2019 NFL Sportsbook

Last year, I used three methods and with an imaginary 30,000 stake turned it into 43,324, including all the vig. That's a strong success. Let's see how I do this year, learning from all my takeaways last year.

I had written this before Luck retired. But since it hadn't posted, I will consider that the bets not made. I will add edits.

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Let's start with AFC Divisional Odds, as of this writing (August 21, 2019)

I feel about the same on the Pats and Chiefs and much better odds on the Chiefs. First bet is easy.

2000 on Chiefs to win division at -150

My division winner in the North is a significant underdog, so I'll take that:

1000 on Ravens to win division at +300

I'm going to hedge in the AFC South:

500 on Colts -110 and 300 on Texans +285. As long as either of them win, I'll come out ahead.

With that extra 200, I'll take a flier on the Bills at +950.

That's 4000 well spent in the AFC division races.


Post-Luck-Retirement Update: 

Texans went from +285 to +130 because of one retirement not on their team. So that 800 I had split between Colts and Texans is void and I'm now going to put it all on... the Colts at +500. I might be crazy but I think that's great value.

Well, I unknowingly picked all the Vegas favorites. While that bodes well for my analysis it doesn't lend to great value on the board here.

The one I trust the most is the Eagles (because I don't trust the rest of their division) so let's do

1000 on Eagles -110

The North is to close to call and there's poor value for betting on Saints/Rams. So I'll stay away from the rest for now.

The NFC is kind of a crapshoot. Let's jump back to the AFC for odds to just get into the Super Bowl.

This probably isn't what Vegas sharps would do, but I trust the Pats and the Chiefs and I don't trust the Browns at all. So...

1500 on Patriots at +325 to make Super Bowl
1500 on Chiefs at +350 to make Super Bowl

I did this last year when their odds were +210 and +230 and it worked out incredibly well. I didn't even have to sweat the AFC title game.

I just did the math. If both teams were +325, this becomes a 3000 bet at -160. So it's not crazy good value...but I'd rather have money on either Pats or Chiefs make the Super Bowl at -160 than Rams or Saints win the division at -180.

So I've spent 8000 so far.

Let's spend the rest on homer picks.

1000 on Mahomes to go over 4650 passing yards at -110
800 on Chiefs over 10.5 wins -110
and what the hell, 200 on Chiefs to win the frigging Super Bowl at +800

2019 NFL Preview

I did this last year and it was fun so I'm doing it again. Let's go ahead and get the Chiefs out of the way first.

(I wrote this last week before Luck's retirement. I will leave what I had intact and add edits.)


AFC West

The Chiefs have won the division 3 years running. Last year, Mahomes was the MVP of the league in his first year starting. This is a Super Bowl caliber team. But if I was a Chargers fan and this blog was called Fish Taco Central, what would be the argument for LA? Well, the Chargers and Chiefs had the same record last year and beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead. The Chiefs have turnover on the defensive side, while the Chargers...I just can't do it anymore. The Chargers have the worst injury luck in the league and it's already started with Derwin James this year. Melvin Gordon is holding out. They don't have a home field advantage. They printed shirts for beating the Chiefs and they are 1-9 against KC over the last five years. Writers are assuming regression for Mahomes but I think the Chargers are a more likely regression candidate. They've got 9-7 written all over them. The Broncos will be a competitive 6-10 or 7-9 and the Raiders will fade out of Oakland in last place. Earlier this year I thought that a team can't suck so bad with a star like Antonio Brown...and this whole offseason is showing me that Brown and the Raiders are a match made in heaven. This has to be the easiest division in football to predict the order of finish. Chiefs have a tough schedule and might go 11-5 or 12-4 again, but I see them winning the division for the 4th straight time.

Division Winner: Chiefs

AFC East

Let's jump over to the Super Bowl Champs. This division is kind of the same story as last year right? Patriots are just miles ahead of the other teams. Everyone thinks the Dolphins are the worst team in football. I'm not convinced in Darnold/Bell/Gase but they should be better than last year's 4-12 finish. So the Bills are the only hope to end the Pats' AFC East reign. They should be decent, in contention for a wild-card spot. Allen's improvement plus a good defense feels like 9-7 might be in the cards. But the Pats win again. Now one of these years, Brady has to feel the effects of his age. I know I sound like cloud yelling at old man, but it's happened to Manning and Favre and every other player in the history of sports so I don't really see why it will never happen to him. Besides TB12, of course. Like, it's not unreasonable to think that he could get injured this year. But anyways, even without Gronk they'll still win the division and probably get home-field too.

Division Winner: Patriots

AFC South

I've said it ten times by now, but I think Watson vs Mahomes is the next Brady vs Manning. But the Texans don't instill a lot of confidence with their coaching and offensive line. The Jags are about to learn that Nick Foles magic only works when you put him in late in the season, not start the season with him. Seems like this is the last year of Mariota for the Titans. Meanwhile, the Colts are building an awesome team and have Andrew Luck healthy...what's that...Luck is hurt again and may not be ready for week one. Just when it seems clear to pick the Colts to win the division, you don't know what to make of Luck's health. Well, there were injury concerns heading into last year and he was fine so I'm going to assume the same for this year. I'm holding onto all of my Deshaun Watson stock and so I think the Texans are a wild-card team.

Division Winner: Colts

Post-Luck-Retirement Update: Well, shit. Without Luck, it's really hard to pick the Colts here. But I didn't trust the Texans 100%. So is there a chance for Titans to rise up and surprise? Or will the Colts luck into their next great QB? What the hell, I'll trust the Colts system and roster and keep this as-is. 


AFC North

The Bengals suck. So you've got the confident, new look Browns with Mayfield to Beckham...the run-first Ravens with Lamar Jackson trying to scramble on every play...and the Steelers without Bell and Brown, but they still have old Big Ben. The Steelers are still well coached and Juju is a fine #1. These three teams could finish in any order and it wouldn't surprise me. I'll guess Ravens 10-6 and Steelers and Browns both 9-7, but I'm not remotely confident in that. The Bengals suck.

Division Winner: Ravens



NFC West 

The Rams still seem to be the class of the division...except I'm not 100% sold on Goff and I'm wary of a Super Bowl hangover. The Seahawks will be good but not great. And the Cardinals have a new coach and a new QB. There will be flashes, but seems like a 4 or 5 win team. That leaves us with the 49ers. Last year Garoppolo got hurt in Week 3. So we don't really know what he's capable of yet. I'm thinking Cardinals finish 4th and 49ers 3rd. The Rams seem to have too much talent to not win, despite a potential hangover.

Division Winner: Rams

NFC East

So let's see the Giants sucked last year, lost Beckham, and are still starting Eli in week one before eventually handing over the reigns to a noodle-arm. Why aren't they the worst team in football again? Washington is going with a rookie QB which is the right move but seems like a five win team. So it's really down to the Cowboys or Eagles. Which for me is a question of can Wentz stay healthy for a full year. I don't actually think he can, but I'm still picking the Eagles. He's gotta play most of the games and the Cowboys aren't that good (especially with all the contract stuff) to win back to back division titles.

Division Winner: Eagles

NFC South

The Saints have been a Super Bowl caliber team two years in a row and came up short of the game. They still seem like the cream of the crop. None of the other teams had winning records last year, but someone will rise up to contend. The Panthers have a history of being flip-floppy so it wouldn't surprise me if they get back to their 2017 11-win total, while the Falcons still haven't recovered from 28-3. So I'm going Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Bucs.

Division Winner: Saints

NFC North

My perception of a team is always dominated by the quarterback. So every year that the Packers have been mediocre, I'm always shocked. Turns out there's more to a team than a QB. Three teams have a decent chance to fight for the division. The Bears were great last year but apparently are still haunted by the double doink. I don't believe in Cousins but I do believe in Thielen. I'm always tempted to pick the Packers but that hasn't worked out for me lately. And the Vikings are great at shitting the bed. So I guess I'm going to trust in the Bears defense and assume that Coach Nagy really isn't going to let one missed field goal destroy his entire 2019 season even though that's exactly what I actually think is going to happen.

Division Winner: Bears

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AFC Playoff Predictions

1 Patriots
2 Chiefs
3 Colts
4 Ravens
5 Browns
6 Texans

Post-Luck-Retirement Update: I'll move the Ravens up to the 3rd seed and drop the Colts to the 4th seed.

NFC Playoff Predictions

1 Saints
2 Eagles
3 Bears
4 Rams
5 Seahawks
6 Packers

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Super Bowl LIV

Chiefs over Saints

Madden 20

With Mahomes on the cover, I couldn't not try out Madden 20. (I play with 3 minute quarters so each game only takes about 20 minutes, but the stats aren't going to replicate a full NFL game's stats.)

I jumped into Franchise mode and after two games Damien Wilson comes to me and complains about not getting enough touches. I mean we're 2-0 and have the reigning MVP, but sure he wants his carries. When I reassure him that I'll get him in the game plan his morale goes up. In this video you can see the conversation and the first quarter how I tried to get him involved.

So the Chiefs win that game and then Watkins comes to me and says he's not getting enough balls thrown his way. Seriously? We're trying to win the freaking Super Bowl and started 3-0. Why is everyone cranky? So here's the first drive. I did get Watkins involved and then the craziest highlight I've had occurred at the end of this video.



And then at the end of the game, I figured I might as well take a shot on the last play of the game:



So we had a big win on SNF and I fed Watkins. We come off the field and here's what I see (at the 1:40 mark)



Seriously? -5 morale? He had the most receptions and yards. If it wasn't for the flukey 62-yard pass at the end to Hill, Watkins would have had 141 of the team's 203 passing yards. That's not good enough for him? Or is his pissed that Hill came up with two fluky bombs?

Pretty typical for Madden in the last 15 years, that there's a cool feature that ends up not working as well as advertised.

Most Desirable and Least Desirable Names in Football

Most Desirable 

Quarterback: Chuck Long
Running Back: Rock Cartwright
Fullback: Mack Strong
Wide Receiver: Mac Speedie
Offensive Line: Richie Incognito
Linebacker: Whitney Mercilus
Cornerback: Quentin Jammer
Safety: Darnell Savage
Kicker: Ryan Longwell


Least Desirable

Kicker: Chris Blewitt

Books I've Written

Bibliography as Written 

Roadside Attractions (2007) - This was only available through Lulu.com. Some friends bought printed copies and might still have them. This is equivalent to the rare, out-of-print first album.

Autopilot (2009) - This was originally available on Lulu.com. I also tried to get it traditionally published but no luck. So I self-published it on Amazon in 2011. Five years later I rewrote the ending, removed Autopilot from the store and re-published it as a new book: Bangs & Crashes. 

Pie for Breakfast (2013) - I self-published to Amazon paperback and ebook.

Choose Your Own Trump (2018) - I self-published this choose your own adventure in paperback on Amazon.


Bibliography as Currently Available

Pie for Breakfast (May 2013) - non-fiction personal essays
Bangs & Crashes (January 2016) - novel (fiction)
Choose Your Own Trump (January 2018) - choose your own adventure (fiction)

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I had to separate these lists so I could see when I actually finished. The whole re-mixing a book and republishing it kinda throws off the timeline.

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I'm starting a new book. It's kind of dumb to say that when I haven't written a word, but I've always been dumb in that way.

Hitman 2 Created Contract: Air Jordan

This video requires a bit of context. Hitman gives players the abilities to create custom contracts. I've created several and this one I titled "Air Jordan" because the target is Mike, a guy who sits on this beam 4 stories up. The target is very easy to kill, but the challenge is completing it with the silent assassin rating, and therefore getting the highest score.

To achieve silent assassin you must: 

• Kill only targets (others can be knocked out)
• Not be spotted, even by security cameras
• Not have any bodies found (exceptions are accidents or poisonings)

Next to the mini-map, there is a green icon. Green = silent assassin. If they turn red, you've done something to lose silent assassin. 

As for this particular challenge, shooting him with a sniper rifle is quite simple, but his body will be found, either by the guards on his floor or by the guards on the ground when his body falls. 

My first thought when creating it was that I could knock out all the guards on the ground level and with a well-timed sniper shot, his body wouldn't be found. 

But I decided to first try to go up to the 4th floor. I started knocking out all the guards using distractions. It takes a little while and the container only fits two bodies, so I had a lot of guards stacked up. I finally got to Mike and realized unlike every other character, he wasn't interested in investigating sounds. As I was trying to figure that out, someone came up and found a bunch of bodies. I was 10 minutes in and lost my silent assassin rating. 

Then I checked the leaderboard. Someone completed it in 2:46 with silent assassin. 

So clearly I needed a new strategy. I didn't have time to clear out the guards. 

Here's what I did, with an explanation underneath:

I realized that if I could use the tranquilizer gun it counts as poisoning so when Mike's body is found, it doesn't break my rating.

I tried climbing out the window near the starting point to use the tranquilizer, but I wasn't close enough for the shot to get to him. And then I discovered with that method that either he fell off himself but it lost the rating, or he didn't fall and was only knocked out.

So I thought tranquilizer might not work at all. But then I tried it with dumping his body personally and it worked.

To get the guards to turn around, I tried pulling the fire alarm and it worked great. Except that they would discover the guard I was knocking out to get his disguise. It took me a few more runs to think of using the tranquilizer on the first guard so that even if he gets spotted, it doesn't count.

Even with the right disguise, there are a few guards with white dots over them that know who all the guards are and can see through disguises. So I had to avoid them and the camera on the way out.

I suppose it looks pretty simple once it's done, but it was a lot of trial and error to figure out how to do it.

And my time? 2:34. Good enough for first place currently, though it could easily be beaten. 

Last Bowling of Summer

Today I rolled a 147 and then a 135.

The second game was frustrating as I opened with two strikes and then in third and fourth frame I had 9 on my first rolls...but failed to convert either spare. I only got two spares the rest of the way and squandered a great start and chance to not only break my personal record of 162, but I had a chance to break 200. If I had converted all my spares following the two opening strikes, I would have finished with 190. Add in a third strike and I'd be over 200.

Here are my bowling scores that I know of:
162, 122 and less than 122 - July 2012
137 - August 2015
147 - August 2016
133, 145, 145, 130 - June 2019
160* - July 2019
147, 135 - August 2019

I'm fairly consistent to hit one game in the 130s and one game in the 140s.