NFL 17% Check-In

We're three weeks into a 17-game season. That's 17% of the way through the season. Time for your traditional 17% check-in. 

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I'd like to start in a place that I bet no one else is talking about, because it worked out in the end.

I hated the Packers decision to kick the field goal with 2:39 to go in the game. 4th and 4 from the SF 20. You're already up 3. If you get a touchdown here you can seal the game. I always hate extending a lead from 3 to 6. When a team is trailing by 3 late, they are relatively conservative. They want to get into field goal range. They will kick a field goal on 4th down. But a team trailing by 4-6 points is desperate. They have to get a touchdown. They know they have to drive the whole field so they go deep. When you're aggressive, good things happen. If I'm the Packers, I'd rather have a 3 point lead than a 6 point lead. But I really rather have a 10 point lead. 

4th and 4. You have a chance to win. Take it. Even if you don't get it, they only have the ball on their 20. 

Flashback to the NFC Championship game. Down 8 with 2 minutes to go. 4th and goal from the 8. You need 8 points. Tom Brady is on the other sideline. You have to go for it. The Packers kick a field goal and never see the ball again. 

Packers had a whole offseason to reconsider being aggressive and didn't. 

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The 49ers are down 6. Your objective is not score a touchdown. Your objective is score a touchdown with as little time remaining as possible. You score with 40 seconds left and you let the Packers keep a timeout? With a touchback coming out to the 25, it's not that hard to get into field goal range with 40 seconds and a timeout. You gotta get it under 25 seconds, and you have to make them use their last timeout. 

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Here are the ranking of the top 7 teams by current Vegas odds to win the NFC, with our Calcutta owners:

Bucs - Savan

Rams - Dave

Packers - Dave

49ers - Savan

Seahawks - Niraj

Saints - Kirat

Cowboys - Dave / Cardinals - Matt

Here are the ranking of the top 7 teams by current Vegas odds to win the AFC, with our Calcutta owners:

Chiefs - Mark

Bills - Niraj

Ravens - Matt

Browns - Kirat

Chargers - Matt

Titans - Mark

Broncos - Savan

Vegas not yet a believer in the 3-0 Panthers or Raiders. For Loser Money, there are five 0-3 teams:

Mark's Lions, Kirat's Jaguars and Jets, Matt's Colts and Giants.

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Feeling real good about my Rams and Packers, Matthew Stafford thriving theory, 

Not so good about Pats stealing the division back from the Bills. 

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Chiefs need to get right against the Eagles and then have a huge game against the Bills in Week 5. 

I know I was all galaxy brain that Ravens loss was good for the long-term 2021 outlook of the Chiefs, but uh, they kinda need to win the next two to get back in the hunt. Chiefs will be fighting with Bills for homefield. That game is a monster.