Last week, I found Bill Connelly's magic spreadsheet where he finds the biggest differences between his projections and the spreads. So how did he do?
San Diego State -6: LOSS
Nevada PK: WIN
Kentucky -16.5: WIN
Boise State +3: LOSS
Buffalo +24: WIN
Notre Dame +17.5: WIN
Pittsburgh -7.5: LOSS
Rice +32.5: LOSS
Ole Miss -21.5: LOSS
Minnesota -36.5: WIN
Kent State +22.5: LOSS
BYU -12: WIN
6 wins, 6 losses. That will lose you money every time.
If you had played his top 3 or top 5 bets, you could have won. But his very best bet was a huge loser. So none of these are guaranteed.
Maybe...maybe...his projections will get better as the season goes on and learns more about the teams.
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