One Title Changes Everything

If you just change the outcome of Super Bowl LIV, everything is so different. 

All the talking heads and podcasts are talking about how Mahomes can't come through in the clutch. You wonder if your team is cursed. The memes hurt sting your core. 

There are legitimate questions if Reid needs to go. You lay awake at night and wonder what it feels like to see your team win a championship. You wonder if you'll die before experiencing it for yourself. 

This is where fans of Bills fans are right now. Josh Allen has proven a lot, but until he actually lifts the Lombardi trophy, you don't know if he'll win you a title. 

When you host AFC Championships in 2021 and 2022 and don't win the Super Bowl, it stings. But only because the expectations have been raised. I can still go walk the dogs in a Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Champions hoodie and not have to wonder what it feels like. 

- - -

It's hard to win the Super Bowl. 

The Chiefs have hosted the last 4 AFC Championship games at home. They're 2-2 in those games. 1-1 in the Super Bowl. 

4 great seasons. 1 championship. 

You look at great quarterbacks like Favre, Rodgers, Brees and they win one Super Bowl and had great careers. You look at QBs like Montana and Manning who won multiple Super Bowls and you appreciate how hard that is. And then you look at Brady in awe. The goat. 

- - -

The AFC is stacked with young quarterbacks. Allen. Herbert. Burrow. Mahomes. Jackson. Just getting the AFC Championship game is not going to be easy. Sure Mahomes is 4 for 4 but it's not always going to happen. You have to be able to appreciate the good times. This is an incredible run. And I still wouldn't rather have anyone else as my quarterback or head coach.

I always prayed, "just one." One time I want to experience this. And I did. So I'll never be anything but utterly grateful that it happened. (And it happened when I lived in Kansas City. And I got to go to a parade before the pandemic. It's all good.)

Daily Favorites: Chips & Dip

One of my absolute favorite football snacks is Ruffles and French Onion dip. At a Super Bowl party I can go through half a bag and half a tub of dip, no problem. 

Thing is neither part of the equation is healthy. So if I want to incorporate this into a healthy routine, like when my team is playing an important football game, for example, I need to make changes to both. 

The chips are a simple swap. These veggie chips include 38 chips for a 130 calorie serving, compared to 12 Ruffles for 160 calories. 

For dip, I'm turning to my #1 superstar ingredient, nonfat plain Chobani greek yogurt. 

I could have made a more complicated recipe by buying onion powder and adding other ingredients, but I found Mrs. Dash Onion & Herb. 

- - -

Dip Recipe

85g nonfat plain greek yogurt

mrs dash onion & herb

salt

pepper

(basil and oregano optional)

I made it quite oniony this time and I loved it. Was a little too strong for the boys. Next time I think I should add some basil and oregano to give more herbiness. Could also add a squeeze of lemon if I wanted to get fancy. 

But that amount of yogurt is only 45 calories and enough for the whole bowl of chips. So we're coming in at 175 calories for a pretty satisfying chips and dip snack. 

For the same amount of store bought dip, you're looking at 180 calories instead of 45. And the same amount of chips, I'd say about 400 calories. So without these swaps, chips and dip is 600 calories instead of 175.

 

Fixing NFL Overtime, Again

So back in 2010, NFL overtimes were sudden death even in the playoffs. You could win the toss. Gain 30-40 yards, kick a field goal and win the game. 

This seemed too easy, creating too much of an advantage for the winner of the coin toss. In 2010, I explored proposals to change the sudden death system.

The NFL made a change that took effect in 2012, that if the first team scored a field goal, the second team would still get a chance. 

This was an improvement and seemed to make things more fair. 

- - -

In the 2018-2019 AFC Championship, the Patriots and Chiefs went to overtime. Patriots won the coin toss, drove the field for a touchdown and won without Mahomes getting to touch the ball. 

In the offseason, the Chiefs proposed a rule change that would ensure both teams get to have a possession. It didn't even have enough support to get a league vote. 

Chiefs fans were told to get over it. Make a stop. 

Three years later, the two best teams in the AFC faced off again in the playoffs. It went to overtime. And the team that won the coin toss got a touchdown and won the game. 

Now, the conversation has shifted. More people are realizing it's not really fair to have such weight on a single coin toss. 

Here's the thing: Modern playoff teams are typically offense-driven. Combined with the fact that defenses are gassed after playing for 60 minutes, it really has shifted the odds heavily in favor of the team that wins the coin toss. 

I've seen two more good points this week that made sense to me: 

1. In baseball, it wouldn't feel right if extra innings ended in the top of the 10th, even if the road team scored 4 runs. 

2. To the "defense is part of the game, make a stop" crowd...the Chiefs defense didn't have to make a stop on Sunday. The Patriots defense didn't have to make a stop 3 years ago. So because of a coin toss, we've shifted the responsibility to half of an NFL team. 

So any proposal should address the weight of the coin toss on a game, and should involve the offense and the defense of both teams in the overtime period. 

Let's look at some proposals and see what makes the most sense. 

Proposal #1: Both teams guaranteed a possession. If still tied, then sudden death. 

This is actually one of my least favorites. If this was in effect two days ago and the Bills tie it up, then we're back to the 2010 rules where all the Chiefs need is a field goal. Offenses and defenses are involved but the coin toss still matters a lot. 

Proposal #2: Play a full 10-minute or 15-minute period. 

I don't love this one either. Forcing players to play 75 minutes is probably too long. 10 minute OT and one team could try to hold the ball and drag the clock out. And you could still be tied after all of this anyways.

Proposal #3: Keep the current rules but remove the coin toss. Home team gets ball. 

This might sound dumb at first, but by removing the coin toss and making it known what happens in advance, it's more fair. The road team can now choose to play for the win. The Bills might have gone for 2 with 13 seconds left if OT was less desirable. At least knowing in advance, you can't complain that the toss didn't go your way. 

Proposal #4: College format from the 40, home team goes 2nd. 

Here we've removed the coin toss and are involving the offenses and the defenses. A defensive stop could win you the game as you don't start in gimme field goal range. We reward higher seeds with byes and homefield already, going 2nd in OT isn't that much more far-fetched. Again, knowing this in advance makes it more fair in regulation.

Proposal #5: College format from the 25, no field goals allowed. 2 point conversions mandatory.

We can still have a coin toss here, but we've removed the advantage of going 2nd. There's no information gained. Both teams have to go for a TD and 2-pt no matter what. It will take offense and defense to win the game.

Proposal #6: Spot and choose, sudden death.

Road team picks the spot where the OT drive starts from, home team picks offense or defense. In Sundays game anything from the 10 and up and I think the Chiefs pick offense. But if the Bills say let's start at the 3 yard line, 97 yards away from a TD, do the Chiefs still pick offense? Adds a lot of strategy. But doesn't really feel like NFL.

Proposal #7: Secret auction, sudden death.

Whoever picks the furthest yard line away gets the ball. The coaches write a number in an envelope. The ref reads it out. If the Bills pick the 12 and the Chiefs pick the 9, the Chiefs start OT on their own 9. Again, very strategic, very unlike normal football.

I basically think 1 and 2 are worse than what we have now, and 3 through 7 are an improvement. I think #5 is the simplest solution that solves the issues and we've seen it play out in college, so we're used to the idea already. (In a way that fans aren't ready for 6 or 7.) So let's go with #5.

AFC Championship Preview

In the first 48 AFC Championship Games, the Chiefs played in one, on the road. 1 out of 48. 

Since starting Mahomes, the Chiefs have hosted the AFC Championship every time. 4 out of 4. 

Draft Mahomes and the AFC runs through Arrowhead every year. That's the floor with this guy. Insane.

- - -

Before Mahomes, the Chiefs were last in AFC Championship appearances among non-expansion teams. Behind such "cursed" franchises as the Browns, Bills and Bengals despite a better win-loss record. Before Mahomes, the Chiefs basically set the standard for playoff futility. 

Before Andy Reid, Chiefs fans would argue to be represented alongside the Vikings, Bills, Browns, Lions for most tortured fan bases. 

Patriots fans grew up losing and had a chip on their shoulder. Then they paired Brady with Belichick and won 6 Super Bowls. They became the smug, entitled villains of NFL fanbases. 

In just a few years, I went from identifying with tortured fans to assholes. It truly can happen to anyone. 

- - -

In the playoffs, you face the best version of a team. The Chiefs didn't play the version of the Bills that lost to the Jaguars. We're not going to see the Bengals that lost to the Bears, Jets or Browns. Just as the Chiefs won't be the team that lost to the Titans, Bengals or Bills. 

- - -

The Bengals are 2-0 in AFC Championship games in 1981 and 1988. Both times they went to the Super Bowl they lost to the 49ers. 

- - -

A look back at the last 3 AFC Championships with Mahomes:

vs Patriots: 31-37 (OT) 

vs Titans 35-24

vs Bills 38-24

so, based on that trend, I'm guessing...

vs Bengals 41-24

- - -

Mahomes is now 8-2 in the playoffs with his two losses both coming against Tom Brady. 

Andy Reid's march onto the Mount Rushmore of NFL coaches is right on track. 

- - -

Bengals fans were talking a lot of shit after they beat us in the regular season. Let's see who's talking in 7 days.

Bills at Chiefs: Playoff OT Thriller

 

I've seen Chiefs-Rams in 2018 where both teams lit up the scoreboard for 105 points. 

I've seen Chiefs-Broncos in 2016 that ended with a doink in overtime. 

And now I've seen Chiefs-Bills in the 2022 playoffs.

- - -

With 11 minutes to go in the game, the Chiefs were up 23-21 and had a drive starting at the Bills 16 following a great punt return from Hill. 

The path to victory is to score a touchdown, make it a two-possession game. On 3rd and 1, the Chiefs run a cute option play but the Bill sniff it out. A little too cute. Chiefs settle for a field goal and now the Bills get the ball with 8:55 to go, down 21-26. 

A Bills touchdown here feels inevitable. My only concern is getting the ball back so that Mahomes has a chance. With 9 minutes to go, it seems like a certainty. But the Bills play this drive patiently. Convert 3rd and 3, 3rd and 4, 3rd and 1. All of a sudden there are only 4 minutes remaining. I'm freaking out. Just blitz so you can get the ball back. 

There's a 4th and 4 with 2:48 where Josh Allen is a hero. 

And then 4th and 13 at the two minute warning. For a second it actually looks like the Chiefs could win the game on a defensive stop. Hahaha.

Allen converts this one by throwing it to Davis wide open in the end zone. Davis had already caught two touchdowns at this point, but sure he's wide open in the end zone. 

But whatever. The Chiefs get the ball back with 1:54. At least Mahomes gets a chance. I'm thinking the Bills scored too soon. 

And then the Chiefs did something really silly. They scored too soon. 

Earlier this year, I wrote about scoring too soon. Your goal is not to score. You have to score and consider the clock. 

Tyreek scores from 64 yards out with 1:02 remaining. If he slides down inside the 5, could have tried to let some clock run or force the Bills to use timeouts. If the refs had whistled Tyreek for taunting, it would have been 15 yards from the 15. Honestly I think that helps the Chiefs' chances of winning. 

The Chiefs' secondary was banged up and had no chance of stopping the Bills with a full minute remaining and three timeouts. The Chiefs couldn't even force a third down on that drive. My family came in to watch at this point and I told them before the Bills had crossed midfield that the Chiefs were going to lose on a touchdown. 

Sure enough with 13 seconds left, Davis catches his 4th touchdown of the night. A playoff record!

The announcers are talking about everything that Allen did to win the game. The Bills kick the xp and kick it deep. No squib. 

Mahomes get the ball at his 25. Pass to Hill gets 19 yards in 5 seconds. Pass to Kelce gets 25 yards in 5 seconds. Butker 49 yarder to tie at the buzzer. 

The Bills scored with 13 seconds left and it was too much time for Mahomes. 

- - -

Whoever won the coin toss was going to win this game. 

As the road team, the Bills got to call the coin toss. Allen called tails. It was heads. 

The only 3rd down the Chiefs faced in OT was a 3rd and 1. 

Mahomes 4 tds, 378 passing yards, 69 rushing yards
Allen 4 tds, 329 passing yards, 68 rushing yards

If this game had college OT rules, it could have gone to 7 OT. 

I saw a Bills fan tweet that Mahomes wasn't better than Allen, he was just luckier because the Chiefs won the coin toss. The thing is...he's not wrong. Allen would have gone down and scored, 100%. And the current OT rules make the coin toss more valuable than they should be. The Chiefs got screwed in the 2019 AFC Championship game when Mahomes didn't touch the ball in OT. And now Allen got screwed tonight by the same rules. 

By the way, if the Bills had won one more game in the regular season, this game would have been in Buffalo. And if it went to OT, Allen wouldn't have been able to call tails. 

- - -

The theme of the year was Never Count Out The Chiefs. It started in Week One when KC came back against Cleveland. 

In the middle of the season KC lost to the Bills and Titans and everyone started counting them out.

It came back in Week 15 when the Chiefs came back vs the Chargers that would help get them homefield.

I think most people counted them out with 13 seconds left. But turns out, that wasn't necessary. 

Earlier in the week, I had saved screenshots of everyone picking the Bills and Buffalo fans talking trash. I wasn't convinced that Allen-Mahomes was a rivalry yet. But after winning like this, Bills fans don't deserve my chirping. If it couldn't be the Chiefs, the fans of Buffalo and Cincinnati would be very deserving. 

Oh and one more thing: the Chiefs drive to get a field goal following a touchback took less time than Dak's run last week.

Go to hell, Isabel

This Costa Rican bot gave me so much trouble. Every time she puts you in check, this is what you see. The exclamation point really rubs it in.

I was winning and was down to a rook vs knight endgame. And then I blundered my rook in a fork. But somehow I was able to promote a pawn and win the game. 

I've now beaten two advanced bots. And I'll never have to hear Jaque! again.

Lions Playoff Update

I thought of this post over the weekend but didn't do it because I was getting the hint that I was too mean to my friends. So I let it go. 

And then I got this comment:

Ask and ye shall receive. 

Here is a chart from 2015 showing the last playoff win for each NFL team. 

If you direct your attention at the left side of the chart there are 5 teams that as of 2015 hadn't won a playoff game in the 21st century. 

Well since this chart was made, the Chiefs have won 8 playoff games including a Super Bowl.

The Bills have won 3.

The Browns have won 1. 

The Bengals have won 1.

In fact, the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals are all still active in the playoffs this year and the Browns were a preseason favorite who's season got derailed due to injuries.

Which leaves one franchise who hasn't won a playoff game since Silence of the Lambs came out. 

1 year of Bush.

8 years of Clinton. 

8 years of Bush. 

8 years of Obama.

4 years of Trump.

2 years of Biden.

Okay fine, it's been a long time. But because they've been bad for so long, I'm sure they've spent one of their top picks on a good QB and are ready to turn things around.

Wild-Card Weekend Update

Let's start here: From 1994 to 2013, the Chiefs were 0-7 in the playoffs. Seven times they were good enough to make the playoffs and they lost their very first playoff game every time. 

Three of those seasons, the Chiefs went 13-3 in the regular season. Let's go deeper. Here are the playoff seeds during that run:

6
1
1
2
6
4
5

So 4 of those losses were at Arrowhead. Three were as a team with a playoff bye. You're not supposed to lose those. The 2003 loss (no punt game) and 2013 loss (epic comeback), both against the Colts, stand out in my mind.

This franchise couldn't win a playoff game no matter what.

- - -

This is Year 4 of Mahomes being the starter and the Chiefs have won a playoff game every year. 

7-2 so far. (Only two losses were to Brady.)

Here is the list of QB playoff wins. Mahomes has already passed Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Unitas. He's one away from Steve Young and Marino. He's halfway to Peyton and Elway. One more win and he's halfway to Montana. The only QB with more wins and a better winning percentage is Jim Plunkett.

You want another stat? Here.

He already has the record for most 400 yard, 5td games.

- - -

8 teams left. A lot of good stories left to be written on the field.

Antonio, Suck on this

Over the last week, I've played this smug Paraguayan bot at least 50 times. He's rated 1500 and the first advanced level bot. Today, I finally beat him.

I traded queens early, he blundered a rook, and I played a solid endgame to close the deal.

No guarantees that I get better enough to beat any of the other three advanced bots, but at least I beat one once. 

2021 NFL Prediction Recaps

Calcutta Draft Thoughts I feel like these have held up pretty well. Even nailed the general order of how we would finish. To be accurate, I did need the help of an all-time choke job from Matt's teams. Not long ago the Ravens were the #1 seed, the Chargers were playing for a division title, and the Colts were going to be the team no one wanted to face. Yikes. Oh yeah, and the Cardinals dropped from the best record in the league to a wild-card spot. Oof.

2021 NFL Preview Before the seasons started, I went 6 of 8 on division winners. I picked the Chiefs over Packers which is looks like a ticket you'd want to own right now. Hard to believe I give these picks out for free.

Early Playoff Picture After Week 6, I wrote that 5 NFC teams seemed safe (Cardinals, Bucs, Packers, Cowboys and Rams), that Giants and Lions were a cross-off, and that the two wild-card spots would come down to Saints, Vikings, Bears, Panthers. The 49ers were 2-3 and the Eagles were 2-4. Good job by both to fight back.

On the AFC side, I thought there were 5 safe teams (Bills, Ravens, Chargers, Chiefs and Titans) with the Raiders seeming fine without Gruden and the Bengals and Browns fighting for a wild-card spot. I mentioned every AFC North team except the Steelers and nobody would have mentioned the Patriots. 

The Chiefs Path to Super Bowl LVI

Here's what we know for sure. The #2 seed Chiefs will be hosting the #7 seed Steelers at Arrowhead stadium on Sunday night. 

Win that and the Chiefs will host the best remaining team of seeds 3-5 while the lower seeded team will head to Tennessee to the play the Titans. The Bills is the likely matchup for the Chiefs here, although could be Bengals or Raiders.

After that is the AFC Championship. If the Titans lose their first game, the Chiefs host their 4th straight AFC Championship Game vs the team that upset the Titans. If the Titans win, then it's a rematch of the AFC Championship from two years ago, but this time in Nashville.

Chess Progress

In late November, our family got into chess. In early December, I was playing on Chess.com vs the computer bots and I could beat the beginner bots with ratings of 250, 400 and 700. I could beat the first intermediate bot rated 1000 but not the 1100 or 1300 intermediate bot. So around December 10 I would say I would be rated 1050.

Now after playing about 100-200 games with Mrs. Hoagie Central, I've beaten the 1100 and 1300 bot.

The three crowns means I beat them without any assistance, including taking back a move. So currently I've beaten all the intermediate bots. Next up is advanced: 4 bots at 1500, 1600, 1800 and 2000. 

(After that there are two master bots at 2200 and 2300 and a grandmaster at 2650.)

So currently between I'm between intermediate and advanced.