Mahomes and Moments

What I'm going to say next is very obvious, but I think I can explain it in ways that are less than obvious. 

I'm very happy that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl LIV.

I woke up today thinking about Patrick Mahomes MVP season in progress. And how different things would be if the Chiefs had lost Super Bowl LIV. 

Everyone from announcers to internet commenters would be saying that Mahomes is great in the regular season but does he have what it takes to win a title? They use lines like "That doesn't work in January" or "Playoff teams have him figured out" "Now that they've got him on tape, good defenses know how to defend him." He'd be getting compared to Dan Marino and lots of legitimate questions about if he'll ever win. Until you win once, you get questions about if it will ever happen. It happened to LeBron and he's won four titles now. 

I would be right there with him, wondering if the Chiefs are cursed, or just built in a way that they don't have enough defensive talent, or maybe it's the coaches that are getting outsmarted...the point is you can start to spiral as a fan. 

But now? People are comparing Mahomes to Brady, already in the conversation for greatest QB of all time. His first year: MVP. Second year: SB MVP. Third year: looks like MVP and SB MVP is in play. 

Legacies that last multiple decades hinge on moments. If Mahomes doesn't convert 3rd and 15 in the Super Bowl, his story is completely different. 

It also changes everything for me as a fan. I'm enjoying this season, but very relaxed through it all. It's just fun. Let me show you what I mean. 

At this point in the season, the Chiefs have essentially clinched the division already. So here are their possible outcomes. 

Lose before the AFC Championship

Lose in the AFC Championship

Lose in the Super Bowl

Win the Super Bowl

Here are my super-ballpark estimations of how likely each event is to happen:

Lose before the AFC Championship - 10%

Lose in the AFC Championship - 30%

Lose in the Super Bowl - 30%

Win the Super Bowl - 30%

In short, a great chance to win the Super Bowl, more than any other team in my estimation, but still 70% chance that they don't. And that's okay. It would be cool if they get more titles this decade, but if they don't, I'm still satisfied. It's already a dream come true. 

In years past, before Mahomes, before they were a real contender, the Chiefs had a 2-3% chance to win a Super Bowl every year with Alex Smith and I got my hopes up because I wanted it so bad. One moment, one game, can really change everything.