opening 3-1 or even 4-0 seems more realistic now than it did 8 hours ago.

Oh yeah, and Eric Berry didn't play this game. Any time you can be down a great player and still get the W is a huge help.

In fact, the Chiefs were up 31-12. I think they let up off the gas on purpose, knowing they didn't need to pull out any more tricks.

NFL Predictions Roundup

Yahoo:

Yahoo likes Vikings, Packers, Steelers and Jaguars.


The Ringer's Super Bowl Picks

Mays: Rams over Vikings
Clark: Patriots over Vikings
Kelly: Saints over Patriots
McAtee: Rams over Patriots
Sherman: Rams over Patriots
Heifetz: Saints over Chargers

So the Ringers likes Rams, Patriots, Vikings and Saints.


NFL.com has 21 experts making picks which makes it hard to summarize, but their top teams to win the Super Bowl are Rams, Saints, Falcons.


Compositing all three sites, and here are the consensus top 8 teams.

Vikings
Packers
Rams
Saints
Falcons
Patriots
Steelers
Jaguars

Here are our Calcutta owners by number of these top 8 teams:

Kirat: 3
Niraj: 1
Dave: 1
Matt: 1
Savan: 1
Mark: 1

As a bonus, here is the Ringer's NFL Wins Pool draft, a vastly inferior version of our Calcutta auction. (The biggest flaw is doing a snake draft instead of an auction which robs the whole thing of validity. The other flaw is only doing wins not including the postseason.)

The consensus 8 is born out except for the inclusion of the Eagles.

I think the top 3 squads are easily Kevin, Riley and Bill. The key is the last pick. I think the Cowboys, Washington and Dolphins could all win 6 or 7, possibly more. I think it comes down to Kevin and Riley and the difference should be Watson's Texans vs Garoppolo 49ers (as I think Pats/Steelers and Dolphins/Cowboys are washes.) The people predicting Mal to win are insane. Seahawks and Broncos will be bad.

Edit: And I happened to see a Chiefs SB pick, so I'm including it.