The Justin Fields Dilemma

The Bears had the #1 pick in the 2023 draft. They traded it away for an incredible haul. 

Now the Bears again own the #1 pick in the 2024 draft. 

We've seen three seasons of Justin Fields at QB. There have been some highs and lows. In the esteemed Hoagie Central ranking, Fields came in as the 16th best QB heading into 2024. 

So there are two main paths ahead for the Bears:

Keep Fields

1. Trade down from #1 like you did last year, get a package of picks, maybe a player

2. Use this haul to build around Fields, offensive line, defense, etc.

3. Extend Fields to a Daniel Jones level contract if you can

Trade Fields

1. Take Caleb Williams at #1, take OL with their other first rounder

2. Trade Fields for a 2nd rounder 

3. Reset the clock with a QB on a rookie contract for the next 4 years

So let's dive in a little bit. 

If you keep Fields, he's a known quantity. He's not a bust. He's shown signs of brilliance. If he had a better team around him, it's easy to see how he could grow into being a top 8 QB. By not spending the #1 pick on a single player, you can get a lot of help for the value of the pick. The Lions have shown that you can build a team from the trenches and get some good receivers and elevate a Goff from a top 20 guy to a top 10 guy. 

On the other hand, having a QB on a rookie contract is the most valuable thing in the NFL. With the cap space, you can add talent around Williams. You kick the can down the road and start over with a rookie that's an unknown NFL quantity. He could be Mahomes. He could be a bust. Anything's in play. You get the value that you can from Fields now without having to pay him. If Williams isn't significantly better than Fields, you've saved money on the contract but you've also given up the draft haul that trading the pick could have brought in. 

- - - 

So what do you do?

A lot will come down to the contract. If Fields wants a Hurts level contract, it's better to move on now. If he'll take a Jones or Carr level contract, then you can extend him and have stability at the position instead of starting over. 

Keeping Fields will lead to steady growth, giving you a good chance of competing for division titles and building a steady winner. But can you win a Super Bowl against Lamar or Mahomes with Fields?

Trading Fields is riskier. You're hitching your star to the fortune of a new guy. There's maybe a 15% chance that the new guy is a huge improvement over Fields but there's also a 15% chance that the new guy is a bust.