MVS

All of these things can be true:

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has generally been disappointing as a receiver in Kansas City. Here are his 2023 regular season stats. 

21 catches on 42 targets. Neither number is great, but when put together, he's got the lowest catch rate on the team. Sure some of his targets are tougher, but generally it's a hands issue. 

He also made clutch plays in the playoffs. Last year in the AFC Championship win over the Bengals, this year made tough catches vs Buffalo, game-sealing catch vs Baltimore, and the only TD of regulation in the Super Bowl. 

Justin Watson's 2024 cap hit is under $3 million. MVS's 2024 cap hit would have been $12 million. So he's not producing based on what he's getting paid. 

It is Veach's job to improve the team, and one of the biggest problems this year was the WR room. Veach clearly feels like that $12M can be better spent elsewhere and I agree.

This is also true: MVS came to the Chiefs, played for two years, and they won two Super Bowls. And they don't win if he drops a few more passes in the playoffs.

Alkaline Trio: Album Tierlist

I've been a fan of Alkaline Trio for 24 years now. They just released a new album and I've been listening to it non-stop. 

It's so good that it inspired me to make this chart, based on my subjective assessment. 

Now that tierlist isn't going to mean much to anyone that's not a fan already, but I do want to spell it out chronologically:

Goddamnit (1998) ★★★★★

Maybe I'll Catch Fire (2000) ★★★★½

Alkaline Trio (2000) ★★★★★

From Here to Infirmary (2001) ★★★★★

Good Mourning (2003) ★★★★½

Crimson (2005) ★★★★★

Agony & Irony (2008) ★★★★½

This Addiction (2010) ★★★

My Shame Is True (2013) ★★★

Is This Thing Cursed? (2018) ★★★½

Blood, Hair, and Eyeballs (2024) ★★★★★

All of their first seven albums to me are great (4.5 or 5 stars). 

Then their next three were all on a lower level, some good moments, but clearly not as good (3 or 3.5 stars). 

So for them to come out with this in 2024, I'm kinda blown away. 

Their first great album since 2008. Their first 5-star album since 2005. 

I'm not able to attend their 2024 tour and that's probably okay considering I'm 40. 

I also don't wear band shirts really anymore. To which Mrs. Hoagie Central said that's a good thing because I'm 40. To which I replied, what the hell does that mean

I watched some of the live show videos, I even made a playlist in Spotify to match their first show in Anaheim. 

Then I went one step further and made my dream setlist.

And I've done enough listening that I think my 2024 Spotify Wrapped is already a wrap.

The Franchise

So the Chiefs starting making their own documentary series with mic'd up footage and behind-the-scenes access and all that good stuff. They picked the right season to start—2019 which would capture the road to their first Super Bowl in 50 years. 

Mostly for myself, here are the links to the four seasons of content:

Season One: 2019-20 (Super Bowl LIV)

They skipped 2020-21 because of Covid. 

Season Two: 2021-22 (Last Episode is 13-Second Game)

Season Three: 2022-23 (Super Bowl LVII)

Season Four: 2023-24 (Super Bowl LVIII)

Kinda wild to produce four seasons of a documentary and have three end in a Super Bowl victory, and the other ends with the most dramatic playoff victory in the NFL in the modern era. 

Quick note on the 2020-21 Chiefs. That team was the most dominant of all the Mahomes era teams. That team was 14-1 heading into the final week of the regular season with the #1 seed locked up. In contrast, this year's team was 10-6 heading into the final week of the regular season. That 2020 team finished with three offensive lineman on injured reserve, including both tackles. Fisher, Schwartz and Osemele. And Fisher got injured in the AFC Championship. Without those injuries, it would have been a Super Bowl for the ages with a legit Brady vs Mahomes battle. But all credit to Tampa Bay for that one. They won on both sides of the ball that day. 

Anyways, I've watched a few moments here and there over the years, but this could be some good offseason content to watch all four seasons. 

Most Super Bowl Rings Championship Belt / Ways Mahomes Can Be Historic

I titled the post Championship Belt because I think that's the quickest get, but I am going to consider ties at the top level. So it's really more like joining the top tier than one team owning a belt, if that makes sense. 

ONE

Packers win the first Super Bowl.

TWO

Packers go back to back and set the mark at two rings right away. 

Dolphins join the Two club with wins in VII and VIII.

Steelers join this level with their own back to back in IX and X.

Then Cowboys join the top level at the time with a win in XII to go along with their previous win in VI.

THREE

Steelers win in XIII to have the top level all to themselves.

FOUR

Steelers go back to back again. They're on four and no other team is on three yet. It's 1980.

In 1990, the 49ers join the top level with their 4th ring in nine years.

In 1994, the Cowboys get their 4th ring.

FIVE

In 1995, the 49ers become the first team to win 5 Super Bowls.

The very next year, the Cowboys win again and match them with five.

Steelers get their one for the thumb in XL in 2006. 

SIX

Steelers once again reclaim the top level in 2009.

Patriots join the top level with their sixth trophy in 2019.

- - -

Who's trying to join the Steelers and Patriots at the top?

The Cowboys and 49ers are just one away from tying the Steelers and Patriots with the most rings.

Then the Packers, Chiefs and Giants are all two away. 

The Packers haven't been in the top level since 1979. They got their 4th trophy in 2011 when the top level was already six.

The Giants have never been in the top level. They got their 4th trophy in 2012 when the top level was already six.

The Chiefs have never been in the top level. They got their 4th trophy in 2024 when the top level was already six.

For the bulk of NFL history, the Steelers, Cowboys and 49ers have had a claim as the most successful team. 

Then out of nowhere, Brady wins six for the Patriots vaults them past the Cowboys and 49ers and in the highest level.

While everyone is talking about Mahomes vs Brady, THIS is the chase that I want to focus on. Mahomes only trails the Pats/Steelers by two, instead of trailing Brady by four. Of course, taking the very top level in this category hinges on being the first to seven. Which means not only winning three more, but winning three more before Pats/Steelers get one or Cowboys/49ers get two.

Personally, I think if Mahomes could get three more, and there's a parade where the Chiefs are the only franchise with seven trophies, that's something tangible. 

(Also, notice that the Chiefs have beaten the 49ers twice. Those go the other way and 49ers are on Seven, Chiefs on two.)

GOAT conversations are tricky. Do you go only by rings? People debate Jordan vs LeBron, usually not including Bill Russell in the conversation. Does head-to head or stats matter more?

- - -

There are a few things you can do to be HISTORIC.

1. Go undefeated. Only one team went undefeated and won the Super Bowl. Tom Brady came damn close.

2. Win consecutive championships. Nine teams have gone back-to-back. But only three since the salary cap and free agency began in 1994. No team has ever won three in a row. 

3. Have the most trophies. Right now two franchises are tied for having the most trophies, but only four have ever had a claim to the most trophies since 1980. That number was three until 2019 when New England won #6. I know that meant something.

For Mahomes, going undefeated is technically on the table, but it's also insanely difficult. 

Doing a threepeat? Also insanely difficult, but this is your one chance. If you don't win LIX, it's not going to happen. 

Getting the most trophies? I mean asking a guy to win three more in his career when he's already won three is definitely greedy. But if he plays for 14 more seasons, I feel like the Vegas odds of him getting three more rings would be somewhat close to even odds, like betting on heads or tails. (While the odds of winning LIX are currently like 6-1.)

- - -

As always, I've said that I would be satisfied with winning one Super Bowl. It happened, I got to go to the parade, and it changed my life. 

If Caleb Williams comes into the league and wins 8 of the next 10 Super Bowls, and he becomes the GOAT, good for him and whatever team drafts him. I have no room to complain or whine about anything from here on out.

But I'm also not going to take this greatness for granted. If Mahomes keeps climbing the ladder and keeps racking up incredible achievements, I'll still be here writing it down for posterity and sitting and watching in awe.

In about 2043, Patrick Mahomes will be enshrined in Canton, Ohio and I'd love to be there to hear his speech in person. Everything that happens along the way is gravy.

Master List of Chiefs/Mahomes/Reid Stats

I've been posting Mahomes stats constantly over the last 6 years, but I can never remember where the good ones are. So starting now, I'm making this post have all the big/good stats, and I'll just refer back to this post. 

Updated through Super Bowl LVIII

Let's start with the big ones. 

Super Bowl Rings - AFC West Standings

Chiefs: 4

Broncos: 3

Raiders: 3

Chargers: 0

Funny how winning 3 rings really quickly does wonders for your divisional standings.

Super Bowl Rings - Quarterbacks with 3+

Brady: 7

Montana: 4

Bradshaw: 4

Mahomes: 3

Aikman: 3

Morrall: 3

Okay, so trailing Brady by four, still not close. But wait, I have a trick up my sleeve...

Super Bowl Rings - Teams with 4+

Patriots: 6

Steelers: 6

Cowboys: 5

49ers: 5

Chiefs: 4

Giants: 4

Packers: 4

I did a deep dive into this here. Chiefs only trail Patriots/Steelers by two. So in a hypothetical world where Mahomes ends with 6 rings, trailing Brady by one... the Chiefs have 7 and pass the Patriots, assuming that none of these teams goes on a run.

Regular Season MVPs + Super Bowl MVPs 

Brady: 3 + 5 = 8

Peyton: 5 + 1 = 6

Mahomes: 2 + 3 = 5

Montana: 2 + 3 = 5

Rodgers: 4 + 1 = 5

Mahomes in 6 seasons has caught up to Montana in total MVPs for his 16-season career.

Most NFL playoff wins for Starting Quarterbacks

Brady: 35

Montana: 16

Mahomes: 15

Bradshaw/Peyton/Elway: 14

NFL playoff wins for Head Coaches

Belichick: 31

Reid: 26

Landry: 20

Shula: 19

When I first paid attention to this stat, it was February 2020 and Reid had 15. I said it was entirely realistic that he could pass Landry. Well, he's added 11 playoff wins in 4 years. Reid just added 4 this year. What used to be an unbreakable record, now looks within reach. 

All-Time Winning Record

This one is a slow-moving one. If you took Mahomes regular season record of 74-22, and doubled it as an approximation of the next six years, it still only takes the Chiefs percentage up to .562. That clip is unrealistic to maintain anyways, so best to lower expectation on this one. It would be twice as easy for Lamar to affect the Ravens percentage because they've played half as many games. 

Just a year ago, Chiefs were in 8th place all-time, and I think they were around 11th or so before Mahomes. 

Lamar Hunt Trophies (AFC Championships)

Patriots: 11

Steelers, Broncos: 8

Dolphins: 5

Chiefs, Raiders, Bills: 4

Colts, Bengals: 3

Ravens: 2

Titans, Chargers: 1

Jets, Browns, Jags, Texans: 0

Mahomes Entire Career

2018: Loss in AFC Championship, Overtime to Patriots

2019: Win in Super Bowl LIV, over 49ers

2020: Loss in Super Bowl LV, to Bucs

2021: Loss in AFC Championship, Overtime to Bengals

2022: Win in Super Bowl LVII, over Eagles

2023: Win in Super Bowl LVIII, over 49ers

The Complete List of all QBs drafted since 2013 to win a Super Bowl: 

Patrick Mahomes 

What It Was Like Just 5 Years Ago

These days, the Chiefs are the villains of the NFL. But just five years ago, Chiefs fans were a punching bag. Here's a taste of what it was like, all from ONE single reddit thread on r/nfl. It was posted immedaitely after the Dee Ford offsides AFC Championship. All screenshots taken today.

Pretty fucking savage. Even Steelers fans ganging up on the Chiefs.

For the record, the Patriots would win LIII two weeks after this post, but haven't won a playoff game since, let alone go back to the Super Bowl.

Even Chiefs fans faced the reality. 

Since this moment, the Chiefs have won 4 AFC Championships, Bengals 1. It literally became the Arrowhead Invitational for 5 years in a row.

This stat was about Brady, but now Mahomes is up to two.

If a Chiefs fan admits their failures, 202 upvotes. If a Chiefs fan tries to trash talk, 2 upvotes. Bhay99 was a prophet, canadianbroncos was not ready to hear the truth.

Itshankscorpio was wrong in two sports in one comment. Dodgers would win the World Series in 2020.

This is just a classic pre-Mahomes interaction. Raiders fan talking trash, Chiefs fan dishing it back, and then the dagger, 50 years of no Super Bowl. There's no come back to that. This was every online interaction before LIV.

This Raiders fan was complaining about seeing Arrowhead red...

And now the Chiefs won a Super Bowl in the Raiders stadium before they won a playoff game there. 

Bengals and Steelers fans talking about how Andy Reid will never get it done. Now there's only 2 head coaches with more rings than Reid. What a turnaround.

So a Broncos fan starts a thread shitting on the Chiefs. Chiefs fan responds saying hey ya know, we made it to the AFC Championship game, that's better than the Broncos. Then a Pats fan comes in and says the Broncos who didn't make the playoffs didn't lose, and people act like it's great. Insanity.

Some other Broncos fan replied back. Yep, don't need to sweat missing the playoffs when you won a Super Bowl in recent memory. The ultimate trump card played over and over.

This one just might be the best one. Travis Kelce who is now the most liked, most famous, dating the most famous in the world, hosting SNL, host of a popular podcast...this is a big insult from 5 years ago.

Just a ton of Broncos basking in the glow of Chiefs failure. And I get it, I did the same to the Broncos, especially after their Super Bowl Choke Job, it's what rivals do. It just makes it all the sweeter now, to look back and see how smug and superior the Broncos fans felt over the Chiefs before the KC dynasty started.

And then there was one comment that was the most prophetic of all...and it wasn't from a Chiefs fan. A Packers fan looked into the future and saw the potential. Six upvotes.

Allegretti's Toughness

Nick Allegretti is a offensive lineman on the Chiefs out of the University of Illinois. He's a depth piece, who gets into most games but not as a starter. 

In five years of regular season games, he's started 13 but played in 74. 9 of his 13 starts came in 2020 when the OL got decimated.

Here's his first four years of playoff stats.

If you look at the Special Team snaps column on the right, you can see he took the field in every playoff game from 2019-2022, including three Super Bowls. But if you look at the Offensive Snaps column, you can see the only games he got more than 2 snaps were the 2020 decimated line year. He played 100% of the snaps in the Super Bowl the Chiefs lost to the Bucs.

So he entered the 2023-2024 playoff run with two Super Bowl rings. But he had never played a full game at offensive line. 

In the Bills game, starting guard Joe Thuney got injured. They bring in Nick. Chiefs win. 

They have to go on the road to Baltimore. Nick gets the start. Chiefs win. 

Now Nick is going to be starting another Super Bowl at offensive line. Here's his chance to win a Super Bowl in the starting lineup. 

2nd quarter. Nick tears his UCL. The same injury that Brock Purdy suffered last year when he wasn't able to throw a ball. 

Somehow, Nick stays in the game. Plays every snap. Is blocking this ferocious defensive line with one hand. 

Allows only one sack all game. No holding penalties. 

There hasn't been a better performance by a one-armed man since The Fugitive.

I Wasn't There: Super Bowl LVIII Parade

I'd gone to the last two parades and they were great experiences, but I wasn't feeling it this year for a couple reasons. It's a busy week already with trying to capture all my thoughts here and take care of my work stuff and it's Valentine's Day too. Plus, with all the crowds, it does end up being a lot of standing around and waiting. But mostly, I had just done it last year, and gotten up close to Mahomes, Chris Jones among others. I didn't really feel like I could top it. 

I also didn't know if Swift was going to be there, and if she was thought the crowds might be too insane. Plus, I thought it would be kind of fun to watch on TV for a change and get better angles and hear the coverage, etc.

Unfortunately, this event had a tragic ending. I don't regret skipping this one. 

So I don't have any pictures of my own. But through the power of the internet, here are some of the pictures I found:

LVIII Mic'd Up

Here's the YouTube link for the Super Bowl LVIII Mic'd Up. It's a great video as always, but notably it doesn't include a few key moments. 

It doesn't include Kelce yelling in Reid's face and knocking him off-balance. Would have loved to get that moment unfiltered. 

It doesn't include Shanahan talking about should they go second in overtime, or going for it on 4th down in OT, or some of the other crucial decisions, the 3rd down, 4th down inside final 2 minutes of regulation. 

It doesn't include any of the family members and what they said to the players, which was one of the best parts of the LIV version. 

So what is in here? Well you get Bosa and Warner on the sideline talking about Kelce. 

Bosa's bragging about jamming him on the line. 

Warner says: "We gotta make his life miserable for four quarters. He's not built for that."

It also has Nick Bosa sucking oxygen right before overtime saying: 

I would never say this to his face because he could injure me forever with a light shove, but behind a keyboard and laptop...it's overtime in the Super Bowl. It's a tie game. You have a chance to go out there, make a play and become a world champion. 

Like I get that playing defense against Mahomes is tough, but if you don't think this situation is fun, I don't know, I guess you're not built for that.

- - -

It also has #31 in white saying that Mahomes is just a regular quarterback:

I didn't recognize who #31 was so I had to look it up. Tashaun Gipson. I hope I spelled it correctly, because I had never seen the name before. Me and him do have one thing in common, we both went undrafted out of college. 

Here's Gipson's career highlights and awards, since joining the NFL in 2013:

And here's the player he described as a regular quarterback:

So at the parade/rally yesterday, Brittany had to remind Patrick to call it out, that Patrick is just a regular quarterback.

Good stuff.

Playoff Overtime Rules

I've seen all the conversation around the strategy for the new NFL overtime rules in the playoffs. I think there's a clear way to go moving forward. But let's dive into each side. 

Advantage of Going First

If you score first, you can put the pressure that any turnover ends the game

If there's a third possession, it will be a tie game, and it's sudden death now and a field goal wins

Your defense gets a rest, particularly important if they were just on the field

Advantage of Going Second

You know exactly what you need, which turns the whole field into 4-down territory if you're trailing

Your defense has a chance to get a turnover or even force a punt to make it sudden death, where all you need is a field goal 

You know exactly what you need, so you could win with a field goal, you could win with a touchdown, you could win with a touchdown + PAT, you could win with a touchdown + 2pt

You have the luxury of going for two knowing it's a game winner...let me come back to that

- - -

Let's run through a few scenarios...

Scenario A

Go first and you get a touchdown. You have to choose to kick for one or go for two. Going for two is very risky. It doesn't guarantee the win as the other team will have a chance to match and if you fail the other team doesn't have to match, they can kick for one and win. That risk/reward ratio makes it unappealing to go for two. An aggressive coach could still do it, if their offense if much better than their defense, but the reward doesn't outweigh the risk. 

Scenario B

You're going second and you're trailing by 7, then you get a touchdown. Now the math is different. Going for two wins the game. Kicking for one gives the other team the ball with sudden death. The reward for going for two is much better and now kicking for one is tremendously risky. So if you're in this situation, you go for two. 

Now that we've run through scenarios A + B, we see that the chances of a third possession are a lot slimmer. (The 49ers could have had one if they stopped the Chiefs in the red zone and limited them to a field goal...but not if both teams scored a touchdown.)

If you look back at the advantages of going first, the pressure element was not really applicable to Mahomes and the third possession thing is also weak. The only real advantage would be to give your defense a rest, but that doesn't come close to the advantages of knowing what you need. 

Scenario C

You're the Chiefs and you're going first. You've got 4th and 4 from your own 31. Do you go for it? Fail and you give the ball to the 49ers in field goal territory. Or you could punt and pin them deep. It's a tie game, so pinning them deep doesn't seem so bad, right? The problem is you don't know what you need. You don't know what the 49ers will do on their possession, so you don't know if it's okay to punt the ball away or if it's worth the risk to go for it on 4th down. IF you had a magical crystal ball that could let you see the future of their next drive, then the call to punt or go for it would be easy. Choosing to receive second is that crystal ball. 

LVIII Twitter Stats

The Chiefs faced the hardest path ever to a Super Bowl title.

They beat the fastest team (Dolphins), hottest team (Bills), team with the MVP (Ravens), and the best team (49ers). 

- - -

This next one is pretty fun. The 2023 49ers were the 2nd toughest team to beat in the Super Bowl, behind only the 2007 undefeated Patriots. The third toughest? The 2019 49ers that the Chiefs came back to win over in LIV.

- - -

Hey remember this post from Week 7 when the Chiefs joined elite company for being top 5 in all three phases. Turns out that's pretty meaningful. They joined the last five teams that had achieved that as Super Bowl winners, dating back to the 1985 Chicago Bears.

Speaking of that good defense, here's a stat for them:

- - -

A lot of people have been saying that Kelce has lost a step. It would make sense. He was drafted in 2013 and he's 34. But on Sunday, he put up his fastest speed over the last seven seasons.

And here's one more that doesn't need any context:

Look, we have to talk about Taylor

It's been the elephant in the room all season, and I've avoided it completely. 

But it's time to talk about Taylor. 

All season this was the biggest story in the NFL. 

Would Taylor be a distraction? 

Could the Chiefs win with Taylor? 

If they didn't win the Super Bowl, would it be Taylor's fault?

They said it was going to be a distraction for Kelce if he was seen next to Taylor.

Some fan's were cursing Taylor's name, but week after week Taylor continued to show up, even in the playoffs.

And now that it's all over, I think it's safe to say that Taylor was a good luck charm. 

I'll say it: The Chiefs don't win the Super Bowl without Taylor. 

On the biggest stage, with millions around the world watching, Taylor stepped up and performed in a way on Sunday that every Chiefs fan could get behind: no holding calls, no false starts.